2011 NFL (week 4 picks): 9-7
2011 NFL ('unit picks' total): +4
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2011 NFL ('unit picks' total): +4
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WEEK 4 NFL PICKS
EARLY GAMES
Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams (1:00 EDT)
Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams (1:00 EDT)
Line: Redskins by 1
The Rams were totally humiliated by the Baltimore Ravens last week... I kind of feel sorry for the Rams a little... They started out the season, IMO, with the most horrendous schedule imagineable... In week 1 they had to play Philly (which doesn't look so tough in retrospect, as Philly is 1-2 right now, looking UP at all the other teams in the NFC East)... However, if you rememmber my PICKS on this blog from week 1... I took the Rams & the points that week... Furthermore, I was pegging the Rams as the likely NFC West champions (a pick which I have not abandoned)... Let's review that game for a moment... The Rams struck first with a 50+ yard TD run by Stephen Jackson on the 2nd play of the game (Jackson has not played since as he injured a quad muscle on that play)... Later, they lost Sam Bradford's favorite target 'Danny Amendola' to a dislocated elbow, & finally Sam Bradford himself suffered a bruised hand which forced him to leave the game...
Philly, meanwhile had the services of healthy EVERYONE (a situation which I warned everyone would not last that long - especially with Vick)... Needless to say, that if the Rams had played Washington in week 1 & Philly here, their record might be completely different...
The Rams had to play week 2 in the Meadowlands on Monday Night, & despite outplaying the Giants, they lost on a bunch of crazy plays (like a rookie fumbling a punt return), some silly calls by the refs, & a case of "drop-itis" by receivers in the RED ZONE... Last week they faced a Ravens team that was furious after blowing a game to the Titans & was fully focused, not wanting to cede wins & losses back to the Steelers after the week 1 blowout...
Anyway, the Rams schedule still features some tough games, but then again, ALL the teams in that division have to play the same out of division foes... So no sense of PANIC should arise in St. Louis until they start facing the Cards, Seahawks, & 49ers... The problem here is that all of the 3 mentioned before have "w"'s on their ledger (with the 49ers at 2-1, & 'thinking' they could have been 3-0 except for the miracle comeback by the Cowboys)...
Speaking of the Cowboys, the Redskins are playing on a short week here after losing to a 6 FG effort by the Cowboys on MNF... John Gruden said that was one of the 'weirdest' games he's ever seen (& I agree)... I'm not buying all the Tony Romo HERO bullshit... I think the Redskins let the game slip away from them because they didn't go for the KILL when they could have... Granted - some Cowboys stepped up & made plays when they had to, but a team going for the KILL doesn't allow that to happen... That's kind of been the story of the Redskins thus far this year... Unlike the Rams, the Redskins have played teams that were IN A FUNK at the time of the game (Giants - Cardinals - & even Cowboys)... The Redskins haven't done enough to show a sense of urgency in anythiong they're doing...
Both of these teams have a BYE in Week 5... I think that's important, because the last thing the Rams want is to be 0-4 going into a BYE week... If the Redskins drop to 2-2, probably the WORST their looking at is still being tied with Dallas (who may lose to Detroit this week), & the NY Giants (who have to travel out to Arizona & face Larry Fitzgerald with ZERO in terms of a defensive secondary)... The Eagles (1-2) in that division, face (2-1) 49ers, and may be able to level the playing field some... It could be an important 'swing' moment for the Rams... They are still capable of forcing Rex Grossman into mistakes, & if Josh McDaniels was able to spot any flaws in the Redskins defense on MNF, here would be the chance to show it... Redskins defensive coordinator Jim Haslett was the HC of this Rams team (during it's 1-15 campaigns of a few years ago)...
I gotta go with the RAMS for (3 units) here...
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (1:00 EDT)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans (1:00 EDT)
New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars (1:00 EDT)
Philly, meanwhile had the services of healthy EVERYONE (a situation which I warned everyone would not last that long - especially with Vick)... Needless to say, that if the Rams had played Washington in week 1 & Philly here, their record might be completely different...
The Rams had to play week 2 in the Meadowlands on Monday Night, & despite outplaying the Giants, they lost on a bunch of crazy plays (like a rookie fumbling a punt return), some silly calls by the refs, & a case of "drop-itis" by receivers in the RED ZONE... Last week they faced a Ravens team that was furious after blowing a game to the Titans & was fully focused, not wanting to cede wins & losses back to the Steelers after the week 1 blowout...
Anyway, the Rams schedule still features some tough games, but then again, ALL the teams in that division have to play the same out of division foes... So no sense of PANIC should arise in St. Louis until they start facing the Cards, Seahawks, & 49ers... The problem here is that all of the 3 mentioned before have "w"'s on their ledger (with the 49ers at 2-1, & 'thinking' they could have been 3-0 except for the miracle comeback by the Cowboys)...
Speaking of the Cowboys, the Redskins are playing on a short week here after losing to a 6 FG effort by the Cowboys on MNF... John Gruden said that was one of the 'weirdest' games he's ever seen (& I agree)... I'm not buying all the Tony Romo HERO bullshit... I think the Redskins let the game slip away from them because they didn't go for the KILL when they could have... Granted - some Cowboys stepped up & made plays when they had to, but a team going for the KILL doesn't allow that to happen... That's kind of been the story of the Redskins thus far this year... Unlike the Rams, the Redskins have played teams that were IN A FUNK at the time of the game (Giants - Cardinals - & even Cowboys)... The Redskins haven't done enough to show a sense of urgency in anythiong they're doing...
Both of these teams have a BYE in Week 5... I think that's important, because the last thing the Rams want is to be 0-4 going into a BYE week... If the Redskins drop to 2-2, probably the WORST their looking at is still being tied with Dallas (who may lose to Detroit this week), & the NY Giants (who have to travel out to Arizona & face Larry Fitzgerald with ZERO in terms of a defensive secondary)... The Eagles (1-2) in that division, face (2-1) 49ers, and may be able to level the playing field some... It could be an important 'swing' moment for the Rams... They are still capable of forcing Rex Grossman into mistakes, & if Josh McDaniels was able to spot any flaws in the Redskins defense on MNF, here would be the chance to show it... Redskins defensive coordinator Jim Haslett was the HC of this Rams team (during it's 1-15 campaigns of a few years ago)...
