2011 NCAA (unit picks differential): -3
*all picks 'ATS' (against the spread)
- Link to NCAA Division 1 scores from yesterday's games -
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WEEK 4 NCAA PICKS - 2011
Thursday, September 22, 2011
North Carolina State at Cincinnati (8:00 ET)
NC State is a little depleted on defense, so I doubt that this will be the blowout of a matchup that occurred in Raliegh last year...
Cincinnati, perhaps, comes better prepped into this game as NC State has scheduled only soft opponents thus far... Cincinnati's only loss was against a Tennessee Volunteers team that features one of the better QB-WR passing tandems in the NCAA...
What I look for in these types of games is if the visiting team gets down early (in a rowdy crowd atmosphere), will they be able to stay focused & stay in the game... The Bearcats defense doesn't strike me as being able to completely shut an opponent down, so I'd be nervous that even with a 2 touchdown defecit, they might not be vulnerable to some late game hanky panky... These 7.5 lines drive me nuts in college football with a lot of sloppy special teams play & two point conversions...
So I'll say the Bearcats scratch out a win here, but I'll pass on the line & game...
Friday, September 23, 2011
I think when they scheduled this game, UCF went on the notion that someone said there were "Cougars" up there in Provo (which none of these boys could probably find on a map)... I'll bet they're wondering, in Provo... The following...
Sorry... Not possible... Anyway, I'm not sure UCF will be able to handle the weirdness factor of being in Provo for more than a day... I won't elaborate further... Won't touch the game either (though it has the interest of a lot of degenerate gamblers)...
Saturday, September 24, 2011
Box Score | Recap
Last week I wrote about watching the Maryland - West Virginia game as getting a clue as to how this game might unfold... The Mountaineers got a huge jump on Maryland, only to watch that lead whittled away & they almost lost the game in the end...
LSU, on the other hand, has been colling their heels for 10 days after an impressive midweek road win in Starkville last week...
Normally, I'd love the way this sets up for LSU, but what bothers me is that most people around the country saw the LSU game (whereas only a few saw WVU-Md)... The sharps set this line at (-6), but with 91% of the 'SEC do or die' nation on LSU, the line has moved to 5.5... Why does Vegas still want more money on the Tigers?... This ought to be a spot where you could take the Tigers but the line movent puts up a lot of caution flags...
WEST VIRGINIA for (1 unit)
The 'spy' says:
(result)
Box Score | Recap
Here's another situation similar to above... The 'Noles lost a key (& emotional) game in the spotlight last week to Oklahoma... Its tough for college kids to regroup & focus... On the other hand, Clemson defeated Augurn (reigning national champions & the longest winning streak in the country)...
I've been saying all year long that Auburn was garbage, so the result didn't surprise me...
Anyway, this is a 'terrible' spot for the 'Noles (especially with the public 'still believers' to the tune of 74%)... My main problem is, I just don't trust Clemson... So I'll toss away logic here and go with...
I've been saying all year long that Auburn was garbage, so the result didn't surprise me...
Anyway, this is a 'terrible' spot for the 'Noles (especially with the public 'still believers' to the tune of 74%)... My main problem is, I just don't trust Clemson... So I'll toss away logic here and go with...
FLORIDA STATE for (0 units)...
The 'spy' says:
(result)
The 'spy' says:
(result)
Box Score | Recap
Illinois knocked off ranked (& visiting) Arizona State last week... Some say that was a fluke, but I think the Illini are a little better than what most people think... At least in terms in being able to handle a lesser conference opponent like WMU who had all they could handle with Big 10 Michigan (who might not be that much better than Illinois)... I'll lay the points here...
ILLINOIS for (1 unit)
The 'spy' says:
Box Score | Recap
As I said last week... I'm going with Temple every week until they spit the bit... Maryland came all the way back vs. West Virginia only to come up short... I'd be nervous giving 9 points away to a team that seems to take pleasure in hanging with the big boys...
TEMPLE for (1 unit)
The 'spy' says:
(result)
TEMPLE for (1 unit)
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Box Score | Recap
No line on this as we speak... TCU is starting to drift out of my solar system as it continues to allow 'covers' to LAMO squads (as in LouisianA MOnroe)... I'll stick with them for the last time here...
TCU (for 1 unit)
The 'spy' says: The public is taking
(result)
TCU (for 1 unit)
The 'spy' says: The public is taking
(result)
Box Score | Recap
This is the headliner for most peoples weekends... Alabama is basically just biding its time until it meets LSU... They want/need to face LSU with an unblemished record if they have any hopes of getting to the BCS title game... Thus far this year, The Crimson Tide has been playing a pretty 'vanilla' style of game... I'm not sure if coach Saban is hiding his cards or what, but it's kind of annoying...
Basically, I wouldn't want to be laying 12 points on a vanilla team that can beat you, but doesn't seem to care too much about the scoreboard as it does about WINS... But I suppose Alabama might have to get revved up sometime (they've got Florida & LSU coming up)...
ALABAMA for (0 units)
The 'spy' says: The public is taking
(result)
Basically, I wouldn't want to be laying 12 points on a vanilla team that can beat you, but doesn't seem to care too much about the scoreboard as it does about WINS... But I suppose Alabama might have to get revved up sometime (they've got Florida & LSU coming up)...
ALABAMA for (0 units)
The 'spy' says: The public is taking
(result)
Vanderbilt at #12 South Carolina (-16) (7:00 PM)
Box Score | Recap
I'm not a believer in Vandy being 3-0... Then again... Maybe I am... Vandy is notorious for going 6-0, then ending up the season at 6-6... I'm watching this one just for fun & just because I wanted to say that...
