2011 NFL Picks (week 1): 8-7-1
2011 NFL (unit picks differential): 0 (injury gods - Chargers)
WEEK 1 NFL PICKS
Final game write-ups & fantasy football notes will be posted before Sunday kickoff
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
Thursday September 8, 8:30PM (EST)
Line: Packers by 5
TV: NBC CLEAR, NORTHEAST WIND 5-10. KICKOFF TEMP 67
TV: NBC CLEAR, NORTHEAST WIND 5-10. KICKOFF TEMP 67
It used to be that the home team (Super Bowl winner) dominated these affairs...
It seems to me that there was a lot of celebrating going on in Green Bay in the offseason, whilst the Saints were 'royally pissed' that they let Marshawn Lynch ruin their SB run last year... Last I saw of Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks first round rookie right tackle James Carpenter wasn't even practicing with the first team (which, as you can imagine is partially behind why the Saints may be hungry this year... Few people have paused to consider that the Saints actually won more regular season games than the Packers did last year, & that, if they had met in the NFC Championship, the game would have been held in the Superdome...
I made a $200 bet with a guy that drafted 'Ryan Grant' (in one of my fantasy leagues), that James Starks would get more 'carries' (aka-rushing attempts) than Grant... We'll see how that plays out, but frankly, I can't see as how the Packers (despite their awesomeness), want or need to be auditioning RB's playing the Saints (or even @ the Bears in two weeks, or @ Falcons two weeks after that)... You'd think they might want to avoid running a gauntlet like last year to make it to the post-season... Then again, maybe they thrive on adversity... Then again, that was two Aaron Rodgers concussions ago...
I gotta think the Saints are ready to roll here... I think their 'biggest' problem will be to see if Jermon Bushrod can stay in his stance while hearing Clay Matthews breathing in the background (assuming one can hear ANYTHING in a crazed Lambeau Field)... I expect a lot of 'no-huddle' action (by both teams), which means Darren Sproles could see more action than anyone expects...
I'll take the SAINTS & the points for (3 units)...
Tons of value with the Saints here... Why? You're GETTING points with Drew Brees (think about that)...
GAMEDAY UPDATE 9/8/11 - Last night I was watching Sportscenter & "The Swami" (Chris Berman) came on for his 2011 inaugural "2 minute drill" segment... Not that I sit around and wait for Berman to make his picks on every game, but in the end he was going with a 27-21 pick (in favor of the Packers), and somehow the number rang pretty clear in my head (for, it's very close to my points prediction here)...
What was interesting though is that 27-21 is a 6 point spread (which would mean a "cover" by the Packers)... I didn't like that for two main reasons... First, because the PUBLIC likes the Packers here, & Second, because I think that any time you're getting points with Drew Brees, you have to take them (he won me money in the Supewbowl vs. the Colts two years that way)...
But then I remembered a few of my own articles & words that I've linked & published this pre-season... First & foremost was the fact that the Saints will be auditioning a new kicker here (because Garrett Hartley is out with a hip flexor injury)... Second, is that I watched a lot of tape on the New Orleans - Houston preseason game... Wade Phillips is now DC down in Houston & he's experimenting with a hybrid 3-4/4-3 system... The bottom line is that on many "sets", Houston's interior lineman managed to just get their hands up in the air quickly & bat away a lot of balls that 6'0" Drew Brees could not find lanes to throw thru... I know that Dom Capers was watching that film & the Packers D has been talking about all the new plays that are in the book recently...
So I'm going to still take the SAINTS & the points here (mainly because of the Brees factor)... But I'm knocking this down to a (1 UNIT) play, as I wouldn't want a "missed FG" blow 3 units in a week where there are some pretty solid "multi-unit" plays later on...
---It seems to me that there was a lot of celebrating going on in Green Bay in the offseason, whilst the Saints were 'royally pissed' that they let Marshawn Lynch ruin their SB run last year... Last I saw of Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks first round rookie right tackle James Carpenter wasn't even practicing with the first team (which, as you can imagine is partially behind why the Saints may be hungry this year... Few people have paused to consider that the Saints actually won more regular season games than the Packers did last year, & that, if they had met in the NFC Championship, the game would have been held in the Superdome...
I made a $200 bet with a guy that drafted 'Ryan Grant' (in one of my fantasy leagues), that James Starks would get more 'carries' (aka-rushing attempts) than Grant... We'll see how that plays out, but frankly, I can't see as how the Packers (despite their awesomeness), want or need to be auditioning RB's playing the Saints (or even @ the Bears in two weeks, or @ Falcons two weeks after that)... You'd think they might want to avoid running a gauntlet like last year to make it to the post-season... Then again, maybe they thrive on adversity... Then again, that was two Aaron Rodgers concussions ago...
I gotta think the Saints are ready to roll here... I think their 'biggest' problem will be to see if Jermon Bushrod can stay in his stance while hearing Clay Matthews breathing in the background (assuming one can hear ANYTHING in a crazed Lambeau Field)... I expect a lot of 'no-huddle' action (by both teams), which means Darren Sproles could see more action than anyone expects...
Tons of value with the Saints here... Why? You're GETTING points with Drew Brees (think about that)...
GAMEDAY UPDATE 9/8/11 - Last night I was watching Sportscenter & "The Swami" (Chris Berman) came on for his 2011 inaugural "2 minute drill" segment... Not that I sit around and wait for Berman to make his picks on every game, but in the end he was going with a 27-21 pick (in favor of the Packers), and somehow the number rang pretty clear in my head (for, it's very close to my points prediction here)...
What was interesting though is that 27-21 is a 6 point spread (which would mean a "cover" by the Packers)... I didn't like that for two main reasons... First, because the PUBLIC likes the Packers here, & Second, because I think that any time you're getting points with Drew Brees, you have to take them (he won me money in the Supewbowl vs. the Colts two years that way)...
