2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season aggregate): 39-34-1
2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'unit picks' aggregate differential): (+13)
2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'exotics' differential): (+3)
2011 NFL Picks (week 6): 5-5-2
2011 NFL (week 6 'unit picks' differential): (+3)
*all picks 'ATS' (against the spread)
2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'unit picks' aggregate differential): (+13)
2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'exotics' differential): (+3)
2011 NFL Picks (week 6): 5-5-2
2011 NFL (week 6 'unit picks' differential): (+3)
*all picks 'ATS' (against the spread)
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WEEK 6 NFL PICKS
BYE WEEK: Denver, Tennessee, Kansas City, Arizona, San Diego, Seattle
WEEK 6 PREVIEW: If I have something 'general' to say as a PREVIEW, I'll say it... If not, I don't say jack shit (& go right to the games)... I'll say 2 things here...
1. Above... Starting this week... I've begun to include my 2011 'aggregate' results... I don't generally start posting 'cumulative' numbers until about the time that the BCS bowl standings in college football come out... The NCAA has nothing to do with the NFL, but the BCS rankings come out at this time for a reason... They tend to 'smooth out' any 'week per week' bias (whereby a handicapper like myself may have had an awkardly bad, or excessively lucky week)...
I'm playing for FULL SEASON results... The shape of a football is a 'PROLATE SHPERIOD'... If you flunked high school geometry, don't worry... I'm here to tell you that if you bet on football based on your emotions, then your BANK ACCOUNT ought to soon reflect a relatively similar fundamental lack of respect for how prolate spheroids bounce from week to week (especially on Sundays in the fall - and all other variables tied to that outcome)...
2. Las Vegas Sportsbooks are a BUSINESS (much like, say, Wall Street or 'Broad Street' as the case may be)...
They'd have been out of business a long time ago if everything (for the public), was easy pickin's... Consider that angle EVERY WEEK if you ever decide to do anything like LEGAL sports wagering... This blog does not advocate ILLEGAL sports wagering, & cautions ANYONE who likes to engage in the LEGAL sort for entertainment, to do it with restraint & respect...
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| Duke & Duke HQ - Philadelphia - This is how we roll |
They'd have been out of business a long time ago if everything (for the public), was easy pickin's... Consider that angle EVERY WEEK if you ever decide to do anything like LEGAL sports wagering... This blog does not advocate ILLEGAL sports wagering, & cautions ANYONE who likes to engage in the LEGAL sort for entertainment, to do it with restraint & respect...
Any given week, the slate of games may or may not have a tilt towards one direction or another... There are only TWO directions...
- The PATRONS
- The HOUSE
In the end, the HOUSE always wins (many times, simply by the 10% 'margins' they collect on INCORRECT bets)...
As an 'enthusiast', I always like to look at the aggregate slate of games to try & determine which side has the advantage (Not from a 'game for game' perspective - but from a WEEKLY 'slate for slate' perspective)... The linesmakers have SOME control of this (after all - it is THEY who set the betting lines)... But REALLY it is the PUBLIC who is the judge & jury...
The jury is often WRONG (as with POLITICS)... It's laughably easy to understand this when you see that Americans had the capacity to put a George Bush or Barack Obama in office... Then realize that their 'justification' for doing so, in retrospect, (aka - "Monday morning quarterbacking")... was based on some silly idea that John McCain, or John Kerry, or Al Gore might have been worse)...
I've heard the term "mental masturbation" used many times by geniuses around the globe... Anyway - in politics, they seem to take those ideas to the extreme...
In football... THANKFULLY... Correct & Incorrect decisions tend to be much more BRACKETED with respect to the ramifications of bad choices... Somebody wins... Somebody loses... The results are entered into the LEDGER... & everybody moves on... People in future generations generally aren't expected to pay for the bad choices (sometimes referred to as 'debt') from the past... More importantly... Nothing is done on credit & leverage is practically non-existent... This is a CASH BUSINESS... It's probably the only remaining TRUE venue of market capitalism left on the planet (unless, of course, Carl Cheffers, Scott Green, or Clete Blakeman & their crews are officiating - whereby you might as well just toss your worthless dollars into the ring along with Chicago politics, "K street", or any of the "merc" exchanges on the planet)...
I say this because the PUBLIC (in this week 6 - TO ME), seems pretty enthralled with some teams that either Vegas (or the sportswriters - who EQUAL the regular WHORE news media [imho]) have managed to "sell the package" (at this juncture) as to who the FLAVOR OF THE DAY teams are & these notions are reflected in the betting biases...
When these moments arrive, I go back to my fundamentals... My fundamentals are always based on what my PRE-SEASON PICKS were... Readers of this blog will know that My FINAL FOUR (so to speak) were: Patriots, Saints, Packers, & Ravens... I really didn't care about 'Dream Teams' or the like... I looked at the variables & I made my choices... I'm sticking to those choices...
