2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season aggregate): 44-39-3
2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'unit picks' aggregate differential): (+16)
2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'exotics' differential): (+3)
2011 NFL Picks (week 7): 10-3-0
2011 NFL (week 7 'unit picks' differential): (+6)
*all picks 'ATS' (against the spread)
---2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'unit picks' aggregate differential): (+16)
2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'exotics' differential): (+3)
2011 NFL Picks (week 7): 10-3-0
2011 NFL (week 7 'unit picks' differential): (+6)
*all picks 'ATS' (against the spread)
WEEK 7 NFL PICKS
BYE WEEK: Buffalo, Cincinnati, New England, NY Giants, Philadelphia, San Francisco
PREVIEW: This week features a bevy of 'winning' teams on BYE weeks (the only one NOT on that list is the 'Dream Team' Eagles at 2-4 - which got one of its victory against the 0-5 Rams)... Just saying...
It's been a busy week for me (& I'll be away at the Navy-East Carolina game Saturday), so these 'picks' this week will feature less commentary)... It's a slate of games that does not feature even one matchup between two teams with winning records so there's not a lot of interesting things to sift through)...
It's been a busy week for me (& I'll be away at the Navy-East Carolina game Saturday), so these 'picks' this week will feature less commentary)... It's a slate of games that does not feature even one matchup between two teams with winning records so there's not a lot of interesting things to sift through)...
EARLY GAMES
San Diego Chargers at NY Jets (1:00 EDT)
Line: Chargers by 2
Probably I'm beating an old dead horse here by talking about a West Coast Team playing on the East Coast in the 1PM time slot... Of course now that EVERYBODY KNOWS it's more difficult, it's suddenly going to stop being so hard, right? So you should probably go the other way from here on out right?
As always, 'logic' can be spun in many directions... Logic isn't logic at all... It's only someones 'opinion' of what's logical & what's not... In ancient Roman society, it seemed 'logical' to murder EMPERORS who had outstayed their welcome or usefulness...
In today's society, that doesn't seem 'logical' anymore (or wait - maybe it does)... Anyway, you could program 'logic' circuits into a computer and the computer would act out on its set of instructions... Computers are considered 'logical' machines, so does that mean that if it were programmed to do evil things would it still be logical?
I dunno... I suppose you should just ask a trader on Wall Street that question... Then go ask another one who has a computer which is more impotently 'co-located'...
Speaking of Wall Street... The Blue Horshoe LOVES "Blue Star Airlines" (they fly jets)... You know - J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets...
I'm looking past all the Norv Turner - Rex Ryan crap that came out this week... I think Ladainian Tomlinson is going to want to play extra hard this week against his former team... Rex Ryan even held him out of practice a day this week so he could rest up for a big game...
JETS for (3 units)...
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1:00 EDT)
(at Wembley Stadium, London ENGLAND)
Line: Bears by 1
The NFL in London for the 5th year... Yeah - I guess... I remember a few years ago Channing Crowder (of the Dolphins) didn't even know England was another country...
When you think about it, maybe he had a point... Obama seems to think of himself as King George III (perhaps Obama is here to assure us we're all under British rule - Although giving an I-Pod to the queen & yet bowing to other soverign rulers might lay to waste that notion)...
Matt Forte is leading the NFL in rushing + receiving aggregates & there's no reason to think he can't do similarly vs. the Bucs who are missing Gerald McCoy... The Bears (last week), finally found some pass protection for Jay Cutler (and you have to hand it to Cutler, he 'stepped up' and produced)...
The Bucs won a very important & emotional game last week vs. a fierce division rival (Saints)... They're a young team & they're still without LaGarrette Blount (although Earnest Graham is a very competent backup)... Basically what I'm wondering here is if the Bucs (who are the youngest team in the NFL) won't have a letdown here both having had a big game last week & playing a more veteran Bears team (also with momentum building & needing wins to stay alive)...
BEARS for (0 units)...
Line: Panthers by 2.5
The Panthers let me down last week (as I lost a few units on them)... But the loss to the Falcons wasn't as bad as it looked in the box score... A couple of Cam Newtons 3 interceptions came off tipped balls (which were not his fault)...
What REALLY hurts the Panthers here is that they now have lost left tackle Jeff Otha for the season (again)... That's going to put a serious crimp in their running game (which had just started coming along)... That's BAD NEWS for Jonathan Stewart & DeAngelo Williams fantasy owners (& probably good news for Cam Newton owners & possibly Steve Smith & Greg Olsen)...
