Friday, October 14, 2011

Fantasy Sports Nation - Week 7 NCAA Picks

2011 NCAA Picks (aggregate [weeks 1-6]): 39-39-0
2011 NCAA Picks (aggregate 'unit picks' differential): +0
2011 NCAA Picks (week 7): 6-5
2011 NCAA (week 7 'unit picks' differential): +2
2011 NCAA (week 7 EXOTICS 'unit picks' differential): -1

*all picks 'ATS' (against the spread)

- Link to NCAA Division 1 scores from yesterday's games -  




Thursday, October 13, 2011

USC (-3.5) at Cal (9:00 ET)

Text was lost on my game write-up... I took CAL based on the LIVE HOME DOG theory (forgetting this was not a 'true' home game...

Oh yeah... & forgetting also that CAL sucks...

CAL for (1 unit)
The 'spy' says: 
(USC 30 - Cal 9) - incorrect

Friday, October 14, 2011

 Hawaii (-6) at San Jose State (9:00 ET)

I'm not going to blame my 'incorrect' call last night (taking Cal vs. USC) on the LIVE HOME DOG scenario not working... Instead, I'm going to blame it on my own NOT THINKING... Cal's home stadium is being renovated & the game was played at AT&T Park (where the San Francisco Giants play - or otherwise the 'Emerald Nut' Bowl)... Appropriately named because there seem to be a lot of 'Emerald Nuts' which populate that district...

I'm also basically blaming Cal... They BLOW... I took them last month in a 'Pick of the Month' (vs. Washington)... It was only a one point spread (so all they basically had to do was win a stupid game)... Same with last night...

I'm about to bring back "Mr. Hand" (from Fast Times at Ridgemont High)... To all the students at Berkely... "What are you people... On Dope?"... (probably so)... Seems to me that they need Aaron Rodgers & Jahvid Best back there ASAP...

Anyway... I'm going to give the LIVE HOME DOG another whirl here tonight (in a true sense - because San Jose State is playing in Spartan Stadium - their 'true' digs)... I'm pretty sure half the student body for Cal didn't even show up to AT&T park because they got distracted by a gay pride festival or something like that on their way to the ballpark (not that there's anything wrong with that - 'cept for when you have UNITS on it)...

SAN JOSE STATE for (0 units)
The 'spy' says: 

Saturday, October 15, 2011

 Navy at Rutgers (-4) (2:00 ET)
Box Score | Recap

This is probably a beautiful spot to take the Midshipmen... The public is down on them because of 2 straight losses to Air Force & a blowout loss to Southern Miss... Rutgers is laying points after two straight wins as 'dogs'... That's a horrible dynamic changer... Perhaps Navy wins outright here...
NAVY for (3 units)...
The 'spy' says:

 #8 Clemson (-8) at Maryland (7:00 PM)
Box Score | Recap

I'm going to roll with the Terps for another week here... Some are saying that Randy Edsall doesn't have this Maryland team playing to its full potential... I disagree... They've played some tough teams thus far & basically have hung in there... This is a breather alert for Clemson (who has just passed the litmus test of their schedule)...
MARYLAND for (1 unit)
The 'spy' says:

Utah at Pitt (-6) (12:00 PM)
Box Score | Recap

Pitt fell flat last week after winning an emotional game vs. South Florida on a weeknight the week before... What you gotta love here is that Utah is coming from the West Coast time zone to the East Coast playing in a 12:00 spot... It's not going to be easy for the Utes to adjust to the tempo of the no-huddle offense of Pitt & there's a chance they might get down a couple of scores early... Heinz field will be a tough surface to play on after a week of rain...

PITT for (2 units)
The 'spy' says:

 Florida (-2) at #24 Auburn (7:00 PM)
Box Score | Recap

Maybe Will Muschamp is a 'padowan' to Nick Saban, but he's no padowan' to Gene Chizik... I've been saying all year that Augurn is overrated & basically can't be counted on to play defense... They've actually played slightly better than I've expected, but that's still not an endorsement... The Gators can be excused for the losses the past two weeks vs. the top 2 defenses in college football... They had to do it without the services of their starting QB in either game (who was lost early in the Alabama game)...

