2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season aggregate [weeks 1-10]): 81-58-3
2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'unit picks' aggregate differential): (+46)
2011 NFL Picks (week 11 'exotics' differential - POM): (-1.5)
*all picks 'ATS' (against the spread)
2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'unit picks' aggregate differential): (+46)
2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'exotics' differential): (+3)
2011 NFL Picks (week 11): 6-7-1
2011 NFL (week 11 'unit picks' differential): (-10)2011 NFL Picks (week 11 'exotics' differential - POM): (-1.5)
*all picks 'ATS' (against the spread)
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PREVIEW: Another "pre-Thanksgiving" installment of Thursday Night Football... UPDATE (11/19): I'm going to be making a NOVEMBER PICK OF THE MONTH, to be published somewhere below in the game write ups... So be sure to check for it...
WEEK 11 NFL PICKS
BYE WEEK: Pittsburgh, Houston, New Orleans, Indianapolis
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Line: Jets by 6
I'm having a hard time trying to figure out how 'psychologically' the Jets are going to come down off the emotional preparation of playing a Sunday Night game against the arch-rival Jets, and then fly all the way across country to play in a Mile High City against a team that has a QB that you really can't gameplan for (just ask the Dolphins, Raiders, & Chiefs - but don't ask John Elway - he'll probably "give you" the gameplan)...
When you take away Revis Island, you take away what the Jets are best at... In a different way, it's much the same type of logic as to why the Colts are so bad this year... The Colts are built (with Mathis & Freeney) to play with the lead... Take that away, & the Colts are almost last in the league in getting to the quarterback... So if Tebow is only going to throw 8 passes all game anyway (which he did last week vs. Kansas City) what danger does having Revis & Cromartie pose?
Just asking (because I don't know)...
For all the credit Tebow gets as a threat to run, he also takes a lot of sacks... I mentioned this last week (vs. Chiefs - which is why I took the Broncos in that game for 3 units), but the Chiefs had only had 8 sacks all year coming in to that game... The thing about Tebow is, since he has a "bail first" mentality & trusts his legs, he's fairly good at not allowing strip sacks & the like which is what a lot of defenses (especially the Jets) feast on with pressure defenses against pocket passers...
The Jets have been losing the turnover battle in recent weeks (but it only really showed up in the loss to the Patriots)... I'm going to say that the win over the the Bills was not that impressive because the Bills have basically fallen apart... OTOH, the Broncos have had some impressive wins (beating the Raiders, Chiefs, & Dolphins on the road)... The Chiefs may be falling apart, but nobody can deny the division wins in either KC, or Oakland... The Dolphins may have started slow, but after the game vs. the Broncos (which they led by 14 with 3 minutes to play), the Dolphins played the Giants tight in the Meadowlands & have now put together back to back wins...
I realize that I'm just filling space with words here, but that's because I really don't know how to handicap this game... How can anybody 'intelligently' tell you they know how to handicap against Tebow... If they do say they have a formula, then FADE them immediately because they're blowing hot air up your a55...
If ANY gameplan exists with Tebow, it's this... He's a competitor... So when I go back to the logic that I presented up top...
- Jets hungover after playing Patriots
- Jets having to travel across country on short rest
- Jets having to play in Mile High City
- Broncos with rabid fan base (who adore Tebow)
- In primetime television
- vs. a competitor (& arguably 'winner' like Tebow - he's covered 3 of 4 games)
- GETTING points
BRONCOS for (2 units)...
Denver 17 - NY Jets 13 - correct
SUNDAY EARLY GAMES
--- NOVEMBER PICK OF THE MONTH ---
I'm going to make this week my PICK OF THE MONTH WEEK... Let me explain something... I got tired of singling out one specific game and making an extra large 'unit pick' bet on it... You're a big hero if you win, but it screws you up too bad if you lose... Remember, a "pick of the month" IS NOT a LOCK... Nothing is a bleepin' lock... Nothing!... All a "pick of the month" is, is a potentially higher probability scenario (which can be based on trends, mathematics, gut feel, or all of the aforementioned)...
I've been successful thus far with both my September & October picks of the month... In September, it was in week 1 (taking the Patriots over the Dolphins in a Monday Night game)... Time flies doesn't it?... In October, I got creative... I kept waiting around and couldn't find anything juicy... Finally I came up with the idea (when the Colts, Dolphins, & Rams were all winless) to do a 3 team individual high unit play on all three teams (6 units each team - which required 18 units of capital)... The hopes were that two of the three teams (which the public hated at the time), would come through... IT WORKED (& almost worked out to all 3 winning)... Anyway, it was a synthetic way to go positive 6 units...
So this month I'm going to try and apply the same sort of creativity... I'll try to explain the best I can on how it will work... First of all, you have to imagine that the standard amount of capital outlay for a pick of the months would be between 5-10 units... 5 units is the highest wager I put on any normal game any week and even that is only on occasion... To put it mathematically, there's roughly a 1 in 16 chance that I'll find a game worth putting 5 units on... Furthermore, what I don't like about doing a PICK OF THE MONTH is that it paints you in to a corner... I rarely want to use it up at the beginning of a month (because a better situation might come along)... But then if one never does, you've painted yourself into a corner of just having to sling something against the wall (that REALLY might have only been a 3 or 4 unit pick elsewhere)...
I think (hope) this week is setting up to be "my style" of a week with regards to handicapping... I'm generally the type who likes to FADE the public & there are enough publicly backed teams out there that I'll gladly fade...
What's important to note about that is that there are two publicly backed teams that I LIKE that are laying multiple points this week (Green Bay & the New England Patriots)... The stickler is, that I'd NEVER make a 2 touchdown favorite a PICK OF THE MONTH... I made New England a pick of the month in September because they were only giving 7 points...
So the PICK OF THE MONTH 'scenario' I want to introduce involves somewhat of a 'budgetary' process... It dawned on me that I could do this because a lot of the games that are involved are being played in different time slots... It works somewhat like a PARLAY, but it's not exactly that... There's a certain allocation involved... Try to follow along as best you can...
