2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season aggregate): 69-54-3
2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'unit picks' aggregate differential): (+36)
*all picks 'ATS' (against the spread)
2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'unit picks' aggregate differential): (+36)
2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'exotics' differential): (+3)
2011 NFL Picks (week 10): 12-4-0
2011 NFL (week 10 'unit picks' differential): (+10)*all picks 'ATS' (against the spread)
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PREVIEW: Week 10 kicks us off with a full menu of games, as well as an early start time (Thursday Night Football)... Just a word of caution, if you're a football fan like me, you're still 'forced' to tune in to Thursday Night Football via the NFL Network...
NFL Network does a few things OK but they 'suck' at live telecasts... Everything along the whole operation stinks from the graphics, to the presentation, but ESPECIALLY the announcers... I highly suggest you watch with the volume turned off... Fortunately, nobody has to listen much to ANY announcers on any networks these days because of NFL RED ZONE (which is a 'good' thing that the NFL Network has done)... But that only works on Sunday afternoons, so until they decide to produce a NFL Red Zone version that also ties in UEFA Cup soccer & the latest happenings on DWTS, we're screwed on Thursday Nights...
Please, OH PLEASE, don't get me started on Penn State Alum MATT MILLEN... Just do as I say, TURN THE SOUND OFF...
Also, I gotta say that I've been #WINNING a lot of weeks lately... That's not a BOAST... I actually get nervous when it starts happening... My "picking" record (simply picking an ATS winner for each & every game is one thing... But it is the UNIT COUNT differential that really counts... As of the conclusion of WEEK 9... I'm (+36 units)... A unit is traditionally a $100 bet, but it could be a thousand or whatever you wanted to incrementally make it...
Ordinarily, it would make me take pause, but the fact is that Vegas has been getting KILLED the past few weeks (& I'm usually picking games which side with the SPORTSBOOK angle)... This can only mean that beginning this week & beyond (& given that bias)... I'll be making a lot of picks that don't seem to make any sense at all... I'll hustle it with the idea that if the JOE IDIOT bettor keeps playing with fate & winning, then Vegas is about to close down...
I'll bet that DOESN'T happen...
So to be more precise (& this worked well last week)... My HIGH UNIT PICKS will be those where I think (I hate to say this), that the "fix" is in... OR... The public is being properly cajoled into taking the wrong side... Much of this dynamic occurs in REAL TIME (which is why I seldom do game WRITE-UPS for the afternoon, or SNF, or MNF games)... I feel very strongly that money (won & lost) tells a far better story than the "X"'s & "O"'s on the field... That's just the way it goes...
I'll make a PICK for every game... But my (0 UNIT PICKS) often come when I'm at odds between which team stacks up better ON PAPER, versus my GUT instincts in realizing that a CON JOB is being administered...
So... Let me put it another way... From this point forward... Until the weekend (in the 2011 season) comes that it's 'upset city' across the board & the public gets cleaned out... I'll not only be making strange picks, but IF I LOSE, then Vegas is probably going down with me... DON'T BET ON IT!...
Footnote: Many years of doing this remind me of certain 'truisms' that occur year after year... Oftentimes, these PUBLIC WINS A LOT weeks come somewhere around the run-up to the Thanksgiving-Christmas period... & oftentimes it happens with the NFL (versus NCAA)... Meaning??? The college games are winding down (so you tend to see more 'upsets'), whereby the NFL games seem to be where the EASY MONEY is... So I'm not yet sure which week will be the switch flipper...
That's why it's always fun...
Please, OH PLEASE, don't get me started on Penn State Alum MATT MILLEN... Just do as I say, TURN THE SOUND OFF...
Also, I gotta say that I've been #WINNING a lot of weeks lately... That's not a BOAST... I actually get nervous when it starts happening... My "picking" record (simply picking an ATS winner for each & every game is one thing... But it is the UNIT COUNT differential that really counts... As of the conclusion of WEEK 9... I'm (+36 units)... A unit is traditionally a $100 bet, but it could be a thousand or whatever you wanted to incrementally make it...