I gotta go with the RAMS for (3 units) here...
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (1:00 EDT)
Line: Eagles by 8.5
I swear I spent almost my entire offseason (I'm talking even before the labor issue was resolved - which I never doubted it wouldn't in the first place)... I spent half the time talking about FANTASY players, & telling everyome that Michael Vick would be one of the biggest 'busts' in the draft...
I've always had to be very careful of how I said that (& who I was arguing with)... First of all, when I said "biggest bust", I was never talking about ABSOLUTE numbers... Instead, everything had to fall into some realm that was BETWEEN what was my major concern (that in his career, Vick has ALWAYS had various health issues because of his style of play & how he subjects himself to 100% of the force of the ferocity of the NFL)... & that... WELL, he's not getting any younger...
You know... The Vick argument in many way was not unlike the Obama argument... What was Obama's record? His past?... I'll answer... Ummm... He was a 'community organizer'... STOP... That's about it...
What happened with both of these people is that they became media icons... The media are 'whores'... They'll suck the cocks of anyone who will sell newspapers or give the sound byte, and pretty much convince everyone (everyone WITHOUT A BRAIN - that is), that it's OK to NOT 'kick the tires' on this jalopy... He's OK... Trust us...
Vick sure had Matthew Berry hypnotized... Yeah... THAT Matthew Berry... "Mr. Fantasy Football GURU" on ESPN as in:
- Effortlessly Sucking Penises for a Newsstory, or
- Expressing Solely Politicallycorrect Nuances
Berry yammered all summer long about how Vick should be the #1 fantasy pick...
BWWAHAHAHAHAHA! (It's a good thing I don't listen to douchebag doughboys)
The Eagles have ANOTHER problem (well - that's AFTER they find a way to pay Vick his $100 million dollars to start a new dogfighting ring)... They traded what could have been their franchize QB to Arizona, & now the Vegas linesmakers can't figure out until Wednesdays or Thursdays what friggin line to put on Eagles games because the 'Dream Team' has 3 options at QB...
Pffft... I don't even bother with it... Vick is not the story to me here... The Eagles have OTHER talent on this team... They also have a lot of holes (something that I URGED people to focus on at the beginning of the season while they were busy shouting "Hope & Change" & "Yes we Can"... oh no wait... I'm getting 2008 mixed up here)... In any case, the Eagles are 1-2 right now... The 'Dream Team' isn't so dreamy & the same problems exist... They have no offensive line, & despite upgrades on defense, they're weak at all linebacker spots... On the positive side, they have LeSean McCoy (who has been putting in monster efforts)... The question is... How does this 'match-up' vs. the 49ers?
If you ask me, the 49ers have had it easy so far... They played the worst team in the NFL (Seattle) in week 1... & lost to a Cowboys team that was depleted & needed a miracle in week 2... I'm still really pissed that the Bengals (despite their problems) allowed the 49ers to come in & win last week (cost me 3 units)...
Apparently, the 49ers opted to stay on the East Coast timezone this week (instead of fly back to California)... So the 'East Coast' time bias may not play a factor... I'm not buying that all the way... I think the last thing I want to be doing (if I'm a 300 lb. interior lineman), is to be sleeping in hotel beds next to another 300 pounder who snores for 10 straight days... GET ME TF HOME ALREADY!!...
Vernon Davis (SF) figures for a good matchup vs. the Eagles linebackers, but Alex Smith can't be trusted NOT to turn the ball over several times... I think the Eagles capitalize, and then the media can go back to talking about how much Vick is the greatest HERO is the history of HEROES by HEROICALLY leading his team to victory (at home - over a pedestrian NFC West squad, who, by the way, is 2-6 out of division)...
EAGLES for (2 units)...
Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans (1:00 EDT)
Line: Texans by 3.5
Somewhere earlier this year I also wrote about how 'Super Bowl' losers have a curious habit of NOT making the playoffs the following year...
I also wrote that I thought the Indianapolis Colts would win the AFC South (granted... that prediction was BEFORE Peyton Manning was ruled OUT - so I think I'm entitled to mulligan on that pick)... Actually - truthfully - I'm not convinced that the Colts are OUT OF IT... yet... We'll get to the Colts-Tampa Bay (MNF) game later in this thread...
The Steelers got blown out by the Ravens in week 1 & then had about as easy of a schedule as any team could EVER have in week 2/3... Seattle (at home) & facing the aforementioned Colts on (SNF) last week (whose problems are well documented)...
The Steelers have not looked 'right' yet this year... They're getting a little 'old' on defense, & their offensive line is in shambles... Rashard Mendenhall is driving his fantasy owners crazy dancing around at the line and not blasting through holes... It's too early to tell, but the Steelers are looking like a team that is going to struggle against the QUALITY teams in the league this year (a pattern - which really goes back to the Superbowl vs. Green Bay)...
So the question is... Is Houston a QUALITY team?... I'm not really sure of that either... I don't like making these types of 'absolute' comparisons, but Houston totally dominated a Colts squad that the Steelers needed their last ounce of effort to beat last week... Don't put too much stock into that (because some of the dynamics are similar to the 'Rams' as described above)... Houston went to Miami the week after & dominated (but they found Miami in a horrible spot)... They played some quality football vs. the Saints last week, but in the end, gave away a double digit lead in the 2nd half to a motivated team led by Drew Brees (who - by the way - is NOT, nor has to be, a WHINING PANTYWAIST like Michael Vick about taking hits in the pocket because... BECAUSE... drumroll... He is a 'smart' QB who can read a defense in 3 seconds even when they're going no huddle & can therefore get the ball out of his hands quickly)...
Note to Michael Vick... In the NFL, as a QB, you 'win' with your brain, your mechanics, your preparedness, and your ability to get the ball OUT of your hands... Using your LEGS will basically just put you in the hospital & on the IR or PUP... But 'Matthew Berry' will <3 you (& Obama will call you to tell you how wonderful example of a DOG FIGHTING RING owner you are)...