So we arrive at a week like this (where everyone wants to try out the new COMBO MEAL)... They want to know about the Lions, the Bills, the Raiders, the Texans... They want to know if they're 'legit'... I don't bother with that (because it's a smaller part of my AGGREGATE calculations - which - as stated above - I don't usually start advertising until around the time that the BCS rankings come out)... Was I right (pre-season)? was I wrong? What adjustments need to be made? Who is BTE? Who is worse? Who is having bad luck? Who is getting lucky?... Who has the discipline & culture to overcome?... Who doesn't?...
To put it in to mathematics, a football season is 16 games (which could be broken up into 4 'quarters', [as they do the games themselves])... We're in week 6 here, which basically means we're barely in to the 2nd quarter (some teams have not had bye weeks yet, 12 out of 32 teams will have after this weekend)... In a football game, ANY team can come back from a 1st quarter hole (or LOSE IT - as the case may be)... But the dynamic here is that you have to have a certain CHARACTER of a team (not to mention quality) to overcome a hole you've dug for yourself...
I feel that that is playing in to the 'game lines' that the public are jumping all over this week... As mentioned above... I MAY BE RIGHT, OR I MAY BE WRONG about this (but it is simply my opinion as an 'interested' author of a blog who has studied these dynamics over a long period of time & is trying to offer my best FREE ADVICE on the subject)...
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUmP-aS0fYM Friday night I crashed your party Saturday I said I'm sorry Sunday came and trashed it out again I was only having fun Wasn't hurting anyone And we all enjoyed the weekend for a change I've been stranded in the combat zone I walked through Bedford Stuy alone Even rode my motorcycle in the rain And you told me not to drive But I made it home alive So you said that only proves that I'm insane You may be right I may be crazy But it just might be a lunatic you're looking for Turn out the light Don't try to save me You may be wrong for all I know But you may be right Remember how I found you there Alone in your electric chair I told you dirty jokes until you smiled You were lonely for a man I said take me as I am 'Cause you might enjoy some madness for a while Now think of all the years you tried to Find someone to satisfy you I might be as crazy as you say If I'm crazy then it's true That it's all because of you And you wouldn't want me any other way You may be right I may be crazy But it just may be a lunatic you're looking for It's too late to fight It's too late to change me You may be wrong for all I know But you may be right You may be right I may be crazy But it just may be a lunatic you're looking for Turn out the light Don't try to save me You may be wrong for all I know You may be right You may be wrong but you may be right (x6, fades away) |
So before we get to the 'games' themselves... Take a look at the numbers... There are 13 games in the NFL schedule this weekend... That's an ODD number... Depending the AMOUNT of the bets on each week, generally Vegas needs a 7-6 or even 6-7 number to profit (because of the juice they collect)... You're OPPOSITE to that dynamic... 8-5 is going to be a HUGE week for 'either/or' (using that calculus)... Vegas can OFTEN mop up the residuals based on the 'exotic bets' (mis-played teasers & the like)...
I just feel (imho - based on years of 'johnny gut feel' in this area) that it's a week to stick close to the house... HERE - I'm going to identify my top prospects of games going THE WAY AGAINST THE HOUSE (not in order)... Which basically means that APART from these games, you ought to wade delicately into those waters...
Packers, Ravens, Saints (notice how I 'cleverly' included 3 of my top 4 'final four' teams there), Steelers...
The rest are up for grabs IMO... Public 'mindlessly' cajoled... Profits locked... Read on for further minute discrepancies, but beware... This is a week in my 'johnny gut feel' existence that I'd caution more emotional based types to stay far from the teller windows if they lack the capacity to think in long term dynamical aggregates (and/or are 'soon to be schooled' neophytes when it comes to the concept of market control)...
Otherwise... Ask an economist who they think will thinks will COVER in the Raiders vs. Browns... None of them probably have ever heard of Carl Cheffers (& vice versa - of course)... Which is an area where ALL THINGS become interesting...
EARLY GAMES
San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions (1:00 EDT)
Line: Lions by 5
So the Lions are 5-0 for the first thing since 1956 (& the Sid Luckman era - or Eisenhower, as the case may be)... Yes indeed, they're a fine looking bunch of men...
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| "How's it going Eisenhower?"... |
The thing that worried me most about that game, ironically, was the officiating... I made THIS COMMENT prior to that game regarding that dynamic...
"Really hate doing this, but I'm going to take the BEARS for (0 units)... (Partly because Clete Blakeman is the ref, so I expect yellow flags galore)..."
That is precisely the reason that Sunday & Monday Night Football games make me nervous... I usually only side with the PUBLIC in those games if Vegas has their profits from the week securely in hand... As it turns out... My prediction was correct (as the Bears were flagged for 'false starts' 9x in the first quarter)... Most people say that it was the Detroit 'crowd noise' that was the culprit, but I've reviewed NFL ref 'Clete Blakeman's' record & he & his crew are truly flag happy... John Gruden was getting annoyed in the ESPN Booth by all the play stoppage...
