2011 NFL Picks (week 5): 6-3
2011 NFL (week 5 'unit picks' differential): (+11)
2011 NFL (week 5 'unit picks' differential): (+11)
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WEEK 5 NFL PICKS
BYE WEEK: Cleveland, Dallas, St. Louis, Miami, Washington, Baltimore
WEEK 5 NFL PICKS
BYE WEEK: Cleveland, Dallas, St. Louis, Miami, Washington, Baltimore
EARLY GAMES
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 EDT)
Line: Steelers by 3
Probably a couple of things I want to say here... First of all, if anyone doesn't believe me by now, In my PRESEASON WRITE-UPS I suggested that 'Super Bowl LOSING' teams tend to struggle the year after... This formula applies to the Steelers this year...
Finally, after getting manhandled by Houston last week, the talking head sportscasters are starting to catch on... The score didn't indicate how much the Texans dominated the Steelers in that game... They beat them in ALL ASPECTS... Two things are going to come out of that...
- Idiots are going to think the Texans are better than they are...
- 'Sharps' are going to understand that a veteran team like the Steelers (despite having problems) are going to figure out a few things going forward... Whether or not it's enough to make the playoffs we'll discuss at a later time...
The hilarious thing here is that this line is being held up (to be determined whether Ben Rothleisberger, who suffered a foot injury vs. the Texans, will play here)... If not... Charlie Batch will start (& surely the line will be adjusted)... I hope it happens because I love the Steelers in this spot...
Remember that Charlie Batch, besides having played forever in Pittsburgh, led the Steelers to a 3-1 start last year (when Ben Rothleisberger was serving out a suspension)... One of those wins was ON THE ROAD to this same Tennessee squad who, arguably, was a better team at that point... Tennessee, this year, somehow managed to beat a Ravens team this year that was clearly not focused & the rest of the time has beaten the Browns, & the Broncos... World beaters! Flaming Thumbtacks rule!...
I'm not going to say that the Steelers are going to fix all their problems this week, but I think they have enough veteran pride & talent to negate any matchup weakness against a team that will be lucky to get to 8-8 this year...
STEELERS for (2 units)...
Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (1:00 EDT)
Line: Giants by 10
I've said this already, that this year there are a lot of West Coast - East Coast matchup scenarios... This used to be a secret, but now the TV analysts are all over it because none of them have an original thought & actually get their information from blogs like this all week...
Let's put it this way... 3 weeks ago the Seahawks came by the East Coast & played a pissed off Steelers team (which had just sacrificed 7 turnovers to the Ravens)... The line on that game was Steelers (-14), & they covered easily...
As written above... The Steelers aren't that good... So what does that make the Seahawks (despite their win, in Seattle, over a crappy Arizona Cardinals squad), and a "come from behind" backdoor cover LOSS to the Falcons last week (Falcons, being crappy themselves, & having to travel all the way West after two heavy psychological games vs. Philly & division rival Tampa Bay)... In retrospect, I'm not surprised the Falcons "mailed in" the 2nd half last week (which makes Seattle's 'head scratching' performance, seem a little more understandable)...
The Giants seem 'focused' at the moment... They looked horrible in the first 6 quarters this year, but they've turned it around... To have the ability to come back (on the road) as they did vs. the Cardinals last week, despite the weird calls & dubious talent of the Cardinals, was impressive...
Seattle, if it has any bonuses at all, is fairly decent vs. the run... I know Michael Turner scored 2 TD's last week, but he really only ran for small change... Eli Manning ought to be able to do the same thing that Matt Ryan did last week & utilize his receiving options (Cruz, Manningham, & Nicks) to move the chains & soften up the defense enough to maybe see Bradshaw & Jacobs to finish with some TD runs...
I can't see Tavaris Jackson being able to match that output without being prone to mistakes... The Giants are 3-1 now (tied for the lead with Washington in the NFC East who is on a BYE week)... I'm looking for the Giants to re-capture some of the lost NY fans right now who are wondering why the Jets look so bad...
GIANTS for (2 units)...
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (1:00 EDT)
Line: Jaguars by 2
Somehow, quietly, the Bengals have the #1 ranked defense in the NFL... I can't really say that that might change much in the next two weeks, as they face Blaine Gabbert here & Curtis Painter next week...
