2012 NFL Picks (YTD regular season picks aggregate): 32-27-2
2012 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'unit picks' aggregate differential): (-6)
*all picks 'ATS' (against the spread)
2012 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'unit picks' aggregate differential): (-6)
2012 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'exotics' differential): (-2)
2012 NFL Picks (week 1): 6-9-0
2012 NFL Picks (week 2): 8-5-2
2012 NFL Picks (week 3): 7-9-0
2012 NFL Picks (week 4): 11-4-0
*ALL picks ATS [against the spread]
~~~
2012 NCAA Picks season aggregate: 8-1-0
2012 NCAA 'unit picks' aggregate: (+7)
2012 NFL Picks (week 2): 8-5-2
2012 NFL Picks (week 3): 7-9-0
2012 NFL Picks (week 4): 11-4-0
*ALL picks ATS [against the spread]
~~~
NCAA Preview [10/1/12]: I suppose I should be giddy about my 6-0-0 start to picking NCAA games but I'm really not... I still think picking NCAA games is a crapshoot (equivalent only to picking NFL games that are being officiated by zebras fresh from the Lingerie League & Arena Football)... Still ~ I have a few 'themes' I'm working on this year... Randomly ~ here they are...
- These 'conference' switchovers seem to be providing new dynamics & opportunities
- I like these 'Louisiana littleguys' [Lafayette & Monroe] & have been fading LSU (except when they play Idaho)
- The Big 10 blows goats
- The SEC is 'overrated' (top to bottom)
- PAC 12 is sneaky (top to bottom)
- The playoff system is offering a different dynamic in terms of 'vanity wins'
- Big 12 may be the most underrated conference (after having almost been given up for dead)
- Florida State will probably end up choking
- Virginia Tech will probably come back (after being written off, again)
- Alabama is the clear cut favorite to win the national championship (until further notice)
This week I'm looking at Syracuse [Friday], plus Kansas State, Virginia Tech, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, TCU, Marshall, New Mexico State, Louisiana Lafayette, Oregon State, & UCLA as possible plays... I'll end up whittling those down to 3 selections & a possible Friday [&/or] midweek game...
EDIT [10/5/12]: Final NCAA Picks for Week 6:
I'm tossing out the Syracuse pick (as the line has shifted to the 'Cuse as favorites & I don't like them in a favorite role & preferred them as a home dog pick)... TCU is being tossed on account of their QB being suspended, & I'm not trusing the line movements & public support on some of the other games...
EDIT [10/5/12]: Final NCAA Picks for Week 6:
KANSAS STATE (-24.5) vs. Kansas ~ correct
LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE (-23) vs. Tulane ~ correct
UCLA (-3) at Cal ~ incorrect
I'm tossing out the Syracuse pick (as the line has shifted to the 'Cuse as favorites & I don't like them in a favorite role & preferred them as a home dog pick)... TCU is being tossed on account of their QB being suspended, & I'm not trusing the line movements & public support on some of the other games...
2012 NCAA Picks season aggregate: 8-1-0
2012 NCAA 'unit picks' aggregate: (+7)
*all picks 'ATS' (against the spread)
---
PREVIEW: See what happens to handicapping when we get some 'real' NFL refs officiating games?... I'd been sub .500 thru the first three weeks, but rebounded with an 11-4 week this time around... I'm still trying to dig myself out of a hole that the replacement refs put me in but hopefully that will come over time... I certainly can't promise to go 11-4 every week, put at least I feel that the art of 'handicapping' is back on track (if only because I KNOW who the crooked refs are in the 'union' & was fishing around with the replacements...
---
WEEK 5 NFL PICKS
WEEK 5 NFL PICKS
THURSDAY GAMES
Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams
Line: Cardinals by 1.5
The onus is always on the VISITOR in these Thursday Night games to avoid costly mistakes & overcome a hostile crowd... The Cardinals are now 8-2 over their last 10 NFL games... I'm still waiting to see if Darnell Dockett will play here... The Rams played inspired against the Seahawks last Sunday (but ther wins against both the Seahawks & Redskins are somewhat suspect (especially where the Redskins lost 3 key defensive personnel during the game & the Rams were 'gifted' a stupid personal foul penalty at the end of the game)...The Cards might have been 'look ahead' mode in their lackluster performance vs. the Dolphins...
