2011 NFL Picks (week 1): 8-7-1
2011 NFL Picks (week 2): 6-7-1
2011 NFL (unit picks differential): 0 (injury gods - Chargers - Rams)
(all picks ATS = "against the spread")
WEEK 2 NFL PICKS
EARLY GAMES
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 EDT)
Line: Steelers by 14
Anybody who didn't look at this game and IMMEDIATELY think back to the 2006 Superbowl matchup between these two teams ought to go straight to your local jeweler and have him check your watch (because you're internal clock is most assuredly set on S-L-O-W)... Otherwise, here's a good resource for you...
What the hell is it with 'time' anyway? (Does anybody really know what time it is)?... Besides the 'Chicago' song, it reminds me of one of my favorite TWILIGHT ZONE episodes where there's an astronaut stranded on a distant planet carrying on a conversation with the computer... The astronaut asks the computer "What time is it?", and the computer responds "There is no chronology that can be calibrated"... Then the astronaut gets pissed and says "don't give me any of that mumbo jumbo... What time is it on EARTH?"... Whereby the computer responds "On Earth it is 12 noon"...
Now I know what you're all thinking... On Earth there are different TIME ZONES (according to the "down here" aspect of our relation to time)... & here's the part to where I get back to talking about football... In Pittsburgh, USA... 1:00 PM means that the internal timeclock of a Seattle Seahawk is 10:00 AM... Now, of course you may argue that the Seattle Seahawks 2011 are basically just "un-glorified" Minnesota Vikings (whose internal timeclocks still may be set to a ONE HOUR time differential between Pittsburgh & Minny)... OK... but if thats the case... Time really ISN'T your problem... The LARGER problem at hand is that you're named Tavaris Jackson & that you're facing Jerome Harrison, Troy Polamalu, James Farrior, LaMarr Woodley, Larry Foote, & co... & they all happen to be pretty pissed at the moment...
Remember the 2006 Superbowl?... Don't worry... I get paid to remember for you... Hines Ward was the MVP... So if nobody drafted him in your fantasy league because they don't like 'fancy footed' dancing queens with DUI rap sheets, then at least you ought to have considered him for an ENCORE here... Hell - he even THREW a TD pass in that game (& in a weird statistical anomaly - had EVERY passing yard thrown by Ben Rothleisberger attrbuted to him)...
Look... The Seahawks have some 'nobody' 220 pound CB trying to cover Mike Wallace... So the answer to your final question regarding this game can be found here...
STEELERS for (2 units)
Gameday Note: The PUBLIC support on this has moved to 81% STEELERS, therefore I'm dropping this pick down to (1 unit)...
What the hell is it with 'time' anyway? (Does anybody really know what time it is)?... Besides the 'Chicago' song, it reminds me of one of my favorite TWILIGHT ZONE episodes where there's an astronaut stranded on a distant planet carrying on a conversation with the computer... The astronaut asks the computer "What time is it?", and the computer responds "There is no chronology that can be calibrated"... Then the astronaut gets pissed and says "don't give me any of that mumbo jumbo... What time is it on EARTH?"... Whereby the computer responds "On Earth it is 12 noon"...
Now I know what you're all thinking... On Earth there are different TIME ZONES (according to the "down here" aspect of our relation to time)... & here's the part to where I get back to talking about football... In Pittsburgh, USA... 1:00 PM means that the internal timeclock of a Seattle Seahawk is 10:00 AM... Now, of course you may argue that the Seattle Seahawks 2011 are basically just "un-glorified" Minnesota Vikings (whose internal timeclocks still may be set to a ONE HOUR time differential between Pittsburgh & Minny)... OK... but if thats the case... Time really ISN'T your problem... The LARGER problem at hand is that you're named Tavaris Jackson & that you're facing Jerome Harrison, Troy Polamalu, James Farrior, LaMarr Woodley, Larry Foote, & co... & they all happen to be pretty pissed at the moment...
Remember the 2006 Superbowl?... Don't worry... I get paid to remember for you... Hines Ward was the MVP... So if nobody drafted him in your fantasy league because they don't like 'fancy footed' dancing queens with DUI rap sheets, then at least you ought to have considered him for an ENCORE here... Hell - he even THREW a TD pass in that game (& in a weird statistical anomaly - had EVERY passing yard thrown by Ben Rothleisberger attrbuted to him)...
Look... The Seahawks have some 'nobody' 220 pound CB trying to cover Mike Wallace... So the answer to your final question regarding this game can be found here...
STEELERS for (2 units)
Gameday Note: The PUBLIC support on this has moved to 81% STEELERS, therefore I'm dropping this pick down to (1 unit)...
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (1:00 EDT)
Line: Jets by 9
The thing that gnaws on me about the Jets is their propensity to start games slow & conservative... The Jags did a decent job at stopping CJ2K last week (but statistically that might have been due to the fact that Mike Munchak was trying to do his best Todd Haley impersonation & only let CJ2K tote the rock 9 times all game)... It was probably because CJ2K missed the whole pre-season due to a contract holdout & didn't want to risk an injury... But COME ON MAN... You pay a dude $23 million in guaranteed money and give the rock to him 9x??? That's like $159,722 PER CARRY (pro-rated over a season) even if he never makes it to the line of scrimmage...
Last week, the Jets got into a hole early vs. Dallas (meaning they had to do 'tricks' to stay in the game)... They shouldn't have the same problem with the Jags (who can't rush the passer)... On defense, I can't see Cade McNown having much success against Revis Island (which means they'll just have to hope MJD can keep them out of 3rd & longs)...
Here's the bottom line... If the Jets allow the Jags to 'hang around' they might be content to just sit around & take a 'controlled win'... OTOH... If the Jets get up by a score or two by halftime, it could turn in to a blowout (with Cade McNown taking sacks, fumbling, & tossing the ball up for grabs as the Jets D tees off on him)...
That's what you're 'hoping' for if you lay the 10 points, but as we found out in 2008, 'HOPE' isn't a reliable thing to lay money on...
I'll take the JAGUARS for (0 units)...
Gameday Note: Santonio Holmes questionable (for fantasy owners)
Last week, the Jets got into a hole early vs. Dallas (meaning they had to do 'tricks' to stay in the game)... They shouldn't have the same problem with the Jags (who can't rush the passer)... On defense, I can't see Cade McNown having much success against Revis Island (which means they'll just have to hope MJD can keep them out of 3rd & longs)...
Here's the bottom line... If the Jets allow the Jags to 'hang around' they might be content to just sit around & take a 'controlled win'... OTOH... If the Jets get up by a score or two by halftime, it could turn in to a blowout (with Cade McNown taking sacks, fumbling, & tossing the ball up for grabs as the Jets D tees off on him)...
That's what you're 'hoping' for if you lay the 10 points, but as we found out in 2008, 'HOPE' isn't a reliable thing to lay money on...
I'll take the JAGUARS for (0 units)...
Gameday Note: Santonio Holmes questionable (for fantasy owners)
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (1:00 EDT)
Line: Ravens by 6
Rashard Mendenhall totally got stuffed by the Baltimore D last week (which means that many CJ2K fantasy owners are wondering what they should do in this spot)... The bottom line is that the Steelers offensive line (last week) is in shambles & they lost LT Willie Colon for the year... Anytime you're on the phone with Flozell (Hi - Karate) Adams during the week, your running backs should fear for their lives...