Carolina's weak spot is on total defense... An experienced Mike Shanahan will likely do his best to play ball control & win the time of possession battle... He's swapping to John Beck this week at QB so you can almost be sure that he doesn't want to put him into too many spots where he might make errors...
That's why I kind of like Carolina here... I'd rather have them in what might turn out to be a "gunslinging" situation... I'd trust Cam Newton eminently more than John Beck in that situation... Need a reason why?... Well - Look at Michael Vick's production vs. Washington last week... I believe Cam Newton is more talented than Michael Vick & actually makes better decisions...
I actually offered Cam Newton (in a trade) to another owner in a fantasy league I'm in this week... Why? Because I was trying to HELP HIM WIN (because I was interested in him BEATING the team he was playing that week and his usual starting QB [Eli Manning] is on a BYE and he's subbing Colt McCoy)...
I wanted a hefty pricetag... I wanted Ryan Matthews (but I also offered him Dallas Clark - as he was struggling with a TE vacancy)...
OK... I 'see it'... I see that giving up Ryan Matthews is a big deal... But really... I received an utterly indignant response to the trade... Something along the lines of "COME ON MAN! YGBFKM!"...
I'm going to use this spot here to tell everyone something... Fantasy Football comes down to PHILOSOPHY... One of my main philosophies is that if you can all but GUARANTEE a win in front of you... TAKE THE WIN...
For this week I was offering him the exact tools he needed to fill the spots to almost 100% give him a win... Everybody knows that these BYE WEEK games in FF are critical... I've written many times that they're the MOST critical aspect of fantasy football... Even MORE critical than the draft itself...
Fantasy Football = BYE WEEKS & INJURIES... That's it... The 'breeze' you feel right now is the wind created by all the fantasy owners (nodding their heads) who lost Jamaal Charles this year... OR, the ones who drafted Tom Brady, Wes Welker, LeSean McCoy, & Stevie Johnson this year & have been rolling (& this week finding themselves playing a team full of Cam Newton's, Earnest Graham's, Ladainian Tomlinson's, Pierre Thomas'es, & Eric Decker's that's gonna kick their ever lovin ass)...
I'll take the PANTHERS for (1 unit)...
Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (1:00 EDT)
Line: Lions by 3.5
Oh... & speaking of fantasy injuries (& similar things)... On that same team that I got 'dissed' on the trade offer for Cam Newton/Ryan Matthews... Understand that the indignant response by this fantasy owner was that Cam Newton was a BENCH PLAYER for me...
Yeah... I guess... That's because TOM BRADY is my starting QB on that team... I actually started Cam Newton over Tom Brady one week in that fantasy league... & he scored 10 more points (Newton did)... Good thing... Why? Because I beat the same guy I'd offered the trade to by 2 points that week... He only has one loss on his schedule (it was to ME)...
What you also have to understand is that in that league, the payout structure is such that the winner after the first half of the season (7 games) gets $100 (basically the league entry fee)... He's in FIRST PLACE as we speak & a win this week would ICE that result... I don't know how everybody thinks, but $100 is a $100... If it doesn't seem like that much, then put it into a different perspective... What if the BUY in was $1,000,000 (meaning a 10 team league - would produce a $10,000,000 payout pool)... This simple 7 game HALF SEASON win would return your BUY IN... How would you respond to a TRADE OFFER that all but guaranteed you achieving that result if it arrived on your desk that week?
As mentioned before... Different people have different logic circuits... What's more important to that dynamic is that most people (including myself) think of themselves as 'geniuses'... It is very difficult, therefore, to use LOGIC in a one to one argument... So in the end, this is all rhetoric for the 'People's Court'... I leave you all to stand in judgement of me... The KEY there being... YEAH BUT YOU WERE ASKING FOR RYAN MATTHEWS...
I see... I GET IT... But you have to ask for something... Right?... I actually crunched the numbers... I can't play it all out here, but it basically amounted to the fact that with the strength of the rest of his team, he could have SUBSTITUTED Ryan Matthews numbers off the waiver wire each week by doing clever maneuvers... How & Why?... Mainly because CAM NEWTON was even an upgrade over his STARTING QB [Eli Manning]... Look it up... Cam Newton plots out as #2 fantasy value player thus far... He's getting better each week... Eli (& the Giants) have been known to be 2nd half of the year chokers)... Plus - the Giants usually shift to a ground based game [Bradshaw/Jacobs] when the weather gets cold... & Eli is missing his "go to" tight end (Kevin Boss)... They're using a tandem of blocking tight ends this year...