I took the Bengals (over the Bills) last week in a high unit play... In handicapping though, it's tough to MARRY teams like that that are playing in a good spot as the next week the dynamics might totally change...
It's hard to say that the aforementioned dynamics put the Bengals in a 'better' light than last week (after all - they 'unexpectedly' took down the undefeated Bills [he said UNEXPECTEDLY - lol])... Yeah, the Bills were that UNEXPECTED 3-0 team that the public (fueled by the sportscasters) were just starting to think were FOR REAL...
It was hard for the Jaguars to win any hearts because they were facing down Drew Brees going about his business...
If anything, this line should be skewed towards the Bengals here... But as I look at it... (Jags -2)?... That's saying that the Bengals are only a point better than the Jags on a neutral field... I'm not so sure about that... Or, more precisely, I think they are 'somewhat' better than the Jags...
Both are starting rookie QB's at the moment (Andy Dalton & Blaine Gabbert)... Both feature pretty good run stoppage & pretty decent offensive running games... I'll say that Maurice Jones Drew is a little better, but Cincy's run defense is one of the better run stoppers that MJD has faced all year...
This game may go down to which rookie QB can move the chains better (& I'd have to give that edge to Andy Dalton)... Not on Dalton's talent alone, but on the fact that Cincy's D can put a little more pressure on the QB & that they have a more solid secondary (led by Leon Hall)...
I'll take the BENGALS for (2 units)...
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (1:00 EDT)
Line: Saints by 6.5
This is the week that I'm finally going to do it... I'm announcing it to the world... I'm going to start Cam Newton over Tom Brady in one of the $$ fantasy leagues that I'm in...
It's a tough call (for obvious reasons)... & I might yet change my mind on that... There are probably too many angles to that logic than to waste space here writing about...
You either 'get it' or you 'don't'... I'm not saying that 'the Panthers are for REAL' or anything... In fact, it's just the opposite... Everyone here knows that I picked the SAINTS to go to the Super Bowl this year... (I'm obviously still sticking with that call)... They ought to win here as well (dropping the Panthers to 1-4 in the process)...
It's just that, this (soon to be) 1-4 Panthers team is NOT like the Panthers team of a year ago... These guys are entertaining to watch & they don't give up... They're prone to a lot of mistakes, but come on, they've been "in" every game all season... Cam Newton has amassed jaw dropping fantasy numbers for a rookie QB (for ANY QB)... He's BLOWING AWAY Michael Vick in that category, & still, amazingly, nobody has seemed to notice yet...
I loved it last week when they came back to BACKDOOR COVER the Bears in Soldier Field... The Bears basically won that game because of two huge Devin Hester returns (a 73 yard kickoff return & a punt return for a TD which tied him for the all-time lead in that category)...
What I liked most is that the Panthers could have 'folded' in that game when it was basically over... But instead, Cam Newtoin marched them right back to score a meaningless TD in the end (to cover)...
Gotta love teams like that (especially ones with a fresh new QB who can do it all & a new head coach with a fresh coaching philosophy)... The Panthers are going to catch a few 'napping' teams this year)...
That's why I like them is this spot (vs. division rival Saints)... Believe it or not, the Panthers & Saints typically play close games... So that means that with the Saints 'giving' 6.5 points here, they'd basically be 'giving' 12.5 points if this were in the Superdome???
The Saints have to play a tough division rival next week on the road (Tampa)... I can't really say they're in 'look ahead' mode here... But they might have their hands full... I doubt they'll have trouble putting points on the board... But remember, the Panthers have already weathered Aaron Rodgers & the Green Bay 'hurry up' offense... They almost came away with a win there (by managing to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field for most of the 1st Q)...
I'm going to go with the PANTHERS here for (3 units)...
Line: Texans by 6
See above comments (vis-a-vis 'Texans - Steelers')... The Steelers are much worse than people think & the Texans should have won that game by a lot more than a touchdown... The big problem was that the Texans, throughout the game, kept shooting themselves in the foot with bonehead plays & stupid penalties... But here's the thing...
It's now almost a certainty that the AFC South is the Texans... TO LOSE... If nothing else, it's that way mathematically (vs. the Colts)... Only one team has ever come back to make the playoffs after an 0-4 start (where the Colts find themselves now after the Monday Night loss to Tampa Bay)... I've already said how crappy the Jags were (& with a rookie QB)... & the Titans are mercurical & have a rookie head coach who will probably fail to do the little things that might take a 7-9 team to 9-7 & maybe have a chance at something...