Houston, to me... Still has to assume the ROLE of AFC South Champions (if that is to be)... Maybe this ISN'T the perfect representative game (playing at home - against a Steeler team that still has problems on the offensive line - I'm thinking JJ Watt & Mario Williams may be able to 'tee off' on Ben Rothleisberger in this spot & wouldn't be surprised to see Charlie Batch finish the game)...
Still - The Texans have to step up sometime... I like the fact that SIZE of their offensive line may be able to handle Jerome Harrison & the Steelers... But I also think the Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau will throw the kitchen sink at Matt Schaub (as Greg Williams did last week)... Matt Schaub has a history of struggling a little more vs. 3-4 defenses...
The football is a funny shape & the ball bounces weird... I'll have to tentatively go with Houston here for, but CHILD PLEASE... No gambling...
TEXANS for (0 units)...
I also wrote that I thought the Indianapolis Colts would win the AFC South (granted... that prediction was BEFORE Peyton Manning was ruled OUT - so I think I'm entitled to mulligan on that pick)... Actually - truthfully - I'm not convinced that the Colts are OUT OF IT... yet... We'll get to the Colts-Tampa Bay (MNF) game later in this thread...
The Steelers got blown out by the Ravens in week 1 & then had about as easy of a schedule as any team could EVER have in week 2/3... Seattle (at home) & facing the aforementioned Colts on (SNF) last week (whose problems are well documented)...
The Steelers have not looked 'right' yet this year... They're getting a little 'old' on defense, & their offensive line is in shambles... Rashard Mendenhall is driving his fantasy owners crazy dancing around at the line and not blasting through holes... It's too early to tell, but the Steelers are looking like a team that is going to struggle against the QUALITY teams in the league this year (a pattern - which really goes back to the Superbowl vs. Green Bay)...
So the question is... Is Houston a QUALITY team?... I'm not really sure of that either... I don't like making these types of 'absolute' comparisons, but Houston totally dominated a Colts squad that the Steelers needed their last ounce of effort to beat last week... Don't put too much stock into that (because some of the dynamics are similar to the 'Rams' as described above)... Houston went to Miami the week after & dominated (but they found Miami in a horrible spot)... They played some quality football vs. the Saints last week, but in the end, gave away a double digit lead in the 2nd half to a motivated team led by Drew Brees (who - by the way - is NOT, nor has to be, a WHINING PANTYWAIST like Michael Vick about taking hits in the pocket because... BECAUSE... drumroll... He is a 'smart' QB who can read a defense in 3 seconds even when they're going no huddle & can therefore get the ball out of his hands quickly)...
Note to Michael Vick... In the NFL, as a QB, you 'win' with your brain, your mechanics, your preparedness, and your ability to get the ball OUT of your hands... Using your LEGS will basically just put you in the hospital & on the IR or PUP... But 'Matthew Berry' will <3 you (& Obama will call you to tell you how wonderful example of a DOG FIGHTING RING owner you are)...
Houston, to me... Still has to assume the ROLE of AFC South Champions (if that is to be)... Maybe this ISN'T the perfect representative game (playing at home - against a Steeler team that still has problems on the offensive line - I'm thinking JJ Watt & Mario Williams may be able to 'tee off' on Ben Rothleisberger in this spot & wouldn't be surprised to see Charlie Batch finish the game)...
Still - The Texans have to step up sometime... I like the fact that SIZE of their offensive line may be able to handle Jerome Harrison & the Steelers... But I also think the Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau will throw the kitchen sink at Matt Schaub (as Greg Williams did last week)... Matt Schaub has a history of struggling a little more vs. 3-4 defenses...
The football is a funny shape & the ball bounces weird... I'll have to tentatively go with Houston here for, but CHILD PLEASE... No gambling...
TEXANS for (0 units)...
New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars (1:00 EDT)
Line: Saints by 7
Let's go back to my PRESEASON 'predictions' to make it to the SuperBowl in Indianapolis... I picked the SAINTS vs. the PATRIOTS...
In Week 1... I cautioned everyone that the Saints would have to prove their mettle (through a series of 'tests' - or otherwise 'baptism by fire' - if they were to attain that objective)... I took them (& the points) in week 1 vs. the defending SuperBowl Champion Packers, but 'warned' that I thought the Packers might win...
The Saints came within a goal line stand as time expired of pulling off that upset... In Week 2, the Saints hosted the Bears (who were 'hosts' of last years NFC Championship)... They demolished the Bears... Last week, they came impressively back from a double digit defecit to defeat a high powered Texans squad...
If you ask me, the Saints are "on schedule" (but perhaps not FEELING IT yet - becaused I think in their minds their foes are the Packers - and that matchup might not happen again until this years NFC Championship)...
Frankly, the Saints... Despite improving week to week, are not really at full speed yet... They're still just getting Will Smith back into game shape on the defensive front, and their secondary has been having it's same health ups & downs... On offense, they're shuffling receivers in and out of the inactive list, and their running game, though slightly improved, still is a committee...
Speaking of a 'committee'... Has it occurred to anyone but myself that, IN PRACTICE, a 'committee' functions as the exact polar opposite of it's name... To C-O-M-M-I-T is s decisive... "Committees" (you know - the kind of things that Obama seems to love to assemble, basically all just sit around & eat doughnuts, compare PhD's and never agree on anything or get anything accomplished... Then, when they finally do push something through (& it predictably fails), everyone basically says that NOBODY COULD HAVE EVER EXPECTED IT (after all - the 'committee' was a panel of EXPERTS)...
I'm going to UNEXPERTLY COMMITT to laying the points with the Saints here... Blaine Gabbert (rookie QB for Jax), will; be facing the 'kitchen sink' type blitz packages from Greg Jennings defense... Maybe Jax will be able to pound the rock with MJD a little and keep 3rd down distances manageable, but the return of Will Smith will make it harder than it was in weeks 1-3...
SAINTS keep rolling for (1 unit)...
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (1:00 EDT)
In Week 1... I cautioned everyone that the Saints would have to prove their mettle (through a series of 'tests' - or otherwise 'baptism by fire' - if they were to attain that objective)... I took them (& the points) in week 1 vs. the defending SuperBowl Champion Packers, but 'warned' that I thought the Packers might win...