Anyway, the 'carryover' into this game ought to be that the Lions [crowd], has discovered (at least they THINK) that they can take over a game... Maybe it's a little true, but sometimes you just have to go to "X"'s & "O's"... The Lions have played the Bucs, Chiefs, Vikings, Cowboys, & Bears... In ALL of those games (except the Chiefs), the Lions trailed at some point (most notably vs. the Vikings & Cowboys where they were down by 3 scores in the 2nd half... Even vs. the Chiefs (which was a 48-3 blowout on a day that the Chiefs lost Jamaal Charles, Matt Cassel was playing with an injured foot, & safety Eric Berry had been lost for the season the week before), the Lions mainly ran-up points in the 4th quarter...
The point is, the Lions have thus far had a tendency to start slow (which may or may not be a problem for a 5-0 team, but it bears mentioning)...
If you ask me, the 49ers are more of a surprising story in the NFL this year... Remember, the Lions beat the Tampa Bay Bucs in week 1 by a score of 27-20, but the 49ers hung their own 48-3 score on the same Bucs just last week... Sure, the 49ers were playing at home, but they had just been on the East Coast for the prior two weeks (beating the Eagles & Bengals)... I can't say how 'saucy' the 49ers 4-1 record is... They beat a hapless Seahawks team in week 1 (which has gotten better)... The Bengals are better than expected, then they have wins over the Bucs who aren't too bad, & the Eagles who actually ARE bad... Their only loss came at the hands of the Cowboys (who had to engineeer a miracle comeback of their own with a hobbled Tony Romo)...
Statistically, the 49ers defense is playing well, & Jim Harbaugh seems to be getting the best out of Alex Smith (who is protecting the ball better)... The Lions have been guilty of giving up rushing yardages, so this sets up for a game that might stay close well in to the 2nd half... I'd count on the 49ers to play a little better defense than what the Lions have encountered thus far...
So I'm taking the 49ERS for (2 units) in this spot... (Ironically, the last time the Lions went 5-0 to start the season, they played the 49ers in week 6)...
St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers (1:00 EDT)
Line: Packers by 14
Everybody aboard the Packers express, right? Laying two touchdowns (at home) versus the lowly (& still 'winless') Rams... Hell, the Pack can cover that spread in the first 7 minutes right?
My main question is why is this line ONLY 15?... It ought to be closer to 20 (so why is Vegas trying to attract even more $$ to the Pack)... EXACTLY... So far it's working (as about 79% of the money is with the Packers)...
I don't want to go into all the match-ups because bottom line, the Rams don't have the assets to go toe to toe (in any aspect of the game) with the Packers... The Rams will win some games this year, but they have had probably the most brutal schedule of any team to start the season... I think they're just hoping to stay alive until they can get to playing their division foes (Seahawks, 49ers, & Cardinals)...
About the best 'hope' for the Rams here is that the Packers might not be firing at 100% after losing all-pro left tackle Chad Clifton to a hamstring injury last week... Maybe they can cause a fumble or two (as both Ryan Grant & James Starks have coughed up the ball in recent weeks)... Oddly, in a few games, the Packers (like the Lions) have gotten off to slow starts... They were down 14-0 vs. the Falcons last Sunday Night and were down to Carolina earlier in the year... However, both of those games were on the road (& this is Lambeau Field)...
I'd love to go with the Vegas angle & take the Rams with the points, but I just can't go against Aaron Rodgers at this moment...
PACKERS for (2 units)...
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EDT)
Line: Falcons by 3.5
I predicted at the beginning of the season that the Falcons would be one of the more 'overrated' teams in the NFL this year... At 2-3, maybe I've 'converted' some souls... I wish I hadn't been so GUTLESS though (because in the PRE-preseason, I picked the Lions & Cowboys to make the playoffs & the Falcons & Eagles MISSING the playoffs)... Then I let myself get talked in to this historical Falcons-Eagles playoff history (& the whole Michael Vick thing) & lost focus on my idea of straight "W"'s & "L"'s... my bad...
The Falcons could still turn it around here, but their season is slipping away quickly... I mean, the 'apologists' were quick to point out the LOSS to the Bears & the WIN vs. Eagles (but we've learned since then that both those teams stink)... They let the Bucs get the better of them (including a horrible drive extending offsides on the defense when they let themselves get faked out by a hard count in an obvious situation)... They almost let Tavaris Jackson come back to beat them in Seattle...
The Panthers seem like a motivated team under new head coach Ron Rivera... I criticized Cam Newton (after week 1) for 'smiling' after a loss to the Cardinals... Well, Newton keeps putting up MONSTER fantasy numbers & the great thing is, is that he's not smiling anymore... He GETS IT now... He wants to WIN & that is obvious in the "never quit" on the field play & even in the post game interviews...
Speaking of which... There was a cheap hit (by Roman Harper of the Saints) in Steve Smith last week in the end zone after a touchdown (which basically resulted in a fight)... After the game, Panther coach Ron Rivera defended his players, basically saying "yeah... you do something tacky to us & we're going to fight back"...