Anyway, all that was to say that now THE PUBLIC sees them (Texans) as a playoff team... The problem with that is, that a team that has a 'mediocre' CULTURE like the Texans... That, year after year, seems to UNDERPERFORM expectations... All of a sudden, thrust into this spot where they go from hunter to hunted... Well - all I can say is they have to prove themselves...
The Raiders are better that expected this year... Their loss to the Patriots was all but a given (after the Patriots had lost to the Bills the week before)... Still, the Raiders played fairly well... The Raiders have to get over this hump they have of playing out of the AFC West (especially on the road)... This year, I'd say, they've done a better job of it (almost beating the Bills in week 2 & of course beating the Jets at home)...
The Texans are coming into this game without their stud WR Andre Johnson (who pulled up with a hamstring injury against the Steelers)... Mostly though, the Texans are improved on defense, but I can't say that they're much better at their run stoppage (where the Raiders excel)... I think if the Raiders manage to play a clean game (which, I know, is a lot to ask), they can hang very easily against a team that is also rather undisciplined & mistake prone... Motivationally, the Raiders might be anxious to ERASE the loss to the Patriots...
I'll take the RAIDERS here for (1 unit)...
Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (1:00 EDT)
Line: Eagles by 3
The problems continue for the 'Dream Team'... I think 'Dream Team' is going to go down as one of the WORST labels of the decade... The last thing in the world you fucking want to be in professional sports is a 'Dream Team'... trust me... Right Le Bron? Right Boston Red Sox?
I'll take 'Moneyball' type teams any day of the week...
I'm going to use this space as my WEEKLY (make Matthew Berry [of the 'Talented Mr. Roto' fantasy fame - a 'Dream Team'-ish label in of itself] my whipping boy)... Matthew Berry was the one who unabashedly said to DRAFT MICHAEL VICK #1 in all fantasy leagues... Just so you know... Matthew Berry works for ESPN (who is owned by ABC/Disney)... Yeah - that's the SAME media conglomerate who last week decided to pull the Hank Williams Jr. "ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL" song & opening from the Monday Night Football (which was a song & expression that had become an American pop cultural icon for the past 30 years) telecast last week... Why?
Because HWJr. made an appearance on a Fox news show the day before and basically made a comment that 'Obama-Boehner' together (on the golf links) was like having 'Hitler&Netanyahu' together... Before we go further, let's understand the FACTS...
- First of all... Hank Williams Jr. is NOT an employee of ESPN
- Second... He did not call Obama 'Hitler'
So whatever actions were taken by Disney/ABC/ESPN stretched to the point that they were acting to mitigate what they 'perceived' (without foreknowledge) might be collateral damage... IOW - they were 'sucking up' to Obama & the office of the presidency, because even though the 'Hitler- Netanyahu' reference was NOT a characterization of the individuals, but rather a metaphorical description of entities with opposed PHILOSOPHIES - they were worried that the gullible 'American Idol', 'Dancing with the Stars' watching Americans would perceive it that way...
& furthermore... Even though Hank Williams IS NOT an ESPN employee, they chose to cut ties to something that probably ranks in the TOP #10 of cultural POP expressionism in the past quarter century, SO AS TO DO WHAT?... Not piss off Obama or his supporters (half of which & probably the only remaining, at this point, are homosexuals who don't even watch football and don't even know who Hank Williams Jr. is)...
I don't know... I REALLY DON'T KNOW... All I can say is that I stand by what I said in 2008... Which is... That the "Obamamania" messianic attitude was likely to bring this country 'culturally' to places we don't want to go... I said he would end up being more DIVISIVE than the opposite (& that people were being BLIND to that dynamic - just like being BLIND to the Bills 3-1 start; or the Lions at 4-0 [which are now accepted]; or the Panthers 'better than expected' [which most are still failing to see])...
The book is not fully written on that... But this episode with ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL???... All in all it's just another Brick in the Wall...
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| "We don't need no THOUGHT CONTROL"... |
As for Bills/Eagles... MEH... Eagles & their QB (you know - the former 'dog killing' guy who, when he became popular again last year after one good game [a game, STATISTICALLY, which was bettered by Aaron Rodgers last Sunday to relatively little fanfare], got a personal call from Obama saying how great he was...