But then I remembered a few of my own articles & words that I've linked & published this pre-season... First & foremost was the fact that the Saints will be auditioning a new kicker here (because Garrett Hartley is out with a hip flexor injury)... Second, is that I watched a lot of tape on the New Orleans - Houston preseason game... Wade Phillips is now DC down in Houston & he's experimenting with a hybrid 3-4/4-3 system... The bottom line is that on many "sets", Houston's interior lineman managed to just get their hands up in the air quickly & bat away a lot of balls that 6'0" Drew Brees could not find lanes to throw thru... I know that Dom Capers was watching that film & the Packers D has been talking about all the new plays that are in the book recently...
So I'm going to still take the SAINTS & the points here (mainly because of the Brees factor)... But I'm knocking this down to a (1 UNIT) play, as I wouldn't want a "missed FG" blow 3 units in a week where there are some pretty solid "multi-unit" plays later on...
Packers 42 - Saints 34 (incorrect)
Recap notes: This game turned into everything it was billed as... Of concern going forward will be that, off this win, the Packers are sure to be somewhat overvalued in the linesmaking... For the Saints, Marques Colston will be out 4-6 weeks with a broken collarbone... Darren Sproles looks ready to take on a big role... James Starks OUGHT to be the feature back (ahead of Ryan Grant), but that's yet to be seen...
SUNDAY EARLY GAMES (Sunday 9/11 - 10 year anniversary)
Detroit Lions (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) (1:00 EST)
The Lions have looked awesome in the pre-season (which pretty much means the 'overvalued' helmet sticker is ready to be put on)... The thing is, in the pre-season, on defense, they were mainly applying 'bull rush' pressure on classic drop back passers like Tom Brady... Josh Freeman has Brady's stature, but he also has wheels... If he can extend some plays (apologies for sounding like Ron Jaworski there), he might be able to take avantage of the holes which still remain in the Lions secondary...
Tampa Bay is going to be the NEW Houston Texans for the next year or so... You know... that 'sexy' underdog pick to go all the way that falls on their ass... Same may be said about the Lions... I pretty much have BOTH of these teams in competition with each other for the final NFC wildcard spot, so this game might mean something (tiebreaker wise)... & I'm fairly confident both coaches know it...
When in doubt (& closely matched)... Take the points... & I will, with the LIONS for (0 units)...
Lions 27 - Bucs 20 (correct)
Recap notes: Calvin Johnson is a confirmed MEGATRON... I saw Matthew Stafford limping off the field after the last TD pass (so the worst fears of Matthew Stafford fantasy owners may not be fully shelved... The Lions host the bumbling Chiefs next week, while the Bucs travel to Minny to play the "39 passing yards" Donovan McNabb...
Atlanta Falcons (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0) (1:00 EST)
Line: Bears by 3
The Falcons are one of my preseason picks to be one of the most overrated teams in the NFL...
They suck on the road, & hell, I don't kno... Mike Martz kinda got something going with Jay Cutler last year (despite all the 'quitter' drama - remember that? - didn't think so... That's why they pay me the BIG BUCKS... to remember FOR you)...
The Falcons seemed to be running the ball less than usual in the pre-season (which is kind of odd when you have Michael Turner in the backfield)... Maybe they were just auditioning Julio Jones to see what type of role he's gonna play... But to me... A big factor in the Falcons taking a step back will not only be their weak defense, but the fact that the skills of Tony Gonzalez are really winding down... You have to play 11 on 11 in this league, so to keep a legacy future HOF'er on the field just because you're nice guys, doesn't help you beat the elite teams...
The unknown factor here is how many times the Falcons will be able to get to Jay Cutler (who gets sacked an average of once every 9 pass plays)...
The book on the Falcons last year was that they beat a lot of crappy opponents on the road, & won some close games at home (on last minute drives engineered by Matt Ryan)... The BEARS are not a crappy team... & so a last minute drive would have to be not only on the road, but on the quagmire of Soldier Field (which is not the same as the Georgia Dome astroturf)...
So I'd feel confident in saying... "Come get me" (if I was the Bears in this position, at this time of the season)... BEARS for (3 units)... UPSET ALERT! (Michael Vick comes back to town [Atlanta] next week - so the Falcons might be caught looking ahead)...
They suck on the road, & hell, I don't kno... Mike Martz kinda got something going with Jay Cutler last year (despite all the 'quitter' drama - remember that? - didn't think so... That's why they pay me the BIG BUCKS... to remember FOR you)...
The Falcons seemed to be running the ball less than usual in the pre-season (which is kind of odd when you have Michael Turner in the backfield)... Maybe they were just auditioning Julio Jones to see what type of role he's gonna play... But to me... A big factor in the Falcons taking a step back will not only be their weak defense, but the fact that the skills of Tony Gonzalez are really winding down... You have to play 11 on 11 in this league, so to keep a legacy future HOF'er on the field just because you're nice guys, doesn't help you beat the elite teams...
The unknown factor here is how many times the Falcons will be able to get to Jay Cutler (who gets sacked an average of once every 9 pass plays)...
The book on the Falcons last year was that they beat a lot of crappy opponents on the road, & won some close games at home (on last minute drives engineered by Matt Ryan)... The BEARS are not a crappy team... & so a last minute drive would have to be not only on the road, but on the quagmire of Soldier Field (which is not the same as the Georgia Dome astroturf)...
So I'd feel confident in saying... "Come get me" (if I was the Bears in this position, at this time of the season)... BEARS for (3 units)... UPSET ALERT! (Michael Vick comes back to town [Atlanta] next week - so the Falcons might be caught looking ahead)...