The Saints came within a goal line stand as time expired of pulling off that upset... In Week 2, the Saints hosted the Bears (who were 'hosts' of last years NFC Championship)... They demolished the Bears... Last week, they came impressively back from a double digit defecit to defeat a high powered Texans squad...
If you ask me, the Saints are "on schedule" (but perhaps not FEELING IT yet - becaused I think in their minds their foes are the Packers - and that matchup might not happen again until this years NFC Championship)...
Frankly, the Saints... Despite improving week to week, are not really at full speed yet... They're still just getting Will Smith back into game shape on the defensive front, and their secondary has been having it's same health ups & downs... On offense, they're shuffling receivers in and out of the inactive list, and their running game, though slightly improved, still is a committee...
Speaking of a 'committee'... Has it occurred to anyone but myself that, IN PRACTICE, a 'committee' functions as the exact polar opposite of it's name... To C-O-M-M-I-T is s decisive... "Committees" (you know - the kind of things that Obama seems to love to assemble, basically all just sit around & eat doughnuts, compare PhD's and never agree on anything or get anything accomplished... Then, when they finally do push something through (& it predictably fails), everyone basically says that NOBODY COULD HAVE EVER EXPECTED IT (after all - the 'committee' was a panel of EXPERTS)...
I'm going to UNEXPERTLY COMMITT to laying the points with the Saints here... Blaine Gabbert (rookie QB for Jax), will; be facing the 'kitchen sink' type blitz packages from Greg Jennings defense... Maybe Jax will be able to pound the rock with MJD a little and keep 3rd down distances manageable, but the return of Will Smith will make it harder than it was in weeks 1-3...
SAINTS keep rolling for (1 unit)...
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (1:00 EDT)
Line: Bears by 6.5
The Bears are in a horrible spot here after getting "blowed out" by the division rival Packers last week (& furthermore 'quitting' vs. the Saints the week before that)...
They need something to turn themselves around FAST (or their whole season might go to hell)... Actually - that would not be much of a surprise to me (since I picked them to 'miss' the playoffs this year anyway)... I think Lovie Smith & Mike Martz might be looking to Obama to get them a new job after the year is out...
Maybe the 'Czar of Quitter Teams' position is available in Washington...
If I'm a team that's quitting, I don't want to be facing the Carolina Panthers right now (who have a pretty studly rookie QB who has been putting up great numbers, is kind of fun to watch, & just WON his first NFL game last week)... They also have a new coach, Ron Rivera, who has a winning attitude (successful years with the Chargers franchise)...
I'm not saying that all is rosy in Carolina... Their defense is not very talented & also banged up... They don't match up 'poorly' vs. the Bears... The star on the Bears defense is Julius Peppers (formerly with the Panthers), but the defensive system there has been totally revamped (which takes away not only that edge - but the edge he may have on QB's who are not as mobile as Cam Newton)... The other thing that the Bears have used successfully in the past is their "Cover 2" defense... I really doubt it matters much yet to Cam Newton (as he probably hasn't had the time to read ANY defenses)... He's still just playing like he's at Auburn...
I'm going to have to go with the PANTHERS here (in a possible upset) for (4 units)...
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (1:00 EDT)
They need something to turn themselves around FAST (or their whole season might go to hell)... Actually - that would not be much of a surprise to me (since I picked them to 'miss' the playoffs this year anyway)... I think Lovie Smith & Mike Martz might be looking to Obama to get them a new job after the year is out...
Maybe the 'Czar of Quitter Teams' position is available in Washington...
If I'm a team that's quitting, I don't want to be facing the Carolina Panthers right now (who have a pretty studly rookie QB who has been putting up great numbers, is kind of fun to watch, & just WON his first NFL game last week)... They also have a new coach, Ron Rivera, who has a winning attitude (successful years with the Chargers franchise)...
I'm not saying that all is rosy in Carolina... Their defense is not very talented & also banged up... They don't match up 'poorly' vs. the Bears... The star on the Bears defense is Julius Peppers (formerly with the Panthers), but the defensive system there has been totally revamped (which takes away not only that edge - but the edge he may have on QB's who are not as mobile as Cam Newton)... The other thing that the Bears have used successfully in the past is their "Cover 2" defense... I really doubt it matters much yet to Cam Newton (as he probably hasn't had the time to read ANY defenses)... He's still just playing like he's at Auburn...
I'm going to have to go with the PANTHERS here (in a possible upset) for (4 units)...
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (1:00 EDT)
Line: Cowboys by 1.5
I made a comment during the Cowboys - Redskins game last week that after about the 2nd trip to the RED ZONE for the Cowboys, I thought that Romo was a 'liability' (& that Kitna should have been playing)... I still don't feel 'incorrect' for making that assessment...
Of course, if you're a normal football fan, you're just TOLD WHAT TO THINK... So, of course, since the big heroic Tony Romo's TEAM managed to gut it out & win a game (with 6 field goals, a strip sack, an interception, a blown play, a facemask call, & a blocked FG)... Then... OF COURSE... Romo is a hero because he played through it all with an owie...
WTF Ever...
The bottom line here is... When you cut through all the melodramatic crap... That the playbook for Dallas, in this moment, basically consists of 2 plays...
- Hand off to Felix Jones and let his separated shoulder take the hit instad of Romo's ribs
- Get the ball to Jason Witten as fast as possible
Notwithstanding, the Cowboys find themselves at a pretty decent 2-1... Ironically, their BEST game of the year came in a LOSS (versus the Jets)... Where somehow they snaked out wins vs. San Francisco & Washington with uneven efforts...
I think it's going to take more than an uneven effort to beat the Lions... The Lions can really beat you downfield with their talent at QB & WR... What might be bothersome though is the hack of an offensive line that Matthew Stafford is playing behind... It wasn't so obvious until last week when Jared Allen & the Vikes were 'teeing off' on Stafford in the first half... I wouldn't expect any LESS unwelcome treatment from a Rob Ryan defense with DeMarcus Ware leading the charge... Stafford may find himself having to release the ball quickly & therefore may not find an ample number of downfield targets to Calvin Johnson because there simply might not be enough time to develop those plays... Instead, Jahvid Best may end up playing more of a Darren Sproles role here which keeps the chains moving for the Lions...