Tennessee isn't much better... I think they wasted their money with CJ2K... It's the 'business' of football... Sure - He outplayed his last contract, but if you're a smart GM you just say "thank you" & move on... The Flaming Thumbtacks have to rebuild their entire franchise from the ground up... They have a new head coach, a new franchise QB, & they need the structure to go with that... When CJ2K was holding out... I'd have been on the phones shopping him around... You could have gotten some high draft picks for him & drafted some left tackle help with a solid first rounder (& saved a ton of cap money)... But that's just me... Who am I to argue with a 'genius' like Bud Adams (who was in love with Vince Young)?...
Tennessee won't have the same type of success against the Ravens that they did against the Jags... WAIT (you say)... What success? They LOST (& only scored 14 points against a pedestrian Jags team who can't even put any fans in the stands)... Kenny Britt had a spectacular day (fantasy wise) but I doubt Matt Hasslebeck wants to throw up top with pressure in his face & Ed Reed waiting to clean up any errors in judgement...
The Ravens ought to take care of business here (they often do - on the road - & they're not in a TRAP game scenario because they travel to St. Louis next week)...
I'll lay the pins with the RAVENS for (1 unit)...
Gameday Note: The PUBLIC is on the Ravens to the tune of 90%... Making this, now a (ZERO unit) pick (still siding with Ravens)...
Tennessee isn't much better... I think they wasted their money with CJ2K... It's the 'business' of football... Sure - He outplayed his last contract, but if you're a smart GM you just say "thank you" & move on... The Flaming Thumbtacks have to rebuild their entire franchise from the ground up... They have a new head coach, a new franchise QB, & they need the structure to go with that... When CJ2K was holding out... I'd have been on the phones shopping him around... You could have gotten some high draft picks for him & drafted some left tackle help with a solid first rounder (& saved a ton of cap money)... But that's just me... Who am I to argue with a 'genius' like Bud Adams (who was in love with Vince Young)?...
Tennessee won't have the same type of success against the Ravens that they did against the Jags... WAIT (you say)... What success? They LOST (& only scored 14 points against a pedestrian Jags team who can't even put any fans in the stands)... Kenny Britt had a spectacular day (fantasy wise) but I doubt Matt Hasslebeck wants to throw up top with pressure in his face & Ed Reed waiting to clean up any errors in judgement...
The Ravens ought to take care of business here (they often do - on the road - & they're not in a TRAP game scenario because they travel to St. Louis next week)...
I'll lay the pins with the RAVENS for (1 unit)...
Gameday Note: The PUBLIC is on the Ravens to the tune of 90%... Making this, now a (ZERO unit) pick (still siding with Ravens)...
Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions (1:00 EDT)
Line: Lions by 8
Nobody listened to me when I told them all pre-season that the Chiefs were G-A-R-B-A-G-E with Todd Haley in full control, Charlie Weis gone... & that they might not make it to 6 wins... After this game, they'll only have 14 more chances to win six games, & they still have to play the Steelers, Bears, Patriots, Packers, Jets, Packers, (plus the Raiders & Chargers TWICE each)...
Any questions?
Oh... & did I forget to mention that they lost their "all everything" safety Eric Berry last week (for the season) to a torn ACL???... Yes, that would be the week BEFORE they have to face Megatron & Matthew Stafford at Ford Field...
All of the 'geniuses' who moved Jamaal Charles up in their fantasy drafts (you know - those guys that I schooled last week that draft LAST YEARS stars for THIS years schedule), now have to face Ndamukong Suh this week (with their team TRAILING by two touchdowns)...
Repeat after me... Jamaal Charles got his stats last year because it was a Charlie Weis offense... Charlie Weis is now a Florida Gator... Plus - the Chiefs played with the lead most games last year (because they had a powderpuff schedule)... It's the difference between people who 'look to the future' (or others that have their noses buried in charts from the past)...
Jamaal Charles will have the pleasure of meeting (in upcoming weeks)... Richard Seymour TWICE, Clay Matthews & BJ Raji, Albert Haynesworth, Jerome Harrison & LaMarr Woodley, Julius Peppers, & well (I don't have to go all the way back to Mean Joe Greene & Bubba Smith now do I)???
What bugs me about this line is, IN FACT, 'the line'... While I have no problems siding with the Lions here, too many things have happened in the past month that have exposed both sides (both the sudden 'love affair' that the public has with the Lions & the fact that the Chiefs got humiliated vs. the Bills [a game which I gave you as an upset alert] last week)... Eric Berry going down in that game to a season ending injury didn't help matters much...
So as much as I like Detroit in this spot... I can't recommend putting any units on it...
LIONS for (0 units)...
Gameday Note: It's possible that Nate Burleson sees more targets because of a small injury to Calvin Johnson.
Any questions?
Oh... & did I forget to mention that they lost their "all everything" safety Eric Berry last week (for the season) to a torn ACL???... Yes, that would be the week BEFORE they have to face Megatron & Matthew Stafford at Ford Field...
All of the 'geniuses' who moved Jamaal Charles up in their fantasy drafts (you know - those guys that I schooled last week that draft LAST YEARS stars for THIS years schedule), now have to face Ndamukong Suh this week (with their team TRAILING by two touchdowns)...
Repeat after me... Jamaal Charles got his stats last year because it was a Charlie Weis offense... Charlie Weis is now a Florida Gator... Plus - the Chiefs played with the lead most games last year (because they had a powderpuff schedule)... It's the difference between people who 'look to the future' (or others that have their noses buried in charts from the past)...
Jamaal Charles will have the pleasure of meeting (in upcoming weeks)... Richard Seymour TWICE, Clay Matthews & BJ Raji, Albert Haynesworth, Jerome Harrison & LaMarr Woodley, Julius Peppers, & well (I don't have to go all the way back to Mean Joe Greene & Bubba Smith now do I)???
What bugs me about this line is, IN FACT, 'the line'... While I have no problems siding with the Lions here, too many things have happened in the past month that have exposed both sides (both the sudden 'love affair' that the public has with the Lions & the fact that the Chiefs got humiliated vs. the Bills [a game which I gave you as an upset alert] last week)... Eric Berry going down in that game to a season ending injury didn't help matters much...
So as much as I like Detroit in this spot... I can't recommend putting any units on it...
LIONS for (0 units)...
Gameday Note: It's possible that Nate Burleson sees more targets because of a small injury to Calvin Johnson.
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins (1:00 EDT)
Line: Redskins by 3.5
I really don't know what to say about the Redskins here... I'll start by saying this... I correctly sided with them last week (taking the points vs. the Giants where everybody & their aunty was on the G-Men)...
I was... however... a gutless wonder & didn't put any units on it... Where I was 'correct' (in my pre-game write-up) was that the Redskins & Giants (to me) looked like they were going in different directions during the development of the pre-season... That dynamic proved to be true (at least for one game)...
We'll see if it continues on or not... A lot of it will probably hinge on the "good Rex bad Rex" phenomenon... Everybody laughed at one point during the pre-season when Rex Grossman came out & (in a fairly confident tone) warned everyone that the Redskins would surprise a lot of people...
Speaking of interviews... WTF is it with NBC "Football Night in America" & their crew of smug analysts & reporters... Bob Costas is absolutely unbearable... Rodney Harrison is an opinionated jerk who doesn't know what to do with his hands (Note: yours truly is ALSO an opinionated jerk, but at least I know what to do with my hands)... Tony Dungy basically just stands there and agrees with everyone (he should run for political office)... The only good thing about that show are Al Michaels & Chris Collinsworth (& of course - Faith Hill)... I like the 'football knowledge' that Collinsworth brings, but it is often lost on the public... He'll get to talking about coverages & play development (because he's watching the game from a press box), but fails to understand that there is NOTHING of what he's saying that can fit onto a TV screen...