Bears 30 - Falcons 12 (correct)
Recap notes: Any questions? (about the Falcons being overrated - & sucking on the road)... I can't figure out yet whether the PUBLICS take on this game is that they should be worried about the Falcons, or, think the Bears are better than expected... All I know is that the last two games, the Falcons have been DEMOLISHED by the Packers & Bears... They lost a close one to the Saints in the Georgia Dome last year as well... Seems they struggle against good teams (& they have the Eagles & Mike Vick coming to town next week)... Get your popcorn...
Buffalo Bills (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) (1:00 EST)
Line: Chiefs by 5.5
If I said that the Falcons were "one of" my pre-season "overrated" teams... The Chiefs probably take the top spot in this category...
Charlie Weis is now a Florida GATOR, & Todd Haley is an incompetent imbecile... I truly feel sorry for all the fantasy drafters who saw Arian Foster pull up with a hammy (vs. 49ers), & Chris Johnson still in contract negotiations, & therefore moved Jamaal Charles up a few positions...
I mean, if you're 'worried' about Foster or Johnson, just pick up Ben Tate or Javon Ringer in the 14th round... Problem solved... Here, the problem isn't Jamaal Charles... Instead - it's Todd Haley (who can't be confused with Mike Shanahan when it comes to evaluating RB talent... Haley still wants to plattoon Thomas Jones... & let me tell you... not even THAT is the problem... The Chiefs had a powerpuff schedule last year... They got the lead in some games, & were able to pound a running game thus... Look at the games that the Chiefs fell behind (especially where they got pounded by the Ravens in the playoffs)... Nothing, nada, zilch...
Thomas Jones & even Dexter McCluster are more the 3rd down back types (because they're better at pass blocking &/or catching passes on 3rd & long)...
The CHIEFS might not win 7 games this year & therefore are in a horrible spot to be laying points to anyone... I'll take the BILLS here for (4 units)... UPSET ALERT
I mean, if you're 'worried' about Foster or Johnson, just pick up Ben Tate or Javon Ringer in the 14th round... Problem solved... Here, the problem isn't Jamaal Charles... Instead - it's Todd Haley (who can't be confused with Mike Shanahan when it comes to evaluating RB talent... Haley still wants to plattoon Thomas Jones... & let me tell you... not even THAT is the problem... The Chiefs had a powerpuff schedule last year... They got the lead in some games, & were able to pound a running game thus... Look at the games that the Chiefs fell behind (especially where they got pounded by the Ravens in the playoffs)... Nothing, nada, zilch...
Thomas Jones & even Dexter McCluster are more the 3rd down back types (because they're better at pass blocking &/or catching passes on 3rd & long)...
The CHIEFS might not win 7 games this year & therefore are in a horrible spot to be laying points to anyone... I'll take the BILLS here for (4 units)... UPSET ALERT
Bills 41 - Chiefs 7 (correct)
Recap notes: Any questions that Todd Haley is an idiot?... &... Jamaal Charles fantasy owners... OMG! Where are all those points you expected at home vs. the lowly Bills... It doesn't get any easier for you in week 2 (because the Chiefs have to go face Ndomakung Suh in Detroit... I'll be BUYING Jamaal Charles from you going in to your BYE week (for, like, Jerome Harrison or someone)...
Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0) (1:00 EST)
Line: Texans by 8.5
I was getting ready (pre-preseason) to put the TEXANS into the overrated category as well... That was before seeing Peyton Manning miss the entire pre-season, & watching the TEXANS handily & efficiently cut thru their pre-season schedule...
Even if Arian Foster is nursing a sore hammy... It looks like Ben Tate can handle the same load... Andre Johnson (despite a broken finger), looks great, & even Owen Daniels is healthy (for now)...
The biggest improvement for Houston seems to be the new defensive system that Wade Phillips put in... That was their big problem last year & they've addressed it here... They're catching the Colts at the perfect time (with Kerry Collins looking to be the starting QB)... The TEXANS have to hang a win on them right here... The oddsmakers have bumped this line up to (8.5) and the public is STILL all over the Texans...
Which is EXACTLY why I'm taking the COLTS & the points for (3 units)...
(8.5) points??? Are you kidding me... Forget about Peyton Manning for a minute... These are 'division rivals'... Kerry Collins played with the Tennessee Titans for the past few years in the same division... So you're going to tell me that the Titans would be 8.5 point dogs going in to Houston??? With Kerry Collins having a better receiving corps in Indy?
I think anyone laying points here is nuts...
Even if Arian Foster is nursing a sore hammy... It looks like Ben Tate can handle the same load... Andre Johnson (despite a broken finger), looks great, & even Owen Daniels is healthy (for now)...
The biggest improvement for Houston seems to be the new defensive system that Wade Phillips put in... That was their big problem last year & they've addressed it here... They're catching the Colts at the perfect time (with Kerry Collins looking to be the starting QB)... The TEXANS have to hang a win on them right here... The oddsmakers have bumped this line up to (8.5) and the public is STILL all over the Texans...
Which is EXACTLY why I'm taking the COLTS & the points for (3 units)...
(8.5) points??? Are you kidding me... Forget about Peyton Manning for a minute... These are 'division rivals'... Kerry Collins played with the Tennessee Titans for the past few years in the same division... So you're going to tell me that the Titans would be 8.5 point dogs going in to Houston??? With Kerry Collins having a better receiving corps in Indy?
I think anyone laying points here is nuts...
Texans 34 - Colts 7 (incorrect)
Recap notes: OK so I was wrong here... But it sure wasn't totally Kerry Collins fault... The Colts stunk it up in every phase of the game (& the blame should rest squarely on coach Jim Caldwell and his lack of preparation)... As I said in my "pre-season" picks, the Colts NEVER try too hard to win games in the pre-season... That's because they have Peyton Manning (so they want to play their careds close to the vest)... They don't have that luxury now, & if they want to avoid digging a hole here, they better wake up & show up to practice...
