Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Week 13 NCAA Picks/Week 12 NFL Picks

[UPDATE: Sunday 12:10 EST]
[SD] ~ King Dunlap (OT) ~ Out
[TEN] ~ Line movement; TEN -2.5
[DET] ~ Nate Burleson (WR) ~ Active
[DAL] ~ Miles Austin (WR) ~ Active 

[UPDATE: Sunday 12:30 EST] 
[DAL] ~ QB coach Wade Phillips will move to the booth (with OC Bill Callahan) to observe coverages 'from the sky'... Callahan will still call the plays, but HC Jason Garrett will be in the helmet headphone of Tony Romo for the play relay...
[HOU] ~ Line movement; [-10.5] *pick change below
[CLE] ~ Line movement; [-2.5] *UNIT pick change below
[BAL] ~ Line movement; [-4] *pick change below
[GB] ~ Line movement; [-5] *UNIT pick change below

[UPDATE: Sunday 12:55 EST]
 [GB] ~ Line movement; [-5.5]
[STL] ~ Line movement; [-2.5]

[UPDATE: Sunday 15:00 EST]
 [AZ] ~ Line movement; [-3.5] *pick change below [+units added]

[UPDATE: Sunday 20:00 EST]
 [NE] ~ Line movement; [+2] *units added ~ NFL PICK OF YEAR

[UPDATE: Monday 6:00AM EST]
 [SF] ~ Line movement; SF [-4]

 [SF] ~  no changes

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[until the picks appear in BOLD CAPS, they're unofficial ~ all 1 unit*]

Thursday, November 21

no action

Friday, November 22

NAVY [+1.5] at San Jose St *pick change ~ 1 unit (correct)

What finally sold me on taking NAVY & the points?

Ken Niumatalolo [as Navy Head Coach since 2002]

AWAY DOG ~ 25-11-0 [+6.6]

HOME DOG 4-5-0 [-2.2]
HOME FAV 20-23-0 [-0.2]
AWAY FAV 8-10-0 [+1.0]
Ron Caragher [SJSU head coach as of this year]

HOME FAV 1-2-0

Saturday, November 23

Indiana at OHIO STATE [-33.5] (incorrect)
East Carolina at NC STATE [+5.5] (incorrect)
Virginia at MIAMI [-20.5] (incorrect)
W Kentucky at TEXAS STATE [+5.5] *pick change (incorrect)
MICHIGAN [+5.5] at Iowa (correct)
ARIZONA STATE [-3] at UCLA (correct)
Oregon at ARIZONA [+18] (correct)
Baylor at OKLAHOMA STATE [+8] (correct)

Though there are many pros & cons to make a case for supporting one team or another... What was the final 'DECISION MAKER' that made me make this call?

OHIO STATE ~ BCS disrespect
NC STATE ~ East Carolina unproven in non conference road games
MIAMI ~ People have given up on Miami & Virginia isn't a very talented team
TEXAS STATE ~ Various STATFOX trends
MICHIGAN ~ Just a 'feeling'
ARIZONA STATE ~ ASU is 'rarely' an away favorite in conference... Plus UCLA is a public supported darling who has been running on fumes due to numerous injuries & have USC coming up next week
ARIZONA ~ RichRod Superbowl II [almost took down UCLA]... Last chance for '13 to do something impressive at home
OKLAHOMA STATE ~ Baylor isn't as effective in away games vs. quality opponents

2013 NCAA Picks (YTD weeks 1-12 picks aggregate): 48-36-3
2013 NCAA Picks (YTD weeks 1-12 'unit picks' aggregate differential): (+8 units)