Anyway, what I wanted to say about NBC 'Football Night in America' crew was to talk about Alex Flanagan... Last week (before the Jets-Cowboys game), they had her back in Washington doing a post game interview with Rex Grossman... She basically came out & said (to Rex)... "How do you feel about everybody 'hating' on you so much"... WTFF??? Did some producer in the truck tell that bitch to say that??? What kind of question is that to pose to a guy on national TV (right after he won a football game - an IMPORTANT one)... If I were Rex Grossman (pardon me here to all the 'ladies' out there for this digression), I would have bent her bitch ass over right there and said... "Here I'll give you something to hate me about"... STOP (I'm being totally sarcastic there, for 'artistic' purposes... I don't condone abuse & none is intended, but sometimes you have to write things in a way that people understand in a visual way things that just fly right over the heads of people who are not paying attention to details)... Otherwise, the smug media gets away with murder EVERY SINGLE DAY with veiled innuendos (or sometimes blatant ones)... The MEDIA (even in sports) has to be 'called out' from time to time...
Oh... Then the story doesn't stop there... Effin Rodney (I don't know what to do with my hands) Harrison, back in the studio in New York, jumps right in to the nightmare & says... "I'm a Rex Grossman hater"! (& proceeds to explain WHY)... UFB!...
I hope 'sexy Rexy' lights it up here against the Cardinals (who are another West Coast team playing in the East Coast time zone)... I think the last time they came by, they lost 41-7 to the Falcons last year... Another 'sexy Rexy' story... Rex Grossman basically got his HE HATE ME mojo going on a Monday Night game (vs. Arizona) a few years back when he was playing for the Bears... That was the famous "The Bears are who we thought they were" meltdown game (Dennis Green)... I'll never forget Rex Grossman because I had him as my starting QB on a fantasy team (where I was was winning by 5 points & my opponent had NO PLAYERS LEFT)... I'd have basically won if I'd have benched Grossman, but I was thinking "Pfft... they're playing the friggin Cardinals" (this was the year after the Bears went to the Super Bowl)... LOL - Rex fumbles about 8 times & tosses about a dozen 'pick-6's' in that game and scores MINUS 6 points (& I lose my fantasy week from having it ICED & in the bag)... It was my personal "Joe Pisarcik" moment...
By the way... The guy that recovered that fumble (for a TD) was none other than Herm ("you play to win the game") Edwards... More on him later...
Anyway, so if I'M not a Rex Grossman hater... Alex Flanagan can chill out (she is kind of cute tho)...
I'll take the REDSKINS here for (3 units)... Think of it this way... The Redskins are getting 3 points because of home field (which makes it a 1 point line)... But you ought to factor in another 3 points for the 3 hour time difference on a 1PM game... Which puts the Cards as 2 point favorites on a neutral field... I'm not sure the Cards are 2 points better than the Redskins (in this moment) who have Tim Hightower anxious to tote the rock under a Shanahan system to prove to the Cardinals that they gave up on him too early...
Gameday Note: Some shady line movement... I'm knocking this down to a (1 unit) pick on the REDSKINS...
I was... however... a gutless wonder & didn't put any units on it... Where I was 'correct' (in my pre-game write-up) was that the Redskins & Giants (to me) looked like they were going in different directions during the development of the pre-season... That dynamic proved to be true (at least for one game)...
We'll see if it continues on or not... A lot of it will probably hinge on the "good Rex bad Rex" phenomenon... Everybody laughed at one point during the pre-season when Rex Grossman came out & (in a fairly confident tone) warned everyone that the Redskins would surprise a lot of people...
Speaking of interviews... WTF is it with NBC "Football Night in America" & their crew of smug analysts & reporters... Bob Costas is absolutely unbearable... Rodney Harrison is an opinionated jerk who doesn't know what to do with his hands (Note: yours truly is ALSO an opinionated jerk, but at least I know what to do with my hands)... Tony Dungy basically just stands there and agrees with everyone (he should run for political office)... The only good thing about that show are Al Michaels & Chris Collinsworth (& of course - Faith Hill)... I like the 'football knowledge' that Collinsworth brings, but it is often lost on the public... He'll get to talking about coverages & play development (because he's watching the game from a press box), but fails to understand that there is NOTHING of what he's saying that can fit onto a TV screen...
Anyway, what I wanted to say about NBC 'Football Night in America' crew was to talk about Alex Flanagan... Last week (before the Jets-Cowboys game), they had her back in Washington doing a post game interview with Rex Grossman... She basically came out & said (to Rex)... "How do you feel about everybody 'hating' on you so much"... WTFF??? Did some producer in the truck tell that bitch to say that??? What kind of question is that to pose to a guy on national TV (right after he won a football game - an IMPORTANT one)... If I were Rex Grossman (pardon me here to all the 'ladies' out there for this digression), I would have bent her bitch ass over right there and said... "Here I'll give you something to hate me about"... STOP (I'm being totally sarcastic there, for 'artistic' purposes... I don't condone abuse & none is intended, but sometimes you have to write things in a way that people understand in a visual way things that just fly right over the heads of people who are not paying attention to details)... Otherwise, the smug media gets away with murder EVERY SINGLE DAY with veiled innuendos (or sometimes blatant ones)... The MEDIA (even in sports) has to be 'called out' from time to time...
Oh... Then the story doesn't stop there... Effin Rodney (I don't know what to do with my hands) Harrison, back in the studio in New York, jumps right in to the nightmare & says... "I'm a Rex Grossman hater"! (& proceeds to explain WHY)... UFB!...
 |
| Grossman ought to break out the 'Rod Smart' jersey & flip a bird to Rodney Harrison |
I hope 'sexy Rexy' lights it up here against the Cardinals (who are another West Coast team playing in the East Coast time zone)... I think the last time they came by, they lost 41-7 to the Falcons last year... Another 'sexy Rexy' story... Rex Grossman basically got his HE HATE ME mojo going on a Monday Night game (vs. Arizona) a few years back when he was playing for the Bears... That was the famous "The Bears are who we thought they were" meltdown game (Dennis Green)... I'll never forget Rex Grossman because I had him as my starting QB on a fantasy team (where I was was winning by 5 points & my opponent had NO PLAYERS LEFT)... I'd have basically won if I'd have benched Grossman, but I was thinking "Pfft... they're playing the friggin Cardinals" (this was the year after the Bears went to the Super Bowl)... LOL - Rex fumbles about 8 times & tosses about a dozen 'pick-6's' in that game and scores MINUS 6 points (& I lose my fantasy week from having it ICED & in the bag)... It was my personal "Joe Pisarcik" moment...
By the way... The guy that recovered that fumble (for a TD) was none other than Herm ("you play to win the game") Edwards... More on him later...
Anyway, so if I'M not a Rex Grossman hater... Alex Flanagan can chill out (she is kind of cute tho)...
I'll take the REDSKINS here for (3 units)... Think of it this way... The Redskins are getting 3 points because of home field (which makes it a 1 point line)... But you ought to factor in another 3 points for the 3 hour time difference on a 1PM game... Which puts the Cards as 2 point favorites on a neutral field... I'm not sure the Cards are 2 points better than the Redskins (in this moment) who have Tim Hightower anxious to tote the rock under a Shanahan system to prove to the Cardinals that they gave up on him too early...
Gameday Note: Some shady line movement... I'm knocking this down to a (1 unit) pick on the REDSKINS...
Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (1:00 EDT)
Line: Saints by 6.5
Before you get to thinking I'm a "know it all"... I've been deemed 'Lord of Boasts' in other circles not attached to this blog... Here... I'll make another BOAST for the record... I've only had this blog active for two weeks & my stat tracker has me getting over 1,000 page hits (for my weekend picks pages such as this one)... They're not all coming from one place... I swim in different pools...
Anyway... Just so you all know that I'm NOT totally Jesus Christ on a popsicle stick... I made a prediction (at the beginning of the year), that the NFC South would be the strongest division in the NFL... Ummm... the entire NFC South is 0-1 after last weeks games... LOLZ
Alright, let's break that down a little (otherwise known as "spinning" data to make myself always look correct)... I DID give you the Chicago Bears last week as an upset special to beat the Falcons (for multiple units)... I was INCORRECT in taking the Saints & the points (vs. the Packers), but before that game I knocked the unit picks from 3 down to 1... I told you that Darren Sproles would surprise a lot of folks in that game & I correctly pointed out that James Starks would get more touches & do more damage than Ryan Grant (all of which occurred)... In the end... The Saints were stopped AT THE GOAL LINE from covering that pointspread as time expired...
You win some, you lose some...
Frankly, there's not much difference in the Saints playing the Bears or the Packers... I know what you're thinking (the Packers & Bears are totally different)... You're right, but that's not what I'm talking about... I'm talking about how the game sets up for each teams strengths & weaknesses and what personnel are available...
On offense, Drew Brees is going to have to solve Julius Peppers (just as he had to solve Clay Matthews)... Brian Urlacher is a speedier version of AJ Hawk (despite his age)... & the Saints really don't have a power running game they can rely on yet to pound the rock against a stout Bears interior line (same way they had problems with BJ Raji)...
Remember, that didn't stop the Saints from getting in to the Red Zone 'at will' vs. the Packers (largely because of Drew Brees ability to size up defenses quickly, go 'sugar huddle', and keep personnel mismatches on the field... Even though they've lost Marques Colston for a few weeks (& Lance Moore is banged up)... The Saints have many plug & play components (like Robert Meachem & Devery Henderson)...
When the Bears line up they'll be facing a Saints defense that is still without Will Smith... But the Saints aren't facing Greg Jennings & company here... They're facing Devin Hester (who still can't run routes), Roy Williams (who is fat & lazy), & Earl Bennett (who doesn't compete hard enough for balls)... If 'blitz happy' Gregg Williams can dial up some schemes to pressure Cutler (who has a tendency to hold on to the ball too long), the Saints can do more damage than what they were able to do against Aaron Rodgers...
Then again... If the Saints get too aggressive, the Bears could use Matt Forte on screen passes (blitz beaters)... In fact, this sets up as a VERY NICE spot for Matt Forte fantasy owners (& likely Darren Sproles as well)...
I've read elsewhere that the Saints might be DOWN a little after a huge emotional loss to the Packers... I understand the logic, but I'm not buying it here... Mainly because the FIRST HOME GAME ought to cure that rapidly... Plus... they've had 10 whole days to move on... I'm pretty sure the Saints are anxious to get back to football, while it might be the Bears who are more on 'breather alert' here (as they just dusted off the Falcons - & have to host division rival Green Bay next week in Soldier Field)...
The Bears are in a horrible spot here, but there are some other things going on... Remember, you're not betting the TEAM you're betting the 'line'... 6.5 points is a lot of points to be giving up if you're siding with the Saints... I know it's the Superdome (& the crowd noise & all), but the Saints, believe it or not, don't often COVER spreads in the Superdome (look it up)... Much of that is related to the echo effect of them being an 'overvalued' team after winning the Superbowl (while Atlanta, Carolina, & Tampa Bay were re-building)... Nevertheless, I can't lay these pins until the Saints finally get out of first gear (an 'echo' of having lost to Seattle last year in the playoffs & coming up short vs. Green Bay in week 1)...
I'll take the BEARS for (0 units)...
Gameday Note: BEARS are 91% supported on the Moneyline... I don't know if it's a 'hedge' against a 6 point line teaser...
Anyway... Just so you all know that I'm NOT totally Jesus Christ on a popsicle stick... I made a prediction (at the beginning of the year), that the NFC South would be the strongest division in the NFL... Ummm... the entire NFC South is 0-1 after last weeks games... LOLZ
Alright, let's break that down a little (otherwise known as "spinning" data to make myself always look correct)... I DID give you the Chicago Bears last week as an upset special to beat the Falcons (for multiple units)... I was INCORRECT in taking the Saints & the points (vs. the Packers), but before that game I knocked the unit picks from 3 down to 1... I told you that Darren Sproles would surprise a lot of folks in that game & I correctly pointed out that James Starks would get more touches & do more damage than Ryan Grant (all of which occurred)... In the end... The Saints were stopped AT THE GOAL LINE from covering that pointspread as time expired...
You win some, you lose some...
Frankly, there's not much difference in the Saints playing the Bears or the Packers... I know what you're thinking (the Packers & Bears are totally different)... You're right, but that's not what I'm talking about... I'm talking about how the game sets up for each teams strengths & weaknesses and what personnel are available...
On offense, Drew Brees is going to have to solve Julius Peppers (just as he had to solve Clay Matthews)... Brian Urlacher is a speedier version of AJ Hawk (despite his age)... & the Saints really don't have a power running game they can rely on yet to pound the rock against a stout Bears interior line (same way they had problems with BJ Raji)...
Remember, that didn't stop the Saints from getting in to the Red Zone 'at will' vs. the Packers (largely because of Drew Brees ability to size up defenses quickly, go 'sugar huddle', and keep personnel mismatches on the field... Even though they've lost Marques Colston for a few weeks (& Lance Moore is banged up)... The Saints have many plug & play components (like Robert Meachem & Devery Henderson)...
When the Bears line up they'll be facing a Saints defense that is still without Will Smith... But the Saints aren't facing Greg Jennings & company here... They're facing Devin Hester (who still can't run routes), Roy Williams (who is fat & lazy), & Earl Bennett (who doesn't compete hard enough for balls)... If 'blitz happy' Gregg Williams can dial up some schemes to pressure Cutler (who has a tendency to hold on to the ball too long), the Saints can do more damage than what they were able to do against Aaron Rodgers...
Then again... If the Saints get too aggressive, the Bears could use Matt Forte on screen passes (blitz beaters)... In fact, this sets up as a VERY NICE spot for Matt Forte fantasy owners (& likely Darren Sproles as well)...
I've read elsewhere that the Saints might be DOWN a little after a huge emotional loss to the Packers... I understand the logic, but I'm not buying it here... Mainly because the FIRST HOME GAME ought to cure that rapidly... Plus... they've had 10 whole days to move on... I'm pretty sure the Saints are anxious to get back to football, while it might be the Bears who are more on 'breather alert' here (as they just dusted off the Falcons - & have to host division rival Green Bay next week in Soldier Field)...
The Bears are in a horrible spot here, but there are some other things going on... Remember, you're not betting the TEAM you're betting the 'line'... 6.5 points is a lot of points to be giving up if you're siding with the Saints... I know it's the Superdome (& the crowd noise & all), but the Saints, believe it or not, don't often COVER spreads in the Superdome (look it up)... Much of that is related to the echo effect of them being an 'overvalued' team after winning the Superbowl (while Atlanta, Carolina, & Tampa Bay were re-building)... Nevertheless, I can't lay these pins until the Saints finally get out of first gear (an 'echo' of having lost to Seattle last year in the playoffs & coming up short vs. Green Bay in week 1)...