Ordinarily, it would make me take pause, but the fact is that Vegas has been getting KILLED the past few weeks (& I'm usually picking games which side with the SPORTSBOOK angle)... This can only mean that beginning this week & beyond (& given that bias)... I'll be making a lot of picks that don't seem to make any sense at all... I'll hustle it with the idea that if the JOE IDIOT bettor keeps playing with fate & winning, then Vegas is about to close down...
I'll bet that DOESN'T happen...
So to be more precise (& this worked well last week)... My HIGH UNIT PICKS will be those where I think (I hate to say this), that the "fix" is in... OR... The public is being properly cajoled into taking the wrong side... Much of this dynamic occurs in REAL TIME (which is why I seldom do game WRITE-UPS for the afternoon, or SNF, or MNF games)... I feel very strongly that money (won & lost) tells a far better story than the "X"'s & "O"'s on the field... That's just the way it goes...
I'll make a PICK for every game... But my (0 UNIT PICKS) often come when I'm at odds between which team stacks up better ON PAPER, versus my GUT instincts in realizing that a CON JOB is being administered...
So... Let me put it another way... From this point forward... Until the weekend (in the 2011 season) comes that it's 'upset city' across the board & the public gets cleaned out... I'll not only be making strange picks, but IF I LOSE, then Vegas is probably going down with me... DON'T BET ON IT!...
Footnote: Many years of doing this remind me of certain 'truisms' that occur year after year... Oftentimes, these PUBLIC WINS A LOT weeks come somewhere around the run-up to the Thanksgiving-Christmas period... & oftentimes it happens with the NFL (versus NCAA)... Meaning??? The college games are winding down (so you tend to see more 'upsets'), whereby the NFL games seem to be where the EASY MONEY is... So I'm not yet sure which week will be the switch flipper...
That's why it's always fun...
WEEK 10 NFL PICKS
THURSDAY GAMES
Line: Chargers by 7
Last year the Raiders got by by sweeping the AFC West (all 6 games vs. division opponents)... Looks like that ain't gonna happen this year after dropping a game to the Broncos & Chiefs in successive weeks... The men in black could look on the bright side... They still can beat up on the Chargers... The way to do that is to just send their punt block unit on the field on every play... Just kidding...
I always like to look at things from a broader perspective than "X"'s & "O"'s... The propensity of both of these teams seems to be so similar from year to year it isn't funny...
The book on the Chargers is that they start slow, then come on strong... They're your basic UNDERACHIEVERS (with an underachieving head coach & underachieving management)... This year they got by some of the "slow start" mojo, but have basically given it right back by dropping their last 3 games... They're RIGHT BACK WHERE THEY STARTED FROM...
Raiders?... Different story but same 'sameness'... They accumulate 'talent' (as in first rounders), but it never amounts to anything... They get things going, but then shoot themselves in the foot... They're probably more underachieving than the Chargers (except for last year - where they swept the division - mainly because the Chargers bungled the hell out of special teams)...
So we could talk about Carson Palmer, or Run DMC being out (again)... Or Phil Rivers being "off" this year, or the SD backfield being what it is... Talented & incoherent (not the same as when LT & Michael Turner were hanging around - or even Natrone Means for that matter)...
Vegas probably put the right line on this game... It started at Chargers (-6), but moved quickly to Chargers (-7)... But look at it from different perspectives... The Chargers were giving away 10 points earlier in the year to the Chiefs (who were 0-3 at the time & many thought were the worst team in the NFL)... I gave you the "Chiefs" pick in that game (& the Chiefs covered & went on to win 4 straight - including a MNF win over the same Chargers & a 28-0 blowout of the Raiders IN OAKLAND)... Last week, the Chiefs came back down to earth by getting humiliated by the winless Dolphins at home (a game I also gave you for 4 units)...
I don't really know what to say here, but I find the Raiders & Chiefs as fairly equal (depending on which direction either team is going)... The Chargers don't really DESERVE to be 7 point favorites here, but it's probably right that they are given that the Raiders 'mojo' from last year of being undefeated in the division is lost & all the other distractions of not having Run DMC in the line-up & trying to work Carson Palmer onto the roster...
