Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Week 14 NCAA Picks/Week 13 NFL Picks


Wednesday 9:00 EST

Thursday 9:15 EST
*NCAA & NFL THANKSGIVING DAY GAMES ~ unit pick changes below [line movements]; teaser scenarios removed due to line movements
Thursday 12:00 EST
*NO CHANGES ~ I'd considered taking the OVER on the first half line GB~DET on anything below 24.5, but it's 25.5... I'm OFF all GB~DET scenarios... If  someone wanted to take a shot here, they could HEDGE a +220 ML [on GB], with bumping the line 6 points [either way] in a teaser with GB or DET & see where that leads... But I'm OFF...See you at 4PM
Thursday 16:00 EST
LOL ~ I suppose the OVER on the 1st half line would have 'hit', but no problem ~ it would have been a sweat...

The line has quietly slid back to OAK [+8.5] here & the BAL-PIT line as moved back to [3]...

I'm gonna stick with OAK [zero units]... But  I'll toss them into a 3 team parlay...

OAK [+18.5]
BAL [+7]

1 unit [on that combo] (correct)

Friday 11:00 EST 
I'm gonna keep it simple today & go with only 2 NCAA games [below] until further notice...
Friday 15:00 EST
Friday 18:00 EST

Saturday 11:00 EST
Alright ~ Time to come forward with some picks... I'm glad I mostly stayed away from yesterday's action... The LAYING POINTS WITH QUALITY TEAMS, who have been riding that dynamic, finally took a little hit yesterday... I'm not sure it will continue into today... We'll see... Picks below [BOLDED = 'official"]
Saturday 15:00 EST 
There's too much uncertainty in the early games to endorse anything aggressively different in the afternoon yet... I'll wait until later... SAME ACTION as before...
Saturday 18:00 EST 

Sunday 12:00 EST
I hope everyone managed to stay alive with their bankrolls yesterday with all the upsets... I treaded water in NCAA games [5-6], but came out ONE UNIT ahead... In review ~ I had a feeling like something like this might happen so I'm NEVER disappointed NOT LOSING money... The question is this... The 'HOUSE' won big yesterday, so does it carry thru to NFL Sunday, or do the spreads start adjusting?... 
Sunday 12:30 EST [sorry I'm late ~ 12:50]
- adding a unit on Minnesota [-1.5]
- adding a unit on NY Jets [+1]
- adding 2 team tease [MINNESOTA + NEW ENGLAND] ~ 1 unit
- dropping NE [-7] to zero units
Sunday 15:00 EST
- adding 2 team tease [MINNESOTA + NEW ENGLAND] ~ 1 unitvv-
- dropping NE [-7] to zero units
- dropping NE [-7] to zero units
- dropping NE [-7] to zero units- dropping NE [-7] to zero units
Sunday 19:30 EST





[NOTE: until the picks appear in BOLD CAPS, they're unofficial ~ I usually simply assign 1 UNIT to all my college picks, but from now thru the rest of the season, I'll be doing various units on all games]

Thursday, November 28

Texas Tech at TEXAS [-4.5] ~ 0 units (correct)

TEXAS ~ I started off having a unit on the Longhorns here but I backed off...
MARSHALL ~ East Carolina has been feasting mostly [AT HOME], they beat NC State last week on the road, but NC State was a disinterested team
NEBRASKA ~ The Huskers need to prove that they deserve to land somewhere interesting for Bowl season... Think it doesn't matter because they're already bowl eligible?... The difference is this... They won't make the Rose Bowl or any BCS Bowls, so it's most likely either Capital One, Outback, or Gator... If they slip up, they could wind up in 'Heart of Dallas'... Capital One carries a payday of $4.5 million... Outback & Gator $3.5 million... Heart of Dallas $1.1 million... So yeah, there's a little something to play for here [not for the 'kids' of course]...