Philadelphia 'Dream' Teamers (0-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-0) (1:00 EST)
Line: Dream Teamers by 5
So of course the big news is that #7 (Eagles QB) got his dollars up & suckered the Eagles into a $100 million contract (which he'll never see), but $40 million is 'guaranteed' & supposedly isn't enough to pay all his creditors out of bankruptcy in the aftermath from all the 'dog killing' escapades...
You know... All I have to say is this... NEXT WEEK... The Eagles have to travel to Atlanta to play the Falcons... Falcons owner (Arthur Blank - all around decent guy) had to make the difficult decision to release Vick from the 'original' multi-million $$ contract on personal conduct clause (which any reasonable person, not named Michael Vick, might think was appropriate given the hideous nature of a dog fighting charge which landed you 18 months in Leavenworth)...
Last year... The Falcons traveled to play the Eagles in Philly... Vick was given special permission to show up LATE to the stadium so as to avoid encountering Blank face to face in the team tunnels (Vick was not playing due to injury)...
So WTF??? Is Vick going to SKIP Atlanta altogether??? Is "Mr. reformed dog killer" gonna just say that FACING the city of Atlanta & owner of that franchize - who Vick caused terrible harm because of his selfish behavior - is BENEATH him in this reformed & glorified position)...?
Yeah... Bleep Blank... Bleep Atlanta... I did my time... I got my dollars back up (thanks to ONE game against a crappy ass Redskins team on MNF)... Now bleep y'all... I'm not sorry for nothin!...
Anyway... I'm just saying that THAT particular drama is scheduled for NEXT week... It's an appointment with destiny that can't be postponed or altered... How will that impact THIS WEEK??? I have no idea... But I'd think about it before laying down any money...
My guess is that Vick will probably "light it up" here... Why? Simple... Because the guy I'm playing in one of my big $$ fantasy leagues is starting VICK at QB (& the Falcons defense - vs. Bears above)... So just so as to be proved that I don't know anything about what I'm talking about... I'll get crushed by both... So I'm not going to compound the pain by betting money here...
But I should take the RAMS for multiple units...
You know... All I have to say is this... NEXT WEEK... The Eagles have to travel to Atlanta to play the Falcons... Falcons owner (Arthur Blank - all around decent guy) had to make the difficult decision to release Vick from the 'original' multi-million $$ contract on personal conduct clause (which any reasonable person, not named Michael Vick, might think was appropriate given the hideous nature of a dog fighting charge which landed you 18 months in Leavenworth)...
Last year... The Falcons traveled to play the Eagles in Philly... Vick was given special permission to show up LATE to the stadium so as to avoid encountering Blank face to face in the team tunnels (Vick was not playing due to injury)...
 |
| How dare Arthur Blank NOT want to pay the rest of Michael Vicks contract with the Falcons AFTER Vick was sentenced to 18 months in Ft. Leavenworth on felony Federal charges for operating a dogfighting ring which killed & tortured dogs! |
So WTF??? Is Vick going to SKIP Atlanta altogether??? Is "Mr. reformed dog killer" gonna just say that FACING the city of Atlanta & owner of that franchize - who Vick caused terrible harm because of his selfish behavior - is BENEATH him in this reformed & glorified position)...?
Yeah... Bleep Blank... Bleep Atlanta... I did my time... I got my dollars back up (thanks to ONE game against a crappy ass Redskins team on MNF)... Now bleep y'all... I'm not sorry for nothin!...
Anyway... I'm just saying that THAT particular drama is scheduled for NEXT week... It's an appointment with destiny that can't be postponed or altered... How will that impact THIS WEEK??? I have no idea... But I'd think about it before laying down any money...
My guess is that Vick will probably "light it up" here... Why? Simple... Because the guy I'm playing in one of my big $$ fantasy leagues is starting VICK at QB (& the Falcons defense - vs. Bears above)... So just so as to be proved that I don't know anything about what I'm talking about... I'll get crushed by both... So I'm not going to compound the pain by betting money here...
But I should take the RAMS for multiple units...
Eagles 31 - Rams 13 (incorrect)
Recap notes: This was more a blow to the Rams than on the scoreboard... They lost Steven Jackson to a quad injury in the first quarter... Then they lost Danny Amendola to a dislocated elbow (who might be out for the season)... & finally Sam Bradford did some nerve damage to a finger on his throwing hand after hitting a helmet... That's 3 of the biggest weapons this team has on offense... (well basically - IT IS their offense)... The defense is going to step up BIG TIME traveling to the meadowlands to play the Giants next week (who are dealing with their own injury problems)...
Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-0) (1:00 EST)
Line: Ravens by 3
You know... In the last, like, decade... the only SB 'winners' that failed to make the playoffs the next year were the Steelers... So now what happens after they LOSE a SB?... I don't want to get too giddy here... The Ravens/Steelers gigs are always a FG... But I'll take the Ravens here... 9/11... If it weren't for the Washington/New York matchups, this would be a FEATURE game...
Better... Because the Ravens always CHOKE in feature games... Joe Flacco has never beaten Ben Rothleisberger in a head to head matchup (0-6)... The Ravens have to get over that hurdle before I'd advise laying any points with them here...
RAVENS for (0 units)...
Ravens 35 - Steelers 7 (correct)
Recap notes: File this one under the "it was bound to happen sooner or later" category... The biggest problem for the Steelers here is that they finally let the "Joe Flacco can't beat Ben Rothleisberger" genie out of the bottle... They shouldn't have done that... I think the Steelers will regroup, but this game has huge implications... Assuming both teams make it through the rest of the season with identical records, it will be almost IMPOSSIBLE for the Steelers to win the division with the Ravens holding this last tiebreak... Division record is more important (the games each team will play vs. the Browns & Bengals)... But when the Steelers meet the Ravens again, they'd have a 28 point defecit to overcome... IOW - This game was likely to have made the Ravens the #2 seed in the playoffs (which gives them a home game)...
Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0) (1:00 EST)
Line: Browns by 6.5
Oh yeah... With all the 9/11 feature matchups, we're gonna get excited about an in-state Ohio rivalry... Go fish!... Jeez, I don't even know who to take... New coach in Cleveland vs. Marvin Lewis?... I'll get back to ya...
I think Mike Brown (I only have 2 winning seasons in my 20 years as GM, but KNOW what I'm doing by not trading Carson Palmer) ought to start at QB in Cincy... #85 & TO are outta there... Cedric Benson did a 5 day jail turnaround... He is in the final year of a contract, so I might expect him to play hard this year (though the Browns started to stuff the run pretty well towards the end of last season)...
If Colt McCoy can show enough 'flashes' of talent that he did in the pre-season & otherwise manage this game "not to lose", they ought to come out ahead of a team starting a rookie QB (Andy Dalton)...
I'll side with the BENGALS against the pointspread (just because a 6 win team should not be laying that many pins vs. a division rival [or ANYONE, for that matter])...
I think Mike Brown (I only have 2 winning seasons in my 20 years as GM, but KNOW what I'm doing by not trading Carson Palmer) ought to start at QB in Cincy... #85 & TO are outta there... Cedric Benson did a 5 day jail turnaround... He is in the final year of a contract, so I might expect him to play hard this year (though the Browns started to stuff the run pretty well towards the end of last season)...
If Colt McCoy can show enough 'flashes' of talent that he did in the pre-season & otherwise manage this game "not to lose", they ought to come out ahead of a team starting a rookie QB (Andy Dalton)...
I'll side with the BENGALS against the pointspread (just because a 6 win team should not be laying that many pins vs. a division rival [or ANYONE, for that matter])...
Bengals 27 - Browns 17 (correct)
Recap notes: I don't know what Browns showed up here but they were awful... I will say though that the Bengals, despite all their problems, & despite the fact that they probably won't win a lot of games, can catch a lot of teams sleeping... Why? Because they do have an OK running game & they defend the run rather well... It means they can "hang around" in games... You have to deliver a knockout blow EARLY to them & keep the pedal down... Arguably, I say, Gradkowski gives them a better chance at QB than Andy Dalton (who left the game with an injury)...
Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks (0-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) (1:00 EST)
Line: Jaguars by 3
If there was a way that BOTH these teams could lose, it would be easier on everyone... This game portends nothing but pain... Pain from MOJO & Chris Johnson fantasy drafters, & pain that whatever happens, either side will be looking UP at either Houston or Indy after week 1 (both in the division & wild card)... I've got advice for all Tenn & Jax residents... Move to NO... or Green Bay... or Baltimore... or Boston (if you want to be happy for the next 6 months)...
Ever heard of Deji Karim or Javon Ringer... Get used to BOTH of those names because if you drafted MOJO or Chris Johnson, as soon as they're sidelined with an injury, you'll be turning to those guys...
Jacksonville surprised me last year... I expected them to be MUCH worse, and they actually held in rather well (thanks, in part to some MIRACLE endings - like the one vs. Houston)... But I suspect that this may be Jack del Rio's last season on the sidelines in Jacksonville... If that's the case, you're looking at a situation like (John Fox in Carolina last year, or even Mike Holmgren in Seattle a few years back)... Teams just lay down & quit... I don't want to be laying points with a team like that...
So I'd side with the TITANS here for (0 units)...
Jaguars 16 - Titans 14 (correct)
Recap notes: As I said... YAWN (unless you happened to be a Kenny Britt fantasy owner)... Stand up and raise your hand if you had Kenny Britt high on your fantasy draft list... I didn't think so... OK smartypants... Now tell me, honestly, when you DID draft him you were probably saying... "Well - he's just best on board & he's falling to me"... Good news is, you might be able to sell or trade high...
LATE GAMES
Line: 49ers by 5.5
Seattle has been busy in dealing Matt Hasslebeck to the Flaming Thumbtacks, & basically loading up on all the Minny rejects (Tavaris Jackson, Sidey Rice & OC)...
I've got news for you 12th man fans... Sidney Rice 'worked' because of Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor, & Visanthe Shiancoe... CV is NOT predicting a miracle surprise playoff run (aka Marshawn Lynch) this year...
49ers I can't say much for either... Nice to see Jim Harbaugh in town, but I think it's going to take some time... Crabtree is already on the PUP with his foot again (proving the 49ers, again, to be an INCOMPETENT drafting franchise)... And what's the deal with Alex Smith... He's like Rasputin... He reminds me of the Kyle Boller years in Baltimore... It took the Ravens years of not doing anything before they finally put an end to that misery... It's just not sexy anymore to be taking the 49ers (but they may win here just because Seattle will regress & basically blow goats this year)...
The thing is... All that 'dimestore' analysis is pretty much the public's take on the situation... They think both teams are going to suck, but they think the Seahawks are going to SUCK MORE... That's fine... But then WHY is this line 5.5... It should be something more like 3.5 or 4...
Ask yourself something... If the Minnesota Vikings came in to San Fran last year (with Tavaris Jackson as QB), would the Vikings be almost 6 point dogs?... You basically have the same scheme here (sans Adrian Peterson)...
Anyway... I think I'll be taking the SEAHAWKS in this spot for (2 units)...
I've got news for you 12th man fans... Sidney Rice 'worked' because of Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor, & Visanthe Shiancoe... CV is NOT predicting a miracle surprise playoff run (aka Marshawn Lynch) this year...