I really don't know where to go with this game... On paper (he said ON PAPER), the Stafford-Johnson combo ought to play well vs. a Cowboy defense that is decimated with injuries to key personnel... However, up front, the Cowboys can match up vs. a weak Lions front line (so 'timing' ought to play a factor on a lot of plays)... & if Stafford gets knocked out of the game, the advantage may switch to the Cowboys...
I've heard that the Cowboys are going to try and grind it out & start players on offense (like Bryant, Romo, & Jones)... They have a BYE week coming up & I think they feel they can heal a little THEN (but don't want to sacrifice game efforts in the process... With a win here, they could stay atop the NFC East race in the standings (whereas a loss drops them back in the muck)...
The public is all over the Lions with this point spread to the tune of 87%... I think that's kind of cocky, considering it took the whole 60 minutes (and a lot of help from idiot gameplanning & mistakes by the Vikings) to push a 3 point spread in the Metrodome last week...
I'll go with the LIONS for (0 units)...
I've been doing this little 'unofficial' observation that, this year, there have been (& will be) a lot of games that feature the FOES of SuperBowls gone by... I know that sounds like "duh - there are bound to be a lot EVERY year", but not so fast... Superbowls are played AFC vs. NFC... There have been 45 of them... So just off that baseline, there is a 1 in 45 chance of seeing a Super Bowl rematch... LESS than that when you account for the fact that the "Steelers - Cowboys" have faced off TWICE (as have the Bengals - 49ers)... Also, MOST of a 16 game schedule is played in division & in conference, meaning there are only a few shots each year that a team will face an out of conference team... Add to that that there are some teams that have NEVER made a Superbowl, the divisions, etc... I don't think it's all that common (but I'll have to look into it)...
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (1:00 EDT)
Of course, if you're a normal football fan, you're just TOLD WHAT TO THINK... So, of course, since the big heroic Tony Romo's TEAM managed to gut it out & win a game (with 6 field goals, a strip sack, an interception, a blown play, a facemask call, & a blocked FG)... Then... OF COURSE... Romo is a hero because he played through it all with an owie...
WTF Ever...
The bottom line here is... When you cut through all the melodramatic crap... That the playbook for Dallas, in this moment, basically consists of 2 plays...
- Hand off to Felix Jones and let his separated shoulder take the hit instad of Romo's ribs
- Get the ball to Jason Witten as fast as possible
Notwithstanding, the Cowboys find themselves at a pretty decent 2-1... Ironically, their BEST game of the year came in a LOSS (versus the Jets)... Where somehow they snaked out wins vs. San Francisco & Washington with uneven efforts...
I think it's going to take more than an uneven effort to beat the Lions... The Lions can really beat you downfield with their talent at QB & WR... What might be bothersome though is the hack of an offensive line that Matthew Stafford is playing behind... It wasn't so obvious until last week when Jared Allen & the Vikes were 'teeing off' on Stafford in the first half... I wouldn't expect any LESS unwelcome treatment from a Rob Ryan defense with DeMarcus Ware leading the charge... Stafford may find himself having to release the ball quickly & therefore may not find an ample number of downfield targets to Calvin Johnson because there simply might not be enough time to develop those plays... Instead, Jahvid Best may end up playing more of a Darren Sproles role here which keeps the chains moving for the Lions...
I really don't know where to go with this game... On paper (he said ON PAPER), the Stafford-Johnson combo ought to play well vs. a Cowboy defense that is decimated with injuries to key personnel... However, up front, the Cowboys can match up vs. a weak Lions front line (so 'timing' ought to play a factor on a lot of plays)... & if Stafford gets knocked out of the game, the advantage may switch to the Cowboys...
I've heard that the Cowboys are going to try and grind it out & start players on offense (like Bryant, Romo, & Jones)... They have a BYE week coming up & I think they feel they can heal a little THEN (but don't want to sacrifice game efforts in the process... With a win here, they could stay atop the NFC East race in the standings (whereas a loss drops them back in the muck)...
The public is all over the Lions with this point spread to the tune of 87%... I think that's kind of cocky, considering it took the whole 60 minutes (and a lot of help from idiot gameplanning & mistakes by the Vikings) to push a 3 point spread in the Metrodome last week...
I'll go with the LIONS for (0 units)...
Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs (1:00 EDT)
Line: Vikings by 1.5
I've been doing this little 'unofficial' observation that, this year, there have been (& will be) a lot of games that feature the FOES of SuperBowls gone by... I know that sounds like "duh - there are bound to be a lot EVERY year", but not so fast... Superbowls are played AFC vs. NFC... There have been 45 of them... So just off that baseline, there is a 1 in 45 chance of seeing a Super Bowl rematch... LESS than that when you account for the fact that the "Steelers - Cowboys" have faced off TWICE (as have the Bengals - 49ers)... Also, MOST of a 16 game schedule is played in division & in conference, meaning there are only a few shots each year that a team will face an out of conference team... Add to that that there are some teams that have NEVER made a Superbowl, the divisions, etc... I don't think it's all that common (but I'll have to look into it)...
This year, in week 2... The Steelers played the Seahawks (rematch of Superbowl XL in Detroit)... Last week you had the Bengals - 49ers (who have met TWICE, as stated above - ironically - the first of thos matchups was also held in Detroit - so the only two SuperBowls played in the city of Detroit have been accounted for)...
Anyway... In those Superbowls... SF beat the Bengals (both times), then they beat them last week... In Superbowl XL, the Steelers beat the Seahawks... Then they beat them again in week 2...