Anyway... Nothing has really changed from last week to this... Oh... Here's the Matthew Berry beatdown (you know - that dick sucking guy from ESPN who ranked Vick as the #1 fantasy pick... ABSOLUTELY to be drafted #1 in ALL LEAGUES)... Well - right now he's #24 in fantasy value (basically - a run of the mill 3rd round pick)... He's behind Matt Hasslebeck, Eli Manning, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Stafford, Cam Newton, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, & Aaron Rodgers in QB scoring... & in overall fantasy POSITION VALUE, ranks just behind Eric Decker, Jimmy Graham, Beanie Wells, & Rob Gronkowski...
So THAT's who will be leading the
- an OLD offensive line that can't block
- a linebacker corps full of rookies who can't run stop or pass cover
- ditto with safeties
- a team that can't convert 3rd & short yardages
& now ADD to that...
- A 'hobbled' stud pass rusher (Trent Cole) who will miss a few weeks due to injury
- a rookie kicker who misses a pair of 20 yarders per week
I'm guessing that the Eagles are HOPE(ing) that things will CHANGE pretty soon & that their 'Dream Team' will morph into a 'Summer of Recovery'... Probably the best thing they can do here is to play FAR from Philly at the moment (& let the Phillies do their thing)...
But I'll go with the EAGLES for (0 units)... Sucker that I am...
Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EDT)
Line: Colts by 2.5
Most of you who read this blog won't know this reference (but some will)... In any case... On the subject of the Indianapolis Colts... In the immortal words of Hugh Hendry...
"It's time to panic"...
I'm not one to tease the 'mathematical gods'... Earlier I said that there has only been one team to start the season at 0-4 which made it to the playoffs... The Colts have earned themselves a chance to become #2 (an 'apt' nomenclature metaphor) along with the Vikings, Dolphins, & Rams...
I'm counting the Dolphins & Vikings OUT of playoff contention (as I did since the pre-season)... I'm still giving the Rams a shot, but they have a BYE week here & still have to play Green Bay & Detroit... Their window is closing FAST...
Colts? You know... I was a Baltimore Colts fan in 1983, the year that Irsay loaded up a moving van in the middle of a snowy night & trucked it on out to Indy... While it never really made me hate the Colts, it definitely made me hate the ownership...
It's way too early to tell... But it wouldn't surprise me that a "prick" like Irsay just told his team... at this point... to lay down and basically enter the SUCK FOR LUCK sweepstakes... (That is - SUCK - & win as few games as possible - for the chance to draft Andrew Luck #1 in next years draft)...
Irsay, sort of has a history with this (though nobody really remembers because Peyton Manning has been around for so long)... I think it all started for Irsay back (in that same 1983), when he drafted John Elway (who refused to come to Baltimore & instead threatened that if he wasn't traded, he would play baseball for the New York Yankees who also drafted him)... After a number of misfit adventures with the Colts (which included bringing in Eric Dickerson & others), Irsay has ALWAYS been convinced that a franchise QB was the key to the kingdom (not ENTIRELY wrong)... He never really landed one until Peyton Manning (remember - there was the 'Jeff George' experiment & others, including Jim Harbaugh)...
Anyway... this situation with Peyton Manning... I'm convinced now... Is getting Irsay to start thinking of Andrew Luck as the QB to take them through the NEXT decade (after Manning retires)... What a perfect scenario... Luck basically plays the 'Aaron Rodgers to Brett Favre' role while Manning plays out his last few years (which may end up being stunted due to the nature of his injury)...
That's enough to whet anyone's 'conspiratorial' appetite... But basically what I'm saying is that I don't trust the Colts to win a lot of games at this point... That doesn't mean that they won't cover pointspreads, but here (as chance may have it) the Colts are 'favored'... The last I checked, it's hard to cover a pointspread when you LOSE a game you're favored in...
The Colts put 100% into the loss vs. the Tampa Bay Bucs & came up short... Now they're on 6 days rest, are emotionally drained & have to deal with a clubhouse that is deflated due to a gruesome injury during the Monday Night game... The Chiefs got in to the winning column last week & might have a coach (Todd Haley) who is desperate to keep his job...