I'll take the BEARS for (0 units)...
Gameday Note: BEARS are 91% supported on the Moneyline... I don't know if it's a 'hedge' against a 6 point line teaser...
Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills (1:00 EDT)
Line: Bills by 4
I have to admit that I 'missed' most of the Raiders - Broncos game last Monday Night because I fell asleep after about the 1st quarter... (Some of it had to do with my celebrations I was drinking while cashing in on 5 units on the Patriots game vs. Dolphins - which we'll recall a little later)...
So I missed all of Darren McFadden's sizzling runs (&, of course, the 63 yarder that Janikowski hit)... I missed the calls for TE-BOW! TE-BOW! at the end of the game...
So what's up here? If you're one of the 'now handful' of the over 1,000 readers that I mentioned above (that has managed to stay with me this long - not like ME who couldn't stay with the Raiders-Broncos telecast)...
Anyway... if you're one of the true die hards... The light bulb will go on in your head that this is ANOTHER West Coast team playing a 1PM game on the East (in fact - there are many of them on the NFL schedule this year because that's how the division schedule wheels)...
Last year... The Raiders basically won all their games in the division, then struggled 'out of division'... Two of their wins came vs. the Chargers (basically on blocked punts) which brings up a point that I'd like to make...
Last week, in the NFL there were 3 kickoffs returned for TD's & 5 punts returned for TD's... The 8 total was a 'record' in a single week, in NFL history... There are many theories as to why that occurred, but MINE is that it is due to the lockout (combined with the new kickoff rules - at the 35 yard line)... The bottom line is that most NFL 'rookies' that make the squad (that are not 1st or 2nd rounders) make it due to excellence on special teams in pre-season...
But in the pre-season, you just had a bunch of kickers trying to make 'pseudo' 75 yard field goals (on kickoffs) & otherwise booting out 'souvenirs' to the lucky fans in the end zone seats next to the JOHN 3:16 guy with the rainbow afro...
After a few weeks, the teams basically said ***k this noise (& started running the kicks out anyway from any ball that was within the confines of the hot dog vendor)... The result is/was that you're seeing a lot of sloppy 'special teams' coverage by rookie players that couldn't practice due to the lockout & otherwise didn't have many PLAYS during the pre-season to actually run down & cover something (& instead did a 20 yard windsprint while watching the ball sail to Timbuktu)...
The Bills acquired Brad Smith from the Jets in the off season (Smith, besides being backup QB to Ryan Fitzpatrick), is one of the better kick returners in the NFL... Now, if Janikowski can kick 63 yarders off the cartpath with an 8 degree driver, I'm sure he can put it out of the end zone at Rich Stadium off a tee (at least in the month of September)... But you never know...
Anyway... I'm siding with the BILLS here (because I won with them last week - when nobody believed me)... I'll put (1 unit) on it...
Gameday Note: Janikowski received news during the week about a former assault charge.
So I missed all of Darren McFadden's sizzling runs (&, of course, the 63 yarder that Janikowski hit)... I missed the calls for TE-BOW! TE-BOW! at the end of the game...
So what's up here? If you're one of the 'now handful' of the over 1,000 readers that I mentioned above (that has managed to stay with me this long - not like ME who couldn't stay with the Raiders-Broncos telecast)...
Anyway... if you're one of the true die hards... The light bulb will go on in your head that this is ANOTHER West Coast team playing a 1PM game on the East (in fact - there are many of them on the NFL schedule this year because that's how the division schedule wheels)...
Last year... The Raiders basically won all their games in the division, then struggled 'out of division'... Two of their wins came vs. the Chargers (basically on blocked punts) which brings up a point that I'd like to make...
Last week, in the NFL there were 3 kickoffs returned for TD's & 5 punts returned for TD's... The 8 total was a 'record' in a single week, in NFL history... There are many theories as to why that occurred, but MINE is that it is due to the lockout (combined with the new kickoff rules - at the 35 yard line)... The bottom line is that most NFL 'rookies' that make the squad (that are not 1st or 2nd rounders) make it due to excellence on special teams in pre-season...
But in the pre-season, you just had a bunch of kickers trying to make 'pseudo' 75 yard field goals (on kickoffs) & otherwise booting out 'souvenirs' to the lucky fans in the end zone seats next to the JOHN 3:16 guy with the rainbow afro...
After a few weeks, the teams basically said ***k this noise (& started running the kicks out anyway from any ball that was within the confines of the hot dog vendor)... The result is/was that you're seeing a lot of sloppy 'special teams' coverage by rookie players that couldn't practice due to the lockout & otherwise didn't have many PLAYS during the pre-season to actually run down & cover something (& instead did a 20 yard windsprint while watching the ball sail to Timbuktu)...
The Bills acquired Brad Smith from the Jets in the off season (Smith, besides being backup QB to Ryan Fitzpatrick), is one of the better kick returners in the NFL... Now, if Janikowski can kick 63 yarders off the cartpath with an 8 degree driver, I'm sure he can put it out of the end zone at Rich Stadium off a tee (at least in the month of September)... But you never know...
 |
| Remember - NO ONE circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills! |
Anyway... I'm siding with the BILLS here (because I won with them last week - when nobody believed me)... I'll put (1 unit) on it...
Gameday Note: Janikowski received news during the week about a former assault charge.
Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EDT)
Line: Browns by 2
This is the YGBFK me line... I almost got into a fight with a guy this week when we were watching ESPN "Around the Horn" and we got to debating Kerry Collins... Everybody & their brother think the Colts will be 'toast' without Peyton Manning... Who knows? Maybe they're right, but I'm not buying it...
This is a team full of veterand that has missed HOW MANY post season appearances in the past decade???
Now they're GETTING almost a field goal AT HOME against the BROWNS (who are still auditioning a QB - who has no real weapons at the receiver positions & a 'factor back' who is in his 'Madden Curse' year)...
On defense, the Browns have Joe Haden (who is a poor man's Darelle Revis), but COME ON...
The entire Colts team was to blame for the loss to the Texans... Nobody showed up to play (offense/defense/special teams)... To pin it all on Kerry Collins (who has only had the playbook in his hands for 3 weeks), was not right... I'm pretty sure all they need to do now is get Rex Grossman into Indy now... Bring Alex Flanagan along to shove a microphone in his face & let the REAL HATIN' begin...
There's a pretty good precedent in TAKING teams that were demolished the week before (by 25 points or more)... This week there are several candidates... STEELERS, COLTS, (& Chiefs)... Ironically, the Steelers & Colts square off next week...
NFL players are, in fact, "pros" (unless they play for Todd Haley who would have a hard time keeping the Chiefs competitive in the Big 12 conference [even if it's only Baylor that's left])... They don't like being humiliated... Steelers 'host' the Seahawks while the Colts 'host' the Browns...
Theoretically, it shouldn't get any EASIER than that...
COLTS for 4 units... (I'll turn into a 'hater' if they dump on me & marry Alex Flanagan so she can annoy me with stupid questions all day)...
Gameday Note: This is the 'lightest' game (in terms of # of bets) on the board this afternoon...
This is a team full of veterand that has missed HOW MANY post season appearances in the past decade???
Now they're GETTING almost a field goal AT HOME against the BROWNS (who are still auditioning a QB - who has no real weapons at the receiver positions & a 'factor back' who is in his 'Madden Curse' year)...
On defense, the Browns have Joe Haden (who is a poor man's Darelle Revis), but COME ON...
