2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season aggregate [weeks 1-11]): 87-65-4
2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'unit picks' aggregate differential): (+36)
*all picks 'ATS' (against the spread)
2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'unit picks' aggregate differential): (+36)
2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'exotics' differential): (+1.5)
2011 NFL Picks (week 12): 1-2-0
2011 NFL (week 12 'unit picks' differential): (+6)*all picks 'ATS' (against the spread)
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PREVIEW: Happy Thanksgiving!... Let's see if we can get back on track...
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WEEK 12 NFL PICKS
WEEK 12 NFL PICKS
THANKSGIVING DAY GAMES
Line: Packers by 6.5
I think setting a line of 6.5 (under the psychological 7 tells you everything you need to know)...
What I'm reminded of here is last year when the Packers went into Ford Field on a mini-roll, only to come out of the game with a 7-3 loss and an Aaron Rodgers concussion... Of course, it wasn't a Thanksgiving game, but that's neither here nor there...
The Lions have a spotty record on Thanksgiving, but it's really not for not trying (or bad luck) - or sometimes poor scheduling... A couple of years ago they played the undefeated Tennessee Titans, then last year they had to play the New England Patriots and held in there pretty well until the Patriots opened it up in the 2nd half... The Patriots were playing on all cylinders, and it was just before the Lions started winning games (a streak that lasted 4 games at the end of last season and thru 5 games this year)...
The public kind of gave up on the Lions after the loss to the 49ers (which doesn't look too bad now, does it)?... They're the only team that's managed to beat Tim Tebow, and. of course, they've beat Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Cam Newton in the same stretch... They lost "shootouts" to Michael Vick & Tom Brady & kept Eli Manning somewhat in check (last year)...
What I'm saying is that the Lions seem to get UP for gunslinging QB's... Remember, that HALF the above mentioned games were either with Drew Stanton, or Shaun Hill as QB... The knock on the Lions is that they tend to start slow, but they're seldom really out of it...
Kevin Smith is now back & had a monster game last week vs. Carolina... I know... It's CAROLINA, but still... Smith adds the dimension that the Lions seemed to lose when they lost Jahvid Best... Other factors include the fact that Matthew Stafford has managed to get more of his weapons involved in the offense... Titus Young & Nate Burleson have been equalling or exceeding the fantasy numbers of Megatron in past weeks...
I'm taking a big chance in saying this, but it seems to me that the Lions are gettin themselves over their mid-season funk, while Green Bay just didn't look interested last week in barely managing to send home the craptastic Tampa Bay Bucs (that TD run by LaGarrette Blount pretty much told me how interested the Packers were, & even Aaron Rodgers threw a rare interception)...
I'm going to go with a feeling and say the Lions can either cover this spread, or possibly even hand the Packers their first loss of the year... Green Bay seems to need a wake up call...
LIONS for (3 units)...
Packers 27 - Lions 15 - incorrect
Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys (4:15 EDT - CBS)
Line: Cowboys by 7
Miami has been on a 3 game "winning streak" roll (& a 5 game 'covering streak' roll)... I've been with them most of the way (having had them to outright win their 1st game of the year vs. Kansas City & laying points with them, vs. the Bills last week)...
The Cowboys are on a roll of their own (having won 3 straight since a debacle against Philly)...
That makes this game somewhat hard to handicap (as it is often easier to handicap games where either or both teams seem to be in transition)... I'll do my best...
I think the underlying theme here is that the Cowboys, by default, are the more "interested" team here... Not saying that the Dolphins aren't motivated, but let's face it... The Dolphins aren't going anywhere in either the AFC playoff race, OR their division (they are still last)... They probably had their little run, and the best they'll probably do now is play situational spoiler... They're running into a tough spot to play the role of spoiler...
Dallas is "out of conference", & furthermore Dallas seems to get up for these Thanksgiving Day games... Miami is the team who has to go on the road on 3 days rest after a big win vs. a division rival...