2013 NCAA Picks (week 1): 2-3-0
2013 NCAA Picks (week 2): 0-0-0
2013 NCAA Picks (week 3): 3-3-0
2013 NCAA Picks (week 4): 4-2-0
2013 NCAA Picks (week 5): 5-2-0
2013 NCAA Picks (week 6): 4-4-0
2013 NCAA Picks (week 7): 6-2-0
2013 NCAA Picks (week 8): 6-5-1
2013 NCAA Picks (week 9): 3-4-1
2013 NCAA Picks (week 10): 8-4-0
2013 NCAA Picks (week 11): 6-5-1
2013 NCAA Picks (week 12): 1-2-0
2013 NCAA Picks (week 13): 5-4-0* 


*picks will appear as BOLD CAPS when ready 

[before the final picks are made, the team with the point spread pick aside its name is LIKELY to be the selection, pending any last minute changes]

BYE WEEK: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Seattle

[FOLKS: Because there are some 'newcomers' to this site... So as to resolve discrepancies on whether picks were accurate or not... The FINAL POINTSPREAD that I use to determine wins & losses are the ones which are archived on

New Orleans at ATLANTA [+7] ~ 0 units (correct)


[check back prior to kickoff for last minute pick or unit pick changes]
I use the final print on:


TAMPA BAY [+7] at Detroit ~ 0 units (correct)
JACKSONVILLE [+10.5] at Houston ~ 0 units *pick change (correct)
Minnesota at GREEN BAY [-5.5] ~ 1 unit *unit pick change (incorrect)
SAN DIEGO [+3] at Kansas City ~ 0 units (correct)
Carolina at MIAMI [+4.5] ~ 1 unit (correct)
Pittsburgh at CLEVELAND [-2.5] ~ 1 unit *unit pick change (incorrect)
CHICAGO [+2.5] at St. Louis ~ 1 unit (incorrect)
NY JETS [+4] at Baltimore ~ 0 units *pick change (incorrect)

AGGREGATE ~ I pretty much hate 'all' these games [in terms of handicapping value] ~ but I'll do my best below...
TAMPA BAY ~ see above [when all else fails ~ take the points]
HOUSTON ~ This is too many points to lay ~ but BE MY GUEST in betting on Jacksonville
GREEN BAY ~ Some are saying that 'Tolzien' is a functional QB [but the FACT is that he's put only 13 points on the board in each of the last 2 weeks]... How can you bet on either of these teams?... Adrian Peterson [PROBABLE ~ playing in 7 degree wind chill with a groin injury]
SAN DIEGO ~ This is 100% based on the return of King Dunlap[Gotta go check Phil Rivers in cold weather]
MIAMI ~ This is 100% based on a 'let down' factor that Carolina might be facing [NE last week ~ NO next week]... Hardly wagerable though because of the Miami locker room controversy... Anyway ~ the MAIN REASON for suggesting MIAMI is something I cannot publish ~ sorry
CLEVELAND ~ Cleveland "D", IMO, will be anxious to strut their stuff vs. a division rival
CHICAGO ~ Kellen Clemens... yuk!... Only interest in this game is if Zac Stacy can get your team FANTASY points
BALTIMORE ~ M&T Bank Stadium is tough place for visitors to play... However, this line keeps shifting... Anything under a field goal favors a play on the Ravens

[late game picks & units will be posted near the conclusion of the EARLY GAMES]

TENNESSEE [-2.5] at Oakland ~ 0 units (correct)
INDIANAPOLIS [+3.5] at Arizona ~ 1 unit *pick change [units added] (incorrect)
Dallas at NY GIANTS [-2.5] ~ 2 units (incorrect)

TENNESSEE ~ check back for comments
ARIANS[ZONA] ~ check back for comments ~ which I think I just subtly suggested something there
NY GIANTS ~ check back for comments


Denver at NEW ENGLAND [+2] ~ 10 units (correct)

NFL Pick of the YEAR

DENVER ~ Wes Welker [PROBABLE]... 30% chance of snow...