The entire Colts team was to blame for the loss to the Texans... Nobody showed up to play (offense/defense/special teams)... To pin it all on Kerry Collins (who has only had the playbook in his hands for 3 weeks), was not right... I'm pretty sure all they need to do now is get Rex Grossman into Indy now... Bring Alex Flanagan along to shove a microphone in his face & let the REAL HATIN' begin...
There's a pretty good precedent in TAKING teams that were demolished the week before (by 25 points or more)... This week there are several candidates... STEELERS, COLTS, (& Chiefs)... Ironically, the Steelers & Colts square off next week...
NFL players are, in fact, "pros" (unless they play for Todd Haley who would have a hard time keeping the Chiefs competitive in the Big 12 conference [even if it's only Baylor that's left])... They don't like being humiliated... Steelers 'host' the Seahawks while the Colts 'host' the Browns...
Theoretically, it shouldn't get any EASIER than that...
COLTS for 4 units... (I'll turn into a 'hater' if they dump on me & marry Alex Flanagan so she can annoy me with stupid questions all day)...
Gameday Note: This is the 'lightest' game (in terms of # of bets) on the board this afternoon...
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (1:00 EDT)
Line: Vikings by 3
So here's the first, basically, 'push' line of the weekend (Vikings giving 3 at home = 'pick 'em on a neutral field)...
I can't say much about this game because I didn't get to see enough of these teams in action last Sunday... The box scores tell you that Minny did 'better than expected' vs. the Chargers & that the Bucs did 'worse than expected' vs. the Lions (basically - NOT covering a 1.5 line, at home, and losing by a touchdown = worse than expected)...
But I don't know... For some reason, the Bucs seem to struggle at home (& here they're on the road)... They might be trying to do too much... The Vikes did all they could possibly do in San Diego (which, these days, basically means handing the ball off to Adrian Peterson)... Percy Harvin scored one of their TD's on a kickoff return that he took to the house, (you know - the one that gave them enough points to keep them in this contest for longer than they should have lasted vs. a team that had lost their starting kicker for the season (on the same play), & that lost their best defensive run stopper (Luis Castillo), and COST me 4 units in the process...
RB Mike Tolbert had his hand in multiple scores, but the Chargers were a lot more anemic offensively than a lot of fantasy owners would have liked... Mostly because Donovan McNabb could only muster 39 passing yards the whole game... To put it into perspective, Harvins kickoff return was 2.5 times the output of McNabb (who was obviously hampered because Mike Shanahan was 'holding him back' (from all the way across the country in Washington)... A few offensive holding penalties could have easily wiped out all of McNabb's production...
Tampa Bay (LaGarrette Blount) owners couldn't have been too happy either... You're watching NFL Red Zone and seing scoreboards getting lit up all over the country & think... "Oh I have STUD in the backfield, I'm cool"... More like a 'stDud'...
I can't recommend either of these teams in this spot... I'm thinking the Vikings will eventually have to go the 'Ponder' route (to see what they have) before the season is over... While Tampa Bay can't afford to be losing games like this if they expect to sneak into the playoffs... They're a 'young' team... But they're a year OLDER than last year, so can't start piling up the excuses... It's put up or shut up...
BUCCANEERS for (0 units)
Gameday Note: The line has moved to 2.5 with most $$ on Bucs... Beware of the skinny cover...
I can't say much about this game because I didn't get to see enough of these teams in action last Sunday... The box scores tell you that Minny did 'better than expected' vs. the Chargers & that the Bucs did 'worse than expected' vs. the Lions (basically - NOT covering a 1.5 line, at home, and losing by a touchdown = worse than expected)...
But I don't know... For some reason, the Bucs seem to struggle at home (& here they're on the road)... They might be trying to do too much... The Vikes did all they could possibly do in San Diego (which, these days, basically means handing the ball off to Adrian Peterson)... Percy Harvin scored one of their TD's on a kickoff return that he took to the house, (you know - the one that gave them enough points to keep them in this contest for longer than they should have lasted vs. a team that had lost their starting kicker for the season (on the same play), & that lost their best defensive run stopper (Luis Castillo), and COST me 4 units in the process...
RB Mike Tolbert had his hand in multiple scores, but the Chargers were a lot more anemic offensively than a lot of fantasy owners would have liked... Mostly because Donovan McNabb could only muster 39 passing yards the whole game... To put it into perspective, Harvins kickoff return was 2.5 times the output of McNabb (who was obviously hampered because Mike Shanahan was 'holding him back' (from all the way across the country in Washington)... A few offensive holding penalties could have easily wiped out all of McNabb's production...
Tampa Bay (LaGarrette Blount) owners couldn't have been too happy either... You're watching NFL Red Zone and seing scoreboards getting lit up all over the country & think... "Oh I have STUD in the backfield, I'm cool"... More like a 'stDud'...
I can't recommend either of these teams in this spot... I'm thinking the Vikings will eventually have to go the 'Ponder' route (to see what they have) before the season is over... While Tampa Bay can't afford to be losing games like this if they expect to sneak into the playoffs... They're a 'young' team... But they're a year OLDER than last year, so can't start piling up the excuses... It's put up or shut up...
BUCCANEERS for (0 units)
Gameday Note: The line has moved to 2.5 with most $$ on Bucs... Beware of the skinny cover...
Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers (1:00 EDT)
Line: Packers by 10
The Packers have had 10 days to bask in the glow of beating the Saints (by a goal line stand) on opening night...
The Panthers must have 'something' positive to think about with Cam Newton lighting up the Cardinals foir 422 passing yards in his first NFL start (although I still can't figure out - for the life of me - why this dude was 'smiling' after his team lost a football game - Look at Steve Smith in the background - He scored two touchdowns and had almost 180 yards in receiving - I doubt he's about to high five those hands dangling in the tunnel)...
Life won't get EASIER for Cam Newton against Dom Capers (whose defense got to Drew Brees 3x last week)... Brees ALSO moved the ball at will vs. the Packers D, but let's not make any mistakes confusing the ability of Cam Newton to be able to walk up to a line of scrimmage and size up an opponents defensive scheme (with no huddle), the same way Drew Brees can...
Of course, you'll NEVER hear that in the media... The media is IN LOVE with all these 'wrambling wrecks' (like Mike Vick & Cam Newton)...
The NFL (right before your eyes) is being turned into a "passing" league (& the passers who will succeed throughout the seasons will be the ones who can do quick reads, & get the ball out of their hands fast)... Look at the last succession of Superbowl winners... Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Ben Rothleisberger, Eli Manning (who beat Tom Brady), Peyton Manning... Vick makes highlight films... Those 'other' guys win championships...
I gotta say... I picked up Cam Newton in my fantasy leagues this past week... I'm NOT going to start him here (or perhaps EVER)... But I had to get him OFF the waiver wire to insure that some other player wouldn't take him & use him against me in some 'meaningless' situation (like Arizona last week)... There will probably be times when Newton lights it up... But I doubt it will be against the Packers...
Nevertheless... I can't side with the Packers either (money wise) here because this could be a TRAP game before they have to face division rival Bears next week...
PANTHERS for (0 units)...
Gameday Note: The public thinks the Packers are a SURE THING (to cover).
The Panthers must have 'something' positive to think about with Cam Newton lighting up the Cardinals foir 422 passing yards in his first NFL start (although I still can't figure out - for the life of me - why this dude was 'smiling' after his team lost a football game - Look at Steve Smith in the background - He scored two touchdowns and had almost 180 yards in receiving - I doubt he's about to high five those hands dangling in the tunnel)...