I'll go with the CHIEFS for (3 units)...
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (1:00 EDT - CBS)
Line: Vikings by 2.5
Rounding out the 'winless team' category (except for the fact that the Dolphins & Rams are on BYE weeks), are the Minnesota Vikings...
The best thing you can say about the Vikings losing to the Chiefs last week is that they didn't blow a huge 2nd half lead in the process...
Again... Really the stories haven't changed much for either of these teams week over week... The Vikings are still in the quagmire that they have to decide WHEN to bench Donovan McNabb in favor of Christian Ponder (which - by the way - at the moment doesn't make Mike Shanahan look like so much of an idiot after the debacle in Washington last year... Just ask 'Sexy Rexy')... Probably the best time to usher in such a transition is during BYE weeks, so Vikings fans may have to wait... Also (& I'll go this far), you can't let a veteran like McNabb flame out with an 0-4 start & bench him... Let the man have SOME dignity & get him a win...
The Cardinals lost a game to the Giants last week in an EPIC meltdown where Eli Manning threw for over 300 yards in the last quarter... They had to deal with an adverse officiating call (which has been replayed many times by now)... I'm not sure the Cardinals have the guts & discipline to overcome that game (momentum wise) at the moment vs. a down & out (but VETERAN) Vikings squad that is desperate for a win... Beanie Wells scored 3 TD's last week, but may find tougher yards here...
I'll take the VIKINGS for (4 units)...
Rounding out the 'winless team' category (except for the fact that the Dolphins & Rams are on BYE weeks), are the Minnesota Vikings...
The best thing you can say about the Vikings losing to the Chiefs last week is that they didn't blow a huge 2nd half lead in the process...
Again... Really the stories haven't changed much for either of these teams week over week... The Vikings are still in the quagmire that they have to decide WHEN to bench Donovan McNabb in favor of Christian Ponder (which - by the way - at the moment doesn't make Mike Shanahan look like so much of an idiot after the debacle in Washington last year... Just ask 'Sexy Rexy')... Probably the best time to usher in such a transition is during BYE weeks, so Vikings fans may have to wait... Also (& I'll go this far), you can't let a veteran like McNabb flame out with an 0-4 start & bench him... Let the man have SOME dignity & get him a win...
The Cardinals lost a game to the Giants last week in an EPIC meltdown where Eli Manning threw for over 300 yards in the last quarter... They had to deal with an adverse officiating call (which has been replayed many times by now)... I'm not sure the Cardinals have the guts & discipline to overcome that game (momentum wise) at the moment vs. a down & out (but VETERAN) Vikings squad that is desperate for a win... Beanie Wells scored 3 TD's last week, but may find tougher yards here...
I'll take the VIKINGS for (4 units)...
LATE GAMES
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (4:05 EDT)
Line: 49ers by 1
I know I sound like 'Mr. Expert' now & then when I say that what the media say are 'surprising/unexpected' starts for the Bills, Lions, Bengals, Redskins, Eagles, Chiefs, Steelers (whether unexpectedly GOOD or BAD)... are NOT surprising to me...
Then there's the curious case of the San Francisco 49ers... Save for the meltdown OT loss they had to the Cowboys, this team could be 4-0 as we speak... That said... I'm STILL not drinking the kool-aid...
The 49ers have beaten the Seahawks (COME ON MAN)... Barely beat the Bengals (in a weird game)... & had to mount a huge comeback vs. the Eagles last week (whereby the Eagles rookie kicker melted down & missed crucial game 'closing' FG's down the stretch)... To me, it seemed that the STATEMENT in that game was more by the football GODS 'against' the Dream Team Eagles, than it was on how the 49ers are really legit...
I suppose we shall see...
I think the Bucs ARE legit... I had them as a preseason pick to go to the playoffs (as a wildcard from the NFC South)... They look every much the team that I saw in the pre-season... They've only lost to the 4-0 Lions (a game in which they were competitive, in week 1)... They came back (on the road) from a huge hole to beat the Vikings in week 2 (the Vikings are BETTER than their (0-4) start belies... They scrapped out a win vs. a determined division rival (Falcons) in week 3... & they survived the national stage to win decisively against the Colts (also (0-4) on Monday Night Football...
Some are saying that the Bucs have two wins off of winless teams, but I think the style of those wins is more interesting... I'm not a big fan of looking at W/L records to determine how good or bad teams are...
