Friday, October 21, 2011

Fantasy Sports Nation - Week 8 NCAA Picks

2011 NCAA Picks (aggregate [weeks 1-7]): 45-44-0
2011 NCAA Picks (aggregate 'unit picks' differential): +2
2011 NCAA (aggregate EXOTICS 'unit picks' differential): -1
2011 NCAA Picks (week 8): 7-5
2011 NCAA (week 8 'unit picks' differential): -5
2011 NCAA (week 7 EXOTICS 'unit picks' differential): +0 (missed 6 teasers - hit 6 teasers)

*all picks 'ATS' (against the spread)

- Link to NCAA Division 1 scores from yesterday's games -  


PREVIEW: I'm going to do the best I can here to give you a menu of games... I apologize in advance that the write-ups may be small because I've been busy this week... I will be attending the Navy - East Carolina game on Saturday (Navy Homecoming), so it will be difficult to do last minute adjustments to the afternoon picks & lines... I'll give it my best shot...


Saturday, October 22, 2011

 North Carolina at #7 Clemson (-10.5) (12:00 ET)
Box Score | Recap

You really have to raise an eyebrow at Clemson's stunning breakdown vs. Maryland last week... Sure, Clemson covered, but had to manage a furious 2nd half barrage when they found themselves down 18 points at one point... Most of that was because Maryland cannot tackle & is undisciplined on special teams (many underclassmen)... North Carolina has several pro prospects on defense including Quinton Coples (who may project out to be a top 5 choice in the 2012 draft)...

Clemson finds itself in the TOP TEN ranking for only the 2nd time in its history (1st time in the BCS rankings era)... Usually that is about the time that a dose of reality sets in...

Besides, I hate the idea of laying double digits with a team that barely covered a double digit spread the week before to an inferior team... UPSET ALERT!
NORTH CAROLINA for (3 units) + add to teaser (see below)
The 'spy' says: 

Army at Vanderbilt (-11.5) (7:00 ET)
Box Score | Recap

I don't like the idea of an SEC team having to gameplan for a triple option team in the middle of their season... Vandy has been known to struggle in the 2nd half of their season for many years... I'll go with the Black Knights...
ARMY for (2 units)... + add to teaser (see below)
The 'spy' says:

 Texas Tech at #3 Oklahoma (-28.5) (8:00 PM)
Box Score | Recap

I'm still not impressed with Oklahoma... Well, let me bracket that... I still don't think they're better than Oklahoma State, though they're better than a lot of other teams... Worthy of a #3 ranking... Yes... Perhaps for NOW... Boise State & Oklahoma State are nipping at their heels in the BCS rankings (followed by Wisconsin & Stanford)... Clemson figures up there somewhere (but read my previous comments on Clemson)...

So anyway... Oklahoma really needs a STATEMENT WIN here to feel the computers happy... Their 'quality win' over #5 Florida State earlier in the year doesn't seem so 'quality' anymore as Florida State has dropped out of the top 25... There is also brewing incentive as #1 & #2 LSU/Alabama face off in two weeks... Oklahoma needs to stay poised to move up a notch... This is really their only place to do it...

I feel I really can't lose by going with the Sooners here... If they win & cover... I bank the units... If they SUCK (& don't cover)... I can say "I told you so" (by having said they're overrated all year)...
OKLAHOMA for (3 units)
The 'spy' says:

#13 Nebraska (-24.5) at Minnesota (3:30 PM)
Box Score | Recap

Nebraska is not forgetting that it needs to keep itself in contention for both the Big 10 Championship game & a possible high bowl allure (assuming it may lose again to Wisconsin for the Big 10 title)...

Minnesota is a fly to swat...

NEBRASKA for (1 unit)
The 'spy' says:

#4 Oklahoma State (-6.5) at Missouri (12:00 PM)
Box Score | Recap

Since I've been singing the praises of the Cowboys all season long, I'd better dance with them here...

Normally I'd HATE going against a 'hot' team going into Missouri (as the Tigers have played the role of 'the cooler' to many hotshot teams over the years)...

What makes this situation a little different is that it's a 12PM game (I'd be more nervous if it were a night game atmosphere)... Also, there's this dipshit analyst on "College Football Live" on ESPN (I forget the dork's name) but he's been barking all week about the UPSET SPECIAL here... Yeah - way to go! That ought to fire up OK State just enough...

OKLAHOMA STATE (for 2 units) + add to teaser (see below)
The 'spy' says: The public is taking

 #6 Wisconsin (-7) at #16 Michigan State (8:00 PM)
Box Score | Recap

I'm thinking that Michigan State might come out a little flat after their emotional win over rival Michigan last week... They lost one of their star defensive players due to a suspension this week for punching another player last week...

I've been avoiding Wisconsin all year (not because I don't think they're any good - in fact the opposite as I ranked them in my top 5 teams in the country pre-season)... It's just that they've played a lot of softer teams & it's still hard to get an accurate read on now good they are... As with some of the dynamics mentioned above, they're 'drifting' in the polls (despite being unbeaten & having thoroughly trounced Nebraska at home)... A statement road win here ought to help...

WISCONSIN for (3 units) + add to teaser (see below)
The 'spy' says: The public is taking

 #10 Oregon at Colorado (3:30 PM)
Box Score | Recap

Oregon always seems to make one good run each year... It may have started last week vs. Arizona State... Besides, Colorado blows...

OREGON for (1 unit)
The 'spy' says:

 Boston College at #12 Virginia Tech (-21) (3:00 PM)
Box Score | Recap

I always have to find at least one "hold your nose & take this stink bomb" of a team to toss into the weekly picks... Boston College fits that role this week...

BOSTON COLLEGE for (1 unit)...
The 'spy' says:


#2 Alabama at Tennessee
#1 LSU at #20 Auburn
Marshall at #19 Houston

Last week this worked for me... I took a 'round robin' of 3 games & said that there's a pretty good shot of at least two of them coming thru... Basically, that's 3 bets for 1 unit each... If at least two win, you make a 0.9 unit profit (vs. a -1.1 loss if it goes the other way)... The odds are much less likely that either you'll win or loss all three...

Conside this a collective 2 unit play (each game) on the three BOLDED teams... It ought to be played collectively (which would require 6 units of capital)...

* Bold means that I'd tend to favor that team ATS (but won't suggest a play)
ATS = 'Against the Spread'


I added 4 teams above (Army, North Carolina, Wisconsin & Oklahoma State to a TEASER POOL)... I'm going to suggest a teaser ROUND ROBIN here:

Army + UNC; Army + Wisconsin; Army + Oklahoma State; UNC + Wisconsin; UNC + Oklahoma State; Wisconsin + Oklahoma State...

Play each teaser (6 units of capital) for one unit each...

--- other TOP #25 action ---

#11 Kansas State at Kansas
#23 Illinois at Purdue
#9 Arkansas at Ole Miss
Airforce at #5 Boise State
#17 Texas A&M at Iowa State
#22 Georgia Tech at Miami (FL)
#21 Penn State at Northwestern
#25 Washington at #8 Stanford


Eh what the hell... I'm NOT casual with my recommendations but I need to illustrate a point... Last week I told you all that #20-#25 ranked teams are PRETENDERS...

Let's do an experiment here to see if that's TRUE (or if I'm FOS)...

Take ALL of the above mentioned adversaries of TOP #25 teams and do the exact type of 'round robin' teaser parlay that I mentioned above...

That requires (6 units) of capital... (one unit each on the bolded teams above in their respective matchups - whilst sliding the TEASER line in their favor)...