CARDINALS for (0 units)...
*pick change
EDIT [10/5]: I should have stayed wth my original pick [Rams], but got coaxed into switching sides because Darnell Dockett was suiting up... Not a big deal as I hadn't planned on putting any units on the game anyway... The takeaway here is that my overall thesis is correct... Visiting teams (especially in divisional games), have a HUGE dis-advantage in these short week [Thursday] games... It's almost like the entire offensive line gets 'smoked' on account of crowd noise and it becomes a track meet for padding defensive stat categories... I'd suggest anyone who has offensive fantasy football players on their rosters who are playing in Thursday games, to SIT those players... In one of my leagues, I picked up the Rams DEFENSE on a whim (& got rewarded for it)... OTOH ~ I got killed starting Danny Amendola a couple leagues because Patrick Peterson had him on lockdown [or, Sam Bradford never looked his way when he had clearly beaten a 1 on 1 coverage]...
(some PICK & UNIT changes below ~ see also 'EXOTIC' picks for 'TEASER' games)
*also note: I have been getting numerous requests via e-mail to re-install the WEEK BY WEEK links on the right colum of the blog page (as I had last year)... I'll get those links up shortly ~ as I mentioned before, I'm getting a slow start this year because the NFL refs debacle had me dis-interested for awhile at the start of the season...
*pick change
EDIT [10/5]: I should have stayed wth my original pick [Rams], but got coaxed into switching sides because Darnell Dockett was suiting up... Not a big deal as I hadn't planned on putting any units on the game anyway... The takeaway here is that my overall thesis is correct... Visiting teams (especially in divisional games), have a HUGE dis-advantage in these short week [Thursday] games... It's almost like the entire offensive line gets 'smoked' on account of crowd noise and it becomes a track meet for padding defensive stat categories... I'd suggest anyone who has offensive fantasy football players on their rosters who are playing in Thursday games, to SIT those players... In one of my leagues, I picked up the Rams DEFENSE on a whim (& got rewarded for it)... OTOH ~ I got killed starting Danny Amendola a couple leagues because Patrick Peterson had him on lockdown [or, Sam Bradford never looked his way when he had clearly beaten a 1 on 1 coverage]...
(some PICK & UNIT changes below ~ see also 'EXOTIC' picks for 'TEASER' games)
*also note: I have been getting numerous requests via e-mail to re-install the WEEK BY WEEK links on the right colum of the blog page (as I had last year)... I'll get those links up shortly ~ as I mentioned before, I'm getting a slow start this year because the NFL refs debacle had me dis-interested for awhile at the start of the season...
SUNDAY EARLY GAMES
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins
Line: Falcons by 3
You have to give a lot of credit to the Falcons for pulling out the home win vs. the Panthers last week... It is well documented that the Falcons play much better at home than they do on the road (yet they have managed wins at Kansas City & San Diego already this year)... Offensively, they can put up points seemingly at will & that should be beneficial considering that Washington is still missing a lot of key personnel in it's defensive secondary... Julio Jones appears to have a hand injury which is why his performance declined last week...
Washington had an easy victory in hand last week vs. Tampa Bay that they almost botched thanks to 3 missed FG's by Billy Cundiff that never let them put the game out of reach... I was surprised as hell when he nailed the game winner as time expired... I just can't lay units on a team that has issues with its kicking game... Cundiff may be out of the league shortly (& partly because the new kickoff rules don't put a premium on kickers who can kick the ball 80 yards out of the end zone)...
FALCONS for (0 units)...
*unit pick change
Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers by 3
Whatever you want to say about the Eagles, they're 3-1 right now & didn't turn the ball over once vs. the Giants Sunday Night...
Still ~ This is a tough spot for the Eagles, going on the road to play an out of conference rival, who, despite the proximity, doesn't represent a huge rivalry game... The Eagles have to play divisional games in a couple of weeks with the Lions peppered in, (while the Steelers are coming off a BYE week, needing a win to keep pace in the AFC North with Baltimore & Cincy, & dropped the 'pre-BYE' game in unchacteristic fashion to Oakland)...
Rashard Mendenhall may make his return to action in this game... Watch for line movements... I think that Vegas tried to hook a lot of Eagles bettors with a (-3.5) line off the Sunday Night victory...