Under the same auspices, this line would be Chargers (-1) if the game were to be in Oakland and there would probably be all kinds of action on them... As it is, there's stll a 78% lean on the Chargers (as the public still thinks of them as an AFC WEST Champion & just saws them 'hang' with the Packers (whether it really made any sense at all)...
As I said in the PREVIEW (upstairs)... When in doubt this week, I'm going with the VEGAS ANGLE... Which means...
No Chargers No!
RAIDERS for (0 units)...
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (1:00 EDT)
Line: Chiefs by 3
The questions on everyone's minds (as they will be now & forever as sportscasters, instead of getting down into complicated nuances with regards to handicapping NFL games, prefer to pick the "low hanging fruit") is...
Will Tim Tebow suck, or not? That's basically it... It's useless even reading the way I might handicap this game because 99.9% of the people out there have already pre-determined what they think about Tebow (which means that their lean on this game is already either pre-determined, or leads them to a NO PLAY)...
It's like going to a restaurant and seeing "soul food" items on the menu... Probably most people have never even eaten it, but they sure have an opinion about it... I can pretty much tell you what John Elway thinks about it... Then again, Elway got duped out of millions in a Madoff like "Ponzi" Scheme, so he doesn't always make the best decisions...
The curious thing to me is that the Denver Broncos lead the NFL in rushing since Tebow has been a starter (& "sack" yards are included in that)... Tebow took 7 sacks vs. both the Dolphins & Raiders (both wins)... So go figure... The Chiefs only have 9 sacks ALL YEAR, so I'm sure the result here will fall somewhere in the middle... Oftentimes "sacks" end up being coverage sacks (which is not the fault of the O-Line, but more of the fact that defenses can man up against receivers, and if you have a QB who is not fast or confident in making reads, he spends too much time in the pocket)... Tebow can run, so if he manages to break containment, he can gain chunks of yards... Denver traded their best receiver to the Rams, so in a few ways, Tebow is on his own... Eric Decker is emerging (do you know he LEADS the NFL in touchdowns by a non-QB)?... Anyway, Willis McGahee is probably back "in" as starter (which is good because Knowshon Moreno sucks)... The Tebow phenomenon kind of reminds me of when the Dolphins first started using the wildcat... Defenses eventually catch on, but at first, it's a show...
I can't expect the Chiefs to play as poorly as they did last week (vs. Miami)... But let's face it, Miami had held double digit leads vs. both the Giants & the Broncos in previous weeks... They were bound to break through in a game where KC was a little soft after having beat the Chargers on MNF... This is the 3rd straight home game for them & I expect them to play better...
Champ Bailey is still an elite corner, so I'd expect Dwayne Bowe to be somewhat throttled... Jon Baldwin played well in the win over the Chargers, but took a step back last week... I really think the Chiefs might struggle vs. more elite secondaries (as Vontae Davis of the Dolphins had their number)...
I'm going to go with a game that is closer & more competitive than first look, so I'll take the:
BRONCOS for (0 units)...
Line: Steelers by 3
I love it how everytime the Steelers lose, the public automatically thinks that "well - the Steelers are pissed off right now - so woe be to the foe"... Yeah right... Like the Steelers can impose their will whenever they want... I suppose they just upped & decided to NOT impoose their will against the Ravens (twice)... I hate 'idiot' reasoning...
The bottom line is what I've been saying all year now... The Steelers beat up on weaker teams and have trouble beating better teams (remember, um, the Packers, um, in the Super Bowl)... On a weekly basis, that is sometimes forgotten because people have the attention span of gnats... The Steelers beat the Patriots (so there goes that theory, right?)... Ummm, I guess, but right after the Patriots lost to the Giants the next week, every sportscaster on the planet is saying that the Patriots have "lost it" & are no good anymore (of course they need PROOF, so they whip out the problems they [Patriots] have on defense... See? There!...