- Total "Pick of the Month" Budget Allocation = 8 units
1. Place 2 units on GREEN BAY (1:00 PM)
2. Place 2 units on CAROLINA (1:00 PM)
3. Place 1 unit on MIAMI (1:00 PM)
4. Roll over 50% of winnings & take CHARGERS (4:15 PM)
5. If all 3 (1PM) games fail, reach back & use the spare 3 units on CHARGERS (4:15 PM)
6. Roll over 50% of ALL winnings on PATRIOTS on MNF on "go signal"
7. "go signal" will be determined pending the final results of Sunday games, check back with this blog to see if "go signal" is given or not...
I'm even going to roll this PICK OF MONTH into next week...
8. If 49ers COVER (this week)... Roll 50% of all winnings above into RAVENS (Thanksgiving Night)
Check back to this blog to see how that series of plays turns out...
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If that's too much for your melon to process, then here are the regular single game write-ups... Good Luck!
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (1:00 EDT)
Line: Dolphins by 2
Sometimes you have to be a little 'egocentric' when making football picks... I've been having a pretty decent run the past few weeks (positive 10...7...7...6...3...& 11 units in the past 6 weeks)...
I honestly say that as a 'cautionary' tale more than anything else... Nobody can keep up a hot streak forever... The law of averages will eventually catch up... To put it into a different perspective though... I'm in a handicapping league with 100 other guys (that's right ONE HUNDRED)... We all put up a stake, and the winner(s) (paying out 8 places & various other things), take home the money... It's been going on for almost 20 years, but I 'm basically a rookie and was only invited in about 3 years ago... I haven't won yet, but I'm one of the more consistent players in the league... You could track my PERCENT winning totals week after week (and compare them to the same weeks & aggregates in previous years & they're remarkably the same)...
The league is particular... You don't pick all games (& there are no 'unit picks' or anything like that)... Instead, you simply pick 4 ATS winners each week (from the entire menu of NCAA & NFL games)... Some guys like to go with college games... I generally suck at those, so I avoid them unless I really have a feeling on something... There is one tricky part each week... Out of the 4 games, you MUST pick at least one 'upset special' each week (take a team, as a dog, & the points)... If they win SU, you notch the win plus a bonus... If they only 'cover' ATS but still lose, you notch the point but no bonus... Naturally, a lot of the people (there are men & women handicappers in this league), take games with short spreads as their upset specials... To give you more of a visualization of what I'm talking about, I'll paste a partial copy of what the past few weeks have looked like for me in that tournament...
Some interesting things jump out right away... First of all was the LINE on the Philly game last week... As it turns out, the line was 14, but there was some kind of glitch early in the week that produced an 8.5 spread (which I hopped on)... It's too complicated & problematic to change, so the organizers just let it fall as it may... The Philly - Arizona game was of little interest to me, but if you're getting 5 free line points, you gotta do what you gotta do... It turns out it was the only game I got wrong last week, as Arizona won SU (so the football gods always find a way to laugh at you if you try & cheat them)... Othe things that pop out are as follows...
- The US games are the upset specials (note all the "+" lines & short spreads)... In an unusual case, I took UCLA +5.5 over Cal & got lucky with a win there... The YELLOW boxes indicate you're credited with a bonus for your upset pick...
- Notice also how I've included the New York Jets 3 out of the past 4 weeks (twice as "upset specials"), then, on the flip side of an "upset special"... The Jets are not available as a pick in that league this week because it's a Thursday game (& these pick selections close Friday Night at midnight - so anything midweek, college or NFL is not available except for Thanksgiving week)... Anyway, the Jets-Broncos would probably not be making the final cut of 4 games for me this week even if it were available...
The point that I've been trying to make is that in that league (where I've been very consistent), I actually got off to a slow start this year, but here after 10 weeks (I looked it up), I've recovered & am just about where I usually am at this time of year... So despite having said "be careful - because I'm on a roll", also factor in that in aggregate, I'm pretty much where I usually am... I'll usually get to somewhere around 63-67% 'ats' in that league I illustrated... & so far (in total ATS picks this year - as printed above), I'm 80-58-3 which runs in the same percentile...
In any case, that's just math... Handicappers like to brag and boast about this & that, but really it's virtually impossible to even SNIFF 70% or above for longer periods of time... Keep that in mind...
I say that all partly because I feel I've been having a good read on both the Bills & Dolphins lately... On this blog (since I make a pick for every game - units or not), I've made several multi-unit plays on BOTH the Bills & Dolphins... As you can see from the illustration above, both teams have made appearances on my FINAL PLAYS for the league I talked about (I faded the Bills 3x & took the Dolphins once)... I was correct on 3 of those (losing when the Redskins stunk it up vs. the Bills in Toronto)... In that game, I was trying to make a play on the Redskins getting something going, but that blew up royally... I tried to take the Redskins last week (vs. the Dolphins), thinking I was getting 'value' on the Dolphins having destroyed the Chiefs the week before, but I think the lesson to be learned here ISN'T with regards to my feel for the Dolphins or Bills, but more like my seemingly morbid like obsession with making losing bets on the Redskins...
So do I still have the mojo with the Bills & Dolphins? I dunno... A funny thing happens when you get on a STREAK (it happens with golfers all the time)... You start becoming aware of yourself (which means you start to OVERTHINK things)... I've wasted a lot of words here describing psychological & mathematical aspects of handicapping so I'm going to end it by saying that I'm going to try and take my own advice (just given), and NOT OVERTHINK this game...
I've been right in feeling that the Bills are really struggling right now... They lost Shane Merriman, & their defensive nose tackle (Kyle Williams)... They're nifty in producing turnovers on defense, but I think they used up a lot of their quota early in the season... OTOH, I've been making the case that despite the fact that Tony Sparano will probably get fired at the end of the season, the Dolphins players aren't 'quitting' on him... It gets easier when you start stringing victories together (while if you're the Bills, you have a harder time climbing out of a hole)...
So I'm not going to get in to a discussion of what Fred Jackson will do, or if Matt Moore will avoid errors... I'm simply going to go with the clear momentum here & let the chips fall as they may...