You could say the same about Dallas (overtime win vs. the Redskins), but out of the two, the 'scare' in Washington may have woken Dallas up enough to not take any games too lightly... They'll have a 10 day rest after this game where they play Arizona, so I'm sure they're not looking ahead just yet... Probably their biggest game of the year will be vs. the NY Giants (in a game that may decide the NFC East playoff spot)... The Giants themselves have a 3 game stretch vs. the Saints, Packers, & Dallas (so I think the Cowboys know what's at stake in the next 17 days)...
I'm going to write off the struggles the Cowboys had vs. the Redskins... That's an old old rivalry that seems always to be end up close... I don't know how, but every time I seemed to look, Jabar Gaffney was hauling in a pass in that game... I don't know, but I gotta think Rob Ryan will just have to dial up something on defense that will make the clock strike midnight on Matt Moore (who has been stellar the past 3 weeks - yet vs. teams that were not firing on all cylinders)...
Thanksgiving Day... I'll go ahead & lay the points...
COWBOYS for (1 unit)...
Cowboys 20 - Dolphins 19 - incorrect
Line: Ravens by 3
OK, here we go... Hargaugh vs. Harbaugh... I probably don't have to write too many words here because the match-up ought to be clear... In many ways these teams are so similar... Great defenses, efficient offenses (except on odd occasions when Cam Cameron forgets to give Ray Rice the football)...
I really don't think the public has seen the TRUE Ravens yet... They've lost 3 games this year to crappy squads (Tennessee, Jax, & Seattle)... Two of those losses came the week after they played the Steelers... Most of the reasons for those losses were sleepwalking on offense & costly turnovers (3 vs. Seattle in the RED ZONE, 2 on kickoff returns)... I don't care who you're playing, you just can't hand the other team 17 free points & expect to win in the NFL... Basically the same things happened vs. Tennessee & Jacksonville...
San Francisco is undefeated (save for the overtime loss vs. the Cowboys)... Since that's in the back of many people's minds (& with only one loss), the 49ers are being discussed along side the Packers as the best two teams in the NFL right now... What makes me grin is that the same 'experts' can't even see fit to put the Ravens in the top "3" of just the AFC!!!... Most recent I saw was Nick Mangini (ESPN) ranking the Ravens behind the Patriots & Steelers (even though the Ravens beat the Steelers twice already this year, as well as beat the Houston Texans by 15, and annihilated the Jets (whom many consider somewhat neck & neck with the Patriots)...
Whatever...
I understand the 'emotion' of siding with the Steelers or Patriots (but the 'logic' still escapes me)...
Actually, the most dangerous thing for the Ravens would be to put the whammy on San Francisco here on Thanksgiving Night... At that point, it's likely that the Ravens could follow up that victory with losses to the Browns & Colts...
Impressive as the 49ers have been this year... I just don't think that they ought to be compared with (let alone 'elevated above' the status of the Ravens) until they've proven more... A LOT MORE...
A lot of folks have come & gone into M&T Bank Stadium with their shiny little records only to go home with a few more players on the PUP list, another "L" on their resume, and their tails between their legs...
Think it's so easy?...
Nobody... NOBODY... In the Joe Flacco era... west of the Indianapolis Colts (& that was a 'Peyton Manning' led Indianapolis Colts that - um - went on to play [& were 'favored' over] the New Orleans Saints in the Superbowl... THOSE Colts barely managed to beat the Ravens (17-15)...
The only OTHER teams to beat Baltimore at M&T were the Steelers, TWICE, (both times by a field goal - once, in OT, & both times where Baltimore held 4th quarter leads & BOTH times when the Steelers went on to play in the Superbowl that same year)... Also, the division rival Bengals beat them once (17-14) on a TD pass from Carson Palmer to Andre Caldwell with 22 seconds to play...
That's it... That's the BEST 3 Superbowl bound teams were able to manage in Baltimore (an 'overtime' win, a FG win, & a 2 point win)...
