Thursday, November 1, 2012

Week 9 NFL Picks

Pretty "underwhelming" week last week... Truly uninspired... All season ~ it feels like I'm just meandering around the .500 level... The only way to "break through" is to get a correct call (or three) on some HIGH UNIT games... (While I'm above .500 on 'picks', I'm (-16) on UNIT picks, which basically translates to -$1,760 on a mythical $10,000 playing season bankroll... Thus far, I have not made even one 5 unit pick on any game (& have also avoided  making a "pick of the month" play for either September or October)... Just a couple of high unit picks (which I've said ~ I've avoided could easily turn things around)... I'm trying to be patient here...

Usually (for me), those high unit plays come when there is a clear "bias" (in that the public has totally lost faith in one team [positive or negative])... Those are 'situations' you can exploit, but there is so much 'parity' in the NFL this year [just look at the records & standings], OR, the TOP & STRUGGLING teams aren't the usual suspects... This week is a perfect example... The Falcons are undefeated & the Dallas Cowboys are led by a QB [Romo] who is a perennial underachiever, leads the league [by 3] in interceptions thrown [three more than even Cleveland Browns rookie Brandon Weeden]... & the Cowboys are missing their top RB, & have wideouts that are distracted with injuries, off field problems, & 'butterfingers'... YET ~ the public still hasn't quit on the Cowboys [either that ~ or they just can't get totally on board the Falcons]... I'm not saying they 'should' or 'shouldn't'... I'm just saying that situations like that are what this total handicapping season has been about this year...

On top of that ~ there don't seem to be many underachieving 'stinkers' out there... Case in point ~ the Saints... Now, I did not pick them to make the playoffs this year (a POV which was a 'minority' at the beginning of the season)... But they continue to be backed by the public [even this week vs. the Eagles, who are another underachieving team]...

I don't know what to say... I'm going to TRY to put some more units on some games this week (simply because I think it's "GO" time)... IOW ~ It's time for the NFL 'elite' to start separating themselves from the dredges... That's not usually my style of picking... But it seems to be the best option at the moment...


WEEK 10 NCAA PICKS (official)

I'm looking at the following games... Colorado, Maryland, UTSA, South Alabama, Tulane, Indiana
2012 NCAA Picks (after week 9): 13-4-0


Kansas City (+7.5) at San Diego ~ 0 units

2012 NFL Picks (YTD regular season picks aggregate): 60-53-2
2012 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'unit picks' aggregate differential): (-16)
2012 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'exotics' differential): (+0)
2012 NFL Picks (week 1): 6-9-0
2012 NFL Picks (week 2): 8-5-2
2012 NFL Picks (week 3): 7-9-0
2012 NFL Picks (week 4): 11-4-0
2012 NFL Picks (week 5): 7-7-0
2012 NFL Picks (week 6): 8-6-0
2012 NFL Picks (week 7): 7-6-0
2012 NFL Picks (week 8: 6-7-0

*ALL picks ATS [against the spread]
CINCINNATI (+3.5) vs. Denver ~ 0 units
GREEN BAY (-10) vs. Arizona ~ 0 units
*MIAMI (-1.5) at Indianapolis ~ 1 unit
BALTIMORE (-3.5) at Cleveland ~ 2 units
BUFFALO (+10.5) at Houston ~ 2 units
CAROLINA (+3) at Washington ~ 0 units
DETROIT (-3.5) at Jacksonville ~ 1 unit
CHICAGO (-5) at Tennessee ~ 1 unit
SEATTLE (-4) vs. Minnesota ~ 0 units
*OAKLAND (-1.5) vs. Tampa Bay ~ 2 units
NY GIANTS (-3) vs. Pittsburgh ~ 0 units
DALLAS (+4) at Atlanta ~ 5 units
NEW ORLEANS (-3) vs. Philadelphia ~ 0 units
*a PICK CHANGE vs. earlier in the week...