Peyton Manning and Tom Brady 

Since 2001 - When Gametime Temperature is 32 Degrees or Lower

Manning Brady
W-L 2-5 23-5
TD-Int 6-10 48-21
TD pct 2.6 5.2
Int pct 4.3 2.3
*Including postseason


SAN FRANCISCO [-5.5] at Washington ~ 0 units

SAN FRANCISCO ~ Line had bounced up to 5.5 and zipped all the way back down to 4 after the Sunday results [now back to 5.5 ~ 67% of $$ on road favorite]...


2013 NFL Picks (YTD weeks 1-11 picks aggregate): 77-74-7*
2013 NFL Picks (YTD weeks 1-11 'unit picks' aggregate differential): (+14 units)
2013 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'exotics' differential): (-1)

2013 NFL Picks (week 1): 5-10-1
2013 NFL Picks (week 2): 11-4-0
2013 NFL Picks (week 3): 9-7-0
2013 NFL Picks (week 4): 5-9-1
2013 NFL Picks (week 5): 9-5-0
2013 NFL Picks (week 6): 8-6-0
2013 NFL Picks (week 7): 8-6-1
2013 NFL Picks (week 8): 7-6-0
2013 NFL Picks (week 9): 4-7-0
2013 NFL Picks (week 10): 7-6-1
2013 NFL Picks (week 11): 4-8-3
2013 NFL Picks (week 12): 8-6-0*
  *ALL picks ATS [against the spread]