Most will forget also (BEFORE the Joe Flacco era - when Baltimore had to exist with Kyle FUCKING Boller as QB), that the undefeated New England Patriots (yeah, THOSE 18-1 New England Patriots), barely escaped with their lives in Baltimore late in the season on a winning drive that had the benefit of shady penalty after shady penalty...
Oh, but I'm sure ALL of that past history is just a fluke... I'm SURE the 49ers, who haven't managed a season better than 8-8 in a DECADE, are going to waltz into Baltimore & show the Ravens who is boss... I'll have to look, but it seems to me that the Ravens have more ROAD PLAYOFF WINS during that same span...
Alright look... I don't want to say that the 49ers are bad... They've had a nice season & they're coached well... I'm going to have to go with older brother JOHN here though... It may not be apparent to the fucking HACK TV sportscasters out there, but this is a huge jump in class for the 49ers...
It's one thing to beat up on the Rams, Seahawks, & Cardinals (in your division) twice a year, then have the Cleveland Browns & Tampa Bay Bucs come to town & beat up on them... But it's a whole damn other thing to travel all the way East & play in a prime time game against a team that the PITTSBURGH STEELERS (who as I mentioned before are the team that all these 'expert' sportscasters have as being BETTER than the Ravens)... The STEELERS THEMSELVES know that they have to bring their A+1 game into Baltimore if they hope to win (Didn't work in week 1 when they were smoked 35-7)... Then #2 are the Patriots (according to the same 'experts')... Umm - the Patriots got smoked by the Steelers...
Anyway, if the Steelers are usually 3 point DOGS to the Ravens at M&T... You mean to tell me that the 49ers ought to be 3 point dogs too???... The Steelers have played in 3 Super Bowls (& won 2) since the 49ers even sniffed the playoffs...
Come on Man!
RAVENS for (10 units)...
2011 NFL - PICK OF THE YEAR
Ravens 16 - 49ers 6 - correct
SUNDAY EARLY GAMES
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (1:00 EDT)
Line: Texans by 6
The line has moved from 3.5 to 6...
JAGUARS here for (x units)...
Line: Jets by 8
Picks & game comments to be posted before Sunday kickoff... Leaning towards a LOW UNIT play on:
JETS here for (x unit)...
Line: Bengals by 7.5
Picks & game comments to be posted before Sunday kickoff... Leaning towards a LOW UNIT play on:
BROWNS for (0 units)...
Line: Falcons by 9.5
Picks & game comments to be posted before Sunday kickoff... Leaning towards a LOW UNIT play on:
VIKINGS for (x units)...
Line: Rams by 3
Picks & game comments to be posted before Sunday kickoff... Leaning towards a MEDIUM UNIT play on:
RAMS for (x units)...
Line: Panthers by 3.5
Picks & game comments to be posted before Sunday kickoff... Leaning towards a LOW UNIT play on:
COLTS for (x units)...
Line: Titans by 3
Picks & game comments to be posted before Sunday kickoff... Leaning towards a LOW UNIT play on:
BUCS for (x units)...
LATE GAMES
Line: Raiders by 4.5
Picks & game comments to be posted before Sunday kickoff... Leaning towards a ZERO UNIT play on:
BEARS for (x units)...
Picks & game comments to be posted before Sunday kickoff... Leaning towards a ZERO UNIT play on:
BEARS for (x units)...
Line: Seahawks by 4
Picks & game comments to be posted before Sunday kickoff... Leaning towards a ZERO UNIT play on:
SEAHAWKS for (x units)...
Line: Patriots by 3.5
Picks & game comments to be posted before Sunday kickoff... Leaning towards a ZERO UNIT play on:
EAGLES for (x units)...
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (8:20 EDT - NBC)
Line: Steelers by 10
Picks & game comments to be posted before Sunday kickoff... Leaning towards a ZERO UNIT play on:
STEELERS for (x units)...
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Line: Saints by 7
Picks & game comments to be posted before Sunday kickoff... Leaning towards a MEDIUM UNIT play on:
SAINTS for (x units)...