NO PICK
The 'spy' says:
(result)
NO PICK
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Box Score | Recap
I'm using this game as my SEPTEMBER NCAA PICK OF THE MONTH (5 units)... The Golden Bears are getting a point up north... What I mainly like about this game is a revenge motive... The Huskies have had the Golden Bears number the past two years (but that's when they had Jake Locker in town [who is now a Tennessee Titan])... You need an experienced signal caller to get you through tough match-ups... The Huskies failed that test last week traveling to play an out of conference foe (Nebraska) who they have had on the schedule for a few years now (& defeated in the Poinsettia Bowl last December)...
The thing about that game (Poinsettia Bowl) was that for all intents & purposes, Cal 'should' have been playing there (save for a fluky loss to Washington at home at the end of the season)... The loss dropped them to a 5 win season and made them ineligible for bowl consideration...
What's more interesting is that Cal's next game is at Oregon... Normally that would put them in a 'look ahead' position, but that game happens to be scheduled MID WEEK (October 6th)... Which means they basically have a BYE week after this game & will be fully focused... My philosophy is that teams tend to play harder in front of bye weeks because they don't want to gnaw on a loss...
What's more interesting is that Cal's next game is at Oregon... Normally that would put them in a 'look ahead' position, but that game happens to be scheduled MID WEEK (October 6th)... Which means they basically have a BYE week after this game & will be fully focused... My philosophy is that teams tend to play harder in front of bye weeks because they don't want to gnaw on a loss...
Of course I think they fully realize this... & also realize that the Pac 12 is now a 2 division conference... Both teams find themselves in, arguably, the tougher division (with Oregon & Stanford)... Wins will be at a premium & I'll take the Golden Bears in this spot...
CALIFORNIA for (5 units)... - NCAA SEPTEMBER PICK OF THE MONTH -
The 'spy' says:
(result)
- OTHER GAMES UNDER CONSIDERATION -
Tulsa vs. #4 Boise State (-28.5)
Will have game comments posted...
Rice at #17 Baylor (-20.5)
When you have a QB that's in the Heisman hunt (as Baylor does with Griffin), you get all kinds of PUBLIC lining up to pay their money when they play a crappy team like Rice... The 94% support on Baylor proves this point...
To me??? Well - It doesn't hurt when a team has the 'motivation' to score 60+ points... So think of it this way... If Baylor is up 45-0 at halftime... Why play their Heisman QB in the 2nd half... What if he gets some fluke injury with your team 'on ice' with a 7 touchdown advantage & 30 minutes to play... Get my drift...
The best thing Baylor can do here is GET OFF THE FIELD QUICKLY on defense... This is kind of Tom Brady like... So in that case, taking 20 points with Rice doesn't sound so bad... Let Rice score a bunch of times to keep things 'interesting' for your trophy boy... RICE for (1 unit)
#10 Oregon (-15) vs. Arizona
Will have game comments posted... This will be a (1 unit) pick on AZ (pending the status of Juron Criner)
Eastern Michigan vs. Penn State (-29)
Will have game comments posted...
Will have game comments posted...
Rice at #17 Baylor (-20.5)
When you have a QB that's in the Heisman hunt (as Baylor does with Griffin), you get all kinds of PUBLIC lining up to pay their money when they play a crappy team like Rice... The 94% support on Baylor proves this point...
To me??? Well - It doesn't hurt when a team has the 'motivation' to score 60+ points... So think of it this way... If Baylor is up 45-0 at halftime... Why play their Heisman QB in the 2nd half... What if he gets some fluke injury with your team 'on ice' with a 7 touchdown advantage & 30 minutes to play... Get my drift...
The best thing Baylor can do here is GET OFF THE FIELD QUICKLY on defense... This is kind of Tom Brady like... So in that case, taking 20 points with Rice doesn't sound so bad... Let Rice score a bunch of times to keep things 'interesting' for your trophy boy... RICE for (1 unit)
#10 Oregon (-15) vs. Arizona
Will have game comments posted... This will be a (1 unit) pick on AZ (pending the status of Juron Criner)
Eastern Michigan vs. Penn State (-29)
Will have game comments posted...
#15 Florida (-19.5) vs. Kentucky
Will have game comments posted...
Colorado State vs. Utah State (-9.5)
Will have game comments posted...
Florida Atlantic vs. Auburn (-33.5)
Will have game comments posted...
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Will have game comments posted...
Colorado State vs. Utah State (-9.5)
Will have game comments posted...
Florida Atlantic vs. Auburn (-33.5)
Will have game comments posted...
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* Bold means that I'd tend to favor that team ATS (but won't suggest a play)
ATS = 'Against the Spread'
--- other TOP #25 action ---
(9/24/11)
#7 Oklahoma State at #8 Texas A&M
Missouri at #1 Oklahoma
South Dakota at #6 Wisconsin
UTEP at #18 South Florida
#9 Nebraska at Wyoming
#23 USC at Arizona State
#13 Virginia Tech at Marshall
San Diego State at #22 Michigan
North Carolina at #25 Georgia Tech
ATS = 'Against the Spread'
--- other TOP #25 action ---
(9/24/11)
#7 Oklahoma State at #8 Texas A&M
Missouri at #1 Oklahoma
South Dakota at #6 Wisconsin
UTEP at #18 South Florida
#9 Nebraska at Wyoming
#23 USC at Arizona State
#13 Virginia Tech at Marshall
San Diego State at #22 Michigan
North Carolina at #25 Georgia Tech
