Week 3 NFL Picks: 8-8
Week 3 NFL (unit picks differential): +0
Week 3 NFL (unit picks differential): +0
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WEEK 3 NFL PICKS
(check back before Sunday kickoff, as some of the lines may have shifted & therefore the *unit play* variables become altered)
PREVIEW: I read a comment this week that basically said that if anybody won any money betting NFL football in Week 1 & 2... That... Congratulations! You're an idiot...
That about sums it up... I'm happy as hell to be treading water here (while having been 'saved' by a couple of exotic bets [which I usually hate])...
Nevertheless... The season marches on...
WEEK 3 NFL PICKS
(check back before Sunday kickoff, as some of the lines may have shifted & therefore the *unit play* variables become altered)
EARLY GAMES
Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints (1:00 EDT)
Line: Saints by 4
It's to be determined at what capacity Will Smith will be back on the Saints defensive line... Part of the reason that I picked the SAINTS to be the NFC Champions & representatives this year is that they play a tough schedule and will therefore be 'battle hardened' by the time the playoffs roll around... Think about it, the Saints had to TRAVEL to meet Superbowl Champion Green Bay (in Lambeau) in week 1 in front of a national audience... Their quest fell 1 yard short on a goal line stand at the end of that game...
Week 2 they got to play at home... But it was against a tough Chicago Bears squad that won the NFC North last year and HOSTED the NFC Championship... They handled that task...
This week they have to play a Houston Texans squad that is 'feeling it' at the moment because they have a powerful offense (& now also an improved defense with the addition of Wade Phillips as DC)...
I'm going to say though that the Texans haven't really been 'tested' yet... It's one thing to beat up on a hapless Kerry Collins one week, then follow that up with beating a 'Chad Henne' led Dolphins team (that was still reeling from Tom Brady torching them for 517 yards on a short week before)... I'm thinking that Drew Brees will be able to exploit the flaws in the Texans D just a little better...
The Saints... Despite having a huge advantage in the Superdome, remarkably don't have a great record of covering pointspreads there... Since they are still not yet at full strength (with a few interchangeable parts on both offense & defense), I can't recommend taking them and laying more than a FG...
I'll take the TEXANS for (1 unit)... Though I think the Saints win the game outright...
Week 2 they got to play at home... But it was against a tough Chicago Bears squad that won the NFC North last year and HOSTED the NFC Championship... They handled that task...
This week they have to play a Houston Texans squad that is 'feeling it' at the moment because they have a powerful offense (& now also an improved defense with the addition of Wade Phillips as DC)...
I'm going to say though that the Texans haven't really been 'tested' yet... It's one thing to beat up on a hapless Kerry Collins one week, then follow that up with beating a 'Chad Henne' led Dolphins team (that was still reeling from Tom Brady torching them for 517 yards on a short week before)... I'm thinking that Drew Brees will be able to exploit the flaws in the Texans D just a little better...
The Saints... Despite having a huge advantage in the Superdome, remarkably don't have a great record of covering pointspreads there... Since they are still not yet at full strength (with a few interchangeable parts on both offense & defense), I can't recommend taking them and laying more than a FG...
I'll take the TEXANS for (1 unit)... Though I think the Saints win the game outright...
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (1:00 EDT)
Line: Patriots by 8.5
Let's put it this way... The Bills have not defeated the Patriots since 2003... It's not likely that that streak is going to end right here right now...
The Bills (2-0) have surprised a lot of people (NOT MYSELF - who predicted them as a 2-0 team to start the season)... But face it, they've played the hapless Chiefs (who I also said pre-season was overrated), and they managed to defeat the Raiders last week (where the Raiders were playing in a 3 hour time zone difference)... The Bills needed a Frank Reich era 'miracle' to pull that one out...
I'm pretty sure it's going to be tougher on the Bills to score on every single possession in the 2nd half on the Patriots... & even if they do... I'm even more confident that Tom Brady & company can match that output in real time... So the question becomes... Can the Bills afford to fall behind 21-3 at halftime as they did last week?
I think they're spunky... But not that talented (by Patriots standards)... The Patriots defense gave up chunks of yards to Chad Henne (in a weird game)... Then gave up chunks of yards to Philip Rivers (which is not so unnatural)... But as I wrote last week... I think the Patriots are on a mission this year... I think they make it to the Superbowl... I think Tom Brady breaks every record that was ever set... The Bills are a fly to swat in this pilgrimmage...