The Panthers have left tackle Jeff Otah back in the line-up (which helps a running game that had been non-existent until last week)... Atlanta really has a lot of problems on defense, so I don't see how the Panthers will have terrible problems coming back from any mistakes & putting points on the board... If anything, the Falcons may be worse for the wear on offense as Julio Jones came up limping in the 4th quarter of the Packers game last week with a hamstring injury...
I kind of relish taking the PANTHERS for (4 units)...
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EDT)
Line: Bengals by 4.5
Last week I made a big to do about Colts owner Robert Irsay... I told the story of him moving the Colts out of Baltimore (in the middle of a snowy February night in a moving van) and on out to Indianapolis...
I told of his history with having been snubbed by John Elway & how I always thought that played on his 'psyche'... So after bad experiments with the Jeff George's of the world, he finally got his team SUCKING enough to get the first pick at the right time to draft Peyton Manning (& the rest is history)...
Well... Low & behold... THIS WEEK, Irsay makes a comment on Yahoo Sports where he basically says "Yes - if we had an opportunity to take Andrew Luck in the draft - we'd do so"...
You've got Peyton Manning who has shown a football disposition that I'm more than sure he'd be willing to help groom someone like Andrew Luck... Sportswriters were all over this story this week making the obvious comparisons to Brett Favre & Aaron Rodgers... But let's face it... Brett Favre is an egomanic who wasn't in to helping Rodgers very much at all... Rodgers learned probably mostly on his own...
Anyway, the point here is more along the lines that I think Bob Irsay is a CREEP... I wouldn't put it past him for one second to effectively have his team "mail in" the rest of the games (after having lost to Kansas City last week) to put him in the running for Andrew Luck...
Think of it this way... The "winless" teams in the NFL are the Dolphins, Rams, & Colts... The 1-4 teams are Jacksonville, Denver, Arizona, Carolina, Minnesota, & Philadelphia...
OK... process of elimination... Philly still thinks they're good & just wasted their money locking Michael Vick for a couple of years (while sending Kevin Kolb to Az)... With idiots like that running a franchize, I doubt they even know who Andrew Luck is...
Carolina drafted Can Newton #1 last year (& I'm sure they're liking what they're seeing - furthermore, I think they'll win some games this year)... Arizona is going to build around Kolb... Minnesota drafted Christian Ponder in the first round & just gave a huge contract to Adrian Peterson so wouldn't have the cash to sign Luck... Plus, they're better than their 1-4 record says, & they'll win some games...
Denver is TRICKY... I'm sure GM John Elway would just LOVE to get Andrew Luck (which is probably why this Tim Tebow thing is getting started so quickly)... I still wouldn't be surprised to see Kyle Orton get dealt to Miami at the end of the season (which would allow Miami to go in another direction &/or change draft positions)... Bottom line is that I don't see Andrew Luck in Miami...
Perthaps another team I'm not mentioning here is Seattle... But they just won their 2nd game (which could conceivably put them out of the running)... Probably 2-14 is going to get you the #1 pick... I have half a mind that Pete Carroll might just wait for Carson Palmer to sit out this year and make him an offer in the off season to come to Seattle...
So you're basically down to Jacksonville, the Rams, & the Colts... Jacksonville drafted Blaine Gabbert last year (who is starting), & the Rams took Sam Bradford with a #1 pick 2 years ago... Anyway, the Rams will win some games (because I still think they fancy their chances in the NFC West, despite being 0-4)... Jacksonville is in the Colts division (so guess what? the Colts DUMP twice)...
The Colts (after Cincy here)... still have to play the Saints (next week) & besides the two games against Jacksonville in the division, play the Tennessee Titans twice (who might have their eye on winning the division) & Houston once more (who are in the same spot)... They also will face a desperate Falcons team, a motivated Panthers team, plus New England & Baltimore (both on the road) who will be gunning for #1 & #2 seeds in the AFC (which were my PRE-SEASON predictions)...
So look... You heard it here first... I'm awful convinced that it's going to come down to Irsay vs. John Elway again... But perhaps this time the roles are reversed... IOW - Irsay gets retribution over John Elway by the Colts sneaking in just under the Broncos in the win column... & Irsay denies Elway of getting his fellow 'Stanford' guy Andrew Luck...
Paybacks a bitch...
I imagine that the team will "get the memo" (maybe they already have as early as this week)... The Bengals probably still think they have a shot at something & they're not that bad on defense or running the football (areas which match up well vs. the Colts)...
It's a lot of points, but I'm going to go with the BENGALS here for (1 unit)...
Buffalo Bills at New York Giants (1:00 EDT)
Line: Giants by 3
Most of the comments I'm hearing from the 'sharps' are with regards to Tom Coughlin's record as a Giants head coach the week AFTER they blow a mysterious game, and the week BEFORE the Giants go on a BYE week... He has a pretty good record (which would favor taking the Giants in this spot)...