Friday, November 29

East Carolina at MARSHALL [-3] (correct)

Iowa at NEBRASKA [-2] (incorrect)

Saturday, November 30

Boston College at SYRACUSE [+2.5] ~ 1 unit (correct)

Wake Forest at VANDERBILT [-14] ~ 2 units (incorrect)
Duke at NORTH CAROLINA [-5] ~ 1 unit (incorrect)
OHIO STATE [-14.5] at Michigan ~ 0 units (incorrect)
UCLA at USC [-3.5] ~ 0 units (incorrect)
Texas A&M at MISSOURI [-4] ~ 2 units (correct)

ALABAMA [-11] at Auburn ~ 1 unit (incorrect)
NOTRE DAME [+16] at Stanford ~ 0 units (correct)

Though there are many pros & cons to make a case for supporting one team or another... What was the final 'DECISION MAKER' that made me make this call?

SYRACUSE ~ needs win to become bowl eligible
VANDERBILT ~ Wake Forest is outclassed in ACC [expects to compete vs. SEC]?
NORTH CAROLINA ~ Wait! are we talking hoops here?
OHIO STATE ~ I'll make a pick here, but I vow NEVER to lay any 'units' on a Big 10 game [especially Ohio State]
USC ~ If you read my comments last week, I think UCLA has been running on fumes... I'm not 'thrilled' about laying 3.5 with ANY USC team though.. UCLA couldn't overcome Arizona State last week despite the fact that ASU put on the worst display of 'tackling' in the history of college football...
MISSOURI ~ Last week I was about to write that I think Jonathan Pigskin might 'mail in' the rest of the season... He didn't do anything to prove that theory wrong... He reminds me of the bullshit that Colt McCoy pulled in his last games with Texas...
ALABAMA ~ They should call this the AL-O-BAMA BOWL [because of his habit of calling everything he's involved with the 'MOST IMPORTANT [insert whatever meaningless BULLSHIT OF THE MOMENT YOU NEED TO KEEP YOURSELF IN THE NEWS HERE] ~~~ IN HISTORY!!!... 'AL-O-BAMA' [the TEFLON man] wins the IRON BOWL...
NOTRE DAME ~ this game meant so much more last year... I'll take the points...      

2013 NCAA Picks (YTD weeks 1-13 picks ATS aggregate): 53-40-3
2013 NCAA Picks (YTD weeks 1-13 'unit picks' aggregate differential): (+9 units)

2013 NCAA Picks (week 1): 2-3-0
2013 NCAA Picks (week 2): 0-0-0
2013 NCAA Picks (week 3): 3-3-0
2013 NCAA Picks (week 4): 4-2-0
2013 NCAA Picks (week 5): 5-2-0
2013 NCAA Picks (week 6): 4-4-0
2013 NCAA Picks (week 7): 6-2-0
2013 NCAA Picks (week 8): 6-5-1
2013 NCAA Picks (week 9): 3-4-1
2013 NCAA Picks (week 10): 8-4-0
2013 NCAA Picks (week 11): 6-5-1
2013 NCAA Picks (week 12): 1-2-0
2013 NCAA Picks (week 13): 5-4-0
2013 NCAA Picks (week 14): 5-6-0* 


*picks will appear as BOLD CAPS when ready 

[before the final picks are made, the team with the point spread pick aside its name is LIKELY to be the selection, pending any last minute changes]


~The Raiders invade Dallas for the annual Turkey Day Classic led by a 23yo organ donor~

"It's called fuckin' STRATEGY alright?!"