So are the Patriots good or not?... I don't know, but of course what we DO KNOW is that the Giants are GOOD (because the sportscasters told us so, because they beat the Patriots)... I hope all this low hanging fruit doesn't rot on the ground...
This week the Giants play the 49ers... So if the 49ers trounce them, the Giants will be back to being BAD again, and if the Patriots beat the Jets, then next week, people will be talking about how the 49ers are likely to meet the Patriots in SuperBowl XLVI... They'll have completely forgotton about the Ravens (who own a better record than the Patriots), and who play the Seattle Seahawks (who BEAT the godly New York Giants in the Meadowlands a few weeks ago)...
Now, of course, the Seahawks got trounced (at home), by these same Cincinnati Bengals (who play the Steelers here & are a game ahead of the Ravens, via tiebreakers, for the #1 seed in the AFC)...
That's not complicated now is it?
The Bengals two losses came against the 49ers (who 'seem' pretty good), and Denver... Their "wins" might tell more of a story... Aside from beating the Bills (who were in a clear "trap" week at the time), the Bengals "quality" wins (/snark) came vs. Cleveland, Indy, Jax, Seattle, Tennessee... Not many wins among that bunch...
The point I'm trying to make is that NEITHER team has really proved itself this year... Cincy is 1-0 in the division, while Steelers are 0-2 (2 losses vs. Ravens)... Pittsburgh's back is really against the wall here if it doesn't come out of Cincy with a win... Cincy can afford a loss, but they're certainly not looking past the Steelers as they are a division rival, plus the fact that they have to play Baltimore next week... It's very possible that the tiebreak advantage Cincy has in the AFC may melt away to being "looking in" to playoff contention by Thanksgiving...
I'd probably say that I'll go with the more veteran team here (the Steelers) over a rookie QB who has yet to see what the AFC North is all about (unless you think the victory against the Colt McCoy Browns in week one was worth of Canton)...
I'll reluctantly lay the points with the Steelers... It's likely to be very windy in Cincinnati over the weekend, so there may be balls flying all over the place...
I'll take the STEELERS for (0 units)...
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EDT)
Line: Jaguars by 3
Blech... Well, the main thing that interests me here is that I traded Andre Johnson straight up for Maurice Jones Drew in a $$ fantasy league... I was hurting on RB's, but at WR on that team I have Mike Wallace, Stevie Johnson, Brandon Lloyd, & Julio Jones (and 2 of them were always sitting the bench)...
I made the trade last week (MJD's BYE week), so I had to hunker down... But Andre Johnson did not play anyway last week, MIGHT not play this week, and has a BYE next week... So I feel OK...
Anyway, there's a chance that MJD may "go off" on the Colts defense in this spot... I hope so... That's about all I can say... The Jags have been playing some pretty good defense, so I can hardly expect the Colts (who are clearly in "Suck for Luck" mode with their creepy owner) to muster up much on offense... Jacksonville used to always treat Indy as their "Super Bowl" when Peyton Manning was playing (and often did well)... I'm not sure if the motivation factor will be less w/o Manning on the field, but we shall see...
Jack Del Rio probably will be fired by next season, so the Jags might just win some for auld lang syne unless they do something incredibly stupid like test out Blaine Gabbert's arm in the pocket vs. Freeny & Mathis... Weirder things have happened...
I'm going to go with the JAGUARS here for (0 units)...
Line: Cowboys by 5.5
I kind of spotted it last week (taking the Jets over the Bills for high units), but I really think the Bills have mostly had their season... To get more "in depth" on that analysis, read my comments from last week (Bills vs. Jets)... I don't like re-writing things, but I think that defensively, the loss of their nose tackle (& the loss of Shane Merriman) has been huge...
If Mark Sanchez can put almost 30 points on you (despite your "ball hawking" defense), you're in trouble... The Cowboys have a much more potent pass rush than anything the Bills have faced this year (save for maybe the Bengals, where they lost)... & I'm pretty sure DeMarco Murray can outgain Shonn Greene on you...
The Bills have been able to utilize Fred Jackson because they can play with, or close to, the lead... If they can't establish that here, it could turn into "tee off" city...