The PUBLIC... otoh... tend to listen to the hack sportscasters on ESPN, CBS, NFL.com who are generally just 'parrot' each others comments... As such, 78% of the $$ thus far is on the visiting Bills getting the COMFY 3.5 line here... 3.5 is a real psychological number in football games for obvious reasons... It either 'gives' you, or 'removes from you' a sense of security depending on which side you favor...
Frankly, it's really not all that sinister (all the time)... I have to constantly remind people that the line generally shifts 3 points in favor of the home team... Which in this case, makes one ask themselves IF the Giants are a half point better than the Bills...
That's a better question (which is why it PUZZLES me that 78% of the public is siding with the Bills)... I perceive the teams to be about even... There are quite a few, I'll call them 'mismatch-ups' in this game... Too numerous to go into detail about... But that's what makes it interesting... Here's what I'll focus on (most of these are things that I pick apart when I hear the analysts give the dimestore analysis on TV)...
I hear about the Bills 12 (thus far in 2011) being a key factor... OK, but I suppose that projects out to 2+ per game (which means that since they have 11 more games, they're going to have 34-36 by the end of the season)?... I don't think so... Generally speaking, a team needs a lot of luck to be that opportunistic... 28 is a very good year for most defenses... & think of this... They intercepted Tom Brady 4 times & Mike Vick 4 times... You don't 'skillfully' intercept those guys 4 times each... Instead, you are the beneficiary of a lot of crazy tipped balls & you're opportunistic... I can't say I trust Eli Manning more than I do the other two, but here's an angle... Giant defensive coordinator Perry Fewell was DC in Buffalo for the past few years (plus a short stint at head coach)... With the Giants here, he might be able to work with the offensive unit in a way to minimize mistakes based on what he knows to be the tendencies of the Bills coverage packages... Eli Manning is going to have to be smart & not take too many chances... The funny thing is, the Bills secondary, despite the interceptions, gives up a ton of yards... Brady threw for almost 400 yards in the aforementioned game... Vick (despite the interceptions) was finding open receivers all over the place & even Andy Dalton & Jason Campbell put up huge numbers against the Bills...
The Bills have showed that they can keep up offensively (using a balanced attack with Fred Jackson having a career year & Ryan Fitzpatrick putting up solid passing numbers)... The Giants have been leaky at run stoppage & their secondary is still in shambles, but they get Justin Tuck back this week & Perry Fewell can always go to the Giants players falling down faking injuries all over the field if the going gets tough with the Bills no huddle spread... Plus, Clete Blakeman (from last Monday Night's Beras-Lions game) & his crew get to officiate this game... Since flags ought to be flying all over the field, it'll give the Giants ample time to catch their breath on defense so they Giants can spend the week practicing (instead of attending acting classes)... I keep waiting for it to become like soccer where a trainer runs out on the field with the 'magic spray'...
Anyway, hard to really decisively pick here, but I think the 'sharps' have it over the public...
I'll go with the GIANTS for (1 unit)...
I'll go with the GIANTS for (1 unit)...
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 EDT)
Line: Steelers by 12.5
I guess the public thinks that if the Steelers can toss 5 TD passes on the Tennessee Titans, they can do the same to Jags (who battled the Titans closely in week 1)...
The bottom line is this... The Steelers still have major issues on the offensive line... While they may have the services of Rashard Mendenhall for this game, he still hasn't proved that he's going to have any explosion at the line of scrimmage... He's spending too much time dancing around looking for holes... Rothleisberger (aka - that dude in that OPERATION game) is still in a boot & their defense is still without Jerome Harrison & is yet a week 'older'...
Perhaps none of that matters at Heinz Field (which will be a tough place to play for rookie QB Blaine Gabbert who has the worst passing numbers of any NFL QB at the moment)... The bright spot for the Jags this year has been Maurice Jones Drew, but I doubt that will be enough to overcome the Steelers... The public has, in a lukewarm way, gotten back on the side of the Steelers here after the blowout victory last week... I wouldn't trust them quite yet, but I trust the Jags even less...
I'll go with the STEELERS for (0 units)...
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (1:00 EDT)
Line: Eagles by 3
I'm not one to tease the 'mathematical gods'... Only 3% of teams, in the modern playoff era, that have started (1-4), where the Eagles find themselves now, have gone on to make the playoffs...
You even had Michael Vick saying in a press conference this week about how he's TIRED of all the 'Dream Team' talk... Yup dude, that's what FAILURE does...
- Go ask Le Bron
- Go ask the Boston Red Sox
- Go ask Obama
Amazingly though... 71% of the public are LAYING points with the Eagles ON THE ROAD in this matchup... UFB... This isn't going to be a high unit play for me, but there's no way that I'd side with the Eagles here... Sure, there's the 'desperation' factor... A loss here would almost certainly put the nail in the coffin as far as making the post season this year is concerned...
But then you start running into a lot of other dynamics... Namely - teams that find themselves in a MUST WIN situation are generally teams that suck in the first place (ask the Red Sox - ask the Braves - ask Obama)... I'd almost rather have the Redskins (who are not in a must win), but who have the motivational prospect of erasing the debacle on Monday Night Football (vs. the Eagles), which thrust Michael Vick back into all the limelight (deserved or not) that has happened since...