DOLPHINS for (1 unit)...
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (1:00 EDT)
Line: Ravens by 7
I'm really pissed right now because I did a whole write-up on this game that took 30 minutes, then the computer froze & it never got published... Same happened last week when I did my NCAA Picks which is why you got nada...
If I have time, I'll re-create it, but if you just want the "pick", here it is...
RAVENS for (1 unit)...
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (1:00 EDT)
Line: Browns by 1
I probably don't have to tell everyone that we're looking at two epically bad offenses here who average 12-14 points per game respectively...
The Browns simply don't have any weapons on offense for Colt McCoy to operate with (and that's not saying he's any good anyway)... That's not good going against a Jag defense that has at least been decent this year... Their best player, corner Rashean Mathis, tore his ACL against the Colts last week, so that could be something for the Browns to expose, but don't count on it...
The Browns have a fairly decent defense as well (led by CB Joe Haden - who shouldn't have any problem covering any of Blaine Gabbert's potential targets)... That means that the Jags are going to have to rely on a hefty workload for MJD... The Browns have given up an average of 140 yards per game on the ground, but as most paper statistics are, those numbers can be misleading...
They've given up 100 yard games to Cedric Benson, Daniel Thomas, Frank Gore, Arian Foster, & Steven Jackson... They managed to hold Darren McFadden to 91 yards... So I'd say that even an objective person would look at that stable of runners & imagine that if you had an elite NFL back on your offense, you'd try to put him to use as much as possible... Naturally, the elite RB's will get their yards... Especially when the gameplan also is that you probably just have to play ball control and not worry too much about whether Cleveland is going to light it up on you...
MJD fits that bill for Jax (as I doubt they want to expose their shaky rookie QB to Joe Haden on the road)...
I think what kind of bugs me about taking Jacksonville in this spot are two things...
1. They are coming off a win vs. Indy... They have a horrible record in past weeks in games after Indy (kind of like the Ravens after they play the Steelers)... Mostly it's becaused they're (Jags) mentally exhausted after playing Peyton Manning... This time, it may be similar for a simple reason of being unmotivated playing on the road for two straight weeks against crappy teams...
2. They have the Texans to play (in Jacksonville) next week... Remember how that game ended last year?... One of the top 5 'highlight reel' plays of the 2010 season... The Texans lost Matt Schaub, so, the Jags might be caught peeking a little ahead... Anyway it is a reason to at least think about just following along with all the little 'bo-peeps' and blindly fading the Browns because they suck... This may be one of the last decent chances for the Browns to win a game this year (as they have multiple games still to play vs. division rival Steelers, Ravens, & Bengals)...
Fantasy players can easily start MJD, but I wouldn't be surprised for the Browns to sneak away with a win... They really probably should have beat the Rams last week except for 2 of the most horrible kicks I've ever seen by kicker Phil Dawson... Rookie receiver Greg Little quietly had a nice game (with 84 yards on 6 receptions)...
I'm fading the public (who like taking the Jags & points & shunning the short home favorite line)...
BROWNS for (1 unit)...
Line: Raiders by 1
I'm probably just as stumped, handicapping wise, as anybody else migh be this week on this game...
There are just too many question marks... Oftentimes, one can look to recent 'trends' that either team has accumulated on how they tend to play SITUATIONALLY in different scenarios... But let's face it, Minnesota has been through 2 head coaches & started 5 QB's in the last season and a half... They're not so far past from being in an NFC Championship game (with Brett Favre as QB), to firing their head coach (Childress) last year, have their stadium roof cave in, get 'other' games postponed (Philly, last year) due to snow... Starting a WR (Joe Webb) at QB last year (after Tavaris Jackson), and working through Donovan McNabb & now Christian Ponder this year... They've had to shuffle players in and out on defense (including losing Antoine Winfield on Monday Night), and face the never ending problem of what to do with Percy Harvin...
Raiders aren't too much different... They're on their 2nd head coach in as many years, have been through 4 QB's, (fram Gradkowski, to Campbell, to Boller, & now Palmer); shuffle McFadden in and of the line-up at will when he's hurt & traded their lock down corner to the Eagles... Oh, & let's not even mention that their owner & founder died a few weeks ago & his son (successor's) first move was tro mortgage the future, draft pick wise, with a QB who may or may not be past his prime...
So if you want to crunch all of that data together, or talk about rushing yards, or rankings, or how a team plays after a Monday Night loss, or following a 10 day rest, or after a divisional game (which is the case for both teams), then you're more of a HAL 9000 than me (& probably won't have any better data to show for it anyway)...
I'm going to come up with (3) reasons for taking the Vikings here (and believe me - ALL of them are full of swiss cheese - so FADE them at will)...
1. I just think Adrian Peterson is due for a monster game somewhere... This is a likely candidate... You could tell on Monday Night (vs. Green Bay) he was itching to do more... The Raiders have not been very stout vs. the run this year (especially on the road)... They let Fred Jackson run for 117 (in a game that the Bills got behind & had to throw a lot)... Then had a streak of 'decent' games (with a caveat)... But the last two weeks have been an abomination letting Willis Mcgahee, Ryan Matthews, & Mike Tolbert run all over the field... In other games, they let Shonn Greene & Stevan Ridley have decent games... If Stevan Ridley can hit you up for 97 yards rushing, what can a motivated Adrian Peterson do?... I don't like betting on the 'hope' that Peterson will have a good game... But this seems a decent spot for it if it's going to happen...
2. The Raiders are in the process of getting over the hump with regards to playing out of the West Coast timezone... Last year they won ZERO games out of the pacific time zone... This year they have only one win (vs. the Texans - in the emotional game the day after the death of Al Davis)... Oakland had to endure a last second stop on a play at the goal line to notch that win)... Personally, I'd rather see a 'trend' where a team can consistently do that (win out of their time zone), before I can back them... The Vikings, OTOH, have been playing fairly decent (and covering spreads) in the Metrodome (vs. Cards, Lions, & even Packers), they barely missed covering against the Bucs in week 2 in a game they were up by 3 scores at halftime)... This somewhat goes back to last year as well as the only games they failed to covers weren't true home games in a sense that they came after the collapsed roof debacle and/or in the midst of QB debacles...