Rob Ryan was coaching in Cleveland last year and held the Bills to 13 points (in a loss) with arguable less talented personnel... So you're somewhat planning on whether the Cowboys can put up 20 points or more on the 25th ranked defense in the NFL in passing yards allowed...
Much hype (criticism) has been made these past weeks over Jason Garret & what Tony Romo can and cannot do... The bottom line is, though, if the Cowboys are going to make any kind of serious run in 2011, it has to start now... The Eagles are reeling again (but not counted out), the Redskins are done, & the Giants face a tough foe this week...
You have to just let Tony Romo play (and win or lose the game taking your chances with that)... I'll say that this might be a good spot for a favorable outcome... The Vegas Angle helps as there is a fairly hefty lean by the public taking the points with the Bills...
I'll take the COWBOYS here for (4 units)...
Line: Texans by 3
The Bucs picked up Albert Haynesworth this week off of waivers from the New England Patriots...
I'm not a big Albert Haynesworth fan (not because of his talent - or whether it's still there or not at 30 years old), but more because of his attitude... I will go as far as to say that playing (in Washington), for Daniel Snyder & Mike Shanahan, isn't the easiest thing to do (especially if you're a fat lazy prima donna)...
Hard to say about the Patriots because he was never given enough reps, but I do believe in "horses for courses"... Haynesworth has always said that he prefers a 4-3 style defense (where he's not required to take on double teams - & where it's the linebackers that get all the glory)... Tampa is a young team, and perhaps their 4-3 is the right fit for him... They lost Gerald McCoy for the season, so I guess I could say that picking up Haynesworth was a good move... You have to remember also that Haynesworth played many years for Tennessee (so he ought to know the Texans fairly well)... Some of the personnel has changed, but Kubiak has been around for 8 years which means that Haynesworth has faced Kubiak often... Haynesworth may be able to help keep Arian Foster from turing the field into a pinball arcade...
Josh Freeman has had a funky start to the year, but he's finally starting to play a little better... The classic book on the Texans is that they tend to toss in "stinkers" against meaningless opponents just when everyone thinks they're unbeatable... They're on a BYE next week so who knows what is on their minds...
This may be THE SEASON for the Bucs... A loss here, & they can all but kiss goodbye their chances of making the playoffs... They're trailing both the Saints & Falcons in their own division, and even though I'd predicted that 3 playoff teams could come out of the NFC South this year, it's looking like they'll also have to climb over the Lions & maybe even Bears (who are playing well)...
I'll go ahead with the BUCCANEERS for (0 units)...
Line: Panthers by 3
The big question in my mind is that do the Panthers DESERVE to be laying points to anyone?... People are still too wrapped up in CJ2K having a rough season thus far... As if... "Oh, CJ2K is a fantasy bust, that must mean the Titans stink"... That's what happens when you go to Matthew Berry for NFL advice... Tasty Gefilte Fish!...
Quietly, if the Titans win here (& the Texans lose), the gap between the two would only be one game... Houston holds a pretty substantial tiebreaker advantage, being 3-0 in the division (which is all the more reason that the Tampa Bay games means little to them - especially while they're confidently waffling about even playing Andre Johnson, or allowing him to heal through the BYE - as if to say - "we've got this win in the bag, no problem")...
Bottom line is that the Titans can't afford a loss here or their season is DONE... There will be no wild-card... Too many teams, Baltimore, Cincy, Steelers, Jets, Bills, Patriots, Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders, who could, in the end, end up playing for 2 wild card spots at the end of the season...
So why again are the 2-6 Panthers favored by a FG???... Well, they have Cam Newton (& are fresh off a BYE week)... Bye weeks have hurt a lot of teams this year because of the new NFLPA rules, more required "time off" without practicing... I've found though that it effects teams more that rely on a lot of 'timing' offensively... With Cam Newton, the Panthers don't really play that way... Their defense is still spotty in the secondary (something that Matt Hasslebeck ought to be able to take advantage of)... He's missing Kenny Britt, but even though Nate Washington has been quiet the past few weeks, he's capable of putting up some numbers here... This is a tough one for me to call, but...