49ers I can't say much for either... Nice to see Jim Harbaugh in town, but I think it's going to take some time... Crabtree is already on the PUP with his foot again (proving the 49ers, again, to be an INCOMPETENT drafting franchise)... And what's the deal with Alex Smith... He's like Rasputin... He reminds me of the Kyle Boller years in Baltimore... It took the Ravens years of not doing anything before they finally put an end to that misery... It's just not sexy anymore to be taking the 49ers (but they may win here just because Seattle will regress & basically blow goats this year)...
The thing is... All that 'dimestore' analysis is pretty much the public's take on the situation... They think both teams are going to suck, but they think the Seahawks are going to SUCK MORE... That's fine... But then WHY is this line 5.5... It should be something more like 3.5 or 4...
Ask yourself something... If the Minnesota Vikings came in to San Fran last year (with Tavaris Jackson as QB), would the Vikings be almost 6 point dogs?... You basically have the same scheme here (sans Adrian Peterson)...
Anyway... I think I'll be taking the SEAHAWKS in this spot for (2 units)...
49ers 33 - Seahawks 17 (incorrect)
Recap notes: I can't really tell yet whether the 49ers are this good or not... Nope... It's just that the Seahawks predictably suck (but probably suck worse than expected)...
Line: Cardinals by 7
Arizona is really getting it's s*** back together doing what they need to do (unless Kevin Kolb turns out to be a flop [which this author thinks WILL NOT be the case - in fact - I'd LOVE to see a rematch of the 2008/9 NFC Championship Eagles-Cards, in the playoffs this year, NFC Championship, won't happen])... That would just be so Kolb could PROVE to Andy Reid that he jumped the shark by getting on the dog killer QB wagon... Things can't get EASIER for Kolb here... He gets to BEAT UP on ANOTHER 'overrated' QB (Cam Newton)...
Not so fast!... I'm not really saying Cam Newton is 'overrated'... He's talented, but let me repeat this for the 100th time... The NFL IS A DROPBACK QB LEAGUE... See peeps, here's the difference... In the NCAA, if you're a QB with legs & a few moves, you can make a lot of highlight reels while making a lot of defensive players who run 4.6 40-yard dashes look silly... In the NFL, all the fastest and most talented guys are defensive backs that run 4.4's with closing speed & ball hawking skills...
You're going to have a short life in the NFL as a QB if you have to use your legs & don't know how to get the ball out of your hands (to your OWN teammates)...
Not so fast!... I'm not really saying Cam Newton is 'overrated'... He's talented, but let me repeat this for the 100th time... The NFL IS A DROPBACK QB LEAGUE... See peeps, here's the difference... In the NCAA, if you're a QB with legs & a few moves, you can make a lot of highlight reels while making a lot of defensive players who run 4.6 40-yard dashes look silly... In the NFL, all the fastest and most talented guys are defensive backs that run 4.4's with closing speed & ball hawking skills...
You're going to have a short life in the NFL as a QB if you have to use your legs & don't know how to get the ball out of your hands (to your OWN teammates)...
Nevertheless, I can't be laying 7 points with the Cardinals to anyone here... Especially a young dynamic player like Cam Newton that could backdoor cover your spread by running around like Steamin Willie Beamon in the 4th quarter...
PANTHERS for (0 units)...
PANTHERS for (0 units)...
Cardinals 28 - Panthers 21 (push)
Recap notes: Well I certainly wasn't wrong about the ability of Cam Newton to run around like 'Steamin' Willie Beamon... I can't wait for all the kudos to start coming from all the parrot sportswriters this week about how Newton is the best thing since... Well, since Michael Vick... Can the Cardinals really be that bad on defense (in giving up huge plays)?... Cam Newton was smiling & high fiving in the tunnel after the game... DUDE... Wake-up call... YOUR TEAM LOST!!! & they have the Green Bay Packers coming to town next week... Reality check... You're not at Auburn anymore...
Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at San Diego Chargers (0-0) (4:15 EST)
Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at San Diego Chargers (0-0) (4:15 EST)
Line: Chargers by 8.5
New York Football Giants (0-0) at Washington Redskins (0-0 (4:15 EST)
All I can say is, NOT having to worry about the Brett Favre drama ought to be good for at least a touchdown here (whether that's enough to still cover is up for debate)...
Remember, the Chargers have a propensity to start SLOW... I keep thinking it's going to be different, but it never is... I don't have the Chargers as a "lock" to win the division (while Minny could place anywhere form 1st to last in the NFC North - I know... that was a 'joke')... The Chargers dealt Sproles to the Saints (replacing Reggie Bush), which probably means they want to get Ryan Matthews going (but then Mike Tolbert is a both a better 3rd down blocker & pass catcher) so I'd expect the Chargers weapons to be numerous... I think Vincent Jackson is going to have a monster year (as he's playing out a contract)...
Minny has had a pretty quiet training camp & pre-season considering Donovan McNabb is in town to start at QB & they have Adrian Peterson... But if you ask me, the dynamics are all different... I think the Chargers want to get back to the playoffs (after having missed out last year by losing stupid games like this one - & twice to the Raiders on blocked punts)...
I like the CHARGERS in this spot for (4 units)...
Remember, the Chargers have a propensity to start SLOW... I keep thinking it's going to be different, but it never is... I don't have the Chargers as a "lock" to win the division (while Minny could place anywhere form 1st to last in the NFC North - I know... that was a 'joke')... The Chargers dealt Sproles to the Saints (replacing Reggie Bush), which probably means they want to get Ryan Matthews going (but then Mike Tolbert is a both a better 3rd down blocker & pass catcher) so I'd expect the Chargers weapons to be numerous... I think Vincent Jackson is going to have a monster year (as he's playing out a contract)...
Minny has had a pretty quiet training camp & pre-season considering Donovan McNabb is in town to start at QB & they have Adrian Peterson... But if you ask me, the dynamics are all different... I think the Chargers want to get back to the playoffs (after having missed out last year by losing stupid games like this one - & twice to the Raiders on blocked punts)...