Now... Laying a TOUCHDOWN is a different story... The Patriots narrowly escaped a backdoor cover (vs. Miami) in week 1... They narrowly beat the spead last week vs. the CHARGERS by scoring a meaningless touchdown in the end... I can't really say where it's going to be... But I can't be laying points with the Patriots in this spot... Then again... I can't be taking points with the Bills... I think the real 'set-up' here is to watch how the outcome of this game has an effect on the lines NEXT WEEK... One of the side stories is the fact that the Patriots have scored 30 or more points in 10 straight NFL contests... The record is 14 (& I think they have an eye on that prize)... I think the Bills can score 30 here as well if the Pats play loose defense as they have the past 2 weeks
So I'll go ahead and take the BILLS & the points, but for (0 units)...
The Bills (2-0) have surprised a lot of people (NOT MYSELF - who predicted them as a 2-0 team to start the season)... But face it, they've played the hapless Chiefs (who I also said pre-season was overrated), and they managed to defeat the Raiders last week (where the Raiders were playing in a 3 hour time zone difference)... The Bills needed a Frank Reich era 'miracle' to pull that one out...
I'm pretty sure it's going to be tougher on the Bills to score on every single possession in the 2nd half on the Patriots... & even if they do... I'm even more confident that Tom Brady & company can match that output in real time... So the question becomes... Can the Bills afford to fall behind 21-3 at halftime as they did last week?
I think they're spunky... But not that talented (by Patriots standards)... The Patriots defense gave up chunks of yards to Chad Henne (in a weird game)... Then gave up chunks of yards to Philip Rivers (which is not so unnatural)... But as I wrote last week... I think the Patriots are on a mission this year... I think they make it to the Superbowl... I think Tom Brady breaks every record that was ever set... The Bills are a fly to swat in this pilgrimmage...
Now... Laying a TOUCHDOWN is a different story... The Patriots narrowly escaped a backdoor cover (vs. Miami) in week 1... They narrowly beat the spead last week vs. the CHARGERS by scoring a meaningless touchdown in the end... I can't really say where it's going to be... But I can't be laying points with the Patriots in this spot... Then again... I can't be taking points with the Bills... I think the real 'set-up' here is to watch how the outcome of this game has an effect on the lines NEXT WEEK... One of the side stories is the fact that the Patriots have scored 30 or more points in 10 straight NFL contests... The record is 14 (& I think they have an eye on that prize)... I think the Bills can score 30 here as well if the Pats play loose defense as they have the past 2 weeks
So I'll go ahead and take the BILLS & the points, but for (0 units)...
Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers (1:00 EDT)
Line: Panthers by 3.5
The bottom line is that the public is starting to get all aboard the Cam Newton bandwagon (which isn't totally hateful)... At the same time, Jacksonville absolutely stunk up the joint vs. the Jets last week (and might be starting a rookie QB, Blaine Gabbert) this week...
Suffice it to say that the Carolina D has not been remotely the same since Julius Peppers bolted to Chicago... Furthermore, they're decimated with injuries... It doesn't matter who starts at QB for Jacksonville, it won't be as hard as facing the Jets (or the Titans - who shut down Joe Flacco & Ray Rice last week)...
What I'm saying is that Carolina, on offense, may be as heroic as they've been in week 1 & 2... But Jax may be able to keep pace...
When in doubt, take the points... I'll take the JAGUARS for (1 unit)... The Panthers don't deserve to be laying points to anyone until they prove they can win games with their new personnel... As close as it seemed vs. the Packers last week, they were pretty much blown out after the 1st quarter (as Aaron Rodgers hardly got on the field until the 2nd qtr.)...
Suffice it to say that the Carolina D has not been remotely the same since Julius Peppers bolted to Chicago... Furthermore, they're decimated with injuries... It doesn't matter who starts at QB for Jacksonville, it won't be as hard as facing the Jets (or the Titans - who shut down Joe Flacco & Ray Rice last week)...
What I'm saying is that Carolina, on offense, may be as heroic as they've been in week 1 & 2... But Jax may be able to keep pace...