Bottom line: Between Cam Newton & swapping a defense or kicker each week, he could have still arrived at his Ryan Matthews quota... & that's assuming Ryan Matthews stays healthy (which is a BIG IF - as he's had injury problems both in the NFL & at Fresno State)...
So... you say... Why was "I" willing to take on the risk of that?... Answer: Because I'm "rolling the dice" a little here... My team happens to have been an AUTOPICKED team... I never really liked it in the first place (save for Tom Brady & Cam Newton [who nobody drafted - but who I picked up off of waivers ater week 1])...
I'm a bit of a 'wheeler/dealer" riverboat gambler when it comes to fantasy football... It's why I WRITE a blog... while other people READ blogs...
I've said nothing about this game here... Well - It's because I also have JAHVID BEST on that team (& he may be out for awhile because of a concussion)... Remember, Jahvid Best was AUTOPICKED on my squad... He's had an outstanding year thus far, but I would have never drafted him because I knew he was a 'concussion case' (AARON RODGERS & DE SEAN JACKSON OWNERS - take note!)...
Now he's in that annoying 'iffy' spot where you can't CUT him from your roster because he may or may not be cleared to play at any time...
This week, the Lions tried to deal Jerome Harrison to the Eagles for Ronnie Brown... That should tell you something... The return of Jahvid Best is sketchy... I remember the first big hit Jahvid Best took... It was when he was playing for Cal vs. Maryland... I was at the game... Jeez - "I" have a concussion after seeing that hit... Anyway - most have heard the story of Jerome Harrison being examined by the Eagles doctors this week & the discovery that HE has a brain tumor... I want to take this space here to wish him well & best of luck in dealing with that medical issue... Salute to the man upstairs/nature as well for pressing on in a way where strange incidents lead to discoveries which lead to situations whereby human will & choice have a factor in outcomes... That is a blessing...
As it relates to Falcons-Lions, I don't know... The BIG STORY last week was the scuffle between Schwartz & Harbaugh after last weeks Lions 49ers game (& game which I was 'correct' for several units on)... Interestingly, the 49ers are on a BYE this week & now you have the obviously more important 'Jerome Harrison' issue in the Lions clubhouse... So my take on that is that the 'scuffle' WAS TOTALLY OVERBLOWN by the media in the first place... There are obviously more important things to worry about (Like who's going to win Dancing With the Stars, what 'Snookie' is doing, or whether Bernanke will print a trillion or a quadrillion next)... Stay tuned...
As for this game... FINALLY... I just gotta take the Falcons & the points here... I'll get to this a little later, but there are two pretty good trends to ride in sports betting... One is TAKING winless teams against the spread & the other is FADING undefeated teams... The Lions are no longer undefeated, but they're fresh off being undefeated (so it applies)... All last week I was talking (in a crowd) about how the 49ers were going to beat the Lions... So this week, this guy I don't even know comes up to me & says... "Dude - I was thinking about what you were saying about the Lions last week - you were right"... I know that doesn't mean anything in the grand scheme of the universe... But it DOES mean that I made an impression... Some anonymous person remembered something I'd said... The fact is... I'm NOT using hyperbole or bravado here to pick this game... I'm just using the same idea as I'd used the week before in saying that the Lions are not in the best of spots at the moment...
I'm going to go with the FALCONS here for (1 unit)...
Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns (1:00 EDT)
Line: Browns by 3
OK... I've gotta spend less words here... Besides, who cares? It's the fucking Seahawks vs. the Browns... If this were the only game & it was going up against the World Series, I'd choose the latter (well - except for the FANTASY implications)... It's safe to say that nobody has ANYBODY on the Seahawks on their starting fantasy rosters (save for the desperate sould who lost Jamaal Charles & picked up Marshawn Lynch as a replacement to use in a BYE week)... Or, the 'Colt McCoy' dudes (oh - we've alrteady been thru all that...
Actually, I'm rooting for the guy (who 'dissed' me on the Cam Newton trade)... Why? Because I'm starting Greg Little in a lot of leagues... I wrote up about him last week in this space so you can go back & see if you want...