3. Teams coming off blowout losses of 25+ points, (like the Vikings suffered vs. Green Bay on MNF) tend to play better the next week (and have a high 'cover' rate)... Some of that is poor logic because there are NOT good percentages of playing well after Monday Night disasters... In this case, that might be excused because basically any team playing Green Bay at the moment is going to find itself in a disaster situation... Let's put THAT into perspective... Despite the greatness of the Packers this year, their only 25+ point "blowout" wins were vs. Denver & now Minnesota... Denver played San Diego the next week and without going into detail, basically got hosed on a "front door" cover (a pointless FG by San Diego to cover a 4 point line with a 5 point victory with 24 seconds to play)...
I guess I have to pick somebody... Based on my "nature" I'd rather fade the public (who is taking the Raiders to the tune of 93%)...
VIKINGS for (1 unit)...
Line: Lions by 7
I mentioned earlier that I tend to get on a roll with certain teams (or not)... Mostly this year, I've been able to accurately guage the Lions... When they were on a roll at the beginning of the season, I'd favored them vs. the Bucs, Chiefs, Dallas, & Bears... I managed to ditch them in the nick of time (opting for my highest unit play the week they lost to the 49ers)... I've been basically fading them ever since (vs. the Bears last week & even vs. the Falcons in the week prior to their BYE... Coming out of the BYE (vs. Denver) I laid off them (as I've been doing with most teams coming out of BYE weeks this year because of the new rules on practice days allowed by the NFLPA agreement)...
With the Panthers, I've been sort of hit & miss... But (not to make excuses), I'll say that the Panthers schedule this year has been kind of topsy turvy with respect to handicapping angles...
For instance... Who in their right mind would have taken them in week 1 with an unproven rookie QB? (on the road)... Week 2... vs. Green Bay? YGBKM!... Week 3 was a weird torrential rain (vs. Jaguars) that it was hard to get any read on at all... Then, they played a tough stretch of Chicago & Atlanta (on the road) & the Saints... They managed to cover two of those games... Weird thing is though that then they played Washington & Minnesota at home (and despite their losing record, were 'favored' because both visiting teams were playing the QB carousel)... Last week they got trounced by Tennessee at home (but as IO said before, the BYE weeks have been brutal to teams this year)...
Carolina falls into the category of a team coming off a 25+ point loss (having lost 30-3 vs. the Titans last week)... It's traditionally been a great spot to take a team... The next thing you look at is if the team in question is truly bad... Is Carolina truly bad?... I wouldn't say so... Cam Newton appears to headed for 'rookie of the year' honors, & the team has hung in there vs. both the Saints & Packers in losses... They've not proven they can win on the road yet (which is problematic here), but the game at Chicago they probably should have won, and even the Atlanta game was closer than the scoreboard read... Carolina led 17-14 going in to the 4th quarter of that game only to start turning the ball over on tipped ball interceptions... Atlanta scored 17 points off 2 drives that started at mid-field, and another that started at the Carolina 39...
I'm just saying that Carolina, despite having a weak defense that seems to match-up poorly against stat monsters like Matthew Stafford - Calvin Johnson, can play some football...
Speaking of stats... Where has Megatron been latelely?... Granted, he seems good for a 100 yard game every week, but his TD production had dropped from 9 TD's in the first 5 weeks, to just 2 in the last 4 games... Is it because Jahvid Best is on the sidelines?... I say YES... & that's why I've not been in love with the Lions these past few weeks... Now you can add to that that Matthew Stafford appears to be playing with a fractured finger... It was clearly a problem last week in windy Soldier Field (where he was wearing a glove)... His accuracy was horrible... I'm sure it's not worth making too much about, but the Lions find themselves in a spot here where they have to host GREEN BAY (on short rest) next week in the annual Thanksgiving trip to Detroit... Earlier this year it was looking like both teams could come into the game undefeated... No problem for the Packers, but frankly, I think the lions would just be happy to stumble into the game NOT being 6-4 at this point...
They don't seem focused... You could see that last week in the game vs. Chicago (letting their emotions get the better of them with a bench clearing brawl & a lot of 'chippiness' going on)... That game was also a marathon...
I just don't think the Lions are in a good spot to be facing the Panthers this week who will clearly be in a position to erase the memory of last week... So unless something is wrong with the Panthers (that I'm not aware of yet), I'm going to take the points...
PANTHERS for (3 units)...
Line: Packers by 14.5
In the process of doing this write-up, I'm going to attempt to solve one of mankind's long standing riddles...
The riddle is... When faced with the prospect of making a decision to be a "HOMER" (aka - taking the Packersa blindly because, well, they're that good...)... OR trying to be cute or clever & take a team that's not playing well (BUCS), in the hopes that the stars of some statistical varibles will align on command (& probably losing money when they don't)... I'll take the first option... I'll be a HOMER (& take the Packers)...
Not that anyone even really needs a justification for taking them, but Monday Night Football blowout victors tend to take care of business the next week... I suppose somebody could make the 'trap game' argument (because Green Bay has to wheel back and play the Lions on the road on Thanksgiving next week), but it's pretty weak at this point...
Tampa Bay has been playing craptastic this year... I's still wondering why... I've gotta think that Rasheem Morris is not as good a coach as everyone thought he was last year... Or that the squad IS, in fact, too yound, & not ready for primetime... A lot of times, when that happens, a team has to be "mathematically eliminated" before they can relax and play football...
I'm not going to fade the Packers on a roll... Surprisingly, the Vegas exposure to a Green Bay cover isn't too horrible here... It's 88% - 12%, but in a week where there are a lot of short lines & 'pick-em games (more or less), this one may fly beneath the radar of the 'sharps' (who will be looking belsewhere for an angle)...
PACKERS for (1 unit)...
Line: Cowboys by 7.5
I've heard about a stat (which I've actually used to my advantage in past years) which is labeled "divisional dogs of 7"...