The FINAL POINTSPREAD that I use to determine wins & losses are the ones which are archived on:


GREEN BAY [+6] at Detroit ~ 0 units (incorrect)
OAKLAND [+8.5] at Dallas ~ 0 units (correct)
Pittsburgh at BALTIMORE [-3] ~ 0 units (incorrect)


GREEN BAY ~ I don't have much faith in this pick, but Detroit's record on Thanksgiving is brutal... The ZERO units reflect my fear of a backdoor cover... If Detroit gets up by double digits, let the sloppiness begin
OAKLAND ~ Perception vs. Reality... Seriously ~ I watch a lot of football & my first thought was that Dallas is solid on Thanksgiving Day... Reality?... Over the past 3 seasons, Dallas is 6-13 ATS at home, while Oakland is 12-7 ATS as road dogs... Now ~ all those games were not on Thanksgiving, but still
BALTIMORE ~ Are you kidding me?... 7 out of 8 of the last Steelers~Ravens games have ended up by one of the teams winning by EXACTLY 3 points... The thing is, as much as everyone talks about Flacco vs. Rothliesberger, Big Ben has only beaten Flacco ONCE at M&T (courtesy of a Troy Polamalu strip sack converted to a TD late in the game in '10)... It's probably OK to lay the points here, but you might expect a PUSH [or simply toss this game into a teaser]


[check back prior to kickoff for last minute pick or unit pick changes]
I use the final print on:



TENNESSEE [+3.5] at Indianapolis ~ 1 unit
Jacksonville at CLEVELAND [-7] ~ 0 units
TAMPA BAY [+7] at Carolina ~ 0 units
Chicago at MINNESOTA [-1] ~ 2 units
ARIZONA [+3] at Philadelphia ~ 0 units
Miami at NY JETS [+1] ~ 1 unit
NEW ENGLAND [-7] at Houston ~ 0 units

TENNESSEE ~ Too bad we're not getting more points here... We were getting 3 points with the Titans AT HOME a few weeks ago... In any case, what has really changed since then?... The Titans still have only given up 2 passing TD's to WR's all season... This figures to be a close game, so I'll take the points...
CLEVELAND ~ Jacksonville plays next Thursday Night... There are some 'expert football gurus' on the web that think you should FADE those teams on Sunday... So although it's ABSOLUTELY RIDICULOUS to lay 7 points [with Brandon Weedon], I'm going to try out the logic [& blame it on 'the other guy' if I lose]... I'm sure as hell not gonna put any units on it though...
TAMPA BAY ~ Frankly ~ I'm not on the Carolina bandwagon... They play too many close games [so why lay a TD]?
MINNESOTA ~ I think Chicago is garbage... Minny plays better at home & if they start to get Cordarelle Patterson the rock, they could actually win big here...
ARIZONA ~ I can't handicap this game at all... But my [NON EXISTENT] sponsors have put me on a word count & told me I have to write something, anything or they won't pay me [which means I'll lose my 'welfare queen' status... So here goes... kielbasa kielbasa kielbasa HAIRCUTS kielbasa kielbasa kielbasa kielbasa HAIRCUTS kielbasa kielbasa kielbasa ON THE BRINK kielbasa kielbasa kielbasa HAIRCUTS kielbasa kielbasa kielbasa HAIRCUTS... Now... Where's my OBAMAFONE?
NY JETS ~ I said a few weeks ago that Miami might try to secretly 'mail in' the rest of the season to improve their draft status... Last week, a team that had some pride could have managed to pull out a nice upset win over Carolina... Instead ~ their SLEAZY owner probably called down to the sidelines & told them to take a dive... He knows he can blame it all on Richie Incognito in the end [because that's the only kind of shit that people remember]...
NEW ENGLAND ~ Houston is playing on Thursday Night as well [see above]... Of course, here... The aforementioned 'expert football guru' who rants & raves about 'LOOKING AHEAD' will; say "see ~ I TOLD YOU" if New England wins by 3 TD's... & of course it will have NOTHING TO DO with the fact that NEW ENGLAND is a vastly superior team, that HOUSTON has quit, that its defensive coordinator, that looks like the Sta Puft Marshmallow man, sucks, or that NEW ENGLAND is now playing for home field advantage in the playoffs [which improves their chances of going to the Super Bowl from 35% to 65%]... Yeah ~ THAT MUST BE IT... Houston is going to SUCK here [because they're 'looking ahead' to Jacksonville on Thursday]... It's the first thing they teach you in the 'HANDICAPPING FOR DUMMIES' book [though I wouldn't know because I'm lazy & only read the 'Cliff's Notes' version of 'Handicapping for Dummies'...