Still ~ This is a tough spot for the Eagles, going on the road to play an out of conference rival, who, despite the proximity, doesn't represent a huge rivalry game... The Eagles have to play divisional games in a couple of weeks with the Lions peppered in, (while the Steelers are coming off a BYE week, needing a win to keep pace in the AFC North with Baltimore & Cincy, & dropped the 'pre-BYE' game in unchacteristic fashion to Oakland)...
Rashard Mendenhall may make his return to action in this game... Watch for line movements... I think that Vegas tried to hook a lot of Eagles bettors with a (-3.5) line off the Sunday Night victory...
STEELERS for (4 units)...
*unit pick change (more units on Steelers)
Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts
Line: Packers by 7
First of all I have to wish Indy coach Chuck Pagano (who was diagnosed with a form of treatable leukemia ~ but will be out 6-8 weeks) a speedy recovery...
I hate to do this, but the pattern is clear when a team loses it's head coach (or replaces one mid-season)... Just ask the Saints (but that's only one of multiple examples)... It's just too hard for a team to adjust quickly (despite the fact that the Colts are coming off a BYE week)... They're still inexperienced & have to play a Green Bay team that is still pissed off about the Seattle loss (& the fact that the refs almost cost them a game the week before vs. New Orleans (with about a half dozen poor calls)...
Here you also have Green Bay center Jeff Saturday (formerly with the Colts & together with Payton Manning for all those years) coming back into the stadium to play his former team...
I think the Packers should ring this one up easily... I'm only not making it a full unit play because I hate laying touchdowns on the road in the NFL...
PACKERS for (2 units)...
*unit pick change (less units on Packers)
Cleveland Browns at New York Football Giants
Line: Giants by 9.5
This is a horrible spot for the Giants who not only are coming off a closely fought matchup against a divisional foe last week, but are staring down a rematch of last years NFC Championship in San Francisco next week & the Steelers after that... The Giants are still without Hakeem Nicks & the Javier Bardem's of the world just arent going to cut the mustard week in & week out... What's possibly more devastating is that their entire defensive secondary is gutted...
Fortunately, Brandon Weetabix doesn't pose much of a threat in that category... Greg Little could pose some matchup problems, but he also drops a lot of balls... I'm not sure about the status of Joshua Cribbs after taking a vicious hit in the Baltimore game last Thursday Night...
Cleveland's defense isn't all that bad, & they may benefit from the return of Joe Haden from suspension... All in all, I'd expect a rather ugly game... Either the Browns can keep it close using a little ground & pound with Trent Richardson, or even if they get behind, they could backdoor cover if the Giants start thinking about plane reservations for San Francisco next week after halftime... A 'non-conference' matchup isn't as important [to the Giants] as getting a first win [Cleveland], when it blew opportunities against some pretty good opponents [Baltimore & Philly] in past weeks...
This is going to be a trending dynamic that I look for all year [non-conference games]... In the quest to make the playoffs, there appear to be many divisions 'up for grabs' [namely ~ the NFC East, NFC Central, NFC West, AFC North, AFC West]... I'd expect more energy diverted into teams winning games within their division, which makes 'out of conference' games very scary & having the potential for upsets to teams who either aren't focused, or who are playing in sandwich games...
BROWNS for (4 units)...
*unit pick change (more units on Browns)
Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings by 5.5
TITANS for (2 units)...
So Ryan Tannehill went into Arizona last week & put up monster numbers against one of the better defenses in the NFL... Incidentally ~ it was Cam Newton who did about the same last year in week 1... I'm not sure how much you can read into that... The Dolphins thrive more on defense (with Cameron Wake in 'beast' mode)...
One could argue that Kevin Kolb actually managed the situation rather well... He threw a red zone pick (which could have iced the game for Arizona), but that pick was almost beyond possibility... Miami came back with a 80 yard strike on the next play to Brian Hartline while the Cardinals were still trying to figure out what was going on...
Andy Dalton is proving to be an intelligent & more than competent NFL QB so it will be interesting to see how he handles a Dolphins pass rush that simply like to tee off on the QB...
The Fins are probably better than people give them credit for (while Cincy is probably not as good as their record)... Still ~ Cincy seems to only manage to lose to teams with 'winning' records, so a steady dose of playing Jacksonville & Cleveland has them looking pretty good... I really wouldn't suggest putting any units on this game either way... My 'lean' [for die hards] would be...