When in doubt, take the points... I'll take the JAGUARS for (1 unit)... The Panthers don't deserve to be laying points to anyone until they prove they can win games with their new personnel... As close as it seemed vs. the Packers last week, they were pretty much blown out after the 1st quarter (as Aaron Rodgers hardly got on the field until the 2nd qtr.)...
San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EDT)
Line: Bengals by 2.5
1982 Superbowl rematch... Ha! Yeah, I know, not even close... Somehow I managed to WIN $$ with the 49ers last week... The loss to the Cowboys was a 'push' (but I had them in a TEASE - which paid off, because I teased them to the Giants-Rams game)...
I had no action on the BENGALS, but managed to call the game right (as I had them covering in Denver)...
This is another of the MANY (West Coast teams playing 1PM games in Eastern time zones this year)... I'm pretty sure that when everyone finally recognizes it (because all the idiot sportscasters are finally starting to get their information from internet blogs such as this)... IT'LL BE WORKED INTO THE POINTSPREAD...
But here??? Not so sure...
I actually think you can play "x's" & "o's" here... The Bengals were perceived to be a crappy squad at the beginning of the season... The 49ers had question marks too... What has changed?... The Bengals beat a crappy Browns squad in week 1, but them everyone thought they'd fold with a rookie QB in Denver in week 2... They didn't... So what's the takeaway??? They haven't played a home game yet, & the teams they've played aren't that good, but at least they've been competitive...
The 49ers??? They've played two HOME games thus far and have yet to travel (especially to the east coast timezone - where they have to turn around next week & come back to play the Eagles)... Their record is 1-1, mostly by beating the crappiest of ALL teams in week 1 (Seattle)... In week two, they let a hobbled Cowboys squad (with no defensive secondary, a missing stud WR, another stud WR who left the game with a hamstring injury, a stud RB who left the game with a separated shoulder, a QB who left the game with fractured ribs & a collapsed lung), come back and beat them in overtime on a pass play to a no-name guy whose 'fame' is that he was a reality show star)...
The Bengals arent really that bad on defense & I just don't trust Alex Smith (or Frank Gore - who has only managed 2.5 yards per carry despite playing 1-3 teams)...
I'll take the BENGALS for (3 units)...
I had no action on the BENGALS, but managed to call the game right (as I had them covering in Denver)...
This is another of the MANY (West Coast teams playing 1PM games in Eastern time zones this year)... I'm pretty sure that when everyone finally recognizes it (because all the idiot sportscasters are finally starting to get their information from internet blogs such as this)... IT'LL BE WORKED INTO THE POINTSPREAD...
But here??? Not so sure...
I actually think you can play "x's" & "o's" here... The Bengals were perceived to be a crappy squad at the beginning of the season... The 49ers had question marks too... What has changed?... The Bengals beat a crappy Browns squad in week 1, but them everyone thought they'd fold with a rookie QB in Denver in week 2... They didn't... So what's the takeaway??? They haven't played a home game yet, & the teams they've played aren't that good, but at least they've been competitive...
The 49ers??? They've played two HOME games thus far and have yet to travel (especially to the east coast timezone - where they have to turn around next week & come back to play the Eagles)... Their record is 1-1, mostly by beating the crappiest of ALL teams in week 1 (Seattle)... In week two, they let a hobbled Cowboys squad (with no defensive secondary, a missing stud WR, another stud WR who left the game with a hamstring injury, a stud RB who left the game with a separated shoulder, a QB who left the game with fractured ribs & a collapsed lung), come back and beat them in overtime on a pass play to a no-name guy whose 'fame' is that he was a reality show star)...
The Bengals arent really that bad on defense & I just don't trust Alex Smith (or Frank Gore - who has only managed 2.5 yards per carry despite playing 1-3 teams)...
I'll take the BENGALS for (3 units)...
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (1:00 EDT)
Line: Lions by 3.5
So this is the moment in time where the Lions are going to beat the Vikings 30-0 (instead of the 'other way around') as it was 2 years ago when the Vikes had Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor, Visanthe Shiancoe, & Sidney Rice... Right?
Go ahead... Lay the points with the Lions 'on the road'... If I'm to remember... Until about only 2 games ago, the Lions hadn't won a ROAD GAME in something like 30 games... That's 4 years worth of schedule...
Now they're just going to trample division rivals as if they were playing the Minnesota Golden Gophers...