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| WTF dude? You're 0-1 as a 'pro' now... |
Of course, you'll NEVER hear that in the media... The media is IN LOVE with all these 'wrambling wrecks' (like Mike Vick & Cam Newton)...
The NFL (right before your eyes) is being turned into a "passing" league (& the passers who will succeed throughout the seasons will be the ones who can do quick reads, & get the ball out of their hands fast)... Look at the last succession of Superbowl winners... Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Ben Rothleisberger, Eli Manning (who beat Tom Brady), Peyton Manning... Vick makes highlight films... Those 'other' guys win championships...
I gotta say... I picked up Cam Newton in my fantasy leagues this past week... I'm NOT going to start him here (or perhaps EVER)... But I had to get him OFF the waiver wire to insure that some other player wouldn't take him & use him against me in some 'meaningless' situation (like Arizona last week)... There will probably be times when Newton lights it up... But I doubt it will be against the Packers...
Nevertheless... I can't side with the Packers either (money wise) here because this could be a TRAP game before they have to face division rival Bears next week...
PANTHERS for (0 units)...
Gameday Note: The public thinks the Packers are a SURE THING (to cover).
LATE GAMES
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (4:05 EDT)
Line: Cowboys by 3
Despite the fact that there are several "multi-unit" plays in the Early Games... Overall - I'm kind of tepid about the aggregate of those results... Let me put it another way... At the moment, I've nominated the Steelers, Redskins, & Colts as multi-unit plays... At the moment, it's not going to hurt the Sportsbooks too bad if the Colts win & cover... Luckily for them, the public is showing a little skepticism on the Steelers (after last weeks debacle in Baltimore... But the public is heavily backing the Ravens (vs. Titans), Lions (vs. Chiefs), & Packers (vs. Panthers)... The public is also fairly well cuddled up with the Redskins (vs. Cards) & the Bucs (vs. Vikings)...
If ALL those games go the way of the public (ATS), Vegas is going to be in a big hole by 4:05... At that moment they'll be looking down the barrel of Dallas, New England, & Philadelphia (all of which are traditionally 'publicly' backed teams)...
There is no 'ace in the hole' for Monday Night either because the public tends to back the New York Giants (& the Rams are going into the Meadowlands minus a few key offensive players)...
What I'm pointing out here is that the 4PM timeslot is absolutely RIPE for some fluky action... I'd go as far as to say that a good idea may be to completely avoid the Early Games... See where the results fall, then play the afternoon games accordingly...
The 'shadiest' line of all happens to be the 49ers 'getting' 3 points against the Cowboys... I don't know what the public is thinking backing the Cowboys to the tune of 90%... They're really coming off an emotional loss (while the 49ers had a relatively easy time with Seattle & are flush with a division win under their belt)... It's not really a "look forward" situation for them because they travel to Cincinnati next week... I always believe that there's one or two WHODA THUNKIT stories that emerge in the NFL each year... WHODA THUNK IT if the 49ers go to play the Bengals next week & both teams are 2-0?... WHODA THUNK IT if the Cowboys host the Redskins next week on MNF (& it's the Redskins 2-0 while the Cowboys are 0-2)?... Stuff like that...
The Cowboys played well against a tight Jets squad last week, but folded down the stretch with some horrible errors... A big problem for them is the fact that they have little or no defensive secondary at the moment... That might not be a big problem vs. erratic Alex Smith, but if he can manage the game with Frank Gore & Vernon Davis, they might stand a chance... Dez Bryant is not 100% for this game and thus this could end up to be a low scoring affair unless the turnover or special teams bug bites either team...
I'm siding with the 49ERS here (units to be determined by the outcome of Early Games)...
Gameday Note: Will update this pick during the 1:00PM games...
If ALL those games go the way of the public (ATS), Vegas is going to be in a big hole by 4:05... At that moment they'll be looking down the barrel of Dallas, New England, & Philadelphia (all of which are traditionally 'publicly' backed teams)...
There is no 'ace in the hole' for Monday Night either because the public tends to back the New York Giants (& the Rams are going into the Meadowlands minus a few key offensive players)...
What I'm pointing out here is that the 4PM timeslot is absolutely RIPE for some fluky action... I'd go as far as to say that a good idea may be to completely avoid the Early Games... See where the results fall, then play the afternoon games accordingly...
The 'shadiest' line of all happens to be the 49ers 'getting' 3 points against the Cowboys... I don't know what the public is thinking backing the Cowboys to the tune of 90%... They're really coming off an emotional loss (while the 49ers had a relatively easy time with Seattle & are flush with a division win under their belt)... It's not really a "look forward" situation for them because they travel to Cincinnati next week... I always believe that there's one or two WHODA THUNKIT stories that emerge in the NFL each year... WHODA THUNK IT if the 49ers go to play the Bengals next week & both teams are 2-0?... WHODA THUNK IT if the Cowboys host the Redskins next week on MNF (& it's the Redskins 2-0 while the Cowboys are 0-2)?... Stuff like that...
The Cowboys played well against a tight Jets squad last week, but folded down the stretch with some horrible errors... A big problem for them is the fact that they have little or no defensive secondary at the moment... That might not be a big problem vs. erratic Alex Smith, but if he can manage the game with Frank Gore & Vernon Davis, they might stand a chance... Dez Bryant is not 100% for this game and thus this could end up to be a low scoring affair unless the turnover or special teams bug bites either team...
I'm siding with the 49ERS here (units to be determined by the outcome of Early Games)...
Gameday Note: Will update this pick during the 1:00PM games...
San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots (4:15 EDT)
Line: Patriots by 7
This is an unbelievably good spot for the Chargers getting points here... This line is skewed by at least a couple points because of Tom Brady's epic performance in South Beach last week...
When he wasn't saying *SHIT* on national television, Ron Jaworski & John Gruden kept pointing out the lack of conditioning on the part of the Dolphins secondary... No where was it more evident than in the 99 yard TD pass to Wes Welker that burned CB Benny Sapp (who was 'cut' by Miami the day after)...
What they weren't mentioning though (which was somewhat obvious to me), was that the Patriots secondary looked a little gassed as well... The difference on both sides was TEMPO... The Patriots kept running no-huddle, while the Dolphins don't have the personnel (or QB) to do that... It was only a one score game at halftime (due to the fact that the Dolphins got the opening kickoff & controlled a lot of the clock early on)... In the second half is where the Dolphins looked REALLY tired... But then when the Patriots went up by 3 scores, the Dolphins started running some faster tempo offense (& 'almost' came thru with a backdoor cover in the end)...
I say all of this because Phil Rivers should be able to do a lot more than Chad Henne did (and remember that Henne amassed over 400 yards)...
The Patriots have a streak of something like 9 games in a row that they've scored over 30 points... The all-time record is 14 by the "Greatest Show on Turf" Rams team of yesteryear... I fully expect the Patriots current streak to go that far (as Tom Brady kind of has those records in the back of his mind)...
Interestingly, the path to getting there means basically a 'track meet' (on both sides of the ball)... I really don't think the Patriots care about jumping out to a 3 score game and then just handing the ball off to BenJarvus Green Ellis... They probably would NEVER have the luxury anyway because one failed 1st down might be costly... Besides - if the Patriots are going to make a Superbowl run, they need all the practice they can in engineering game winning drives (holds) vs. playoff caliber teams...
When 'getting' more than 6 points fron a TOP 6 QB (like Rivers) you have to take the points...
