2012 Kentucky Derby
(the run for the roses)
I'm not going to give a lot of detailed horse analysis (Beyer ratings, Dosage Index, bullet works, etc.)... There are numerouse sources for those around the interenet... I'm just going to stick with the "pick(s)"... We'll do this assuming a mythical (which won't be 'mythical' for yours truly) bankroll of $1,000...
Call that 'par', so anyone who wishes to follow up on the strategy can scale it downwards or upwards rather easily...
I'm going with 'DULLAHAN' as the winner... I'm hoping for a fast pace in the race (set by Hansen, & Bodemeister), which should set up well for long striding closers (like Dullahan & 'I'll Have Another')...
The Kentucky Derby is a race that is very hard to predict because you need a lot of racing luck... Generally speaking, 'speed' horses don't prevail as they have difficulty stretching their endurance to 1 1/4 miles... I'm thinking that will be the case today... This is also why we have not seen a Triple Crown winner in over 30 years (Affirmed)... It's very likely that the winner here today will then go on to lose the Preakness (at Pimlico) which is 1/16 of a mile shorter & raced over a faster racing surface (speed horses fare better at Pimlico)...
In the Derby, a horse coming from behind had to potentially face a lot of adversity (bumping, an/or lanes shutting down which force a colt running at full speed to alter course)... If the track is sloppy, it presents further complications... Also, Churchill Downs is a dirt track, while many of the prep races for th horses in the field were run on synthetic tracks...
I'm going to go with 'DULLAHAN'... This horse will most likely find his best running, actually, in turf races, but I think he can win here... I'm going to bet him to WIN & PLACE (place bet as a minor insurance policy for bad racing luck)... If he comes in out of the money, then c'est la vie...
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| Dullahan |
Notwithstanding the above photo, Dullahan will be the #5 horse...
I'm going to also play an EXACTA BOX with 'DULLAHAN' & 'I'LL HAVE ANOTHER'
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| I'll Have Another |
I'll Have Another will be the #19 horse (who also should have the same late turn of foot as Dullahan ~ both horses should probably be at the very back of the pack by about 12-13 lengths throughout the backstretch before making their moves on the far turn & turning it on in the lane)...
Lastly, I'm going to put 'UNION RAGS' into a small play... Union Rags probably has the pedigree for this sort of race & should factor in somewhere...
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| Union Rags |
Union Rags will be wearing the #4 saddlecloth...
My $1000 bankroll will be wagered as follows:
$400 to WIN on 'Dullahan'
$400 to PLACE on 'Dullahan'
$100 EXACTA BOX (5&19) ~ meaning a 19-5 or 5-19 finish pays
$90 EXACTA BOX (4-5-19)
$10 mint julep - (can't lose with that bet)
Good Luck!