I'll go with the PANTHERS for (0 units)... (Cam Newton has been a 'covering' beast)
Line: Dolphins by 3.5
The Dolphins finally got off the schnide last week & won a game... You could see it working its way towards there for a few weeks (as they'd blown double digit leads in their prior two games)... They caught Kansas City in a soft spot...
This IS NOT a soft spot however... The Redskins have not had much to show in recent weeks & have all but dropped out of contention... However, the loss vs. the 49ers last week wasn't as bad as it looked...
The Redskins are having trouble moving the football with Tim Hightower out of the line-up and having to rely on John Beck... Beck is down in Miami playing against his former team... I sort of like the idea of QB's coming back to haunt their former teams, so I'm going to feebishly side with the Redskins here...
I'll take the REDSKINS for (0 units)...
The Dolphins finally got off the schnide last week & won a game... You could see it working its way towards there for a few weeks (as they'd blown double digit leads in their prior two games)... They caught Kansas City in a soft spot...
This IS NOT a soft spot however... The Redskins have not had much to show in recent weeks & have all but dropped out of contention... However, the loss vs. the 49ers last week wasn't as bad as it looked...
The Redskins are having trouble moving the football with Tim Hightower out of the line-up and having to rely on John Beck... Beck is down in Miami playing against his former team... I sort of like the idea of QB's coming back to haunt their former teams, so I'm going to feebishly side with the Redskins here...
I'll take the REDSKINS for (0 units)...
Line: Falcons by 1
This is a huge game for both these two teams (and likewise ought to attract a decent amount of wagering interest)... Most of what anyone needs to know is there on paper (key players, style of play, etc.)...
I don't want to get in to all the specific match-ups or key players (like whether Michael Turner, Roddy White, Julio Jones, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Sproles, Graham, or Colston will light it up for your fantasy team)... Suffice it to say that one (or both) teams will come to play, and the difference will be who makes the key plays at the key moments... That's football... That's all it is...
Since I picked the SAINTS as my NFC team to go to at least the NFC Championship (& possibly the Super Bowl)... AND since I nominated the Falcons as 'overrated' at the beginning of the season... I probably have to side with the SAINTS in what basically amounts to a 'pick-em' game... The Saints are 'dogs' here simply because of the 3 point home team bias that the linesmakers toss out (which essentially makes them a 2 point favorite - or a 5 point favorite if the game were in the Superdome)...
I can't say that I really agree with that... I think the Saints have been playing very up & down as of late (below my expectations)... OTOH, the Falcons seem to have gotten it together a little... I still think the Saints are the better team, but the Falcons might be catching them at the right moment... If this had been the beginning of the season & I'd seen this line, I'd have been all over the Saints for multiple units... But in this spot, in this moment, I'm making it a tepid no unit pick...
I'll take the SAINTS for (0 units)...
Line: Browns by 3
The Browns have won 3 games by beating the 2-6 Jaguars, the 0-9 Colts, and the 2-6 Seahawks... The Rams have beaten the 2-6 Cardinals...
Real "Tits of the Clashons" battle to be had on the shores of Lake Erie this Sunday... Oh... & add to that that the wind will probably be blowing about 40 MPH... Sam Bradford (if he plays) will be basically be playing out of a walking boot, & Colt McCoy seems to play EVERY week out of an arm boot...
The Browns still have Peyton Hillis suffering thru his "Madden Curse" year, and the Rams haven't had any key players available, hardly, since week 1 (unless you count the capricious appearances from Steven Jackson in his checkerboard battle with health issues)...
If I have to say something, I'll still go with the idea that the Rams have had to suffer harder this year (with a brutal schedule & injury issues)... The Browns have had less bad luck, they just can't seem to get anything going... Their TEAM DEFENSE rankings aren't that bad, but that's partly because they haven't played many good teams...
Gun to my head, I'll have to go with...
I'll take the RAMS for (0 units)...