I'll go with the CHARGERS for (3 units)
Gameday Note: Nothing new to add
When he wasn't saying *SHIT* on national television, Ron Jaworski & John Gruden kept pointing out the lack of conditioning on the part of the Dolphins secondary... No where was it more evident than in the 99 yard TD pass to Wes Welker that burned CB Benny Sapp (who was 'cut' by Miami the day after)...
What they weren't mentioning though (which was somewhat obvious to me), was that the Patriots secondary looked a little gassed as well... The difference on both sides was TEMPO... The Patriots kept running no-huddle, while the Dolphins don't have the personnel (or QB) to do that... It was only a one score game at halftime (due to the fact that the Dolphins got the opening kickoff & controlled a lot of the clock early on)... In the second half is where the Dolphins looked REALLY tired... But then when the Patriots went up by 3 scores, the Dolphins started running some faster tempo offense (& 'almost' came thru with a backdoor cover in the end)...
I say all of this because Phil Rivers should be able to do a lot more than Chad Henne did (and remember that Henne amassed over 400 yards)...
The Patriots have a streak of something like 9 games in a row that they've scored over 30 points... The all-time record is 14 by the "Greatest Show on Turf" Rams team of yesteryear... I fully expect the Patriots current streak to go that far (as Tom Brady kind of has those records in the back of his mind)...
Interestingly, the path to getting there means basically a 'track meet' (on both sides of the ball)... I really don't think the Patriots care about jumping out to a 3 score game and then just handing the ball off to BenJarvus Green Ellis... They probably would NEVER have the luxury anyway because one failed 1st down might be costly... Besides - if the Patriots are going to make a Superbowl run, they need all the practice they can in engineering game winning drives (holds) vs. playoff caliber teams...
When 'getting' more than 6 points fron a TOP 6 QB (like Rivers) you have to take the points...
I'll go with the CHARGERS for (3 units)
Gameday Note: Nothing new to add
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (4:15 EDT)
Line: Texans by 3
Here's another 'Captain Obvious' pick... The public is all over the Texans to the tune of 90%...
I hate this match-up (because it bodes just as poorly for the Dolphins as vs. the Patriots last week)... That one didn't go so well... Not to mention that the Dolphins spent a lot of emotional coinage in that game...
Perhaps the Texans will be a little unfocused here as well (as they have the Saints & Steelers to entertain in successive weeks)...
The Texans might be able to put more pressure on Chad Henne than the Patriots (so I wouldn't expect a 400 yard game repeat)... This ALSO may be a good spot for Ben Tate to showcase a little (assuming that it might be wise for the Texans to keep Arian Foster out of action until he is fully healthy)...
I'll take the TEXANS here... But since I don't trust them in a 'trap' game, it's (0 units) for me...
Gameday Note: The public thinks the Texans are a LOCK... The swami (Chris Berman) thinks otherwise.
I hate this match-up (because it bodes just as poorly for the Dolphins as vs. the Patriots last week)... That one didn't go so well... Not to mention that the Dolphins spent a lot of emotional coinage in that game...
Perhaps the Texans will be a little unfocused here as well (as they have the Saints & Steelers to entertain in successive weeks)...
The Texans might be able to put more pressure on Chad Henne than the Patriots (so I wouldn't expect a 400 yard game repeat)... This ALSO may be a good spot for Ben Tate to showcase a little (assuming that it might be wise for the Texans to keep Arian Foster out of action until he is fully healthy)...
I'll take the TEXANS here... But since I don't trust them in a 'trap' game, it's (0 units) for me...
Gameday Note: The public thinks the Texans are a LOCK... The swami (Chris Berman) thinks otherwise.
Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (4:15 EDT)
Line: Broncos by 4
The Broncos have to be more than a little distracted by all the Te-BOW! TE-BOW! commotion... I'll tell you something, I'm not a lover of the Cincinnati Bengals, but they managed to pull out a win last week & may still be flying under the radar... Nobody believes this team is any good, but what they do have is a fairly solid defense thru & thru (which is built to withstand the likes of Baltimore & Pittsburgh)...
The Broncos might be without the services of Knowshon Moreno & Brandon Lloyd also left the game last week dinged up... Champ Bailey might be out & the Broncos rushing D just gave up 150 yards to Darren McFadden...
Kyle Orton looks a little like he's regressed since Josh McDaniel left town...
I gotta take the BENGALS & the points here for (1 unit)... Maybe they'll get a little retribution from the 1st week matchup a few years back where there was a "fluke" tipped ball TD to Brandon Stokely that shocked the Bengals at home in Cincy in THEN head coach Josh McDaniels first game...
Gameday Note: The public has switched allegiances here and is now betting Cincy... I'm taking this down to a (ZERO unit pick)...
The Broncos might be without the services of Knowshon Moreno & Brandon Lloyd also left the game last week dinged up... Champ Bailey might be out & the Broncos rushing D just gave up 150 yards to Darren McFadden...
Kyle Orton looks a little like he's regressed since Josh McDaniel left town...
I gotta take the BENGALS & the points here for (1 unit)... Maybe they'll get a little retribution from the 1st week matchup a few years back where there was a "fluke" tipped ball TD to Brandon Stokely that shocked the Bengals at home in Cincy in THEN head coach Josh McDaniels first game...
Gameday Note: The public has switched allegiances here and is now betting Cincy... I'm taking this down to a (ZERO unit pick)...
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons (8:20 EDT)
Line: Eagles by 2.5
Game write-ups to be made before Sunday... I'm probably not even going to say much... I'm sick of talking about Michael Vick... (& you can be sure to hear 'non-stop' 24/7 commentary on it all weekend)... BARF!
Gameday Note: This will not be a high unit pick for me either way... My choice will be determined by the afternoon games...
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
St. Louis Rams at New York Football Giants (8:30 EDT)
Line: Giants by 5.5
I think I'll sport some new team graphics here for the Monday Night games... See how the peeps like it...
Sunday Afternoon Note: This will not be a high unit play for me... But I'm leaning towards the RAMS as a play at the moment...
I'm thinking about finding another team to TEASE the Rams to in this spot... With a 6.5 line, Vegas likes to tantalize the Betting New York public with the idea that all its team has to do is WIN, and it covers one half of a teaser (which is probably why the Jets are 9.0 - 9.5 vs. the Jags as well)...
My rules say:
- NEVER put a team which the public thinks is a LOCK into a tease... Which, in this case, eliminates the Texans, Cowboys, Packers, Steelers, & Ravens... Don't take crappy teams (teams who probably won't win 6 games), avoid ROAD teams when possible, or teams that turn the ball over a lot... What I just said basically eliminates the: Chiefs, Jags, Seahawks, Bengals, Panthers, Broncos...
Leaving you with Bears, Saints, Lions, Bills, Raiders, Titans, Cards, Redskins, Colts, 49ers, Dolphins, Patriots, Chargers, Eagles, Falcons as options...
- When possible... TAKE THE POINTS...
Narrowing the field down to: Bears, Raiders, Titans, Cards, Colts, 49ers, Dolphins, Chargers, Falcons *(eliminated due to timezone or shady line)...
I just don't trust the Titans or Falcons yet, So I'll say the best TEASE option would be (in order of preference):
1. 49ers (+9)
2. Chargers (+13)
3. Dolphins (+9)
4. Colts (+8)
Note that most of those come in UNDER the psychological numbers of "10" & "14"... Also... If VEGAS gets pummelled Sunday, the Giants - Rams line may move to 7.5 (meaning you'd be getting +13.5 with the Rams)...