I can't say I have much faith in Donovan McNabb (or the Vikings offense - save for Adrian Peterson or Percy Harvin)... But don't forget that the Vikings were up 3 touchdowns to the Tampa Bay Bucs last week at halftime)... It means that they can play at least A HALF of football... The Lions had to work 60 minutes to beat the Bucs, then, basically had their way with a crappy Chiefs team that was deflated by losing their star RB to a season ending injury last week...
I'm looking for 60 minutes of football here... I'll take the LIONS, but no way do I put any units on it... (0 units)...
Go ahead... Lay the points with the Lions 'on the road'... If I'm to remember... Until about only 2 games ago, the Lions hadn't won a ROAD GAME in something like 30 games... That's 4 years worth of schedule...
Now they're just going to trample division rivals as if they were playing the Minnesota Golden Gophers...
I can't say I have much faith in Donovan McNabb (or the Vikings offense - save for Adrian Peterson or Percy Harvin)... But don't forget that the Vikings were up 3 touchdowns to the Tampa Bay Bucs last week at halftime)... It means that they can play at least A HALF of football... The Lions had to work 60 minutes to beat the Bucs, then, basically had their way with a crappy Chiefs team that was deflated by losing their star RB to a season ending injury last week...
I'm looking for 60 minutes of football here... I'll take the LIONS, but no way do I put any units on it... (0 units)...
Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (1:00 EDT)
Line: Titans by 7
The preliminary line on this was Titans by 4.5 but it immediately jumped to 7 after the Titans beat the Ravens & Matt Hasslebeck looked pretty good in the process... The fantasy public is wondering when Chris Johnson is going to get started... It might be here (based on the idea that despite the line movement), the public appears all to happy to back the Titans even with a 7 point spread...
I'd hold my horses just a bit on that... Not that that's much of an endorsement of the Denver Broncos (who are still wondering if they'll have the services of Knowshon Moreno, Brandon Lloyd, & Champ Bailey)...
I'll say 'check' here and just take a simple 'sharps' wagering call & sidle with the BRONCOS for (0 units)... Bothe these teams have to settle into less capricious patterns...
I'd hold my horses just a bit on that... Not that that's much of an endorsement of the Denver Broncos (who are still wondering if they'll have the services of Knowshon Moreno, Brandon Lloyd, & Champ Bailey)...
I'll say 'check' here and just take a simple 'sharps' wagering call & sidle with the BRONCOS for (0 units)... Bothe these teams have to settle into less capricious patterns...
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (1:00 EDT)
Line: Browns by 2.5
OK... I've made incorrect calls TWICE with the Browns so far this year, & am 1-1 with the Dolphins... The funny thing is, the Browns should be the easier team to figure out... Miami has Chad Henne who is more capricious than Rex Grossman at QB... Last week, they shuffled in Daniel Thomas to be their workhorse back and he did a pretty good job... Some are saying that this might be the key to Miami getting its feet on the ground... I still think they're, at best, a 6 win team (which is more or less where I had the Browns pegged at the beginning of the season)...
Now that the regular season has started, Colt McCoy seems to be settling in a little better to the Fritz Shurmer scheme... He was shaky in week 1 (vs. the Bengals), but the Bengals can put some pressure on you on defense... They had no problems at hapless Indy last week, so I'm thinking that the Browns are the more consistent team...
Ben Tate went over 100 yards rushing for the Texans vs. Miami last week & even Ben Jarvus Green Ellis racked up some rushing yards (in a pass happy game) in week 1... Peyton Hillis could help keep the Browns in manageable downs & distances here... The Browns don't have potent weapons at WR, but the Miami secondary is in shambles...
I think Brown CB Joe Haden is capable of shutting down an erratic Brandon Marshall & so if Chad Henne doesn't manage this game cautiously, the Browns come away with a win... I'll take the BROWNS for (1 unit)...
Now that the regular season has started, Colt McCoy seems to be settling in a little better to the Fritz Shurmer scheme... He was shaky in week 1 (vs. the Bengals), but the Bengals can put some pressure on you on defense... They had no problems at hapless Indy last week, so I'm thinking that the Browns are the more consistent team...
Ben Tate went over 100 yards rushing for the Texans vs. Miami last week & even Ben Jarvus Green Ellis racked up some rushing yards (in a pass happy game) in week 1... Peyton Hillis could help keep the Browns in manageable downs & distances here... The Browns don't have potent weapons at WR, but the Miami secondary is in shambles...
