First of all, I want to say that I'm not real big on doing NFL 'Mock Draft's'...
Half of it is 'Captain Obvious', then the other half is like trying to choose which highschoolers will ask each other to the Senior Prom... & that's not to mention the fact that with all the offseason personnel changes (with coaching regimes, general managers & front offices), it's a total crapshoot...
So really, you waste your time even picking thru Round 1 of a draft (and the following rounds are utter folly to predict)... By the end of the first day anyway (hell ~ mostly after the first dozen or so picks are off the board, the TV lights go dim & all that's left in Radio City Music Hall are a bunch of drunk Jets fans who are still dizzy trying to figure out what to do with Tim Tebow [who was drafted by the Denver Broncos in the first place])...
So here goes (for entertainment purposes only):
1. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
I don't really have to go into this, do I? Irsay is still trying to be mysterious about the whole thing (yeah, right, like he was mysterious until the end about letting Peyton Manning go)...
2. WASHINGTON REDSKINS, Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
You don't trade up to the 2nd pick in the draft so that you can take Ryan Tannehill do you?... Unless Shanahan wants to thrill Washington fans again with the Rex Grossman, John Beck carousel...
3. MINNESOTA VIKINGS, Matt Kalil, OT, USC
Kalil might go as a #1 pick in certain years of a draft, but he falls here mostly due to the above two large prospects at franchise QB's... Not only is LT, arguably, the most coveted position in the NFL (after QB), but the Vikes drafted their franchise QB (Ponder) last year and have to give him protection... It is still unclear how Adrian Peterson is recovering from his knee injury suffered at the end of last season, so Ponder may have to carry more of the offensive workload... This is a big "need" position for Minnesota...
4. CLEVELAND BROWNS, Trade?
Anything could happen here... Cleveland was in the drivers seat to trade up to the #2 pick and take RGIII... They passed on it, (which means another year of Colt McCoy)... I hate to say it, Cleveland fans, but it looks like Holmgren has already written off the year for your team... There's no way that Cleveland can compete in the AFC North with Baltimore, Pittsburgh, & Cincinnati in the same division... Cleveland, however, does have a solid defense (with 2 shut down corners), so they might try and fortify the interior line... I wouldn't doubt if Cleveland has its eye on Matt Barkley as a #1 choice in next years draft, so they might just be biding time... So that brings up the question as to whether or not to draft Trent Richardson in this spot (as some "mockers" are predicting)... Frankly, I don't see it... With Peyton Hillis gone, that tells me that they might want to finally give Montario Hardesty a full chance... The shelf life of Trent Richardson would get wasted in the punishing NFC North (just like Rashard Mendenhall)... So while the Browns may take Richardson, I see the possibility of them TRADING this pick down...
5. TAMPA BAY BUCS, Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
I'm, of course, assuming that Richardson is still on the board... It's very difficult to predict what philosophy the Bucs may have with a whole new coaching regime in place... Add in the volatility of the division (with the 'Saints' situation, & the re-emergence of the Carolina Panthers)... This is too up in the air to predict...
6. ST LOUIS RAMS, Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
First of all, you have to recall that the Rams traded the #2 pick to be allowed to fall here... That means that there must be a player on the board who can help them who can fall here... That player has to be Blackmon... (Note: if Matt Kalil happens to fall here, that'll be the pick, but other than LT, to protect Sam Bradford from getting the 'David Carr' treatment, Bradford needs someone to throw to)... When Josh McDaniel was offensive coordinator last year, he brought in Brandon Lloyd... But as I predicted, when McDaniel went to the Patriots at the end of last year, Lloyd followed... So WR is a 'need' for the Rams (& Blackmon is a stud)... The Rams should have Danny Amendola back in the lineup next year at slot receiver, so the addition of Blackmon should help this offense...
7. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS, Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
I'm going to treat this as I did with the Cleveland Browns pick above... Not that they'll trade the pick, but mostly with regards to the QB situation... It would be logical here to try and give some offensive line support to their (cough cough) "franchise" QB (Blaine Gabbert), but unless I'm wrong, Gabbert isn't going to make it in the NFL (like Colt McCoy)... What Jacksonville needs (as all teams do) is to think "DIVISION FIRST"... Their foes are Indy, Houston, & Tennessee... All three, arguably have authentic franchise QB's... (Luck, Schaub, Locker)... Jax will need to put pressure on those guys... The other possibility here is Morris Claiborne (LSU)... But that is assuming he falls here... I'm predicting that someone TRADE'S UP (to Cleveland), which means that Claiborne would be off the board...
8. MIAMI DOLPHINS, Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
I'm not going to make any major case for Ryan Tannehill... He potentially has upside (but he really has only been playing the QB position for 2 years)... Miami is weird... They're always on the wrong foot... I mean, put it this way, Chad Henne or Matt Moore would be just as serviceable as this guy, so why bet the whole future when you can bolster your roster elsewhere... Some franchises 'get it', others don't...
9. CAROLINA PANTHERS, Trade?
The Panthers are quickly becoming a 'Ron Rivera' team... They were very lucky to get Cam Newton last year (which helped cover up a lot of offensive ineptness)... But Ron Rivera is a defensive guy & they're still trying to recover from losing Julius Peppers... Basically what I see here needing help in either a pass rusher, or a nose tackle... From my perspective, a nose tackle would be more valuable, because the Panthers play the Saints, Bucs, & Falcons in their division... Both Brees & Matt Ryan are quick decision QB's (which tend to negate the pass rush), & Josh Freeman is mobile... At nose tackle could be Dontari Poe (MEMPHIS), but there are other teams (namely Dallas Cowboys), who may start getting nervous, and offer a trade for this pick slot)...
10. BUFFALO BILLS, Riley Reiff, OT Iowa
The Bills are notorious for drafting 'busts' at offensive tackle... Reiff is overrated IMHO, but it is a need... What the Bills really needed was a pass rush (but they bought it in the off season with Mario Williams & Mark Anderson)... The Bills gave Ryan Fitzpatrick a long term contract last season, so this is a logical (albeit 'vanilla') decision...
11. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS, Dontari Poe, NT, Memphis
This pick is only assuming Poe is still on the board... As I said before, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Dallas Cowboys jump up a few spots to take him (as there are several teams in this range of the draft who would covet a prospect like Poe... You have to remember that Todd Haley is gone now & this is Romeo Crennel's team... He's defensive minded, & the team to beat will be the Denver Broncos in that division (with Peyton Manning)... I'm predicting that John Fox (Denver HC), will be getting either Jonathan Stewart or DeAngelo Williams from Carolina, which means that the Chiefs will have to focus on stopping at least part of Denver's offensive scheme... If Poe is gone, they'll probably take the best linebacker in the draft (Luke Kuechly ~ BOSTON COLLEGE)...
12. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Can't really make a prediction here (but rest assured it will be stupid)... It's not all their fault, it's just that their 'needs' positions (pass rush, offensive tackle), the best players will all be off the board... They could TRADE DOWN, but that's why they're stupid... The New England Patriots or the Baltimore Ravens, if faced with this decision, would not hesitate to trade down... That's why they are perennial contenders... The only way the pick would not be stupid is if Morris Claiborne falls all the way down here (which is unlikely)...
13. ARIZONA CARDINALS, David DeCastro, G, Stanford
Ken Wisenhunt will not hesitate to bring help to the offensive line if it is available... The Cards clearly lost the Peyton Manning sweepstakes & for better or worse, they're stuck with Kevin Kolb... Beanie Wells only manages to play half the games on the schedule & a little help here is the best they can hope for...
14. DALLAS COWBOYS, Trade
I predicted earlier that the Cowboys may make a move to trade up to take Dontari Poe... Most likely either to the Cleveland Browns spot, or the Carolina Panthers spot... If they are unsuccerssful, it's entirely likely that (Quentin Coples ~ NORTH CAROLINA) falls here (& Jerry Jones has no problems drafting guys with character issues)...
15. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Their biggest need position is at LB, but Andy Reed is the most unpredictable decision maker on the planet... Luke Kuechly would be a natural pick here (but he probably wouldn't fall this far)... Next would be offensive line help (but the talent pool is arguably 'less' than a 'best player on the board' scenario)... For that reason, Reed may simply go for re-inforcements and take DT Devon Still... I'm not going to try and predict what Andy Reed will do...