I'll go with the Gator chomp...
FLORIDA (for 1 unit)
The 'spy' says: The public is taking

#10 Michigan at Michigan State (-2.5) (12:00 PM)
Box Score | Recap

Count me in on the 'believers' in Michigan... That's saying something because it's about the first time I can say that in many years... Denard Robinson continues to prove he's no fluke & deserves to be up in the Heisman running... Sparty couldn't hang with the only real competition (Notre Dame) it had all year... I expect this game to be tough, but hell yeah, I'll take the points...

MICHIGAN for (2 units)
The 'spy' says: The public is taking

 #6 Oklahoma State (-8) at #22 Texas (3:30 PM)
Box Score | Recap

I read a few blogs where there are some handicappers who all pick 5 or so games per week... One guy changes the color of his text based on the team he's picking... So this week, he has a few teams that have ORANGE colors & he makes a comment... "Wow, I guess I'm going with an ORANGE theme this week"... (One of his picks was OSU over Texas)...

What a douche... He could have picked TEXAS & has the same phenomenon...

Here's a novelty... I'm taking all 'good teams' this week (over teams that suck or just got blown out last week against an arch rival)... I've said numerous times this year that I think OSU is the best team in the Big 12... I'm rolling with them until they prove me wrong...

OKLAHOMA STATE for (2 units)
The 'spy' says:

Utah State (-3) at Fresno State (10:00 PM)
Box Score | Recap

This game has nothing to do with who I think is 'good' & which team 'sucks'... All year long I've been making successful bets with Utah State (who I think is better than most think)... I can't say I have a full read on Fresno State yet, but they must suck because they just got whomped by Boise State... I'll forgive that... Everybody gets whomped by Boise State...
What I see here is a dynamic change... Utah State has been 'getting' points all year long, now they have to give up points on the road in a night game? Not my cup of tea...
FRESNO STATE for (0 units)...
The 'spy' says:

 #20 Baylor at #21 Texas A&M (-8.5) (12:00 PM)

Box Score | Recap

I meant to write something about this dynamic last week, but forgot... But HERE we find an even better example... I don't trust teams that are ranked between #20 - #25... Period...

A #20 - #25 rank basically means you're a PRETENDER (destined for some 'muffler bowl' or 'weedeater bowl')... Your best crack at something decent is if you happen to live in a region that has some fat cat sponsor whereby you invite some overrated CUPCAKE to come in (after a month of final exams & a basically WE DON'T CARE attitude and pound the shit out of them in front of your adoring fans)...

I expanded the BOTTOM part of my weekly NCAA Picks thread to accomodate the #20 - #25 teams (previously only TOP 20), as a reminder to myself to not get myself involved with these teams... Basically, there are less than 125 schools in NCAA division 1-A... Which means that if you sport a TOP 25 ranking, you're only better than 4 out of five of any schools at large... It's like getting a "B-" grade on something...

Further... Often, teams that get that TOP 25 nod, choke it away as fast as they get it...

Anyway... I don't want to get too carried away, but the Big 12 is getting a lot of media attention (which I think is undeserved, outside of Oklahoma State & Oklahoma)... RG3 (Baylor) looks impressive on both paper & on the field, but the Aggies have spent more time battling tougher opponents (Oklahoma State & Arkansas) recently (whilst Baylor has been dishing out the pain to the Stephen F. Austin's of the world)... I believe this is the Aggies 'homecoming' game, so they may have put a few tough matches behind them & are poised for a better showing...

If this were an evening game, I might be interested, but what bothers me is that 80% of the public $$ is on Baylor, yet the line has moved from 8.5 to 9 at some sportsbooks... Why do the books want to draw even more $$ onto the side of Baylor?

TEXAS A&M for (0 units)...
The 'spy' says:


#2 Alabama at Mississippi
#1 LSU at Tennessee
#3 Oklahoma at Kansas

*being as a sufficient number of 'dogs' covered in the early games, I'm going to go (3 unit) plays on ALL of the incumbents laying points here... I'll probably only hit 2...

* Bold means that I'd tend to favor that team ATS (but won't suggest a play)
ATS = 'Against the Spread'

--- other TOP #25 action ---

Indiana at #4 Wisconsin
#6 Stanford at Washington State
#15 South Carolina at Mississippi State
#12 Georgia Tech at Virginia
Ohio State at #16 Illinois
#5 Boise State at Colorado State
#19 Virginia Tech at Wake Forest
#17 Kansas State at Texas Tech
#18 Arizona State at #9 Oregon