Fantasy Sports Nation: Week 4 NFL Picks ~ 2012

2012 NFL Picks (YTD regular season picks aggregate): 21-23-2
2012 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'unit picks' aggregate differential): (-9)

2012 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'exotics' differential): (-2)

2012 NFL Picks (week 1): 6-9-0
2012 NFL Picks (week 2): 8-5-2
2012 NFL Picks (week 3): 7-9-0

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2012 NCAA Picks season aggregate: 6-0-0
2012 NCAA 'unit picks' aggregate: (+6)

NCAA Picks (week 5)

Louisiana Monroe (-17.5) at Tulane ~ correct
Western Kentucky (-2.5) at Arkansas State ~ correct
Marshall (+16) at Purdue ~ correct

*all picks 'ATS' (against the spread)

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PREVIEW: In a thoroughly strange week, I went 7-9 last week but managed to come out (+1) on unit picks thanks to a (+4) unit play on the Arizona Cardinals...

A lot of handicapprs are wringing their hands right now because of the state of the NFL with regards to the replacement refs... The outcome of many games (both outcome wise & handicapping wise) is completely random based on the yellow flags of these buffoons (not to mention (+10 min gametime)... Nowhere was it more evident than in the New England ~ Baltimore game on Sunday Night... Al Michaels & Chris Collinsworth were beside themselves (no to mention John Harbaugh & Bill Belichick)...

Get a grip NFL! (Evereybod knows I'm a longtime critic of Roger Goodell)... In any case ~ you'll continue to see low unit picks from me until this situation is remedied (& I frankly don't recommend any action on ANY games)...

Luckily this is all for fun, right?... RIGHT???

Edit (9/27/12): Ha! You could guess that I wrote the original intro to this week after Sunday Night & before the Monday Night debacle... In any case ~ I rest my case & I'm, of course, relieved that the real refs are back on the job...

Thursday was typical for a Thursday Night game (where the 'meme' is that either the overwhelming underdog plays with desperation, or that the visiting team struggles)... BOTH were evident in a 'ho-hum' win for Baltimore...

Now that the real refs are back ~ I'll be adjusting the picks & units which were originally posted for this week...

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WEEK 4 NFL PICKS

THURSDAY GAMES

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

Line: Ravens by 12

This is a horrible spot for the Ravens (despite being home on a short week)... Luckily, they're playing the crappy Browns...

BROWNS for (0 units)...
*no change

SUNDAY EARLY GAMES

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Line: Patriots by 4

Teams playing in their 2nd straight road game have a very decent ATS record... Couple that with the "FU" factor that Brady & the Pats must be feeling right now & it's hard to imagine that Pats not finding a way to scrap away with a victory here (especially since they've won the last 17 of 18 vs. Buffalo)... Frankly though, I think that dynamic is priced in the line so it won't be a high unit play...

PATRIOTS for (0 units)...
*unit change ~ Logan Mankins is out + Line movement to (-4)...

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

Line: Lions by 4.5

Still uncertainty about whether or not Matthew Stafford will start... Shaun Hill is a competent backup, but Mikel LeShoure is also ailing... The Lions, despite covering the last 3 vs. the Vikings, have yet to prove their awesomeness this year... What I especially dislike is their [Lions] tendency to start slow in the first half of games...

VIKINGS for (0 units)...
*pick change

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

Line: Falcons by 6.5

Many are putting Atlanta in the TOP 2 of NFL teams thus far (hard to argue with the underwhelmingness elsewhere)... Still ~ A touchdown is a lot to cover in a division rivalry...

PANTHERS for (0 units)...
*no change

San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets

Line: 49ers by 4

WTF happened to the 49ers last week?... Actually ~ I've been saying for a couple of weeks now that the 49ers 'honeymoon' is over... They still have an awesome defense (which 'travels' well), but they're not sneaking up on anybody...

Jets without Revis Island?... I guess we'll see, but this is a week that the wheat & chaffe start getting separated in the NFL... I can't see the Jets as winners here, so it's a matter of 'backdoor covering'... Save for Tim Tebow, the Jets don't havethose types of weapons...

49ERS for (2 units)...
*no change

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

Line: Chargers by 2

I really liked the Chiefs earlier in the week, but they'll be without their starting center, which changes the dynamic... I'm surprised by the Chargers quick start...

CHIEFS for (0 units)...
*unit change

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Line: Texans by 13

I've been saying for 3 weeks now that the TEXANS have started out with the most 'cupcake' of schedules in NFL history... No doubt that they're ranked #1 (by most 'geniuses')...

12 points?... I haven't gotten a full read on the Titans yet (& they may be without Jared Cook & Kenny Britt here, but I think Jake Locker is starting to show some shine)... I can't see the overrated Texans covering a 12 point spread in a divisional matchup)...

TITANS for (0 units)...
*no change

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams

Line: Seahawks by 2.5

I'm going to go out & say that the Seahawks have a TOP 5 defense in the NFL right now...

What's tough is that they play like monsters at home, but still travel poorly... Still ~ If the Seahawks don't suffer a letdown from the intensity of last Monday Night, & can put the same kind of pressure on the crappy Rams line & Sam Bradford, the Rams don't stand a chance here...

SEAHAWKS for (2 units)...
*pick change

LATE GAMES