16. NEW YORK JETS
My position is that whenever you think of the Jets, you have to think of "payroll"... The Jets have the knack of signing high profile free agents (think: Tebow, Santonio Holmes, Plaxico Burress, LaDanian Tomlinson, Cromartie ~ over the past few years)... At the same time, they need to hold on to their top defensive talent (Revis, Bart Scott, etc.)... So the struggle is to fill in holes where they can squeeze in salaries in positions where they might fail to "keep" talent... Probably strong safety is a need & Courtney Upshaw ~ ALABAMA might fit the bill... The other thing that Rex Ryan likes to do is jump in front of the Baltimore Ravens everytime he gets a chance (& the Ravens will be drafting for a SS within a few years as Ed Reed will retire before long)...
17. CINCINNATI BENGALS, Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
The Bengals had this position wrapped up until they didn't... Nate Clements is getting old, & Leon Hall (the 'Queen City' version of Darelle Revis) will be out with a torn achilles...
18. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS, Stephen Gilmore, CB,
The Chargers acquired Jarret Johnson (more 'gutting' of the Baltimore Ravens talent) as a rush linebacker, so I'm not sure if Whitney Mercilius will be a choice here... It would not surprise me if the Ravens actually move up into this spot to take Mercilius (which is why they let Johnson go to San Diego in the first place ~ kind of a backroom deal)...
19. CHICAGO BEARS, Cordy Glenn, G
The Bears have many options here (which is to say "needs")... First & foremost has to be maximizing output for Jay Cutler... I think you have to examine the moves the Bears have already made... Curiously leaving Matt Forte hanging, as well as bringing in Michael Bush from the Raiders & Brandon Marshall to throw to... You gotta think that the Bears think their best shot at being competitive in the NFC North are to be able to get into points battles, somewhat, with the Lions & Packers (& possibly yield a little ground defensively vs. those teams [which is usually the area that the Bears focus on])... I really don't know, but it sure looks like the offseason moves have been geared towards the offense...
20. TENNESSEE TITANS
Mike Munchak is not only a guy who likes to build a team from the 'interior line', he also knows that to compete in the AFC South, he's in a spot where a solid defense would pay dividends (rebuilding Colts, inept Jaguars offense, or, NEED to slow down the Houston offense)...
There are rumors that the Titans would want to trade UP for Luke Kuechly here (which would likely mean a team who could afford to trade down to #20)... There are several possibilities for that (most likely, Chiefs, Seahawks, or Cardinals)... Barring trade, the likely pick here would be Michael Brockers, DT, LSU...
21. CINCINNATI BENGALS (pick from the Raiders in Carson Palmer deal)
If the Bengals don't take a CB with their first pick, they'll do so here... Otherwise, this pick could be dealt...
22. CLEVELAND BROWNS, Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
Way up top, I'd predicted that the Browns may opt to trade the #4 pick (who might have been either Trent Richardson or Morris Claiborne to a team that was coveting them)... That logic plays in to this scenario as well... The fact is that Cleveland was even more in the drivers seat to get RGIII (but let the #2 pick go to the Redskins)... This means that Holmgren is looking to the future to draft a QB before he pulls the plug on Colt McCoy... When Holmgren eventually does get a QB, it would be nice if his offensive line was in place... So it's likely to assume that Jonathan Martin would be the choice here (if available)... But remember, if the Browns trade the #4 pick down, they might actually be in an earlier spot to take Martin (which is why, either way, I think they're targeting him)...
23. DETROIT LIONS
The Lions are being rocked with drug issues in the offseason (Fairley, LeShoure)... While they need defensive secondary help, this might make them shy away from Janoris Jenkins... Probably the next best player on the board would be SS Mark Barron ~ ALABAMA...
24. PITTSBURGH STEELERS, Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama
The Steelers just cut James Farrior, & as I mentioned before, the entire NFL likes to jump in front of the Baltimore Ravens when it comes to talent... Hightower is another player from Alabama (which has been a seedbed, along with the University of Miami, for a lot of Ravens defensive personnel)... I'd be surprised if the Steelers don't take Hightower if he's on the board here...
