2011 NCAA Picks (aggregate 'unit picks' differential): -10
2011 NCAA (aggregate EXOTICS differential): 6-6-1 (-1 unit)
2011 NCAA Picks (week 10): 0-1
2011 NCAA (week 10 'unit picks' differential): -10
2011 NCAA (week 10 EXOTICS 'unit picks' differential): +0
*all picks 'ATS' (against the spread)
- Link to NCAA Division 1 scores from yesterday's games -
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PREVIEW: There is really only one game and one game only that anyone should be interested in (if you're NOT Oklahoma State, Stanford, or Boise State)...
I'm probably going to only do one pick this week (on the aforementioned GAME OF THE YEAR)... If you haven't figured out what that game is yet then you probably have accidentally arrived at the wrong blog...
Eh well... I'll probably end up tossing out a few picks (you know - the 'undercard' so to speak - so as to kill time during the afternoon assuming all your leaf raking, swimming pool closing, & boat winterizing chores have been completed [not to mention 'popcorn shopping' - Take my advice - go with the BIG bag to get you thru Sunday Night])...
I'm probably going to only do one pick this week (on the aforementioned GAME OF THE YEAR)... If you haven't figured out what that game is yet then you probably have accidentally arrived at the wrong blog...
Eh well... I'll probably end up tossing out a few picks (you know - the 'undercard' so to speak - so as to kill time during the afternoon assuming all your leaf raking, swimming pool closing, & boat winterizing chores have been completed [not to mention 'popcorn shopping' - Take my advice - go with the BIG bag to get you thru Sunday Night])...
WEEK 10 NCAA PICKS - 2011
Saturday, November 5, 2011
#1 LSU at #2 Alabama (-5.5) (8:00 ET)
Box Score | Recap
It's probably more boring to hear (in words) about all the statistical differences which match/separate these two teams... Some people think it's difficult to make "apples to oranges" comparisons (or in this case - purple/gold & crimson), but it can be actually be harder to make apples to apples comparisons (which is the case we have here)...
All day long (or all week long), if you're a sports fan you've been hearing about the defensive prowess of both teams, plus a few nuggets on "factor" players & coaching psychology... I'm not going to waste space by telling you all the things you either already know, or have gained sudden knowledge about this past week...
Instead, I'm going to 'angle' this piece towards filtering out all the noise and telling you what effectively STANDS OUT (to me) about this match-up...
In past weeks, I've given to you readers of this blog various nuggets about both Bama & LSU (most of which pointed towards this game here)... I had no doubt in my mind at the beginning of this season that this day (this game), would come down to this... #1 vs. #2... Amazingly, this is the first time in history that 2 SEC teams have met as #1 & #2 during the regular season... A few years ago, Bama met Florida as #1 & #2 (but that was in the SEC Championship game... Anyway, it brings up a point... Many (including myself) want an NCAA 'playoff' system to determine the national championship (it would easily rival the "March Madness" as a television sporting spectacle... Ironically though, if there were a playoff system, a game of this magnitude would never occur in the regular season... Teams would basically be playing for "spots"... Both of these teams would easily make the final playoff brackets, and thus the pressure would be off for this game...
Not here though... It's likely that the loser of this game will not be playing for the national championship (in January)... Everyone knows that (which is why this game is so important & the "student body" ticket recipients, who get their tickets for $5 bucks, are getting as much as $900 for them in the secondary market)...
OK... so aside from the "X"'s & "O's", let me try to narrow down what I feel is relevant (with regards to handicapping) about this game... Let's start by assuming that EVERYTHING ELSE IS EQUAL (which it pretty much is)...
