Thursday, October 11, 2012

I told you all that these Thursday Night NFL Games are a massacre for me to publish before gametime...

But here goes... Without graphics...

I'm taking the TITANS (-6) for 2 units...


EDIT [10/12]: I'll have week 6 NFL picks up tomorrow [Saturday]... For now ~ I'm going with the following NCAA action...

Maryland (+2.5) at Virginia ~ correct
New Mexico (-3) at Hawaii ~ correct
Memphis (+18) at East Carolina - incorrect
2012 NCAA Picks (after week 7): 10-2-0


EDIT [10/13]: I'm going to have to go 'graphic-less' on the picks this week (due to time constraints)... Doesn't matter does it?... I mean ~ Having graphics doesn't make the picks any better or worse...

2012 NFL Picks (YTD regular season picks aggregate): 39-34-2
2012 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'unit picks' aggregate differential): (-15)
2012 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'exotics' differential): (+2)
2012 NFL Picks (week 1): 6-9-0
2012 NFL Picks (week 2): 8-5-2
2012 NFL Picks (week 3): 7-9-0
2012 NFL Picks (week 4): 11-4-0
2012 NFL Picks (week 5): 7-7-0

*ALL picks ATS [against the spread]
*I'll start with SUNDAY GAMES here (Thursday was a 2 unit win with the TITANS)... Picks in BOLD CAPS...
CLEVELAND (+2.5) vs. Cincinnati ~ 0 units
INDIANAPOLIS (+3) at NY Jets ~ 0 units
KANSAS CITY (+4) at Tampa Bay ~ 0 units
OAKLAND (+9.5) at Atlanta ~ 0 units
BALTIMORE (-3) vs. Dallas ~ 0 units
PHILADELPHIA (-3) vs. Detroit ~ 0 units
ST. LOUIS (+5) at Miami ~ 0 units
SEATTLE (+3) vs. New England ~ 0 units
BUFFALO (+4) at Arizona ~ 3 units
WASHINGTON (+2.5) vs. Minnesota ~ 0 units
SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5) vs. NY Giants ~ 0 units
GREEN BAY (+3) at Houston ~ 1 unit
SAN DIEGO (pk) vs. Denver ~ 0 units
*as you can see ~ I don't like much action this week (which is partially why the absent graphics)... I had an OK week last week with EXOTICS, so maybe I'll toss out a few here...
The Atlanta/Oakland line of 9.5 has 94% of the 'exotic' players taking the Falcons -3.5... I think that's trap city (especially since the Oak/Atl game is the most heavily wagered game on the board)... I'd beinclined to go the other way (taking Oakland +15.5)... Either that or steer clear of that game...
Baltimore isn't really blowing teams out (except for week 1 vs. Cincy)... But they have not lost a game at M&T Bank stadium in 2 and a half years... Dallas is going to be trying hard (after a bye week) & only 37% of the exotic wagering is on Dallas... They are worth consideration...
Only 23% of exotics are on the Seahawks (playing at home)... You could get them & 9 points (if you have faith in Russell Wilson)...
The Bills have been blown out in consecutive weeks & are playing Arizona (at the toaster)... Arizona seems to always play nail biters at the toaster, so getting Buffalo (+10) [it's rare to see NFL teams get blown out 3 weeks in a row], is pretty good when only 38% of the exotic money is siding with the Bills...
Everybody seems to know... KNOW, that there's no way Houston can blow out the Packers (especially with the Packers in kind of a 'must win' situation)... So more than 60% of the exotic money is on Green Bay... I don'tlike betting against the house... Same is sort of true with the NY Giants... 57% of the public like the idea of getting the Giants (+12.5)... Sure thing right? (because the NFC Championship game last year went into overtime)...
The Denver/SD line has moved to (pick em)... But 69% of the exotic money is on Peyton Manning... They think that he can cruise in there & beat the Chargers (who played the Saints, in the Superdome, & Drew Brees who was all amped up to break the long standing Johnny Unitas record)... Whatever...
Tampa Bay is favored over Kansas City (who has one of the better rushing attacks in the NFL) because Matt Cassel is out & Brady Quinn is starting?... I know we're talking Brady Quinn here, but since when was Quinn really a 'downgrade' from overrated Matt Cassel?... Tampa Bay shouldn't be favored over ANYBODY until they prove they can win games over teams not named the CAROLINA PANTHERS suffering through a Cam Newton sophomore slump... 63% of the people think otherwise...
parlay with (iow ~ if 1:00PM teaser hits ~ double down on units for late teaser)
BUFFALO BILLS (+10)/SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (+6) ~ [one unit if first teaser misses, two units if first teaser hits]