I think Brown CB Joe Haden is capable of shutting down an erratic Brandon Marshall & so if Chad Henne doesn't manage this game cautiously, the Browns come away with a win... I'll take the BROWNS for (1 unit)...
New York Football Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (1:00 EDT)
Line: Eagles by 7.5 (no line - Vick)
Of course, Vegas (& Andy Reid) has everyone twiddling their thumbs by not posting this line based on the evaluation of Michael Vick...
To me, that might be of some interest to FANTASY players, but not much with regards to this football game... The Eagles own the Giants lately (especially in Philly)... The Giants have just not looked that good in either week 1 OR week 2... Eli Manning looks lost... Their receiving corps are banged up and just not as reliable as when Steve Smith was in the line-up...
On defense, the Giants are being exposed all over the field in their secondary (which is makeshift - due to injuries at both CB & both safety positions in the pre-season)... One bright spot is that they can rush the passer, but that benefit might not help them in a match-up against the Eagles (who can control down & distance with LeSean McCoy - regardless of who suits up at QB)...
Anyway... This will probably be a play on the EAGLES... The "Dream Team" suffered a setback last week vs. a team they did not want to lose to (which may have implications later on in the season if it comes to determining "seeding" for wild card spots)... The 'units' on this game will be based on who is announced as starting QB... I'm hoping it will be Kafka (which will make the line in taking the Eagles even better)...
To me, that might be of some interest to FANTASY players, but not much with regards to this football game... The Eagles own the Giants lately (especially in Philly)... The Giants have just not looked that good in either week 1 OR week 2... Eli Manning looks lost... Their receiving corps are banged up and just not as reliable as when Steve Smith was in the line-up...
On defense, the Giants are being exposed all over the field in their secondary (which is makeshift - due to injuries at both CB & both safety positions in the pre-season)... One bright spot is that they can rush the passer, but that benefit might not help them in a match-up against the Eagles (who can control down & distance with LeSean McCoy - regardless of who suits up at QB)...
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| NOT SO FAST!!!... The Giants have a special weapon on defense... |
Eli Manning (who was getting booed by the home town fans in New York on Monday Night) is not going to want to be throwing the ball all over the field vs. Nnamdi Asomugha & Asante Samuel (the Eagles fans may 'cheer' him)...
Anyway... This will probably be a play on the EAGLES... The "Dream Team" suffered a setback last week vs. a team they did not want to lose to (which may have implications later on in the season if it comes to determining "seeding" for wild card spots)... The 'units' on this game will be based on who is announced as starting QB... I'm hoping it will be Kafka (which will make the line in taking the Eagles even better)...
LATE GAMES
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (4:05 EDT)
Line: Chargers by 14.5
These LATE GAMES (this week) are a thing of beauty if you know anything about sports wagering... I mean... I don't even know how to explain it to any of you people... You'll either know what I'm talking about, OR you'll think I'm an idiot right away... & never read this blog again... Then, someday a few weeks or months from now, when you've lost all your cash on SURE THINGS, you'll be trying to remember the URL to this blogsite...
Let me start by explaining it to you this way... As of the moment of writing this, here's the PUBLIC SUPPORT% (by the public vs. the sportsbooks [who are naturally just taking the 'other side' of what the public wants to book]), on the 9/25/11 LATE GAMES:
- San Diego (75%) vs. KC
- New York Jets (68%) at Oakland
- Baltimore (94%) at St. Louis
- Atlanta (93%) at Tampa Bay
- Arizona (78%) at Seattle
- Green Bay (90%) at Chicago
- Pittsburgh (90%) at Indy
YGBFKM!!!... What's perhaps even MORE unusual is the number of LATE GAMES (7) + Monday Night = 8... Which means that half the NFL schedule for Week 3 will NOT be played in the 1:00 ET time slot... If you're a newbie, don't damage your brain cells figuring that one out, just trust me in saying it's an unusual circumstance...
It could mean one of several things (but probably will end up meaning a combination of unfathomable results, which, an EXPERIENCED handicapper can spot a mile away)...
The SIMPLE truth is this... If the NFL plays to 'chalk' this weekend (& publicly supported teams WIN), then there's going to be a bloodbath in Vegas... The MORE SIMPLE truth is... IT AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN (which means that there are going to be a lot of 'locks' that don't payoff for their betting faithful)... The fact that MOST of it occurs within this AFTERNOON SUNDAY scenario is intriguing...