1. When all else is equal (think "apples to apples" here)... Take the BEST PLAYER ON THE FIELD... That, IMO, would be "Trent Richardson" of Alabama... What's more important is the fact that he runs very well between the tackles... Part of LSU's strength on defense is their quickness (which is why they were able to contain West Virginia & Oregon... LaMichael James & Geno Smith don't run with their shoulder pads lined up directly north south... Trent Richardson does... And more important, he's running behing an offensive line that is MUCH more physical (& outweighs substantially) what either the Ducks or Mountaineers are capable of recruiting... You could pretty much toss in Florida & Tennessee (which a lot of handicappers of this game are pointing to as being the "apples to apples" comparison as to how Alabama & LSU match up vs. common opponents), but I think the "apples to oranges" angle is being missed...
LSU's defense stacked up very well vs. WVU & Oregon (which is why their win record looks impressive)... Alabama only has Penn State on its resume (out of conference)... But basically, Alabama pushed PSU all over the field... Going back to the original point... I think that the style of Trent Richardson (not needing to get on 'the edge') negates LSU's speed advantage on defense)... CHECK BOX GOES TO ALABAMA...
2. Which team is better coached?... I can't really criticize Les Miles for still having his players ready to play on Saturday amid multiple suspensions & various other distractions... But Nick Saban is a machine... In the end, I think this game is going to come down to the team with the better discipline... "A war of attrition" so to speak... I feel confident that Saban's boys are ultimately more patient & disciplined that the boys playing for Les Miles... Much has been made about the "gambling" style of Les Miles (the crazy miracle plays that he conjures up at just the right moments)... My feeling is that that rubber band is stretched TOO FAR at the moment... I doubt Nick Saban has failed to anticipate anything, and probably more importantly, has the talent on his team to deal with it... CHECK BOX GOES TO ALABAMA
3. Home field advantage... really? If you look at the numbers, there is actually a statistical advantage of ROAD TEAMS (in this matchup) holding an advantage... I'm not putting too much weight on that statistic... Never before has a meeting of this magnitude occurred... So if you're using solely an awkward statistical bias as your TIEBREAKER here, you might as well just light fire to your money... CHECK BOX GOES TO NO BIAS...
4. Intangibles... To make things simple, I'll boil this down to what other 'hiccups' either team may face after this game on the schedule that may upset the path to getting to the national championship... basically, it's Auburn ahead for Alabama, & Arkansas ahead for LSU... In weaker years, I might make a case for that happening, but not this year... The winner here WILL PLAY for the national championship (not even the SEC Championship game, IMO, will make a difference)... CHECK BOX GOES TO NO BIAS...
5. The VEGAS ANGLE... This is obviously a game of great interest to the sportsbooks... Undoubtedly, it'll be the most heavily wagered upon game of the year until bowl season arrives (& possibly outdo the number of bet tickets for many of the bowl games)... I think the line they set was PERFECT...
Why?
Because 3 points is standard issuance for HOME TEAM advantage (notwithstanding what I said above)... This basically makes Alabama a 2-2.5 point favorite... I think that's right... But the real beauty of ther line is that most casual bettors (football fans who know SQUAT about football & otherwise weekend party-goers who have SUDDEN INTEREST in a big weekend shindig might be swayed into letting the 'experts' tell them that these teams are so evenly matched it isn't funny... Therefore... WHY NOT take the points?... After all, this is going to be one of those closely played games that comes down to a field goal kicked as time expires (or OVERTIME - for goodness sake)... Yeah baby! give me the team with the 5-5.5 points on that case... Cha Ching!...
The answer is, that ALL of the above might be true... Closely contested (perhaps even overtime)... But I feel... INSTEAD... That that all plays better towards laying the points with ALABAMA...
67% of the public has already sided with the logic that LSU is getting a lot of points here (& how could that be?... after all THEY are ranked #1 & Bama is #2)... PSYCHOLOGY BITCHEZ... I said before that I KNEW this matchup would occur at the beginning of the season (and here it is)... The reputations of each of these teams have been carefully cultivated... Public justifiably duped...
Practically... I expect a pretty close game throughout (as I mentioned above - each team trying harder NOT TO LOSE than to actually win)... A battle of attrition... I believe the deciding factore will be the BETTER PLAYER (Trent Richardson), managing to help his team win the field position battle which ought to lead to a slight advantage late into the game (yet STILL undecided)...