DOLPHINS for (0 units)...
The achilles heel of the Ravens last year was to 'sleepwalk' through games like this... Losing 4 times all year... All ROAD games... To mediocre opponents [Tennessee, San Diego, Jacksonville, Seattle]...
One dynamic (within the dynamic) to that reality was the fact that Baltimore has historically had a 'let down' game after facing division rival Pittsburgh... In fact, TWO of those aforementioned losses were after wins against the Steelers [Tennessee & Seattle ~ where, after Green Bay has figured out the other week, is a tough place to play in any week]... To make matters worse, BOTH the Tennessee & Seattle games were punctuated by numerous mistakes [turnovers], that happened both on offense & special teams... Both, in the end, were games that Baltimore could have still managed to win and almost overcame shooting themselves in the foot... The Jacksonville loss was another bizarre game that (which was a Monday Night game, the first in YEARS, in Jacksonville, a GIFT to help fill the stands)... It featured horrendous play calling, and bizzare clock management by Baltimore, who should have probably won anyway)... The only truly horrible game they played on the road was a late season away game at San Diego...
I say this because 3 out of 4 of those strange losses were against AFC teams... By virtue, they ended up losing out to home field advantage throughout the playoffs by on game to the New England Patriots (which means that they had to travel to Foxboro to lose a game by a dropped TD pass & missed FG [see Billy Cundiff above])... Similar situations have occurred wth the Ravens in past years losing AFC Championship games in away games to the Steelers...
What I'm trying to say is that, you would think, that the Ravens know that "home field advantage" is very important (as they haven't lost in M&T Bank stadium in almost 3 years, & even then, only one game, in overtime, to the Steelers, where they had the lead late into the 4th quarter)... This year, the Ravens have already established a one game up advantage to the Patriots (in addition to a "head to head" tiebreaker, by virtue of a win in Week 3)... They play Houston (on the road) in a few weeks in a game that may very well determine #1 seed in the AFC...
I don't think the Ravens are going to sleepwalk here... But that doesn't mean I think they'll blowout the Chiefs (who are probably better than their record and who, for my money, still have a chance to come back & compete for the AFC West title)... Chiefs coach Romeo Crenell knows a little about the Ravens (having coached for the Cleveland Browns)... But this Ravens unit is a little different (not relying solely on defense ~ but on a no huddle offense scheme & a complimentary 'bend not break' defense that can still dial it up & make a play when the situation calls for it)... That 'no-huddle' offensive twist has only been tested on the road once this year (regretfully, resulting in a few mistakes & a 1 point loss to the Eagles in week 2, where the Ravens took a 10 point lead into the 2nd half)...
Unlike most bettors, I don't expect a Ravens 'cakewalk' here, but I'd expect them to tak care of business... This could end up to be a play to toss into an EXOTIC ('teaser') scenario... & when I say that ~ I mean BOTH ways (as the final score might end up being close to the line)...
CHIEFS for (0 units)...
The Panthers may have their season on the line here (as they are probably not talented enough to drop to (1-4) and still have hopes of making the playoffs)... They have to overcome, emotionally, a tough loss to the Falcons last week... Seattle is still probably too young to understand how to win on the road (as evidenced by last weeks loss to the Rams)...
The problems that Seattle can cause defensively probably does not hurt a QB like Cam Newton as it did for the likes of Sam Bradford or Aaron Rodgers... On the other side of the ball, I think that the limitations that Russell Wilson presents [size wise] as an NFL QB are starting to show up... The Seahawks just don't have WR's that can get separation off the ball & this may turn into a long day for RW as he returns to the state of North Carolina... The Seahawks also may be looking past this game as they have consecutive games vs. the Patriots & 49ers & [here], are in the East Coast time zone...
PANTHERS for (0 units)...
*unit pick change (have changed this to a zero unit game)
Teams coming off Monday Night blowout wins generally fare well the next week... Add to that that the Bears are not likely to be looking ahead as they have a BYE the following week... The Jags are on a BYE week as well following this game, but who the hell knows what they think (besides who might be available to replace Blaine Gabbert some day soon)?...
Remember, the Bears started out strong last year as well (before fading)...
BEARS for (1 unit)...