So here we have the Chiefs & Vikings... (a rematch of Superbowl 4)... The Chiefs won that superbowl (for Hank Stram) behind quarterback Len Dawson & Mike Garrett & a defense led by Buck Buchanan, Curly Culp, & Willie Lanier...The Vikings (with Joe Kapp & featuring the "purple people eaters" defense led by Carl Eller, Jim Marshall & Co. edged out what would become the worst record for futility of any franchise in the Superbowl (0-4, with losses to the Chiefs, Dolphins, Steelers, & Raiders)... Later that would be tied by the Buffalo Bills who are also 0-4 in Superbowls... The Broncos TRIED to join that list (losing to the Cowboys, Redskins, & Giants) before finally coming thru vs. the Packers & adding a 2nd Superbowl (vs. the Falcons) after that...
Anyway... Rather than talk about how hapless Todd Haley & Leslie Frazier are, or how Donovan McNabb is toast, or that the Chiefs are a torn ACL waiting to happen... I'm just going to go with the mojo of yesteryear... Since 49ers & Steelers (this year) have been able to duplicate feat, I'll roll with that angle & take the...
CHIEFS here for (1 ceremonial unit)...
But just to let you know that I'm not standing totally on ceremony... The Chiefs (this year) have played the: Bills - Lions - Chargers... The Vikings have played: Chargers - Bucs - Lions... Two 'common' opponents... The public thinks the Vikes are a better team because they played the Lions tight (at home) while the Lions destroyed the Chiefs in a game where they were auditioning a new safety & lost their star running back... The linesmakers made BOTH these teams DOGS @ San Diego (but the Chiefs were -14.5, while the Vikes were -8.5)...
So does that make the Vikes 6 points better? (Meaning: on a neutral field, the Chiefs - Vikes line should be Vikings -1.5)... Why the 4.5 point discrepancy? Why would Vegas, with 90% of the public $$ on the Vikings already... Toss the public a 4.5 point bone?... Just asking...
Line: Browns by 1
The public really is having a hard time getting itself behind the Browns... Basically I don't blame them... I made them a solid pick in week 1 (vs. the Bengals - & LOST)... Then I tried to fade them in week 2 vs. Indy (& Indy sucked which gave the Browns an easy win)... Last week the Browns fought hard to win a tight game vs. the Dolphins (but failed to cover a tight spread... Yeah - so basically I can see why the public is having difficulty backing the Browns... They don't have much on offense except for Peyton Hillis & although Colt McCoy tries to get things to happen, they just don't have an elite WR package that can be a difference maker... Peyton Hills was OUT vs. the Dolphins & may be out this week as well (battling a strep throat)... Isn't that like an annual thing in the Cleveland locker room? Or is it just the Madden curse?
The Titans are just about as weird... CJ2K has fantasy owners panicking... I hate to say "I told you so" for the 1000th time... But... ITYS... It's not that he won't come thru and maybe win some games for you down the stretch, but you need a reliable point getter each week... He's already cost you 3 weeks of production (& we're not even at the BYE weeks yet)... Most fantasy leagues are 13 or 14 weeks long (regular season)... So you have only 9 more chances to "make it right"... What's worse is that he cost a lot of fantasy drafters a #1 or #2 pick... So their NEXT best player came in at #20 (which only affords you 'the rest' of the top 5 QB's - or an out of the top 5 WR)... Then you go BYE BYE until about pick 40...
Kenny Britt was lighting it up for the Titans until he tore an ACL last week vs. Denver... So here, Matt Hasslebeck will be without his top (really ONLY) weapon thus far on offense... They seriously need to get CJ2K going here, because although Matt Hasslebeck has Nate Washington to throw to, he'll be covered by Joe Haden (which would not have been the same if Haden had the Britt responsibility & Washington were an option)... The Titans are limited in options...
Furthermore, the Browns can get to the QB... They have 9 sacks in 3 weeks... I don't expect much from this game (in terms of interest or fireworks)... Both teams need to just come in and manage the game as best as possible... Isn't this the 3rd HOME game (out of 4) for the Browns? What's up with that? If they're going to get to 8-8 then they need to take advantage of these situations... Quietly, they're 2-1 (& if they win - could even have the LEAD in the NFC North - Home of the Steelers & Ravens)... That would be the most "under the radar" 3-1 team in the history of the NFL (considering that the Patriots have to WIN to get to 3-1 - so do the Saints)... The Packers? I'm not too worried about them FALLING to 3-1, but we'll get to the curious case of the Buffalo Bills later in the program...
Anyway, the public doesn't seem too interested in the Browns... They're on the Titans 64%...
I'll go with the BROWNS here for (0 units)...
Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EDT)
I really hate this line of 4.5... Normally I'd be taking the home team in a spot like this, but Mike McCarthy actually has a pretty good record traveling to the West Coast (3-0)...
The Falcons are (1-2), and this is an afternoon game... The (2-1) Saints will have finalized their result vs. Jacksonville by the time of this kickoff (likely a WIN, to take them 3-1)... The Falcons simply cannot afford to fall to 1-3 (with the Green Bay Packers coming to visit next week)... Even though it's early, this may be their season on the line here... As I said in my "pre-season picks" write-up, a team is probably going to have to get to 10-6 to make the playoffs in the NFC (& perhaps win some tiebreakers to go with that)... Atlanta still has to play New Orleans TWICE, the Bucs again, & Carolina TWICE (which is not an automatic out this year)... Add to that mix games vs. the Packers, Lions, & Houston Texans, & you can see that they can't afford to fool around with the dregs of the NFC West...
I'll take the FALCONS for (1 unit)...
New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders (4:15 EDT)
The Titans are just about as weird... CJ2K has fantasy owners panicking... I hate to say "I told you so" for the 1000th time... But... ITYS... It's not that he won't come thru and maybe win some games for you down the stretch, but you need a reliable point getter each week... He's already cost you 3 weeks of production (& we're not even at the BYE weeks yet)... Most fantasy leagues are 13 or 14 weeks long (regular season)... So you have only 9 more chances to "make it right"... What's worse is that he cost a lot of fantasy drafters a #1 or #2 pick... So their NEXT best player came in at #20 (which only affords you 'the rest' of the top 5 QB's - or an out of the top 5 WR)... Then you go BYE BYE until about pick 40...