I always maintained that Vick basically had ONE GOOD GAME (which was that Monday Night game)... It even prompted a call from the teleprompter in chief...
The Redskins would love to erase the memory of that game with a statement win here... & despite 'must wins'... Well - it was the Cowboys, last year, who were so loaded with talent & were going to go to the SuperBowl in their own stadium last year (before dropping 7 out of their first 8 games)...
I get the feeling that the nail has to go in the coffin here as well... People will forget about the Dream Team Eagles & Vick as quickly as they dumped LeBron for Dirk Nowitzsky, or the Red Sox for whoever... There are INTERESTING stories out there... Nobody wants to dwell on an over hyped LOSER...
I'll go with the REDSKINS for (2 units)...
LATE GAMES
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (4:05 EDT)
Line: Ravens by 7
I've often talked about LUCK as being a huge factor in teams making it deep into a season or postseason... The Ravens have had their share of BAD luck over the years (with bad officiating, or any kind of other confounding things that seem to conspire & work against a team while favoring others)...
All sports are probably like that (golf comes to mind)...
This year, the Ravens seem to be having some luck on their side... Their schedule (besides being 'softer' than in most years), also seems to be weaving its way whereby they face what could be considered 'good' teams when they're most vulnerable... They faced Pittsburgh in week 1 when the Steelers were clearly not prepared... They faced an otherwise moderately talented Rams team (which was decimated with injuries at the time)... & they've since tacked on a win vs. the Jets while the Jets were clearly not at their best...
Now they face Houston who is having a BAD LUCK season as we speak... They lost Arian Foster for a few weeks (but managed to hang on with some good play from Ben Tate... But they have since lost Andre Johnson (out for probably another week or two), & last week lost their best player on defense (Mario Williams) for the season with a torn pectoral...
I don't want to bring 'injuries' into an argument about style of play, but it seems to me that the character of a team is magnified when injuries occur... Some teams & players step up... others don't...
Somebody is going to have to FILL SHOES in Houston... After week 1 (& after it was determined that the Colts lost Peyton Manning for the season), it appeared that the AFC South was the Texans to "win or lose"...
But lo & behold... Yours truly wrote at the beginning of the seasons that the Texans are a mediocre squad that always seems to find a way to mess things up enough to go 8-8... As I said, I don't want to bring 'injuries' into that equation, but doesn't it just seem to FIT... Finally they get their chance to have a division title handed to them on a silver platter, & the next thing you know, all their key players are dropping like flies... Is it 'psychopsomatic'?... I dunno...
The Ravens, OTOH, are a class team that always seems to find a way to overcome adversity... I can't say that they EMBRACE good fortune (mainly because until now, I can't remember many instances of good fortune)...
But anyway... Right here, right now, it's the Texans that have some demon to defeat... The Ravens are fresh off their BYE week... They're not looking ahead (because they have Jacksonville next week in a Monday Night game)... They're feeling good because they've had 2 weeks to savor the victory over the rival Jets...
It's going to take something beyond my powers of comprehension to make me imagine the Texans can come into M&T Bank Stadium and deal a blow to the Ravens... Matt Schaub typically has problems facing 3-4 defenses... so...
I'll take the RAVENS for (3 units)...
I've often talked about LUCK as being a huge factor in teams making it deep into a season or postseason... The Ravens have had their share of BAD luck over the years (with bad officiating, or any kind of other confounding things that seem to conspire & work against a team while favoring others)...
All sports are probably like that (golf comes to mind)...
This year, the Ravens seem to be having some luck on their side... Their schedule (besides being 'softer' than in most years), also seems to be weaving its way whereby they face what could be considered 'good' teams when they're most vulnerable... They faced Pittsburgh in week 1 when the Steelers were clearly not prepared... They faced an otherwise moderately talented Rams team (which was decimated with injuries at the time)... & they've since tacked on a win vs. the Jets while the Jets were clearly not at their best...
Now they face Houston who is having a BAD LUCK season as we speak... They lost Arian Foster for a few weeks (but managed to hang on with some good play from Ben Tate... But they have since lost Andre Johnson (out for probably another week or two), & last week lost their best player on defense (Mario Williams) for the season with a torn pectoral...
I don't want to bring 'injuries' into an argument about style of play, but it seems to me that the character of a team is magnified when injuries occur... Some teams & players step up... others don't...
Somebody is going to have to FILL SHOES in Houston... After week 1 (& after it was determined that the Colts lost Peyton Manning for the season), it appeared that the AFC South was the Texans to "win or lose"...
But lo & behold... Yours truly wrote at the beginning of the seasons that the Texans are a mediocre squad that always seems to find a way to mess things up enough to go 8-8... As I said, I don't want to bring 'injuries' into that equation, but doesn't it just seem to FIT... Finally they get their chance to have a division title handed to them on a silver platter, & the next thing you know, all their key players are dropping like flies... Is it 'psychopsomatic'?... I dunno...