His points weren't spectacular, but he was kind of robbed on one catch where he was stretching for the goal line to score a touchdown & missed by about a half a foot... Otherwise his numbers were solid & more importantly, he was targeted THE MOST among Brown receivers... The Browns may need that because... DRUMROLL... The Seahawks actually have the stingiest RUSHING DEFENSE in the NFL (allowing only 3.1 yards per carry to opposing backs)... I'm usually dubious aboiut such stats, but the Seahawks have played Frank Gore, Rashard Mendenhall, Michael Turner, Ahmad Bradshaw, & Beanie Wells thus far... I'm kind of thinking the 'Madden Curse' will be in full effect vs. Peyton Hillis this week (&/or the 'Montario Hardesty' picker-uppers are braindead)...
Mike Holmgren is going against his former team here (though there was never any real bad blood in that departure)... Perhaps if anything, it'll be the other way around as Pete Carroll will be anxious to defeat what used to be a legacy in Seattle...
He'll be doing it with Charlie Whitehurst (who I have zilch in the way of handicapping)... The best thing I can say is that it's 'iffy' that he'll have to face Joe Haden (who is QUESTIONABLE with a knee injury)...
I gotta pass on this game overall, but would take the Seahawks & the points in a crunch...
SEAHAWKS for (0 units)...
Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins (1:00 EDT)
Line: Dolphins by 1
This is the game whereby (to get asses in the seats), the Dolphins are going to honor the Florida Gators & Tim Tebow in this game...
Yes folks... the ridiculous has officially become the sublime...
I actually kind of like Tim Tebow... Didn't used to, but he has gained my respect over the years because he seems to be unwavering with regards to his positive attitude... I gotta say I'm a POSITIVE guy as well... Depending on my mode or medium of communication, people don't always see it (because I'm CYNICAL as well)... But overall I'm positive...
When somebody takes to WRITING... It's best to adopt a CYNICAL stance... Mostly because people are peppered 24/7 with propaganda... If it were the other way around (that people were bombarded with CYNICISM 24/7, a 'positive' message might gain eyeballs...
Anyway... I also think Tim Tebow makes things happen on the football field... That's NOT an endorsement as to whether or not he'll have a long successful career in the NFL, but I'm just saying... His personal stats are on par with Mike Vick & Cam Newton... & if you want to go the direction of "Yeah - but how many WINS has it produced for the Denver Broncos"?... I think that's irrelevant at this juncture because the Broncos have other problems needing to be addressed that go a lot deeper than Tim Tebow...
They traded Brandon Lloyd to the Rams this week (to be re-united with Josh McDaniel)... One could look at that trade a number of ways... Are they TRYING to set up Tebow to fail (when I say "they", I'm referring to John Elway)?...
I can't say I see it that way... Or at least put it this way, I can come up with an overshadowing argument... Josh McDaniels NEEDED Brandon Marshall (because he hasn't been able to get his offensive scheme working in St. Louis due to key injuries and incorrect personnel)... So I put that trade squarely on the Rams acquiring a player they needed (not the Broncos 'jettisoning' players to harm Tebow)...
Besides... The Broncos have Eric Decker coming into his own in the NFL & Demarius Thomas (who is 'this close' to being healthy again)... I don't think the Broncos offense (sans Josh McDaniels) sinks or swins based on Brandon Lloyd)...
Frankly... I still think the Broncos deal is that they're going to end up battling Itsay & the Colts for Andrew Luck at the end of the season... That's my story & I'm sticking to it...
It ought to play well here, because Miami is a winless team (Broncos with one win)... What basically sucks here is that Miami is coming off an ugly loss on MNF (which is never a good dynamic) & they are also starting a QB (Matt Moore) who appears to be inept...
Bottom line is that this sets up to be an ugly contest... Tebow may actually be the only bright spot... I'd avoid this game, & since I nominated TEBOW as the only bright spot...
I'll go with the BRONCOS for (0 units)...
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (1:00 EDT)
Line: Texans by 3
I'm not going to get in to blaming the Texans for falling back in the standings because they lost to the Ravens last week... When you compile all their injury problems (plus - the generally difficulty of ANY team going in to M&T Bank stadium & beating the Ravens), it's an 'excused' loss...
But then again... It also serves to illustarte WHO'S WHO in the pantheon of elite NFL squads... It's why I still stick by my PATRIOTS-RAVENS-PACKERS-SAINTS quartet as the 'Final Four' of ther 2011 season...
Andre Johnson hasn't been ruled out of this game (but let's face it - he's NOT going to play)... Why even bother putting him on the field and risk another Cortland Finnegan incident?...