25. DENVER BRONCOS, Peter Konz, G/C, Wisconsin
No doubt, Peyton Manning would have wanted Jeff Saturday to come to Denver... Alas, he signed with the Packers... Konz is the best C prospect on the board (a position where the Broncos need to fill a long term position)... Konz could start at the G position & have Manning 'school' him to moving to the center position within a year or so... There are certainly 'crazier' options...
26. HOUSTON TEXANS, Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC
This may be a tough decision because there is a need to fill Mario Williams shoes, but there is also a big need at the WR position... Andre Johnson just can't stay healthy & the Texans need depth at the position anyway... I only put Perry as the pick above, because I'm not sure if the other WR prospects will be off the board or not... Traditionally, the WR position (in the NFL) is a wasted pick to draft in the first round (because the 'curve' to transitioning to more disciplined route running, more complex offenses, & more talent at the NFL CB level is daunting)... However, since the NFL has become a passing league as of late, many rookie WR's have blossomed early (Julio Jones, AJ Green, Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, & Dez Bryant all come to mind)... The pecking order of WR prospects are Justin Blackmon, Malcom Floyd, Kendall Wright, & Stephen Hill... Blackmon will surely be gone by here, but if any of the other three are available, they'd likely be the choice (instead of Perry)...
27. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
You never know what the Patriots are going to do... It's likely that Belichick will just trade this pick (& all his picks) for first rounders in the year 2030... The Patriots need defensive help (so says the "chalk"), but remember that Jerod Mayo was hurt a stretch last year & the division rivals aren't exactly offensive juggernauts... "The Law Firm" (BenJarvus Green Ellis) is gone, so the Pats may trade, draft down & pick up a RB prospect)... I wouldn't be surprised to see LaMichael James go here...
28. GREEN BAY PACKERS, Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
The Packers need a CB to both replace aging Charles Woodson &/or add depth to a crew that is consistently injured... Gilmore is the best player on the board (assuming he's not already taken)...
29. BALTIMORE RAVENS
The Ravens have themselves in a strange spot in this draft... Traditionally, Ozzie Newsome is a lot like Bill Belichick (and likes to trade down for picks)... Before you go on, you have to study the Ravens offseason moves... Both Ray Lewis & Ed Reed will retire soon (but will play this season)... I'm sure that this will be the last season for Lewis (& possibly Reed, as well)... Strangely, the Ravens let Jarrett Johnson go to the San Diego Chargers... I mentioned earlier that the Ravens may trade UP to get a player like Whitney Mercilius... The other players at the LB position (like Donta Hightower) will probably be snatched up ahead of the Ravens... They have solidified Haloti Ngata & Terelle Suggs with long term contracts... They'll need safety help for when Reed retires (so Mark Barron or Courtney Upshaw are possibilities)... But they'll also need a center replacement for Matt Birk (who is probably a year from retirement)... I've already slated Peter Konz for going to Denver... If he's available, the Ravens will take him & put him at G (to replace Ben Grubbs)... Ray Rice has a franchise tag (which curiously means that he may only play one more year in Baltimore, unless they're just maneuvering for cap space issues)... It's hard to predict what's going to happen here (& is largely dependent on the talent on the board at the time of the pick)...
30. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS, Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford
The 49ers are one of two teams in the NFL that use a 2 TE set (other is the Patriots)... I would expect that Jim Harbaugh would be glad to take a guy he coached at Stanford that is arguably the best player on the board at the position to add depth to this scheme...
31. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS, Devon Still, DE/DT, Penn State
It's always amusing to see great players fall to the Patriots... It's because the Patriots are a "flexible" team (both on offense & defense)... While most teams are drafting for "need", the Patriots always seem to have "talent" fall to them late in the draft because they don't look at players in terms of what position they play, or if they fit a particular scheme... The Patriots shape the scheme based on the talent they have...
32. NEW YORK GIANTS, LaMichael James, RB, Oregon
Brandon Jacobs is now a 49er, & it's doubtful that Ahmad Bradshaw can carry a full workload... James is a speedy back that can also play 3rd down...