In a nutshell, it refers to a trend where it is generally favorable to take the DOG in a game within a conference division... The idea is that division rival play each other twice a year and know the tendencies of each other... Tighter gameplanes tend to lead to tighter execution, yada yada... Also, in some cases, because of the division aspects of tiebreakers & playoff positioning, these games are important & therefore played with a conservative lean...
I usually avoid talking about it until after the midway point of a season, because it is not until then that the playoff picture (within a division), begins to emerge... & to be sure, it's not always a case of one team running away with a division (which it rarely is, historically, anyway)... But these same divisional matches seem to be fodder for one team which is eliminated (or on the verge thereof), to wreak havoc on a team which is moving forward... Always remember that this is a professional sports league... There are IDIOT handicappers out there who write about 3 blurbs about how one team "sucks" and other is on fire... They attach to that a hot week or two of handicapping & think they're ready for the BIG SHOW in handicapping...
All I'm going to say is that when considering a 'divisional dog of 7' (as this game is), you have to go thru a checklist of other factors...
- is it a HOME TEAM as a DDo7?... (that's a big deal - because it means that it's a DDo10 on a neutral field, or even a DDo13 of the home teams were switched)...
- are the talents &/or momentums of the teams really true or justified? (For example: the Redskins have looked horrible the past few weeks, but they have been swapping QB's in the middle of losing their most productive RB [Hightower] & their best possession receiver [Santana Moss] due to injury the past few weeks on offense... On defense, the Redskins have been playing fairly consistent... As a team, they lost to Miami last week (but Miami has stepped it up a notch)... The Cowboys slaughtered the Bills last week, but as I've pointed out above, the Bills are in a funk... Dallas could barely manage a home cover vs. Seattle the other week and they leat a clearly crappy division [Dream Team Eagle squad] embarrass them on Sunday Night Football... Is everyone unanimous in calling the Cowboys a consistent team?... Hell - all year I've been talking about listening to sportscasters talking about the trustworthiness of Tony Romo... Now hes a bleepin stud?... Seems to me the last time I remember him coming in to DC to play a game was week 1 of last season... That is the game that he singlehandedly choked the game away (as a favorite) in the 2:00 portion of BOTH halves of football...
Basically I'm saying that sportscasters and amateur handicappers are your basic run of the mill "HACKS" who I imagine would have difficulty handicapping their way out of a paper bag filled with last weeks "Dancing With the Stars" vote offs...
I'm not saying I'm any better... But one needs to have a lot of humility in this game... & the first thing you learn in producing SEASON LONG winners (especially when you get to the point of PUBLISHING your results - which is kind of like hanging your dick out in public), is to NOT hang the damn thing out there where there are a bunch of people hanging around with meat cleavers...
I suppose on the other side of that argument would be that if you had a small dick in the first place you could hang it out wherever you wanted to (assuming the people with meat cleavers would have a hard time finding it to chop it off in the first place)... But that's the topic for another story...
The bottom line here is that the Redskins (masters of the tomohawk) have looked crappy lately... Some of that can be excused by what I've expressed above... The Cowboys have been 'spotty', but last week they looked pretty good... I will say that traditionally the Cowboys seem to play well around the Thanksgiving time (& Tony Romo has a good late November/December record)... They MAY, just MAY be getting something going here... The Giants losing last week may have energized them a bit...
It's VERY HARD for me to go against the DDo7 dynamic (especially when it is essentially a DDo10 on a neutral field)... To put it another way, if this game were in Dallas, & the Redskins were getting 13.5, I'd be all over them for multiple units...
I'd suggest not betting this game at all (& if you must, hold your nose & take the Redskins)... I'll say yes to that but wouldn't even bet my 'mother-in-law's' $$ on it (if I had a 'mother-in-law')... Which I don't...
REDSKINS for (0 units)...
LATE GAMES
Line: Falcons by 6.5
The "CJ2K" Tennessee Titans rank DEAD LAST in the NFL (#32) in rushing yards...
So... all you amateur handicappers and fantasy football drafting studs who took CJ2K in the first round, stand up and take a bow!...
Alas, you can console yourself with the fact that you didn't pay the SOB $25 million dollars at the beginning of the season... Look - I'm not trying to say anything OTHER than to note that the NFL is full of a bunch of inept individuals who constantly make poor choices when it comes to gameplans, salary issues, and otherwise management...
Want me to break it down for you? The Steelers, Ravens, & Patriots (in the AFC), and the Packers & Saints (in the NFC), tend to run good organizations from top to bottom... That isn't to say that they're all going to go 16-0... But they'll perform fairly consistently year after year...
Wanna know who sucks?... Redskins (Dan Snyder)... Cowboys, believe it or not, Jerry Jones screws up all the time... Eagles (one of the worst - which is why they end up failing with so much talent)... The Texans suck, because they're underachievers, same with the Chargers...
In the middle, you have teams with cracks here and there along the way...
The worst thing the Titans could have done was to give CJ2K a big contract... Football is a business... You pay a player a rookie contract & if he outperforms that contract you consider yourself lucky and move on... Let somebody else pay him for what he did yesterday... You're not obligated to do so... Especially in a situation where his particular skills were due to a lot of variables that needed to come together...
I'll give you an example... Larry Fitzgerald... Do you really want to enter into a discussion with me about how Larry Fitzgeralsd numbers have dropped off like a roick since Kurt Warner retired, or since Anquan Boldin left for Baltimore?... I'm not making a negative case for Larry Fitzgerald, but he went from being a mega-galactic stud, to just a simple stud... But players need the right 'chemistry' to produce megagalactic numbers... I made the case earlier in this thread about Calvin Johnson... Take Jahvid Best out of the mix, & ding up Matt Stafford, and he goes from scoring 2 TD's a game to 2 in 4 games... Not that Jahvid Best is a megastud, but he provided that marginal balance...
I'll cite other examples...
- Maurice Jones Drew performs despite having NO HELP... If you ever got some balance in Jacksonville, he'd be megagalactic...