I like the CHARGERS in this spot for (4 units)...
Chargers 24 - Vikings 17 (incorrect)
Recap notes: I'm pissed about losing 4 units here, but the Chargers suffered some big time injuries during the game... Kicker Nate Kaeding (on the opening kickoff - they had to kick FG's with punter Mike Scifres the whole game)... Then DE Luis Castillo was probably lost for the season with a knee injury... They lost Tike Tolbert later on to an undisclosed injury... Bottom line was, with the Viking scoring once on a kickoff return for a TD... Having Adrian Peterson to chew up yards against a depleted defensive line, plus the 'pressing' going on on offense without your kicker (& 2 interceptions), the Chargers did remarkably well to come back & almost cover... I'll chalk this one up to the football gods...
Line: Giants by 3
Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0) (8:20 EST)
If the NFL wants to make special schedules on the 10 year anniversary of 9/11 & schedule NEW YORK vs. WASHINGTON... Then I'm going to go "retro" helmets here...
Is it just me, or did both of these teams seem to go in totally opposite directions during pre-season? Before pre-season, I thought the Giants were probably a 10-6 team & that the Redskins might win the "Andrew Luck" lottery by the end of the year...
But with the Giants losing key personnel on defense, & the Redskins (no longer distracted by Donovan McNabb or Albert Haynesworth) got down to business auditioning Rex Grossman & John Beck to lead an offense where they can "plug & play" a rejuvenated Tim Hightower into the classic Shanahan zone blocking scheme...
Don't get me wrong... The Redskins are probably a 5 win team (at best), but it looks more & more at at least they want to COMPETE... Eli Manning tends to do stupid things (like throw idiot picks in the two minute drills before halftime)... I wouldn't be surprised to see DeAngelo Hall be opportunistic & step in & rob play that might change the dynamics of this game keeping the Redskins in play...
I'd be taking the REDSKINS here, but I'm not going to put any units on it...
Is it just me, or did both of these teams seem to go in totally opposite directions during pre-season? Before pre-season, I thought the Giants were probably a 10-6 team & that the Redskins might win the "Andrew Luck" lottery by the end of the year...
But with the Giants losing key personnel on defense, & the Redskins (no longer distracted by Donovan McNabb or Albert Haynesworth) got down to business auditioning Rex Grossman & John Beck to lead an offense where they can "plug & play" a rejuvenated Tim Hightower into the classic Shanahan zone blocking scheme...
Don't get me wrong... The Redskins are probably a 5 win team (at best), but it looks more & more at at least they want to COMPETE... Eli Manning tends to do stupid things (like throw idiot picks in the two minute drills before halftime)... I wouldn't be surprised to see DeAngelo Hall be opportunistic & step in & rob play that might change the dynamics of this game keeping the Redskins in play...
I'd be taking the REDSKINS here, but I'm not going to put any units on it...
Note: Much fanfare here, as the NFL (on the 10 year anniversary of the 9/11 attacks on the WTC & Pentagon, schedules a game between NY & WASH... (like I REALLY feel sorry for all the Wall St. bankers, K - street lobbyists, politicians, Pentagon contractors & brass, & all their hookers & coke suppliers)... But I suppose they all have to create something to cry about for themselves...
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALLRedskins 28 - Giants 14 (correct)
Recap notes: I did say the Redskins would be scrappy... It seems like they finally enjoy playing football again... Same can't be said for the Giants... They look horrible (which fits my pre-game analysis that these teams seem to be going in different directions)... The wins & losses will come as they may...
Line: J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets by 4
Well... SOMEBODY in the Big Apple had to host a football game... IN PRIME TIME... On the 10 year anniversary of 9/11... As fate would have it... How could it NOT BE...
drumroll...
the JETS!
I know... I know... people... None of you really considered that until just now... That's why I get PAID to think for you all... Oh wait... I don't get paid anything for this... I just tell you what's going to happen (months before it does)... Just so you can IGNORE it (& laugh at it)... Then get PISSED at me for reminding you of my call after it happens...
But listen... If I'm going to follow up on the RETRO Helmet theme... Remember that the JETS used to be the New York TITANS... While the Tennessee TITANS (now 'Flaming Thumbtacks') used to be the Houston OILERS... (& now in Houston is a team called the TEXANS)... Now if you're following along, there used to be a team named the 'Dallas TEXANS' (who moved to Kansas City), & since it would be ridiculous to call them the TEXANS anymore (changed to the CHIEFS)... So now the Dallas team is called the COWBOYS (who are playing the JETS here)... Clear?
 |
| 1960 NY TITANS now NY JETS |
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| 2012 Tennessee TITANS formerly HOUSTON OILERS |
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| 1960 Houston OILERS |
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| 2012 Houston TEXANS |
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| former Dallas TEXANS now KC CHIEFS |
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| 1960 Cowboys |
Now that THAT's all settled... The line here is probably right (my prediction)...
This game 'almost' falls into the category of (like Drew Brees above)... When you have an elite QB & you're 'giving' him points (Tony Romo in this case & in this case, the points are '4')...
I say 'almost' because some may not consider Tony Romo an elite QB... Personally, I think he's overrated & has been fortunate enough to have been surrounded with talent, but is more or less, an UNDERACHIEVER...
OTOH, he can put up some stats on occasion, but he hasn't been playing in a division against a team that has a Darelle Revis shutting down half the field (that's NOT the case anymore - as the Eagles signed the Revis clone Nnamdi Asamugha in the offseason)... Actually, Tony Romo has not been playing ANY football for over 9 months due to a season ending injury last year...
I can't help but think that there may bee a few cobwebs for Romo... & even though this is too hefty a pointspread to be giving away... I'll side with the JETS here (for 1 unit), as they seem to have the knack of getting UP for feature games...