*unit change (based on line movement)
A lot of this line is probably based on the fact that the Patriots annihilated the Broncos [twice] last year... What has changed?... Umm ~ Tim Tebow was the QB in Denver (while now they have this guy named Peyton Manning)... I'm trying to remember the last time that you were 'getting' Peyton Manning and almost a touchdown in any NFL game...
BRONCOS for (1 unit)...
*unit pick change (less units on Broncos)
The Bills have to be totally spent after putting everything in to the Patriots game & getting schellacked... Now they have to come all the way out west & play one of the top defenses in the NFL...
The only thing I can say in the Bills favor is that the 49ers may be peeking forward a little to some important divisional matchups in upcoming weeks... I wouldn't be laying any units on this game either way...
49ERS for (0 units)...
*pick change (now siding with 49ers)
Picks & game comments before Sunday kickoff... Leaning towards...
SAINTS for (3 units)...
*this could change based on line movements (I don't like that the public is now getting all on board the Saints ~ which is normally not the case with 0-4 teams)
Houston Texans at New York Jets
JETS for (0 units)...
*I'll probably end up siding with the JETS here ~ & I will probably add multiple units to this pick
EDIT [10/8]... I dunno peeps... Here's all I have to say... This line has been moved (2) points after...
- The books won with [Rams, Eagles, Colts, Dolphins, Chiefs, & oddly 'Patriots']
- They lost with [Falcons, Giants, Vikings, Bears, 49ers, & Saints]
In summary, that means the 'books' are beating the public as we go into this game (which is why the generous line movement towards the Jets [with Scott Green as the ref])...
I was 6-7 on picks (but got killed on unit picks)... Ordinarily ~ I'd want to go LARGE on the Jets in a spot like this, but I'll stick with a more conservative play (using 6 units worth of BONUS on 'exotics' by playing the JETS [+15.5] in two teasers & call it a day)...
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+11) + NEW YORK JETS (+15.5) ~ 3 units
BALTIMORE RAVENS (+1) + NEW YORK JETS (+15.5) ~ 3 units
(this is a 'hedge' pick)... Basically ~ I'm playing BOTH sides of a 2 team teaser as an opener... But it is entirely predicated on what pointspread you lock in... If the Ravens end up as 5 point favorites, you get the RAVENS (+1), but you have to match that bet with taking KANSAS CITY (+11) or it's a 'no-go'...
In this scenario, you cover BOTH first ends if the final score ends up to be between Ravens (+1) & Kansas City (+11)... If the final score ends up outside those parameters, you hedge an OPEN pick to be determined & only lose the vig...
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+9) + CLEVELAND BROWNS (+15.5) ~ 1 unit
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-1) + NEW YORK JETS (+13.5) ~ 2 units
TENNESSEE TITANS (+11.5) + CLEVELAND BROWNS (15.5) ~ 1 unit
Line: Vikings by 5.5
I think you can 'write-off' the blowout loss the Titans suffered to the Texans last week... Jake Locker went down early in the game with a separated shoulder & Matt Hasslebeck is just too old & crusty to come into a game without preparation... With a week of preparation (& with, possibly, getting another weapon, Kenny Britt, active), Hasslebeck may have better luck against a defense that, despite playing well this year, isn't on the same level as the Texans...
Christian Ponder was rather 'vanilla' last week, but that's all that he needed to be... Adrian Peterson is looking a little healthier each week...
I'm kind of mixed about this game... The Vikings have been solid thus far this season (but I'm still not on their bandwagon)... LAYING 5 and a half points is a huge dynamic change for them (after being underdogs in two previous wins)... I'm also not convinced that the Titans are as bad as they look on paper... They've only had to play the Patriots, Lions, & Texans thus far this year (plus the Chargers who happen to be 3-1 & leading the AFC West)... I'm not a big CJ2K fan, but maybe the opportunity to go up against Adrian Peterson will light a fire...
Christian Ponder was rather 'vanilla' last week, but that's all that he needed to be... Adrian Peterson is looking a little healthier each week...
I'm kind of mixed about this game... The Vikings have been solid thus far this season (but I'm still not on their bandwagon)... LAYING 5 and a half points is a huge dynamic change for them (after being underdogs in two previous wins)... I'm also not convinced that the Titans are as bad as they look on paper... They've only had to play the Patriots, Lions, & Texans thus far this year (plus the Chargers who happen to be 3-1 & leading the AFC West)... I'm not a big CJ2K fan, but maybe the opportunity to go up against Adrian Peterson will light a fire...