I'm going to thresh it out this way (& there's really no other way to do it in this scenario which is even new to me)... You have to first start with the EARLY GAMES and figure out where the chips fall)... I've already identified HOUSTON, BUFFALO, CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA, & JACKSONVILLE as possible teams that the public has shunned as being 'take the points' candidates... My guess is that at least TWO of those will be right (but that's why I put small units on all)...
You seriously need to look at what happen EARLY before you plunge into the afternoon... If I'm WRONG about most of those early games, then most of these LOCKS in the afternoon ARE GOING DOWN...
My prime candidates (going down - to the pointspread) are: CHARGERS, JETS, FALCONS, & maybe, believe it or not... STEELERS... I really have no clue... But the bottom line is that I want to CAUTION everyone here to perhaps 'keep your powder dry'...
The UNITS that I assign to all of these picks will be determined by the eventual outcome of the early games (& how the support percentages change)... Right now... Knowing nothing... I have to take ALL DOGS in the afternoon...
"Attica...Attica...Attica"...
& you thought I was going to talk about Dexter McCluster, Todd Haley, & Norv Turner here right? Sucka!... CHIEFS (for now) for (0 units)...
Baltimore Ravens at St. Louis Rams (4:15 EDT)
Line: Ravens by 4
Everything in the afternoon will be based on how I described the CHIEFS-CHARGERS matchup... It has nothing to do with "X"'s & "O's"...
For the "X"'s & "O's" heathen... The best I can say is that if you think the Ravens are a lock, then remember 94% of the bets in sportsbooks are on your side... IOW - there will be a lot of purple & black jerseys in the Caesar's Palace Sportsbook... Have a crabcake & Natty Boh on me!...
I think the Ravens have a chance to cover here... They must be pissed by going to sleep vs. the Titans last week after blowing out the Steelers in week 1... What's 'un-impressive' about the Rams is that they can't seem to get the ball into the end zone (which won't be any easier against the Ravens... who - in the end - I doubt will have to resort to NY Giants tactics - see video above)...
The main problem I see are two things... The Rams are putting themselves in a serious hole if they start 0-3 (in a year that they THINK they can make the playoffs)... So there's a huge motivation factor here... Also, the Ravens play a FEATURE game (vs. the Jets) next week on SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL... They don't want to be caught napping here...
If the Ravens had WON last week in Nashville, this would be a horrible spot for them... But I'm thinking they can definitely win (& hopefully not get backdoored)... 2nd ROAD game scenarios are generally favorable...
I'll take the RAVENS for (1 unit)...
New York Jets at Oakland Raiders (4:15 EDT)
For the "X"'s & "O's" heathen... The best I can say is that if you think the Ravens are a lock, then remember 94% of the bets in sportsbooks are on your side... IOW - there will be a lot of purple & black jerseys in the Caesar's Palace Sportsbook... Have a crabcake & Natty Boh on me!...
I think the Ravens have a chance to cover here... They must be pissed by going to sleep vs. the Titans last week after blowing out the Steelers in week 1... What's 'un-impressive' about the Rams is that they can't seem to get the ball into the end zone (which won't be any easier against the Ravens... who - in the end - I doubt will have to resort to NY Giants tactics - see video above)...
The main problem I see are two things... The Rams are putting themselves in a serious hole if they start 0-3 (in a year that they THINK they can make the playoffs)... So there's a huge motivation factor here... Also, the Ravens play a FEATURE game (vs. the Jets) next week on SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL... They don't want to be caught napping here...
If the Ravens had WON last week in Nashville, this would be a horrible spot for them... But I'm thinking they can definitely win (& hopefully not get backdoored)... 2nd ROAD game scenarios are generally favorable...
I'll take the RAVENS for (1 unit)...
Line: Jets by 3.5
All of the above write-ups have to be respected... All in all, this is a horrible spot for the JETS... The Raiders made a colossal blunder last week by letting the Bills pull a Rich Stadium miracle and come back from a 21-3 defecit to beat them...
It's been much discussed (rightfully so - even on this blog) that the Raiders were in a terrible spot there in Orchard Park (both with the 3 hour east coast time difference & the short week [after having played on Monday Night])...