[FINAL late game picks & units will be posted near the conclusion of the EARLY GAMES]

Cincinnati at SAN DIEGO [+2.5] ~ 0 units
ST. LOUIS [+7.5] at San Francisco ~ 2 units
DENVER [-5.5] at Kansas City ~ 0 units
ATLANTA [+5] at Buffalo ~ 1 unit

SAN DIEGO ~ 'SAINT DOUG'???... How did he do in the Roman Colosseum against the Lions & Tigers?... Maybe he should have worn the POWDER BLUE Toga!...
SAN FRANCISCO ~ 'SAINT FRANCIS' against 'SAINT' LOUIS???... Well, let's see... 'SAINT' Francis lost to the 'SAINTS' 2 weeks ago... Hmmm ~ That's a head scratcher...
DENVER ~ check back for comments
BUFFALO ~ OK ~ Here's all I have to say [a picture is worth 1,000 words]... Well anyway ~ they shouldn't worry because the NY GIANTS [who are from New Jersey], are playing the WASHINGTON Redskins [who play in Landover, Maryland ~ & have their practice facility in VIRGINIA]...



2013 Atlanta Falcons Fight Song [above]

"and farther below Lake Ontario, takes in what Lake Erie can send her"


NY GIANTS [pk] at Washington ~ 0 units

NY GIANTS ~ I decided I'm going to be the bookie tonight... I'm taking 1000 units on each side [& banking 100 units ~ unless it's a TIE, which is probably what will happen]...

 New Orleans at SEATTLE [-6] ~ 0 units

SEATTLE ~ I guess we're going with Seattle here [unhappy to be laying 6 points]...


2013 NFL Picks (YTD weeks 1-12 picks aggregate): 85-80-7*
2013 NFL Picks (YTD weeks 1-12 'unit picks' aggregate differential): (+19 units)
2013 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'exotics' differential): (+0)

2013 NFL Picks (week 1): 5-10-1
2013 NFL Picks (week 2): 11-4-0
2013 NFL Picks (week 3): 9-7-0
2013 NFL Picks (week 4): 5-9-1
2013 NFL Picks (week 5): 9-5-0
2013 NFL Picks (week 6): 8-6-0
2013 NFL Picks (week 7): 8-6-1
2013 NFL Picks (week 8): 7-6-0
2013 NFL Picks (week 9): 4-7-0
2013 NFL Picks (week 10): 7-6-1
2013 NFL Picks (week 11): 4-8-3
2013 NFL Picks (week 12): 8-6-0
2013 NFL Picks (week 13): 1-2-0*
  *ALL picks ATS [against the spread]

For those of you who are new to this site, my picks [& 'unit' assignment] are largely determined by the overall skew between how the public is doing versus the Las Vegas sportsbook sharps at any given moment...



Some have been asking me why this site is called FANTASY SPORTS NATION [yet is more dedicated to NFL & NCAA picks]... The PLAN is to incorporate more FANTASY data over time...

In the meantime... I haven't bothered to share any of these results yet, but as we're nearing the FANTASY PLAYOFFS, here's a snapshot of the 3 'money leagues' I play in... [I've blacked out most of the team names]...

LEAGUE 1 ~ 10 team $100 per team buy in [4 teams qualify for playoffs]...
[this league is somewhat favorable to QB TD's & PPR]

League 1 Standings

LEAGUE 2 ~ 10 team $250 per team buy in [6 teams qualify for playoffs]...

League 2 Standings

LEAGUE 3 ~ 14 team $200 per team buy in [6 teams qualify for playoffs]... 

League 3 Standings