TITANS for (2 units)...
Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals by 4
So Ryan Tannehill went into Arizona last week & put up monster numbers against one of the better defenses in the NFL... Incidentally ~ it was Cam Newton who did about the same last year in week 1... I'm not sure how much you can read into that... The Dolphins thrive more on defense (with Cameron Wake in 'beast' mode)...
One could argue that Kevin Kolb actually managed the situation rather well... He threw a red zone pick (which could have iced the game for Arizona), but that pick was almost beyond possibility... Miami came back with a 80 yard strike on the next play to Brian Hartline while the Cardinals were still trying to figure out what was going on...
Andy Dalton is proving to be an intelligent & more than competent NFL QB so it will be interesting to see how he handles a Dolphins pass rush that simply like to tee off on the QB...
The Fins are probably better than people give them credit for (while Cincy is probably not as good as their record)... Still ~ Cincy seems to only manage to lose to teams with 'winning' records, so a steady dose of playing Jacksonville & Cleveland has them looking pretty good... I really wouldn't suggest putting any units on this game either way... My 'lean' [for die hards] would be...
DOLPHINS for (0 units)...
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Ravens by 5
The achilles heel of the Ravens last year was to 'sleepwalk' through games like this... Losing 4 times all year... All ROAD games... To mediocre opponents [Tennessee, San Diego, Jacksonville, Seattle]...
One dynamic (within the dynamic) to that reality was the fact that Baltimore has historically had a 'let down' game after facing division rival Pittsburgh... In fact, TWO of those aforementioned losses were after wins against the Steelers [Tennessee & Seattle ~ where, after Green Bay has figured out the other week, is a tough place to play in any week]... To make matters worse, BOTH the Tennessee & Seattle games were punctuated by numerous mistakes [turnovers], that happened both on offense & special teams... Both, in the end, were games that Baltimore could have still managed to win and almost overcame shooting themselves in the foot... The Jacksonville loss was another bizarre game that (which was a Monday Night game, the first in YEARS, in Jacksonville, a GIFT to help fill the stands)... It featured horrendous play calling, and bizzare clock management by Baltimore, who should have probably won anyway)... The only truly horrible game they played on the road was a late season away game at San Diego...
I say this because 3 out of 4 of those strange losses were against AFC teams... By virtue, they ended up losing out to home field advantage throughout the playoffs by on game to the New England Patriots (which means that they had to travel to Foxboro to lose a game by a dropped TD pass & missed FG [see Billy Cundiff above])... Similar situations have occurred wth the Ravens in past years losing AFC Championship games in away games to the Steelers...
What I'm trying to say is that, you would think, that the Ravens know that "home field advantage" is very important (as they haven't lost in M&T Bank stadium in almost 3 years, & even then, only one game, in overtime, to the Steelers, where they had the lead late into the 4th quarter)... This year, the Ravens have already established a one game up advantage to the Patriots (in addition to a "head to head" tiebreaker, by virtue of a win in Week 3)... They play Houston (on the road) in a few weeks in a game that may very well determine #1 seed in the AFC...
I don't think the Ravens are going to sleepwalk here... But that doesn't mean I think they'll blowout the Chiefs (who are probably better than their record and who, for my money, still have a chance to come back & compete for the AFC West title)... Chiefs coach Romeo Crenell knows a little about the Ravens (having coached for the Cleveland Browns)... But this Ravens unit is a little different (not relying solely on defense ~ but on a no huddle offense scheme & a complimentary 'bend not break' defense that can still dial it up & make a play when the situation calls for it)... That 'no-huddle' offensive twist has only been tested on the road once this year (regretfully, resulting in a few mistakes & a 1 point loss to the Eagles in week 2, where the Ravens took a 10 point lead into the 2nd half)...
Unlike most bettors, I don't expect a Ravens 'cakewalk' here, but I'd expect them to tak care of business... This could end up to be a play to toss into an EXOTIC ('teaser') scenario... & when I say that ~ I mean BOTH ways (as the final score might end up being close to the line)...
CHIEFS for (0 units)...