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (1:00 EDT)
Line: Eagles by 14
This was to have been the DREAM DATE (as opposed to the DREAM TEAM), where Kevin Kolb could waltz into Philly surrounded by his new homies & show the Eagles management what a horrible mistake it made in betting the future on Michael Vick...
Things have a funny way of working out don't they?
I'd love to side with the Cardinals here (given my utter disdain for anything Michael Vick or Eagle management related)... Problem is... I have an even more serious disdain for losing money... The Cardinals offensive line is an abomination & while I never suspected Ken Wisenhunt to be on the "pink slip" list of coaches at the beginning of the year, I'm starting to wonder now... Larry Fitzgerald has to be wishing he'd followed Anquan Boldin to Baltimore...
The thing is that the Eagles match up so well vs. the Cardinals it isn't funny (toss in the fact that I'm sure a few still remember losing the NFC Championship game a couple of years ago)...
The Cardinals can't stop anybody on defense, while their offensive line can't do the one thing (block) what still manages to be a decent Philly pass rush... It has been proven (which I've stated since the pre-season) that you can attack Philly with a decent running game & expose their weakness at linebacker spots... Arizona has Beanie Wells, who has had a decent year thus far, but is not 100% & hardly practicing with nagging injuries... Furthermore, Kevin Kolb (who hasn't even had a great season anyway), probably won't go here due to injuries... That leaves John Skelton who, while he has a strong arm, is not accurate at all & is likely to get punked by Philly's studs at the corners...
The spread is quite high, but I'd be willing to lay the points here...
I'll take the EAGLES for (1 unit)...
LATE GAMES
Before I delve into the afternoon affairs, let me clear one thing up, (again)... Many of you have been e-mailing me wondering why I don't really do 'game write-ups' for the LATE GAMES too often...
Simple...
In handicapping, I feel the 'strongest' bias is with regards to money flow (who's winning the week, the SPORTSBOOKS or the PUBLIC)... It's pretty complicated, because it's more than just ATS bets, it's also "over-unders" & exotics (like teasers, parlays, or money line plays)... Most of the bet ticket info that's available (# of tickets on this or that), is with regards to the ATS bets... You can get statistics on percentages for some of the O/U's, but it's impossible to see any data with regards to exotics (because there are a million combinations)...
So the best 'hack' approach is with regards to the ATS results (from the 1:00PM games, or THURSDAY NIGHT, as was the case this week and will be throughout the rest of the season)...
I took the RAIDERS last Thursday night... Not because I really liked them so much, but basically because 80% of the $$ was on the Chargers... As I've said, the last 2 weeks have not fared well for the Sportsbooks (as a lot of publicly backed teams have covered)...
I definitely want to see what happens in the 1:00 games before I start assigning units (or sides) to the late games... In the 1:00 timeslot, the public likes; Steelers, Chiefs, Jags, Bills, Texans, Panthers, & Rams... The betting is close enough to even on Saints, Dolphins, & Eagles that with the 'vig' Vegas is not exposed... The most exposure (by a fairly significant amount) that Vegas has are on the Cowboys, Buccaneers, & Bengals NOT covering... If at least 2 of those 3 teams cover, Vegas won't be sweating going into the afternoon... Interesting is that the line hasn't moved off 3.5 on the Texans - Bucs, but the 'vig' for taking the Texans has moved to -121... Same thing with Carolina... If you need me to translate that for you... It basically means that of all the games & lines that Vegas has put out, it doesn't seem to mind AT ALL that the public is siding with the STEELERS & BILLS... Which is why I placed a higher unit pick on the COWBOYS above (& 'picked' the Bengals - though it's a 0 unit play)...
In the afternoon here... The exposure isn't so lopsided... Basically, with the 80-20 going the 'Vegas' way (from Thursday Night)... If just a few of the teams I mentioned above go right, Vegas could have made it's book by the afternoon... If that happens, then my 'feelings' towards the afternoon games will slide towards how the teams match up on paper...
But to be cautious, I have to prepare for the 'Vegas Angle' first... Most of these games are in the 62%-38% realm (betting wise)... You'll need to check back with this blog within 20 minutes before the 4PM kickoffs to get a FINAL 'unit pick' offering, but I'll start by giving a few in anticipation...