The Ravens, OTOH, are a class team that always seems to find a way to overcome adversity... I can't say that they EMBRACE good fortune (mainly because until now, I can't remember many instances of good fortune)...
But anyway... Right here, right now, it's the Texans that have some demon to defeat... The Ravens are fresh off their BYE week... They're not looking ahead (because they have Jacksonville next week in a Monday Night game)... They're feeling good because they've had 2 weeks to savor the victory over the rival Jets...
It's going to take something beyond my powers of comprehension to make me imagine the Texans can come into M&T Bank Stadium and deal a blow to the Ravens... Matt Schaub typically has problems facing 3-4 defenses... so...
I'll take the RAVENS for (3 units)...
Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders (4:05 EDT)
Line: Raiders by 7
RIP Al Davis... The Raiders won out of the division finally, but might be in a bad spot here... Last weeks road win in Houston was, of course, emotional (because of the death of Al Davis the day before)...
What's compounding that is the fact that the game went down the final play, & that the Raiders were playing the role of underdogs...
I hate them reversing that dynamic & having to lay almost a touchdown to a Browns team coming off a BYE week & has time to gameplan... The Browns have made a few changes in their starting line-up as Greg Little is replacing Brian Robiskie as the "X" (sometimes referred to as 'slot' receiver)... The move was unexplained, but perhaps it largely has to do with the fact that a number of 'rookies' this year in the NFL have stepped up and are making contributions (Cam Newton, Julio Jones, AJ Green, & even Titus Young come to mind)... Anyway, the Browns are basically weak in the wideout areas so Fritz Shurmer might want to give Colt McCoy some more options... It's interesting that David Nelson (BILLS), Kevin Walter (HOU), & Wes Welker (NE) all had TD catches vs. the Raiders (& otherwise 'high targets')... Of course, it's like that every week for Welker, but he was especially utilized vs. the Raiders... The Raiders also played the Broncos & Jets... Brandon Lloyd played the same "X" receiver in that game, & as for the Jets, while they typically don't play that kind of set, they did for that game by putting Ladainian Tomlinson out in the slot on a lot of plays (& he came up huge - albeit in a loss)...
Perhaps all of these coaches have found a weakness to exploit in the Raider defense (who are without Nnamdi Asomugha this year - you know - he's playing for that 'Dream Team')...
Peyton Hillis ought to be back at 100% for the Browns in this game & perhaps this is a chance to (at least for one game), overturn the MADDEN CURSE on the field that Madden used to coach...
Carl Cheffers is the ref here... I've often done well taking 'dogs' when he's roaming around looking for calls to make/miss...
I'm going with the BROWNS as a (5 unit) play here...
What's compounding that is the fact that the game went down the final play, & that the Raiders were playing the role of underdogs...
I hate them reversing that dynamic & having to lay almost a touchdown to a Browns team coming off a BYE week & has time to gameplan... The Browns have made a few changes in their starting line-up as Greg Little is replacing Brian Robiskie as the "X" (sometimes referred to as 'slot' receiver)... The move was unexplained, but perhaps it largely has to do with the fact that a number of 'rookies' this year in the NFL have stepped up and are making contributions (Cam Newton, Julio Jones, AJ Green, & even Titus Young come to mind)... Anyway, the Browns are basically weak in the wideout areas so Fritz Shurmer might want to give Colt McCoy some more options... It's interesting that David Nelson (BILLS), Kevin Walter (HOU), & Wes Welker (NE) all had TD catches vs. the Raiders (& otherwise 'high targets')... Of course, it's like that every week for Welker, but he was especially utilized vs. the Raiders... The Raiders also played the Broncos & Jets... Brandon Lloyd played the same "X" receiver in that game, & as for the Jets, while they typically don't play that kind of set, they did for that game by putting Ladainian Tomlinson out in the slot on a lot of plays (& he came up huge - albeit in a loss)...
Perhaps all of these coaches have found a weakness to exploit in the Raider defense (who are without Nnamdi Asomugha this year - you know - he's playing for that 'Dream Team')...
Peyton Hillis ought to be back at 100% for the Browns in this game & perhaps this is a chance to (at least for one game), overturn the MADDEN CURSE on the field that Madden used to coach...
Carl Cheffers is the ref here... I've often done well taking 'dogs' when he's roaming around looking for calls to make/miss...
I'm going with the BROWNS as a (5 unit) play here...
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots (4:15 EDT)
Line: Patriots by 6.5
The Cowboys are coming off a BYE week and should regain the services of Miles Austin & Dez Bryant... I gotta say that I think the Cowboys have impressed me thus far this season with gutty performances... They have not played the easiest of schedules (Jets, 49ers, Redskins, Lions)... They're 2-2 (but could easily be 4-0)... Likewise, they could easily be 0-4... That's why it's important to look at the quality of competitiveness and not just the W-L records when you look at teams...