LATE GAMES
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers by 3
The Panthers may have their season on the line here (as they are probably not talented enough to drop to (1-4) and still have hopes of making the playoffs)... They have to overcome, emotionally, a tough loss to the Falcons last week... Seattle is still probably too young to understand how to win on the road (as evidenced by last weeks loss to the Rams)...
The problems that Seattle can cause defensively probably does not hurt a QB like Cam Newton as it did for the likes of Sam Bradford or Aaron Rodgers... On the other side of the ball, I think that the limitations that Russell Wilson presents [size wise] as an NFL QB are starting to show up... The Seahawks just don't have WR's that can get separation off the ball & this may turn into a long day for RW as he returns to the state of North Carolina... The Seahawks also may be looking past this game as they have consecutive games vs. the Patriots & 49ers & [here], are in the East Coast time zone...
PANTHERS for (0 units)...
*unit pick change (have changed this to a zero unit game)
Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Bears by 5
Teams coming off Monday Night blowout wins generally fare well the next week... Add to that that the Bears are not likely to be looking ahead as they have a BYE the following week... The Jags are on a BYE week as well following this game, but who the hell knows what they think (besides who might be available to replace Blaine Gabbert some day soon)?...
Remember, the Bears started out strong last year as well (before fading)...
BEARS for (1 unit)...
*unit change (based on line movement)
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
Line: Patriots by 6.5
A lot of this line is probably based on the fact that the Patriots annihilated the Broncos [twice] last year... What has changed?... Umm ~ Tim Tebow was the QB in Denver (while now they have this guy named Peyton Manning)... I'm trying to remember the last time that you were 'getting' Peyton Manning and almost a touchdown in any NFL game...
BRONCOS for (1 unit)...
*unit pick change (less units on Broncos)
Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers by 9.5
The Bills have to be totally spent after putting everything in to the Patriots game & getting schellacked... Now they have to come all the way out west & play one of the top defenses in the NFL...
The only thing I can say in the Bills favor is that the 49ers may be peeking forward a little to some important divisional matchups in upcoming weeks... I wouldn't be laying any units on this game either way...
49ERS for (0 units)...
*pick change (now siding with 49ers)
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints by 3.5
Picks & game comments before Sunday kickoff... Leaning towards...
SAINTS for (3 units)...
*this could change based on line movements (I don't like that the public is now getting all on board the Saints ~ which is normally not the case with 0-4 teams)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Houston Texans at New York Jets
Line: Texans by 7.5 (now 9.5)
All Houston has to do is win by a touchdown... Easy money right?
JETS for (0 units)...
*I'll probably end up siding with the JETS here ~ & I will probably add multiple units to this pick
EDIT [10/8]... I dunno peeps... Here's all I have to say... This line has been moved (2) points after...
- The books won with [Rams, Eagles, Colts, Dolphins, Chiefs, & oddly 'Patriots']
- They lost with [Falcons, Giants, Vikings, Bears, 49ers, & Saints]
In summary, that means the 'books' are beating the public as we go into this game (which is why the generous line movement towards the Jets [with Scott Green as the ref])...
I was 6-7 on picks (but got killed on unit picks)... Ordinarily ~ I'd want to go LARGE on the Jets in a spot like this, but I'll stick with a more conservative play (using 6 units worth of BONUS on 'exotics' by playing the JETS [+15.5] in two teasers & call it a day)...
~~~
EXOTIC PICK SCENARIOS
2 TEAM TEASER
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+11) + NEW YORK JETS (+15.5) ~ 3 units
BALTIMORE RAVENS (+1) + NEW YORK JETS (+15.5) ~ 3 units
(this is a 'hedge' pick)... Basically ~ I'm playing BOTH sides of a 2 team teaser as an opener... But it is entirely predicated on what pointspread you lock in... If the Ravens end up as 5 point favorites, you get the RAVENS (+1), but you have to match that bet with taking KANSAS CITY (+11) or it's a 'no-go'...
In this scenario, you cover BOTH first ends if the final score ends up to be between Ravens (+1) & Kansas City (+11)... If the final score ends up outside those parameters, you hedge an OPEN pick to be determined & only lose the vig...
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+9) + CLEVELAND BROWNS (+15.5) ~ 1 unit
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-1) + NEW YORK JETS (+13.5) ~ 2 units
TENNESSEE TITANS (+11.5) + CLEVELAND BROWNS (15.5) ~ 1 unit