I think you have to go with 'overalls' here... The Raiders have shown a propensity (recently) to playing well in the West, but having troubles elsewhere... That's a positive in their favor... The Jets have been to two straight AFC Championships (but a lot of that is because they manage to STIFF through a season & then get focused during the playoffs becaused they have a DEFENSE that can travel)...
The Raiders don't have the problem of having to worry about REVIS ISLAND & Antonio Cromartie... Anyone who picked up Denarius Moore this week (in fantasy football - based on his performance in Buffalo) probably made a good move (for the season), but is making a mistake STARTING him vs. the Jets...
There Raiders have only one hope here (& 'It's Tricky')... & don't forget... This is the OAKtown bitchez!
Run DMC (Darren McFadden) shouldn't have tremendous problems putting the Jets defense on it's heels... Despite the blowout last week, MOJO put up decent numbers for Jax in an otherwise horrible effort in the Meadowlands...
Suffice it to say, the Raiders aren't susceptible to the main 'death ray' of the Jets... & the Jets better get Shonn Greene going in this contest... Otherwise there are going to be major question markes going forward (despite the 2-0 record)... As stated above... the Jets have to travel to Baltimore next week to play a FEATURE matchup... I wouldn't want to be dizzy with thoughts having to play the Raiders in their home opener...
RAIDERS for (2 units)... (pending adjustments - as indicated above)...
It's been much discussed (rightfully so - even on this blog) that the Raiders were in a terrible spot there in Orchard Park (both with the 3 hour east coast time difference & the short week [after having played on Monday Night])...
I think you have to go with 'overalls' here... The Raiders have shown a propensity (recently) to playing well in the West, but having troubles elsewhere... That's a positive in their favor... The Jets have been to two straight AFC Championships (but a lot of that is because they manage to STIFF through a season & then get focused during the playoffs becaused they have a DEFENSE that can travel)...
The Raiders don't have the problem of having to worry about REVIS ISLAND & Antonio Cromartie... Anyone who picked up Denarius Moore this week (in fantasy football - based on his performance in Buffalo) probably made a good move (for the season), but is making a mistake STARTING him vs. the Jets...
There Raiders have only one hope here (& 'It's Tricky')... & don't forget... This is the OAKtown bitchez!
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| In New York the people talk & try to make us rhyme... They really HAWK but we just WALK because we have no time... |
Suffice it to say, the Raiders aren't susceptible to the main 'death ray' of the Jets... & the Jets better get Shonn Greene going in this contest... Otherwise there are going to be major question markes going forward (despite the 2-0 record)... As stated above... the Jets have to travel to Baltimore next week to play a FEATURE matchup... I wouldn't want to be dizzy with thoughts having to play the Raiders in their home opener...
RAIDERS for (2 units)... (pending adjustments - as indicated above)...
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (4:15 EDT)
Line: Packers by 3.5
Why TF isn't this the SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL offering??...
OK, I'll leave that aside for a moment (because I'll explain you you all... at a FUTURE time... How 'idiotic' NBC & ESPN are in their research & scheduling... To NOT know the FUTURE & thus compel us all to the past with regards to their scheduling)...
That's why they both make the mega billions (& you DON'T)...
I want to pause here and acknowledge a READER of this blog (where there are 'thousands', believe it or not, even after only a short time in publication)... who sent me an e-mail & a comment about the FEEL of the Packers-Bears rivalry... He made some comments to me about the TRUE nature on the Packers-Bears rivalry (which I'd like to share here - because it's spot on & hilarious)...
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THIS... I can relate to (for many reasons)... I hold TRUE to Packers-Bears contests for several reasons... #1 was because I've only CALLED the exact score & result TWICE in my entire life in the NFL... Getting the EXACT SCORE is kind of like getting a 'hole in one' in golf... I'm a scratch golfer, but I've NEVER had a hole in one... Picking an EXACT SCORE is as much LUCK as skill... But... Many years ago, I picked a 10-9 result on a Monday Night BEARS-PACKERS matchup (which came thru)...
Then later... In perhaps the MOST ENTERTAINING GAME of MNF of all time (at least at the time), was during the Bears SuperBowl season when William 'THE REFRIGERATOR' Perry scored a TD...
I really don't care if you're a Packers or Bears fan... But that was a highlight of all time...