- Adrian Peterson is the same way... He's a stud because he can perform even among 5 QB changes in the last 15 football games...
- Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, & Drew Brees cam all perform at a high level regardless of who they're surrounded with...
- Arian Foster seems to be close to the same, but he is helped by a massive offensive line... If you break that up, his numbers may diminish... McFadden & Gore are the same way (but they're too injury prone to count on them as being elite)...
- Peyton Hills is overrated, because he can't handle a full workload (so is Ryan Matthews)... Ray Rice would probably notch down a bit if they required him to do too much, but the Ravens KNOW this and use him gradually (sometimes to their own disadvantage as with vs. Jacksonville & Seattle)...
The list goes on... If I'm a GM, I definitely PAY Adrian Peterson his money... Matt Forte is in a rookie contract dispute now... The Bears are coy in the front office... As much as Matt Forte has outperformed his rookie contract, I'm not sure he'd flourish as an individual outside of the type of system that Mike Martz runs there... That's a dicey issue that management itself has to deal with... I like Matt Forte (have him on a few fantasy teams), but if I'm BEARS management, playing in a division with Green Bay & the emerging Lions... I'm not sure I keep Matt Forte at the end of the season... I probably, instead, invest in higher quality key positions (lower on the pay scale - like safeties, or offensive linemen)... That's how the consistently successful GM's (like Ozzie Newsome in Baltimore) do it year after year...
CJ2K... Still electryfying, but probably DONE (in the way Larry Johnson, or Marion Barber, or, [who was that fast dude in Pittsburgh a few years back? - see? I can't even remember his name], or Knowshon Moreno, or Ryan Grant, or others seem to come & go in this league...
Here's a name for you... Shaun Alexander... 5 years ago he was the toast of the league... Until he got his dollars...
Atlanta is going to have to rebound from a tough loss vs. the Saints last week... This game actually means a lot to both teams as they're both more than mathematically away from being eliminated... Normally, I'd be taking the points here (as it seems excessive for the Falcons to be laying almost a TD right after the type of loss they took last week (OT to a division rival)... Furthermore, Julion Jones re-injured his hamstring and will be unavailable...
But I'm going to side with another angle... Atlanta coach Mike Smith made a gamble (in overtime) to "go for" a 4th & 1 which ended up failing & giving the Saints the game (as the play was all the way in FG range the other way after the play was stuffed)... Was it a good gamble?... WTF cares, because as all gambles go, if it turns out right, you're a hero and if it fails, you're a goat... Smith was gambling that he could make a first down against the #32 ranked defense in rushing yards per play... That's it... You take your chances...
He took full responsibility for the decision after the game... He didn't plame his players, or his offensive line... He took responsibility... That and a dime will get you a coup of coffee when it comes to handicapping next weeks game, but I'll at least say that it's an angle which I can use here to say that the Falcons will be focused here... That gamble may have cost them the season... They'll be motivated to play hard and erase it from their memory... Balls are going to bounce as they may, and luck may be for or against you, but I'd prefer siding with teams that have a mental edge, over teams with an overpaid running back that happily find themselves in a division where the perennial kings of the division (Colts), have provided any real stimulus other than to try and go 8-8 & see if that gets you into the playoffs...
FALCONS for (1 unit)...
The "CJ2K" Tennessee Titans rank DEAD LAST in the NFL (#32) in rushing yards...
So... all you amateur handicappers and fantasy football drafting studs who took CJ2K in the first round, stand up and take a bow!...
Alas, you can console yourself with the fact that you didn't pay the SOB $25 million dollars at the beginning of the season... Look - I'm not trying to say anything OTHER than to note that the NFL is full of a bunch of inept individuals who constantly make poor choices when it comes to gameplans, salary issues, and otherwise management...
Want me to break it down for you? The Steelers, Ravens, & Patriots (in the AFC), and the Packers & Saints (in the NFC), tend to run good organizations from top to bottom... That isn't to say that they're all going to go 16-0... But they'll perform fairly consistently year after year...
Wanna know who sucks?... Redskins (Dan Snyder)... Cowboys, believe it or not, Jerry Jones screws up all the time... Eagles (one of the worst - which is why they end up failing with so much talent)... The Texans suck, because they're underachievers, same with the Chargers...
In the middle, you have teams with cracks here and there along the way...
The worst thing the Titans could have done was to give CJ2K a big contract... Football is a business... You pay a player a rookie contract & if he outperforms that contract you consider yourself lucky and move on... Let somebody else pay him for what he did yesterday... You're not obligated to do so... Especially in a situation where his particular skills were due to a lot of variables that needed to come together...
I'll give you an example... Larry Fitzgerald... Do you really want to enter into a discussion with me about how Larry Fitzgeralsd numbers have dropped off like a roick since Kurt Warner retired, or since Anquan Boldin left for Baltimore?... I'm not making a negative case for Larry Fitzgerald, but he went from being a mega-galactic stud, to just a simple stud... But players need the right 'chemistry' to produce megagalactic numbers... I made the case earlier in this thread about Calvin Johnson... Take Jahvid Best out of the mix, & ding up Matt Stafford, and he goes from scoring 2 TD's a game to 2 in 4 games... Not that Jahvid Best is a megastud, but he provided that marginal balance...
I'll cite other examples...
- Maurice Jones Drew performs despite having NO HELP... If you ever got some balance in Jacksonville, he'd be megagalactic...
- Adrian Peterson is the same way... He's a stud because he can perform even among 5 QB changes in the last 15 football games...
- Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, & Drew Brees cam all perform at a high level regardless of who they're surrounded with...
- Arian Foster seems to be close to the same, but he is helped by a massive offensive line... If you break that up, his numbers may diminish... McFadden & Gore are the same way (but they're too injury prone to count on them as being elite)...
- Peyton Hills is overrated, because he can't handle a full workload (so is Ryan Matthews)... Ray Rice would probably notch down a bit if they required him to do too much, but the Ravens KNOW this and use him gradually (sometimes to their own disadvantage as with vs. Jacksonville & Seattle)...