Kenny Britt was lighting it up for the Titans until he tore an ACL last week vs. Denver... So here, Matt Hasslebeck will be without his top (really ONLY) weapon thus far on offense... They seriously need to get CJ2K going here, because although Matt Hasslebeck has Nate Washington to throw to, he'll be covered by Joe Haden (which would not have been the same if Haden had the Britt responsibility & Washington were an option)... The Titans are limited in options...
Furthermore, the Browns can get to the QB... They have 9 sacks in 3 weeks... I don't expect much from this game (in terms of interest or fireworks)... Both teams need to just come in and manage the game as best as possible... Isn't this the 3rd HOME game (out of 4) for the Browns? What's up with that? If they're going to get to 8-8 then they need to take advantage of these situations... Quietly, they're 2-1 (& if they win - could even have the LEAD in the NFC North - Home of the Steelers & Ravens)... That would be the most "under the radar" 3-1 team in the history of the NFL (considering that the Patriots have to WIN to get to 3-1 - so do the Saints)... The Packers? I'm not too worried about them FALLING to 3-1, but we'll get to the curious case of the Buffalo Bills later in the program...
Anyway, the public doesn't seem too interested in the Browns... They're on the Titans 64%...
I'll go with the BROWNS here for (0 units)...
Line: Bills by 3
OK, so I'm not going to harp on it... But if you're like one of the dimwitted ESPN or Fantasy sportswriters who are 'marveling' that the Bills are 3-0... Just go back on this blog and read my Week 1-3 game predictions on the Bills... Flawless thus far (though I can't say I had them beating the Patriots STRAIGHT UP last week)...
That's all in the past... Money (failed to win) in the past can't be recovered (the same as LOSSES - like the one I had betting with the Bengals in week 3, or betting AGAINST them in week 1 can't be recovered)...
Thus far, I'm 3-0 on Bills 'picks' & 1-2 on Bengals 'picks'... Hmmm, where does that leave me?
The issues surtrounding this game may have to do with the regular merry go round of Bengals players & their troubles with the law... Last week I should have pulled my 3 units on them off the table when the Jerome Simpson marijuana thing came up, but I didn't (half figuring that it's more NORMAL for the Bengals to be in a state of turmoil than not)...
Anyway... Perhaps I should start with the Bills instead... They torched a team (Chiefs) in week 1 that was totally unprepared... They followed that up with a comeback win over the Raiders (who also had a boatload of yards tossed on them by Mark Sanchez), & a Patriots squad who has been torched (on defense) by both Chad Henne & Philip Rivers... OK, so Rivers is not so unusual, but the point is that the Bills have yet to face a real challenge vs. their spread offense... I don't want to call the Bengals the 'cream of the crop' in that department... Leon Hall is good, but he's not named Darelle Revis... They're fairly stout against the run, but their pass rush is a little weaker than it's been the past few years... Bottom line is, I still think the Bills can move the chains here...
On defense, the Bills can be excused for giving up 4 TD's to Tom Brady (& are probably getting too much credit for the 4 interceptions as two of them were batted balls & well, Brady was UNLIKE himself forcing balls into coverage on a couple of occasions)... I'm more worried that they gave up a ton of yards to Jason Campbell... Andy Dalton might be able to find AJ Green downfield on a few occasions in this game & the Bills haven't shown that they can stop the run all that well... There is an issue of whether or not Cedric Benson will be eligible for this game, but Bernard Scott is an adequate replacement (who filled in a role quite nicely on several occasions last year)...
What I mainly don't like about this game is the line... I thinks the Bills can win the game (but I'm sometimes leery of teams that start getting into the habit of being "cardiac kids" & pulling out games as time expires)... I like them as WINNERS, but hate laying points with them... Are the Bills ready to be 'laying points' on the road?... 3 points means 6 points on a neutral field (which means they'd be favored by 9 in Orchard Park)...
Are the Bills really 9 points better than the Bengals if home fields were switched? They were giving 3.5 points to the Raiders...
I'll go with the BENGALS in this spot but can't really lay any units on it (0 units)...
That's all in the past... Money (failed to win) in the past can't be recovered (the same as LOSSES - like the one I had betting with the Bengals in week 3, or betting AGAINST them in week 1 can't be recovered)...
Thus far, I'm 3-0 on Bills 'picks' & 1-2 on Bengals 'picks'... Hmmm, where does that leave me?
The issues surtrounding this game may have to do with the regular merry go round of Bengals players & their troubles with the law... Last week I should have pulled my 3 units on them off the table when the Jerome Simpson marijuana thing came up, but I didn't (half figuring that it's more NORMAL for the Bengals to be in a state of turmoil than not)...
Anyway... Perhaps I should start with the Bills instead... They torched a team (Chiefs) in week 1 that was totally unprepared... They followed that up with a comeback win over the Raiders (who also had a boatload of yards tossed on them by Mark Sanchez), & a Patriots squad who has been torched (on defense) by both Chad Henne & Philip Rivers... OK, so Rivers is not so unusual, but the point is that the Bills have yet to face a real challenge vs. their spread offense... I don't want to call the Bengals the 'cream of the crop' in that department... Leon Hall is good, but he's not named Darelle Revis... They're fairly stout against the run, but their pass rush is a little weaker than it's been the past few years... Bottom line is, I still think the Bills can move the chains here...
On defense, the Bills can be excused for giving up 4 TD's to Tom Brady (& are probably getting too much credit for the 4 interceptions as two of them were batted balls & well, Brady was UNLIKE himself forcing balls into coverage on a couple of occasions)... I'm more worried that they gave up a ton of yards to Jason Campbell... Andy Dalton might be able to find AJ Green downfield on a few occasions in this game & the Bills haven't shown that they can stop the run all that well... There is an issue of whether or not Cedric Benson will be eligible for this game, but Bernard Scott is an adequate replacement (who filled in a role quite nicely on several occasions last year)...
What I mainly don't like about this game is the line... I thinks the Bills can win the game (but I'm sometimes leery of teams that start getting into the habit of being "cardiac kids" & pulling out games as time expires)... I like them as WINNERS, but hate laying points with them... Are the Bills ready to be 'laying points' on the road?... 3 points means 6 points on a neutral field (which means they'd be favored by 9 in Orchard Park)...