This game 'almost' falls into the category of (like Drew Brees above)... When you have an elite QB & you're 'giving' him points (Tony Romo in this case & in this case, the points are '4')...
I say 'almost' because some may not consider Tony Romo an elite QB... Personally, I think he's overrated & has been fortunate enough to have been surrounded with talent, but is more or less, an UNDERACHIEVER...
OTOH, he can put up some stats on occasion, but he hasn't been playing in a division against a team that has a Darelle Revis shutting down half the field (that's NOT the case anymore - as the Eagles signed the Revis clone Nnamdi Asamugha in the offseason)... Actually, Tony Romo has not been playing ANY football for over 9 months due to a season ending injury last year...
I can't help but think that there may bee a few cobwebs for Romo... & even though this is too hefty a pointspread to be giving away... I'll side with the JETS here (for 1 unit), as they seem to have the knack of getting UP for feature games...
Jets 27 - Cowboys 24 (incorrect)
Recap notes: After the debacle by the Cowboys (vs. Redskins) last year on opening day Sunday Night Football... Remind me to NEVER take the Cowboys in those situations... But they DID cover here (so I'm not totally knocking them)... Dez Bryant is a beast... Tony Romo is overrated, & the Dallas D looked impressive... Despite the heartbreaking loss here, watch out for Dallas... They were my 'pre-season' pick to win the NFC East (BEFORE all the pieces got assembled in Philadelphia - then I dropped them)... I think this team will get better as each game passes in the season...
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL (doubleheader)
Line: Patriots by 7.5
Patriots 38 - Dolphins 24 (correct)
Oakland Raiders (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0) (10:15 EST)
Patriots 38 - Dolphins 24 (correct)
Before I get to Monday Night games... I like to take a 'peek back' at how the PUBLIC did vs. the SPORTSBOOKS the day before... The public was heavily loaded on:
Eagles, 49ers, Lions
While VEGAS 'toasted' the PUBLICLY shunned:
Ravens, Bears, Bills, Bengals, Jags, Redskins, & Vikes
The Carolina/Cards game was a PUSH (while the other games, Vegas collected 'juice" on)...
All in all... VEGAS had a great day emptying the publics pockets... I kind of figured that would happen (which is why I put ZERO unit picks on a lot of games & tried to pick my slots)...
What I REALLY want to say is that I think VEGAS has been 'fearing' this Miami - New England matchup all week... It's been a 7 to 7.5 line all week (and seriously, it could be a 10+ line)... Everyone & their brother is on the Patriots... WORSE (for Vegas), the Patriots will probably cover (& they'll probably cover big)...
Nothing is worse for VEGAS than to have a public with POCKETS FULL of cash from the day before & have to face a line like this... So now, since the public might be a little 'tentative' (& light) here (due to their GENIUS in taking the Chiefs & Falcons - you know, those CAN'T MISS playoff teams from a year ago)... The damage won't be so bad here... People won't change their minds & take Miami in this spot, they'll just bet LESS than they would have...
I still expect to see some line movement here (maybe up to 9 points - which would BUST some exotics if the Patriots happen to win by a FG)... But I don't think Vegas really cares...
Therefore... I'll take the PATRIOTS for (5 units here)...
Eagles, 49ers, Lions
While VEGAS 'toasted' the PUBLICLY shunned:
Ravens, Bears, Bills, Bengals, Jags, Redskins, & Vikes
The Carolina/Cards game was a PUSH (while the other games, Vegas collected 'juice" on)...
All in all... VEGAS had a great day emptying the publics pockets... I kind of figured that would happen (which is why I put ZERO unit picks on a lot of games & tried to pick my slots)...
What I REALLY want to say is that I think VEGAS has been 'fearing' this Miami - New England matchup all week... It's been a 7 to 7.5 line all week (and seriously, it could be a 10+ line)... Everyone & their brother is on the Patriots... WORSE (for Vegas), the Patriots will probably cover (& they'll probably cover big)...
Nothing is worse for VEGAS than to have a public with POCKETS FULL of cash from the day before & have to face a line like this... So now, since the public might be a little 'tentative' (& light) here (due to their GENIUS in taking the Chiefs & Falcons - you know, those CAN'T MISS playoff teams from a year ago)... The damage won't be so bad here... People won't change their minds & take Miami in this spot, they'll just bet LESS than they would have...
I still expect to see some line movement here (maybe up to 9 points - which would BUST some exotics if the Patriots happen to win by a FG)... But I don't think Vegas really cares...
Therefore... I'll take the PATRIOTS for (5 units here)...
Line (before preseason): Broncos by 3
Raiders 23 - Broncos 20 (incorrect)
Raiders 23 - Broncos 20 (incorrect)
I'm going to go with the same dynamic as with the Patriots-Dolphins... The public likes Denver by 59%... I shouldn't be laying 3 points here backing a somewhat crappy team... But the 'other' dynamics' are more of what's at stake here... The Broncos were embarrassed by the Raiders last year...
I'll take the BRONCOS for (1 unit)...
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PRESEASON PICKS (to make playoffs & Superbowl) - Picks to be finalized before Week 1 kickoff...
NFC East - Eagles
NFC South - Saints #2
NFC North - Packers #1
NFC West - Cardinals
Wildcard - Falcons
Wildcard - Buccaneers
AFC East - Patriots #1
AFC South - Colts
AFC North - Ravens #2
AFC West - Chargers
Wildcard - Jets
Wildcard - Steelers
NFC Championship - Saints vs. Packers
AFC Championship - Ravens vs. Patriots
Superbowl - Saints vs. Patriots
WOW.. this site has such great info. Thanks! I thought you guys would like this one, perfectly articulates the relationship between the bears and packers fans. http://bit.ly/NFLdogs
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