The list goes on... If I'm a GM, I definitely PAY Adrian Peterson his money... Matt Forte is in a rookie contract dispute now... The Bears are coy in the front office... As much as Matt Forte has outperformed his rookie contract, I'm not sure he'd flourish as an individual outside of the type of system that Mike Martz runs there... That's a dicey issue that management itself has to deal with... I like Matt Forte (have him on a few fantasy teams), but if I'm BEARS management, playing in a division with Green Bay & the emerging Lions... I'm not sure I keep Matt Forte at the end of the season... I probably, instead, invest in higher quality key positions (lower on the pay scale - like safeties, or offensive linemen)... That's how the consistently successful GM's (like Ozzie Newsome in Baltimore) do it year after year...
CJ2K... Still electryfying, but probably DONE (in the way Larry Johnson, or Marion Barber, or, [who was that fast dude in Pittsburgh a few years back? - see? I can't even remember his name], or Knowshon Moreno, or Ryan Grant, or others seem to come & go in this league...
Here's a name for you... Shaun Alexander... 5 years ago he was the toast of the league... Until he got his dollars...
Atlanta is going to have to rebound from a tough loss vs. the Saints last week... This game actually means a lot to both teams as they're both more than mathematically away from being eliminated... Normally, I'd be taking the points here (as it seems excessive for the Falcons to be laying almost a TD right after the type of loss they took last week (OT to a division rival)... Furthermore, Julion Jones re-injured his hamstring and will be unavailable...
But I'm going to side with another angle... Atlanta coach Mike Smith made a gamble (in overtime) to "go for" a 4th & 1 which ended up failing & giving the Saints the game (as the play was all the way in FG range the other way after the play was stuffed)... Was it a good gamble?... WTF cares, because as all gambles go, if it turns out right, you're a hero and if it fails, you're a goat... Smith was gambling that he could make a first down against the #32 ranked defense in rushing yards per play... That's it... You take your chances...
He took full responsibility for the decision after the game... He didn't plame his players, or his offensive line... He took responsibility... That and a dime will get you a coup of coffee when it comes to handicapping next weeks game, but I'll at least say that it's an angle which I can use here to say that the Falcons will be focused here... That gamble may have cost them the season... They'll be motivated to play hard and erase it from their memory... Balls are going to bounce as they may, and luck may be for or against you, but I'd prefer siding with teams that have a mental edge, over teams with an overpaid running back that happily find themselves in a division where the perennial kings of the division (Colts), have provided any real stimulus other than to try and go 8-8 & see if that gets you into the playoffs...
FALCONS for (1 unit)...
Line: 49ers by 10
I'm going to start off by saying the thing that's on a lot of people's mind...
When are the 49ers going to have their Waterloo?...
Depending on where your proficiency/aptitude scale is... Some may still be in the "Are the 49ers for real?" stage of cognitive acceptance... If you're there, then you might as well just blow off reading what I write here and go back up to the Packers/Bucs game... Never fear, because I even called MYSELF for being a "homer" and taking the Packers without much thought...
The "Are the 49ers for real?" question was answered the week they beat the Lions... Not that the Lions are that great anymore (as I've poked holes in that idea)... But they were at full strength, at home, and playing to their full potential at the time... I shouldn't have to remind anyone that the Lions had won 9 straight (going back to last year) coming in to that game & also had the services of Jahvid Best...
"Handshake-gate" at the end of that game was pure clear emotion (because Jim Harbaugh - the 49ers coach - knew what winning that game on the road meant to his team)... They've managed to stay on that roll ever since, and now are in a pretty sweet spot pointing towards the division & post season...
At this point, I hardly have a doubt that the 49ers will win the NFC West division & host a playoff game (maybe even with a first round bye)... But a knowledgeable coach should recognize that at this moment he has to guide his team through an entirely different set of obstacles that only WINNING programs have experience in dealing with...
First of all is winning DIVISION games... The Cardinals are in the 49ers division (& frankly have had much more success than the 49ers in recent years in making it to the post season & beyond)... As much 'maligned' as the NFC West is... The Cardinals were in the Super Bowl only 3 years ago (beating the Packers & Eagles on the way)... The har-dee-har-har Seahawks, ended the Saints season last year (while the Saints were a #2 seed)... So ANYTHING can happen if you're a West Coast team hosting playoff games... Hell - anything can happen on the West Coast at any time as both the New York Giants & Baltimore Ravens lost games there this past week to NFC West teams... Of course I failed to mention that the final NFC West team (Cardinals) traveled to Philly and probably ended the Dream Team's season on Lincoln Field...
The Cardinal are playing surprisingly good football right now... They almost beat the Ravens in Baltimore, & they won vs. division rival Rams (in overtime) on a punt return for a TD 2 weeks ago... The 49ers know not to look past them (but that's what worries me)...
Offensively, the Cardinals are vulnerable to pressure that the 49ers can put on the QB... I feel Jon Skelton is a solid NFL QB backup, but it's only a matter of time (& reps) before turnovers can happen... Nevertheless, I think the Cardinals can sort of 'hang in there' vs. a very solid SF D...
On offense, Frank Gore is questionable due to both knee & ankle injuries (but I feel Kendall Hunter is a solid back that's DYING to get some playing time, so I seel full motivation by bthe 49ers on offense to do some damage to a Cardinal defense that has been their weak spot all year...
I kind of have a funny slant on this game... The 49ers have to travel on a short week next week to play the final night game in... drumroll... BALTIMORE... I don't know why it didn't dawn on me at the beginning of the year when I saw that game on the schedule, but that's Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh...
Of course NEXT WEEK is when the sports media will be all over the story as your judicious prognosticators & opinion formers... Anyway, I started this game write-up as the search for the "WATERLOO" of the San Francisco 49ers...
The set up is perfect... The public is fading the Ravens right now (because of the loss to the Seahawks & the fact that they almost lost to the Cardinals)... Ther 49ers cruise into Baltimore on a roll (& what? 10-1?)... Baltimore may hav it's hands full trying to cover a home game vs. Cincy this weekend, so it would be a perfect situation for Vegas to put a small line on Ravens 49ers (something like, Ravens -4.5), and have the public jump all over the 10-1 Niners over the 'iffy' Ravens...