At that point, frustration takes over, whereby LSU (the less disciplined team), commits an error in trying to gamble to get back in to it... It may happen in regular play... It may actually WORK & send the game into overtime... But then you have to understand the RULES of overtime in college football... After 2 overtimes, a team is forced to attempt a 2 point conversion after a TD... This means that an overtime result can still cover a 5.5 spread...
Bottom Line? The more checkpoints there are, the more I still see how Alabama can satisfy its supporters here...
NOVEMBER NCAA PICK OF THE MONTH - (I'm partly going with a 10 unit play to recover to even on the year (unit wise)... I'm UP on winning percentage [see above], but I'm down on units [as well documented, my strength is NFL football vs. NCAA]...
Otherwise... This would still be my PICK OF THE MONTH... Units notwithstanding...
All day long (or all week long), if you're a sports fan you've been hearing about the defensive prowess of both teams, plus a few nuggets on "factor" players & coaching psychology... I'm not going to waste space by telling you all the things you either already know, or have gained sudden knowledge about this past week...
Instead, I'm going to 'angle' this piece towards filtering out all the noise and telling you what effectively STANDS OUT (to me) about this match-up...
In past weeks, I've given to you readers of this blog various nuggets about both Bama & LSU (most of which pointed towards this game here)... I had no doubt in my mind at the beginning of this season that this day (this game), would come down to this... #1 vs. #2... Amazingly, this is the first time in history that 2 SEC teams have met as #1 & #2 during the regular season... A few years ago, Bama met Florida as #1 & #2 (but that was in the SEC Championship game... Anyway, it brings up a point... Many (including myself) want an NCAA 'playoff' system to determine the national championship (it would easily rival the "March Madness" as a television sporting spectacle... Ironically though, if there were a playoff system, a game of this magnitude would never occur in the regular season... Teams would basically be playing for "spots"... Both of these teams would easily make the final playoff brackets, and thus the pressure would be off for this game...
Not here though... It's likely that the loser of this game will not be playing for the national championship (in January)... Everyone knows that (which is why this game is so important & the "student body" ticket recipients, who get their tickets for $5 bucks, are getting as much as $900 for them in the secondary market)...
OK... so aside from the "X"'s & "O's", let me try to narrow down what I feel is relevant (with regards to handicapping) about this game... Let's start by assuming that EVERYTHING ELSE IS EQUAL (which it pretty much is)...
1. When all else is equal (think "apples to apples" here)... Take the BEST PLAYER ON THE FIELD... That, IMO, would be "Trent Richardson" of Alabama... What's more important is the fact that he runs very well between the tackles... Part of LSU's strength on defense is their quickness (which is why they were able to contain West Virginia & Oregon... LaMichael James & Geno Smith don't run with their shoulder pads lined up directly north south... Trent Richardson does... And more important, he's running behing an offensive line that is MUCH more physical (& outweighs substantially) what either the Ducks or Mountaineers are capable of recruiting... You could pretty much toss in Florida & Tennessee (which a lot of handicappers of this game are pointing to as being the "apples to apples" comparison as to how Alabama & LSU match up vs. common opponents), but I think the "apples to oranges" angle is being missed...
LSU's defense stacked up very well vs. WVU & Oregon (which is why their win record looks impressive)... Alabama only has Penn State on its resume (out of conference)... But basically, Alabama pushed PSU all over the field... Going back to the original point... I think that the style of Trent Richardson (not needing to get on 'the edge') negates LSU's speed advantage on defense)... CHECK BOX GOES TO ALABAMA...