Line: Bears by 3
60% of the $$ is on the Lions (yet the line has slid from (-2) to (-3)... So WHY do the books want MORE $$ bet on the Lions?... That is the question to ask yourself...
It's likely to be very windy in Chicago this weekend... Also, this was switched from a 1:00 game to the afternoon... Jason Hanson (Lions kicker) has been battling an injury so I don't know if that will play a part... I'm thinking one of those annual games at Soldier Field where you see FG attempts being blown 40 yards off course by the wind on the ESPN highlight film the next day...
I'll take the BEARS for (3 units)...
Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks (4:05 EDT)
Line: Ravens by 6.5
Vegas has a lot of exposure here (86% Ravens)... I wouldn't touch this game AT ALL unless there was a clear bias in the early games... If Vegas has made their bank, then you can bet the game as you want... If the public is winning, hold your nose & take the Seahawks (or don't come to play at all)...
What sort of worries me also is that "common opponents" is a criteria in tiebreakers for division winners... The Ravens are all but tied with the Bengals (record wise), but 2 Ravens losses have come against teams that the Bengals beat (Tennessee, Jax)... The Bengals trounced the Seahawks, so it's not like the Ravens can sleep here... If Vegas is going to TAKE A LOSS on this game, then you have to be very aware of how the othere games fall...
I'll take the SEAHAWKS for (0 units)...
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (4:15 EDT)
What sort of worries me also is that "common opponents" is a criteria in tiebreakers for division winners... The Ravens are all but tied with the Bengals (record wise), but 2 Ravens losses have come against teams that the Bengals beat (Tennessee, Jax)... The Bengals trounced the Seahawks, so it's not like the Ravens can sleep here... If Vegas is going to TAKE A LOSS on this game, then you have to be very aware of how the othere games fall...
I'll take the SEAHAWKS for (0 units)...
Line: 49ers by 3.5
I really kind of favor this game more than any other game on the schedule this week... 68% of the $$ is on the Giants (thinking they're getting a great deal getting more than the 'psychological' field goal)...
I have to check, but I don't think the 49ers have allowed a rushing TD yet this year... That's INSANE... Ahmad Bradshaw will be out for this game... & well, I just don't know... All I've been hearing all week is about how Eli Manning has been "on fire"... But against who? The Patriots #32 defense?... The 1-8 Dolphins where he throws into double coverage and his receiver makes a circus catch for a TD?... Was he really "on fire" in week 7 (with a bye week)... How about when he LOST to the Seahawks at home? or beat the Bills (with zero TD passes) when Ahmad Bradshaw (who's not in the line-up here) ran for 3 TD's against the Bills?...
I'll take the 49ERS for (3 units)...
I have to check, but I don't think the 49ers have allowed a rushing TD yet this year... That's INSANE... Ahmad Bradshaw will be out for this game... & well, I just don't know... All I've been hearing all week is about how Eli Manning has been "on fire"... But against who? The Patriots #32 defense?... The 1-8 Dolphins where he throws into double coverage and his receiver makes a circus catch for a TD?... Was he really "on fire" in week 7 (with a bye week)... How about when he LOST to the Seahawks at home? or beat the Bills (with zero TD passes) when Ahmad Bradshaw (who's not in the line-up here) ran for 3 TD's against the Bills?...
I'll take the 49ERS for (3 units)...
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
New England Patriots at New York Jets (8:20 EDT - NBC)
Line: Jets by 1.5
Final Game Lines, picks & comments will be posted before Sunday kickoff... LEANING TOWARDS:
I'll take the PATRIOTS for (1 unit)...
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Line: Packers by 13.5
Vegas got its pound of flesh yesterday with the 49ers, Seahawks, Cardinals, Cowboys, & Titans (as well as the Raiders on Thursday Night)... The Packers now are looking at the 49ers in their rear view mirror, so they can't afford to get sloppy in these conference games... I'll go ahead & side with the Pack here...
I'll take the PACKERS for (0 units)...