Are the Bills really 9 points better than the Bengals if home fields were switched? They were giving 3.5 points to the Raiders...
I'll go with the BENGALS in this spot but can't really lay any units on it (0 units)...
LATE GAMES
New York Football Giants at Arizona Cardinals (4:05 EDT)
Line: Giants by 1
Arizona's defensive secondary is garbage... They let a rookie (Cam Newton) throw for 400 yards on them in his first NFL start... Then they could barely contain Rex Grossman & Tavaris Jackson... Eli Manning looked horrible & out of sync in the first 6 quarters in 2011, but even with a depleted receiving corps managed to "torch" the Dream Team last weekend...
Kevin Kolb was hassled on multiple occasions last week in Seattle & things aren't bound to get any easier against the Giants defensive front... He might be able to hook up with Larry Fitgerald only if he gets some time (which might not be on many snaps)... I'm not sure if Chris Wells is healthy enough to keep the pressure honest & on its heels...
I'll go with the GIANTS for (3 units)...
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (4:05 EDT)
Line: Falcons by 4.5
I really hate this line of 4.5... Normally I'd be taking the home team in a spot like this, but Mike McCarthy actually has a pretty good record traveling to the West Coast (3-0)...
The Falcons are (1-2), and this is an afternoon game... The (2-1) Saints will have finalized their result vs. Jacksonville by the time of this kickoff (likely a WIN, to take them 3-1)... The Falcons simply cannot afford to fall to 1-3 (with the Green Bay Packers coming to visit next week)... Even though it's early, this may be their season on the line here... As I said in my "pre-season picks" write-up, a team is probably going to have to get to 10-6 to make the playoffs in the NFC (& perhaps win some tiebreakers to go with that)... Atlanta still has to play New Orleans TWICE, the Bucs again, & Carolina TWICE (which is not an automatic out this year)... Add to that mix games vs. the Packers, Lions, & Houston Texans, & you can see that they can't afford to fool around with the dregs of the NFC West...
I'll take the FALCONS for (1 unit)...
Line: Patriots by 4
Under normal circumstances this might be a "trap" game for the Patriots (who face division rival Jets) next week... But the week AFTER a Tom Brady 4 interception performance & a loss to a division team, the Raiders will have the Patriots full attention...
A sidenote of this is the fact that the Raiders just beat the hated Jets last week... So if the Patriots can hang a decisive loss on the Raiders in this spot, it will be a 'de-facto' psychological motivator going into next weeks match-up...
Darren McFadden has been all world in the first 3 weeks & there's no reason to expect that he won't have another good day here against a Patriots defense that's been yielding tons of yards in every which way...
Bill Belchick has a way of finding a way to dismantle a teams MAIN weapon (when one exists), so he may have a neutralizer... In any case, I wouldn't really want to be going against New England in this spot)...
PATRIOTS for (3 units)...
A sidenote of this is the fact that the Raiders just beat the hated Jets last week... So if the Patriots can hang a decisive loss on the Raiders in this spot, it will be a 'de-facto' psychological motivator going into next weeks match-up...
Darren McFadden has been all world in the first 3 weeks & there's no reason to expect that he won't have another good day here against a Patriots defense that's been yielding tons of yards in every which way...
Bill Belchick has a way of finding a way to dismantle a teams MAIN weapon (when one exists), so he may have a neutralizer... In any case, I wouldn't really want to be going against New England in this spot)...
PATRIOTS for (3 units)...
Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers (4:15 EDT)
Line: Packers by 13
Uh oh!... I wrote something above about former SupewrBowl match-ups & how I was taking the WINNING team... Umm... I'm just going to PRETEND that Green Bay won that Superbowl vs. John Elway (who is now the GM in Denver)...
Denver is probably gonna need him here if it expects to hang... I hate laying these many points and would usually try to find a good reason to take the DOG... Some DOGS just don't hunt though... So I'll have to go with the PACKERS for (0 units)...
Denver is probably gonna need him here if it expects to hang... I hate laying these many points and would usually try to find a good reason to take the DOG... Some DOGS just don't hunt though... So I'll have to go with the PACKERS for (0 units)...
Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (4:15 EDT - CBS)
Line: Chargers by 7
Probably the 'line' here should be in which week Tony Sparano will get axed as Miami's head coach... This is really a bad spot for both teams, but the Dolphins are somewhat more desperate...
San Diego finds itself in an unusual position of having a winning record (2-1) going in to October... On top of that, the AFC West looks like it could be theirs for the taking if they live up to their potential... The Chiefs & Broncos are dogmeat, & the Raiders (who look fairly decent), will drop to 2-2 this weekend after the Patriots go Brady to Welker all day on them...
What I'd really worry about here is that since Miami may be playing for their lives (& the life of their coach), they might just throw the kitchen sink at San Diego here... The Chargers will be playing without Antonio Gates once again and seem to perpetually be in "shoot thyself in foot" mode (Rivers has 4 TD passes & 6 interceptions to go along with countless fumbles by Mike Tolbert & failed Red Zone chances)... Do you want to lay 7 points with that?
DOLPHINS for (0 units)...
San Diego finds itself in an unusual position of having a winning record (2-1) going in to October... On top of that, the AFC West looks like it could be theirs for the taking if they live up to their potential... The Chiefs & Broncos are dogmeat, & the Raiders (who look fairly decent), will drop to 2-2 this weekend after the Patriots go Brady to Welker all day on them...
What I'd really worry about here is that since Miami may be playing for their lives (& the life of their coach), they might just throw the kitchen sink at San Diego here... The Chargers will be playing without Antonio Gates once again and seem to perpetually be in "shoot thyself in foot" mode (Rivers has 4 TD passes & 6 interceptions to go along with countless fumbles by Mike Tolbert & failed Red Zone chances)... Do you want to lay 7 points with that?
DOLPHINS for (0 units)...
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (8:20 EDT - NBC)
Line: Ravens by 3.5
Game write-up to be posted by the weekend... Likely zero unit play on Jets
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8:30 EDT - ESPN)
Line: Buccaneers by 10
Game write-up to be posted by Monday... Likely high unit play on Bucs (pending Sunday outcomes)