For those of you who are new to this site, my picks [& 'unit' assignment] are largely determined by the overall skew between how the public is doing versus the Las Vegas sportsbook sharps at any given moment...

~~~WALTERFOOTBALL.COM (text add-ons ~ week 12 NFL)~~~

Thursday, November 21, 2013

You made a comment to me before that you only come here for IMPORTANT DATA each week [& skip all the BULLS***]... That's great!... Me too!...

I'll leave this for you [so you can decide whether or not it's RELEVANT]... Of course, I could write this on my blog, but since you don't go there, you'd never have the chance to see if it's relevant or not... It's FREE... I 'hope' in some way, it can make you [& others money] in the future... It's hard for me to imagine why I'm HATED for dropping this piece of data [which you'll find NOWHERE, because I came up with it on my own, &, by MIRACLE, I WANT TO MAKE MONEY TOO]...

This has to do with... EVERY WEEK... The 'eye rolling' I do when I read the 'LOOKING AHEAD' angle which is used to handicap game analysis [& ultimately 'unit selection]...

I could take this all the way back 6 years [for as long as I've read WALTERFOOTBALL]... But I'll simply give you 2013YTD because it's the most fresh analysis...

would apply to handicapping Sunday games whereby the team has to play 'in 4 days' [& Walts consistent text in implying that's a relevant factor ~ which I'm not TOTALLY arguing it's NOT]... The following is the 2013 list of 'Thursday' Games [which is the relevant feature here]... The games are then retrofitted with the results of the previous Sunday, in an attempt to see if NEXT THURSDAY was really on the minds of the teams in question on Sunday]...

week 2 NE 13 ~ NYJ 10 /New England 23 Buffalo 21 /NY Jets 18 Tampa Bay 17 
week 3 KC 26 ~ PHI 16/ Kansas City 17 Dallas 16 /San Diego 33 Philadelphia 30 
week 4 SF 35 ~ STL 11/ Indianapolis 27 SF 7/ Dallas 31 St. Louis 7
week 5 CLE 37 ~ BUF 24/Cleveland 17 Cincinnati 6 / Buffalo 23 Baltimore 20
week 6 CHI 27 ~ NYG 21/New Orleans 26 Chicago 18 /Philadelphia 36 NY Giants 21
week 7 SEA 34 ~ ARI 22/Seattle 20 Tennessee 13 / SF 32 Arizona 20
week 8 CAR 31 ~ TB 13/Carolina 30 St Louis 15 /Atlanta 31 Tampa Bay 23
week 9 MIA 22 ~ CIN 20/Cincinnati 49 NY Jets 9 / New England 27 Miami 17
week 10 MIN 34 WAS 27/Dallas 27 Minnesota 23 /Washington 30 San Diego 24 [OT]
week 11 IND 30 TEN 27/St Louis 38 Indianapolis 8 /Jacksonville 29 Tennessee 27
week 12
NO vs. ATL/New Orleans 23 San Francisco 20 /Tampa Bay 41 Atlanta 28

Let's take these week by week to determine if the BROAD BRUSH thesis is valid [which means that you need to focus on the perception of the 'effort' of the teams in question on the Sunday PREVIOUS to the Thursday Night game ~ which, in turn, would determine if the 'EFFORT' was, INDEED, undermined by Walt's, almost 100% endorsement that 'LOOKING AHEAD' in the NFL is a wagerable factor]...

week 2
I can hardly say either NE or the Jets were thinking about next Thursday in these contests which required 100% attention to pull out victories...

It would seem to me, in retrospect, that both of these contests were teams that were capable of being evenly matched based on the personnel on the field at the time... The OUTCOME of either game was NOT determined by a lack of focus 'looking ahead' to next Thursday...

week 4
A case of 'LOOKING AHEAD' could possibly be made here... Or INSTEAD, was it because the 49ers were missing Vernon Davis & were in an identity crisis because of having just lost to the Seahawks & deciding to get back to a running game?

week 5
I can't imagine, with Cleveland beating a division rival on the road, & Buffalo winning a conference upset, that EITHER was 'looking ahead'... Furthermore ~ It's hard to make a case that 'looking ahead', ultimately had any handicapping relevance in a game where Brian Hoyer & EJ Manuel go down with injuries in the 1st quarter... Either that or WALT is the greatest 'LOOKING AHEAD' guru of all time!

week 6
So you're gonna tell me that the Bears werer 'looking ahead' to a winless NY Giants [with no running backs], or FOCUSED on Drew Brees & Co. in their house?... Or that the Giants were 'looking ahead' to having to sign Brandon Jacobs off the sofa while playing their all time most hated rival Philadelphia?

week 7
Look ahead?... Meh... Perhaps... Seattle didn't 'cover' because of a botched FG attempt that got returned for a TD right before halftime [so maybe the 'long snapper' was looking ahead]... Arizona was busy putting up more offensive yards than the 49ers in Candlestick Park, so that doesn't bode very well for them to be 'looking ahead'

week 8
Carolina was trashing the Rams [including knocking Sam Bradford out for the season & getting into fights [which a clear case of indifference]... Meanwhile ~ TB was trying to win its first game with Mike Glennon only a 2nd week starter... I'm sure Glennon & Schiano ONLY had Carolina on their minds...

week 9
I'm sure Cincinnati was 'looking ahead' to South Beach [while laying 49 points on the Jets], &, of course, Miami could not only give a shit about beating New England, but they KNEW in advance that Jonathan Martin & Richie Incognito would have a little lovers spat a day later...

week 10
It's uncontestable that Minnesota covered [& almost beat] vs. Dallas on the road... Meanwhile ~ the Redskins season, which was on the line, could have cared less about beating a visiting San Diego [especially in overtime]... All they could think about was playing a game in the Metrodome 4 days later...

week 11
Was Indy 'looking ahead'?... Or was it [as I commented here last week & got ridiculed for], because they've struggled since the Denver game [losing Reggie Wayne, but also key personnel on defense at the NT 2CB, & S positions]... Tennessee was so looking ahead that they lost Jake Locker for the season in the middle of the Jacksonville loss...

week 12
So great... Here we have it... I guess the Saints were 'LUCKY' to beat SF last Sunday [because they were surely 'looking ahead' to a decimated Atlanta team...


I'll 'look ahead' myself [& make the prediction that most people who try to win money on football games ought to be more discerning with regards to the advice they cling to ~ especially when it's the SAME ADVICE, week after week, for what I remember as 6 years running]...

In any case... IT'S YOUR CHOICE!