What Vegas needs (this week), would be for ther 49ers to either cover this week, or something where they barely covered a double digit line... If the Cardinals threaten a win (or come away with an upset), the gig is busted... Same, sort of, if the Bengals get blown out in Baltimore this week...
I don't know what's going to happen... I'll just be eating popcorn, but in usual circumstances I'd be taking the Cardinals here, I'm just going to go with the 49ers based on my silly hypothesis... So...
49ERS for (0 units)...
Line: Rams by 2
I'm going to try and make this one shorter & sweeter than the other write-ups (mostly because of my innate fear that if I spend more than 50 words on a Rams - Seahawks matchup, eyes will start to glaze over)...
The most compelling stat to me on this game has nothing to do with Steven Jackson (or even Tavaris Jackson)...
Instead, it has to do with the fact that the Rams are 2-7 ATS this year... That's somewhat of an anomaly, but not necessarily when you consider the insidious schedule that the Rams had to face at the beginning of the year... Look it up (I won't repeat it here), but I've been talking about it on this blog since week 1...
To make matters worse, they lost their top 2 playmakers on offense (Jackson & Danny Amendola) in week 1 & lost Sam Bradford a few weeks later... That was all in the midst of playing a murders row schedule of teams like the Packers, Ravens, & even the Eagles while they were good, healthy, & still motivated...
Time has passed & the Rams have slowly started getting things together... Jackson is back playing, Bradford is still hurt, but he's starting, but more importantly they traded for Brandon Lloyd... I can't tell you how much that means to this team (especially since he was Josh McDaniels protoge' in Denver)... The Rams have managed to win 2 out of their last 4 with that combo in the line-up... Wins are wins in the NFL... & they build confidence & motivation...
TRhe Seahawks were motivated (playing at home) vs. the Ravens last week against a clearly unmotivated Ravens team that fumbled 2 kickoff returns which led to red zone scores by the Seahawks & otherwise poor play by the Ravens...
It's been well documented that the Seahawks play well at home & tend to struggle on the road (& idea which was challenged this year when the Seahawks beat the NY Giants on the road)...
Nevertheless, I'm going to stick to the idea that the more motivated team will win this contest... I believe the Rams are just starting to tast victory this season & are further more motivated due to the fact that their playoff hopes were squashed (in Seattle) on the last game of the season last year...
That's all I need to say... Players still need to make plays, but I believe the Rams might be in a better spot here...
RAMS for (4 units)...
San Diego Chargers at Chicago Bears (4:15 EDT)
Line: Bears by 3.5
I like to try and keep things as simple as possible... In handicapping games, my overriding theme always happens to be which side the public is taking versus which side thre sportsbooks are taking... I try and fit (or discard) all other arguments based on that first one...
So I could really give a FF whether Chicago seems to be playing well lately (which they do), or if the Chargers are in a funk (which they seem to be - just about always)...
What's more important is how the linesmakers & public see the game... The linesmakers are PROS, the public are mostly AMATEURS... Naturally, if I'm going to put $$ on an outcome I'd rather err on the side of the PROS...
Would you go to an investment advisor to handle your finances, or do you trust your Uncle Ned?... How about getting training advice from a certified trainer, or asking your Aunt Polly how to tone down that cellulite... On trial for murder? (as we all now & again, right?)... Want a Kardashian?... Well wait... I'd better not go there...
Bottom line is that this line started at Bears (-4) and moved to Bears (-3.5)... That's not unusual in of itself, but 82% of the $$ is siding with the Bears... If so... Why are the PROS sliding the line a half point in favor of taking the Bears (encouraging MORE people to side with the Bears), when they're clearly going to lose their shirts if the Bears cover?
Oh, & did I mention that the game, thus far, is the most wagered upon game game on the board this week?
You never know what's going to happen, but despite the momentum the Bears have right now, siding with them against the 'Vegas Angle' is clearly a dilettante play... This would be a play that you would consistently lose with if you did it time & time again over long periods of time...
It's hard to encapsulate a ONE GAME scenario intop larger trends... But I gotta look long term & side with the Chargers for multiple units in this spot...
CHARGERS for (4 units)...
So I could really give a FF whether Chicago seems to be playing well lately (which they do), or if the Chargers are in a funk (which they seem to be - just about always)...
What's more important is how the linesmakers & public see the game... The linesmakers are PROS, the public are mostly AMATEURS... Naturally, if I'm going to put $$ on an outcome I'd rather err on the side of the PROS...
Would you go to an investment advisor to handle your finances, or do you trust your Uncle Ned?... How about getting training advice from a certified trainer, or asking your Aunt Polly how to tone down that cellulite... On trial for murder? (as we all now & again, right?)... Want a Kardashian?... Well wait... I'd better not go there...
Bottom line is that this line started at Bears (-4) and moved to Bears (-3.5)... That's not unusual in of itself, but 82% of the $$ is siding with the Bears... If so... Why are the PROS sliding the line a half point in favor of taking the Bears (encouraging MORE people to side with the Bears), when they're clearly going to lose their shirts if the Bears cover?
Oh, & did I mention that the game, thus far, is the most wagered upon game game on the board this week?
You never know what's going to happen, but despite the momentum the Bears have right now, siding with them against the 'Vegas Angle' is clearly a dilettante play... This would be a play that you would consistently lose with if you did it time & time again over long periods of time...
It's hard to encapsulate a ONE GAME scenario intop larger trends... But I gotta look long term & side with the Chargers for multiple units in this spot...
CHARGERS for (4 units)...
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Line: Giants by 3.5
Game write-ups and comments to be posted all week before kickoff... Still waiting for the Philly QB status... Either way, I'll probably go:
GIANTS for (0 units)..
GIANTS for (0 units)..
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Line: Patriots by 14.5
Game write-ups and comments to be posted all week before kickoff... Leaning towards a medium unit play on:
PATRIOTS for (3 units)... (See how this plays into the PICK OF THE MONTH scenario above)...