There are opposing factors in this game (which are actually bad for both teams here)...
- The Bucs have to travel to the West Coast timezone (where they have not had much success in the past).
- The Bucs are traveling on a short week
- But REALLY, so are the 49ers (who have essentially been on the East Coast for the last 2 weeks)
- The 49ers are 'giving' points (after winning as dogs for two straight weeks)
I have to say that the Bucs defensive line may be able to handle the running game of the 49ers & force the game into the hands of Alex Smith... The 49ers are also capable of stopping the run, but LaGarrette Blount will give them all they can handle...
I'm really liking the way Josh Freeman is using all of his weapons (Benn, Preston, Mike Williams)... That, & his propensity to always keep his team believing he can stay in a game and win in the 4th Q is the deciding factor here...
I'll take the BUCCANEERS for (2 units)...
New York Jets at New England Patriots (4:15 EDT)
Line: Patriots by 8.5
After the dismantling of the (Nick Mangold-less) Jets by the Ravens on Sunday Night Football, this line has moved considerably...
I'll write more about this game as the week progresses... Right now I'm leaning towards the motivated Patriots, pending the status of Nick Mangold...
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (4:15 EDT)
Line: Chargers by 4
Nobody seems to want any part of the Broncos (even though the line opened at -6 and has since moved to -4)...
More observations as the week progresses...
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (8:20 EDT)
Line: Packers by 6
Everybody on board the Packers express... More observations as the week progresses...
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (8:30 EDT - ESPN)
Line: Lions by 5
Winner Winner Chicken Dinner...
Rival to the Packers express is the Lions express (I suppose every J6P just LOVES to give his hard earned cash to bookmakers in the name of supporting a #WINNER)... More observations as the week progresses...
I had to take a pause on the afternoon games yesterday... I just didn't like the way the lines were moving around... All of the 'picks' were going to be ZERO UNIT plays for me anyway... I can't really say who I'd have sided with on the Patriots - Jets... Interestingly, the game went to a 9 point victory (which means that some were getting the Jets +8.5 & others may have been getting 9 or 9.5... It's hard to say who was the winner there)...
The Denver game was the same... I have to admit I was siding with the BRONCOS in that spot (because I'd put them in a handicapping league that I'm in)... That line was -4.5 earlier in the week (which I was forced to 'lock in' at)... It went to 6, then came down to 5... Again, depending on what line you got, either side was a winner or loser for you...
There was no way I was going to go AGAINST the Packers, but I wasn't willing to put any units on them in that spot...
Vegas vs. the public was pretty even up until that point, so it was better to just stay away from the game as about 80% of the money was on the Packers...
Which bring us to tonight...
If the Lions win & cover here, Vegas will be in a hole because some of the larger favorites of interest won (Packers, Raiders, Patriots, Chargers)... The Giants losing & the Panthers covering the Saints helped their cause...
The only 'play' that I made was taking the Chiefs (over the Colts)... & have an open ended two team tease which was started with the Vikings (who came thru over the Cardinals)... So I have to choose one of these sides (Bears-Lions) tonight...
I have 6 points to play with here... It makes me NERVOUS that I was 8-4 in handicapping the earlier games, so I'm probably going to make an error here...
The logic says that the Lions (4-0) should be able to handle the struggling Bears "Fairley" (as in 'Nick') here... This will be the first Monday Night game in Detroit in quite awhile & I've learned NOT to fade that dynamic... If I wasn't forced to pick a side here, I would skip this game because I don't like all the public $$ sidled up with the Lions in what could be a trap...
The simple logic is that since I have a 6 point cushion to move the line any direction (due to the tease)... I ought to just move the line to Lions +.05 & be done with it...
This, as you can see is where Vegas is really brilliant with the lines sometimes... Because if the Lions happen to fall flat & lose, they bust out not only the ATS bettors, but they bust out the teases as well...
Not that I wish this on anyone, but this is the classic game that someone like Matt Stafford (or other key player), would go down with an injury... Either that, or Devin Hester takes a couple of kicks back to the house & somebody for Detroit puts the ball on the ground...
I really hate doing this, but I'm going to take the BEARS for (0 units)... (Partly because Clete Blakeman is the ref, so I expect yellow flags galore)...