I hate to use this as the BASIS of my pick, but my recollection is that it has been CJ2K that has always given the Titans the edge over the Texans in recent matchups (either in 'stats', or the 'respect' factor)... CJ2K still really hasn't got it going this year & the Titans are without Kenny Britt...
Here's the part I hate about what I just said... Wade Phillips is the new DC in Houston... He is definitely an UPGRADE over Texans DC's past, but I still don't think he's as good as he gets credit for... In this spot though, I think it's enough to upset the balance... I basically put this down to the Seahawks vs. Cowboys matchups over the past few years (where Phillips seems to have had the knack to gameplan well vs. Matt Hasslebeck)... The Texans are yet another week past having to deal with the loss of Mario Williams, so they may put the brakes on some Tennessee drives...
This is about the 2nd most uninteresting game to me, though I DO acknowledge that it is an important battle for who might emerge as the AFC South champions... I watched the entire Houston-Baltimoire game last week & despite pretty much getting schooled, the Texans played hard... The same Ravens LOST their only game to the Titans earlier this year in a weel they were unfocused after a big win over the Steelers...
Bettors here might be remembering that result (& therefore backing the Titans here)... But remember also that the Texans beat the Steelers handily (while the Steelers CRUSHED the Titans)...
If it were me... & I guess it is... I'll go with the TEXANS for (1 unit)...
LATE GAMES
I won't have time to do individual game write-ups for the LATE GAMES... In this slot, I like the CHIEFS the best... Plus, I like the VEGAS HOUSE EDGE in taking the Vikings (but I won't recommend putting any units at any time against Aaron Rodgers - so it's an OFF game... Just beware)...
The COLTS will be a low unit play as the Dolphins lost & 'if' the Rams fail to cover...
I won't have time to do individual game write-ups for the LATE GAMES... In this slot, I like the CHIEFS the best... Plus, I like the VEGAS HOUSE EDGE in taking the Vikings (but I won't recommend putting any units at any time against Aaron Rodgers - so it's an OFF game... Just beware)...
The COLTS will be a low unit play as the Dolphins lost & 'if' the Rams fail to cover...
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (4:05 EDT)
Line: Raiders by 5.5
Game write-up to be posted before Sunday...
Leaning towards a mid-unit play on the CHIEFS for (3 units)...
Game write-up to be posted before Sunday...
Leaning towards a mid-unit play on the CHIEFS for (3 units)...
Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals (4:05 EDT)
Line: Steelers by 3.5
Game write-up to be posted before Sunday...
Leaning towards a mid-unit play on the CARDINALS for (2 units)...
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (4:15 EDT)
Line: Packers by 9
Game write-up to be posted before Sunday...
Leaning towards a low-unit play on the VIKINGS (0 units)...
St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys (4:15 EDT)
Line: Cowboys by 13
Game write-up to be posted before Sunday...
Leaning towards a low-unit play on the COWBOYS for (1 unit)...
Leaning towards a low-unit play on the COWBOYS for (1 unit)...
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints (8:20 EDT - NBC)
Line: Saints by 14
Game write-up to be posted before Sunday...
Leaning towards a mid-unit play on the COLTS for (2 units)...
(pending outcomes of Den/Mia & StL/Dal)
Leaning towards a mid-unit play on the COLTS for (2 units)...
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (8:30 EDT - ESPN)
Line: Ravens by 10
The Vegas House Ticket this week (determined by the 'sides' on which Vegas has taken the most money without significantly moving the line) was:
- Jacksonville
- Minnesota - Arizona
- St Louis
- Indianapolis
[The house also had a lot riding on Washington]
Vegas has so much exposure on Jacksonville, Minnesota and Arizona that if all three of those teams fail to cover there may not be a Vegas next week. Tickets were running almost 19-1 in favor of Green Bay (so it was great for the HOUSE that the Vikes covered (wink wink)...
Tonight you have Baltimore - Jax and the 'sharps' had a 26-1 bias towards the Ravens (but that was at -8.5 & the line has slid to 10)...
You'd probably be better if you had locked that in...
I can't go against the HOUSE with such an extreme bias off the VHT...
Therefore I'm OFF tonight... The HOUSE has their perfect guy in pinstripes (Carl Cheffers)... It had Scott Green as well (last night in New Orleans), but there was really nothing he could do because the game got out of hand so quickly...
I'd expect a bunch of long pass interference calls on the Ravens D, as well as holding calls on the Ravens offensive line...
A backdoor cover is in the cards, but I'm OFF either way...
JAGUARS for (0 units)...
(It'll probably push)