2. Which team is better coached?... I can't really criticize Les Miles for still having his players ready to play on Saturday amid multiple suspensions & various other distractions... But Nick Saban is a machine... In the end, I think this game is going to come down to the team with the better discipline... "A war of attrition" so to speak... I feel confident that Saban's boys are ultimately more patient & disciplined that the boys playing for Les Miles... Much has been made about the "gambling" style of Les Miles (the crazy miracle plays that he conjures up at just the right moments)... My feeling is that that rubber band is stretched TOO FAR at the moment... I doubt Nick Saban has failed to anticipate anything, and probably more importantly, has the talent on his team to deal with it... CHECK BOX GOES TO ALABAMA
3. Home field advantage... really? If you look at the numbers, there is actually a statistical advantage of ROAD TEAMS (in this matchup) holding an advantage... I'm not putting too much weight on that statistic... Never before has a meeting of this magnitude occurred... So if you're using solely an awkward statistical bias as your TIEBREAKER here, you might as well just light fire to your money... CHECK BOX GOES TO NO BIAS...
4. Intangibles... To make things simple, I'll boil this down to what other 'hiccups' either team may face after this game on the schedule that may upset the path to getting to the national championship... basically, it's Auburn ahead for Alabama, & Arkansas ahead for LSU... In weaker years, I might make a case for that happening, but not this year... The winner here WILL PLAY for the national championship (not even the SEC Championship game, IMO, will make a difference)... CHECK BOX GOES TO NO BIAS...
5. The VEGAS ANGLE... This is obviously a game of great interest to the sportsbooks... Undoubtedly, it'll be the most heavily wagered upon game of the year until bowl season arrives (& possibly outdo the number of bet tickets for many of the bowl games)... I think the line they set was PERFECT...
Why?
Because 3 points is standard issuance for HOME TEAM advantage (notwithstanding what I said above)... This basically makes Alabama a 2-2.5 point favorite... I think that's right... But the real beauty of ther line is that most casual bettors (football fans who know SQUAT about football & otherwise weekend party-goers who have SUDDEN INTEREST in a big weekend shindig might be swayed into letting the 'experts' tell them that these teams are so evenly matched it isn't funny... Therefore... WHY NOT take the points?... After all, this is going to be one of those closely played games that comes down to a field goal kicked as time expires (or OVERTIME - for goodness sake)... Yeah baby! give me the team with the 5-5.5 points on that case... Cha Ching!...
The answer is, that ALL of the above might be true... Closely contested (perhaps even overtime)... But I feel... INSTEAD... That that all plays better towards laying the points with ALABAMA...
67% of the public has already sided with the logic that LSU is getting a lot of points here (& how could that be?... after all THEY are ranked #1 & Bama is #2)... PSYCHOLOGY BITCHEZ... I said before that I KNEW this matchup would occur at the beginning of the season (and here it is)... The reputations of each of these teams have been carefully cultivated... Public justifiably duped...
Practically... I expect a pretty close game throughout (as I mentioned above - each team trying harder NOT TO LOSE than to actually win)... A battle of attrition... I believe the deciding factore will be the BETTER PLAYER (Trent Richardson), managing to help his team win the field position battle which ought to lead to a slight advantage late into the game (yet STILL undecided)...
At that point, frustration takes over, whereby LSU (the less disciplined team), commits an error in trying to gamble to get back in to it... It may happen in regular play... It may actually WORK & send the game into overtime... But then you have to understand the RULES of overtime in college football... After 2 overtimes, a team is forced to attempt a 2 point conversion after a TD... This means that an overtime result can still cover a 5.5 spread...
Bottom Line? The more checkpoints there are, the more I still see how Alabama can satisfy its supporters here...
NOVEMBER NCAA PICK OF THE MONTH - (I'm partly going with a 10 unit play to recover to even on the year (unit wise)... I'm UP on winning percentage [see above], but I'm down on units [as well documented, my strength is NFL football vs. NCAA]...
Otherwise... This would still be my PICK OF THE MONTH... Units notwithstanding...
ALABAMA for (10 units)
The 'spy' says:
(result)
* Bold means that I'd tend to favor that team ATS (but won't suggest a play)
ATS = 'Against the Spread'
--- other TOP #25 action ---
(11/5/11)
ATS = 'Against the Spread'
--- other TOP #25 action ---
(11/5/11)