The Cowboys are ranked #1 in the NFL in rushing defense (did you know that)?... They're also ranked a respectable #14 vs. the pass (& it's not like they've faced slouches - being that the Lions can ruin your pass defense stats in just one game)... They're still banged up in their defensive secondary (of which, most are aware, which is why the public doesn't mind getting behind Tom Brady & the Patriots in this spot)...
However, I go back to one particular instance last year... The Patriots lost 2 games in the regular season... One was to the 'Rex Ryan' Jets... & the other was to the Cleveland Browns (who had Rex's brother 'Rob Ryan' as defensive coordinator at the time)... Rob Ryan is... you guessed it... Now the defensive coordinator of the Cowboys...
One of the things that Rob Ryan did to confuse Brady last year (where they fell to the Browns), was to employ a 'walk-up' style of defense (something that 'Rex Ryan' started while he was defensive coordinator for the Ravens before he got the Jets head coaching job)... The Ravens almost beat the Patriots on a Monday Night game in that season when the Patriots went undefeated... The Ravens were ALSO the only team to win a playoff game in Foxboro Stadium until Rex Ryan's Jets did the same last year)... I can't see how anybody can just dismiss those realities without giving them consideration... Basically, he ('they' - Rex & brother Rob)... had most of the front 8 of linebackers & defensive line just walking around on defense while Brady was getting the offense to come to the line & trying to make the reads... It worked pretty well... It's further interesting that the Cowboys are coming off a BYE week here (& therefore may have had some time to get some more reps out of different blitz maneuvers)... I'm pretty sure that Brady & Belchick have studied a lot of tape from the same game & maybe have an answer for what might be coming (or do some adjustments at halftime)...
In any case, I think this is going to set up for a real interesting game of 'cat & mouse'... The Patriots have scored 30 or more points now in 14 straight NFL games (which ties an NFL record)... It's not likely that they're going to miss a chance to surpass that mark (which means that the Cowboys are going to have to do something on offense... With Miles Austin & Dez Bryant back in the line-up (& with the Patriots ranked dead last in the NFL vs. the pass), I'm pretty sure they'll be able to keep up (vis a vis - Phil Rivers)...
I make the comparison (Rivers - Romo) because of the following (a point I'd made earlier in the year)... A team with a top 6 QB, you ought to take as 7 point dogs on any occasion)... That 'system' backfired for me earlier this year when I took the Chargers (here in Foxboro) against the Pats & the Pats covered... However, that "cover" was mainly due to a bogus TD by the Pats at the end of the game when they should have been just running out the clock... I sort of don't blame Belchick for 'going for it' there (as the Chargers are an AFC team - & playoff seedings can be decided by tiebreakers at the end of the year)... Both the Pats & Chargers are 4-1 as we speak... The Cowboys ARE NOT an AFC team... I'm not saying the same might or might not occur... Just saying...
The REAL factor is whether one thinks Tony Romo is a TOP 6 QB or not... I've personally made the case that he IS NOT... But hold on... The Cowboys rank #3 in offensive passing yards this year (& in this game, they'll have full weaponry with Austin & Bryant)... I basically think that those two COVER UP for Romo (which inches him closer to a TOP 6) consideration... Furthermore, this combo is going against the worst ranked passing defense in the NFL...
Bottom line... I TOOK the dynamic with the Chargers earlier this year (& got unjustly shaved on it)... So I'll wheel it out once more before abandoning it...
I'll take the COWBOYS for (3 units)...
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4:15 EDT)
Line: Saints by 6.5
Bucs are having a hard time scoring points this year & LaGarrette Blount (knee injury), will be replaced by Earnest Graham (who will probably pop a hammy before halftime)... The Bucs also lost top draft pick Gerald McCoy which is a huge defensive weapon to lose facing the Saints...
The Bucs are coming off a 45 point debacle vs. the 49ers last week... That's usually a good place to take a team who is getting points, but the Bucs have shown a strange tendency to not play so well at home...
I still think the Saints are on a mission this year & I'm still taking them to go to the Superbowl in Indy... I don't like laying 4.5 points here (which would be like saying they were 10.5 point favorites if the game were in the Superdome (vs. a division rival)... But the Saints, I think, also have a "shut the door" type mentality... I think head coach Sean Payton knows he has a huge opportunity RIGHT HERE/RIGHT NOW... In the NFC South, the Falcons are floundering, the PANTHERS are up & coming (yet 1-4 as we speak), and it is these BUCS that they have to show the door...
It might be similar to when the Ravens played the Steelers in week 1 where you get a team on the mat then pin them down...
I'll take the SAINTS for (2 units)...
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (8:20 EDT - NBC)
Line: Bears by 3
Game comments & pick to be published before Sunday... Leaning towards a xxx unit play on the Vikings...
I'll take the VIKINGS for (0 units)...
I'll take the VIKINGS for (0 units)...
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (8:30 EDT - ESPN)
Line: Jets by 7
Game comments & pick to be published before Sunday... Leaning towards a medium unit play on the Dolphins...
Pick change (Sunday action concedes no particular favorite in this sopt)
I'll take the