Now... On to today... My first instinct (last Sunday afternoon - which is when ALL 'instincts' for the following week should be formulated - TRUST ME, the Vegas sportsbooks are AHEAD of most of you on this), was to go with the BEARS here... Forget EVERYTHING... This is a divisional matchup between two teams that know & hate each other (like Ravens-Steelers, but even MORE steeped in tradition)... So my initial thought was... Beras +3.5... at HOME?... Sign me up... (That basically means that the Bears are getting 6.5 on a neutral field)...
But I have some worries about a few things... If you ask me... Mike Martz is OUT (by next year) in Chicago... Either that, or Jay Cutler is going to go the Carson Palmer route... The Packers have some injuries... AGAIN... on defense... But not where it counts in terms of having the ability on every snap to clean Jay Cutler's clock...
That's not to mention that Roy Williams is a fat lazy slob and was a terrible pickup by the Bears in the offseason... Their WR crew is about as depleted as the Giants at the moment... Really, all they have is Matt Forte (& I think Dom Capers will be able to somewhat gameplan for that)...
On defense... I don't know why the Bears seemed to QUIT on the Saints last week... I was REALLY surprised (as I'd predicted they'd at least COVER that spread)... In WEEK 1... I predicted that the FALCONS were overrated & this the blowout victory was nothing to build a season upon...
I don't know... The BEARS are going to have to step up to the plate & show me something here... I think the PACKERS have in their mind that it was the LOSS to the Bears last year (at Soldier Field - in primetime), that put them behind the 8-ball that they eventually had to overcome last year to become Superbowl champions...
The BEARS would have to overcome that tide to make me a believer in them here...
I'll tentatively take the PACKERS for (1 unit)... Based on reconsideration vs. the dynamics discussed in EARKY GAMES...
But I have some worries about a few things... If you ask me... Mike Martz is OUT (by next year) in Chicago... Either that, or Jay Cutler is going to go the Carson Palmer route... The Packers have some injuries... AGAIN... on defense... But not where it counts in terms of having the ability on every snap to clean Jay Cutler's clock...
That's not to mention that Roy Williams is a fat lazy slob and was a terrible pickup by the Bears in the offseason... Their WR crew is about as depleted as the Giants at the moment... Really, all they have is Matt Forte (& I think Dom Capers will be able to somewhat gameplan for that)...
On defense... I don't know why the Bears seemed to QUIT on the Saints last week... I was REALLY surprised (as I'd predicted they'd at least COVER that spread)... In WEEK 1... I predicted that the FALCONS were overrated & this the blowout victory was nothing to build a season upon...
I don't know... The BEARS are going to have to step up to the plate & show me something here... I think the PACKERS have in their mind that it was the LOSS to the Bears last year (at Soldier Field - in primetime), that put them behind the 8-ball that they eventually had to overcome last year to become Superbowl champions...
The BEARS would have to overcome that tide to make me a believer in them here...
I'll tentatively take the PACKERS for (1 unit)... Based on reconsideration vs. the dynamics discussed in EARKY GAMES...
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (4:15 EDT)
Line: Cardinals by 3.5
Write-up to be posted before Sunday... This will likely be a (0 unit) play on the Seahawks (but I can be 'talked into' the Cardinals playing their 2nd straight road game)...
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4:15 EDT)
Line: Buccaneers by 1.5
Write-up to be posted before Sunday... This will likely be a (middle unit) play on the Bucs...
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (8:20 EDT)
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Line: Steelers by 10.5
Write-up to be posted before Sunday... This will likely be a (0 unit) play on the Steelers...
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (8:30 EDT)
Line: Cowboys by (-3.5) no line - Romo
Sorry about the absence... I was gone all day Saturday then was sick all day Sunday... Here, the play ought to be with the Redskins... The Cowboys are coming off an overtime victory & are laying more than a field goal here... That's not usually a good spot... Plus, the VISITOR has covered in 6 out of the last 7 tries in this matchup...
What perplexes me though is why the Lions (who visit here next week) are already installed as 3.5 point dogs...
Does the public think the Redskins are as good as the Lions?
I'm going to go with a "bad Rex" possibility here & side with the Cowboys... (0 units)...
What perplexes me though is why the Lions (who visit here next week) are already installed as 3.5 point dogs...
Does the public think the Redskins are as good as the Lions?
I'm going to go with a "bad Rex" possibility here & side with the Cowboys... (0 units)...
