Fantasy Sports Nation: Fantasy Sports Nation - 2011 NFL Picks

2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season aggregate): 62-47-3
2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'unit picks' aggregate differential): (+29)

2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'exotics' differential): (+3)

2011 NFL Picks (week 9): 7-7-0

2011 NFL (week 9 'unit picks' differential): (+7)

*all picks 'ATS' (against the spread)

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WEEK 9 NFL PICKS

BYE WEEK: Detroit, Minnesota, Carolina, Jacksonville

PREVIEW: I don't have much to say other than my 'unit picks' will be a little smaller this week... Last week I hit on my OCTOBER PICK OF THE MONTH (which was a trifecta between the Dolphins, Colts, & Rams... I felt very confident that at least two of those would cover (which happened with the Dolphins & Rams)... The latter, won outright by toppling the Saints in an upset... Anyway, the process netted me 6 positive units & I'm not anxious to give it right back... Especially in a week where the public has dented the Vegas bankroll in two successive weeks... Watch your step my friends...

EARLY GAMES

Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EDT)

Line: Falcons by 7

I'm not going to say much about games that I have no or low units on... Here, the story is as it's been all year... I think Irsay has sent the memo to the Colts that he wants "in" on the Suck for Luck sweepstakes... I think the Dolphins will actually get to a 2-14 or better record, so "Suck for Luck" is the Colts to lose... There was a press release this week with Peyton Manning saying he'd love to "play" this year...

All crap... That's just a smokescreen to make it seem like the Colts are trying (which they clearly are not)... Nevertheless, on these large pointspreads AT HOME, a bettor may be in danger of the backdoor cover (Remember Pittsburgh)?...

COLTS for (0 units)...

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (1:00 EDT)

Line: Saints by 8

Here's a revenge game for the Saints (who not only lost to these Bucs a few weeks ago on the road, but got TRAPPED against the Rams last week... The Saints are 1-2 now with Sean Payton watching games from the coaches box upstairs... Something is missing & they're giving up chunks of yards on the ground... That's not good news with LaGarette Blount back toting the rock for the Bucs...

Josh Freeman has been erratic all year, yet he still has the knack for 4th quarter dramatics... I wouldn't want to be laying 8 points and hoping a leaky defense can hold ground against the comeback king in the last 5 minutes...

BUCCANEERS for (1 unit)...

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (1:00 EDT)

Line: Texans by 10.5

Umm... Let me say it again... THE MADDEN CURSE is for real (Peyton Hillis)... Remember that all you fantasy drafters next year... The Browns won't even have Montario Hardesty available, which means if you're a Peyton Hillis owner, a guy named Chris Ogbonnaya is your handcuff... My guess is though, that if you were dumb enough to challenge the Madden Curse, then you weren't bright enough to pick #25 up off of WAIVERS this past week... The interesting thing is that he's also a fairly decent pass catching back (which means that he'll play on 3rd downs vs. a Wade Phillips defense that is somewhat blitz happy)...

Oh... & let's not forget that Ogbonnaya was BORN in Houston, played his college ball at Texas, and played for these Houston Texans earlier in the year (only to be released because he was playing behind Arian Foster & Ben Tate)... Just saying... While at Texas, he played in the same offense as Brown QB Colt McCoy... Gotta love the irony that these two are still wearing orange and are here together in Texas (where's Jordan Shipley)?...

Houston has the #6 ranked passing defense & #5 ranked rushing defense (so moving the chains may be a problem)... I'm always a little suspect on rushing defense stats on teams that feature prolific scoring offenses (like the Texans)... An opposing team simply can't run the ball at will if it finds itself in a hole, or has trouble scoring points...

The Texans will be without Andre Johnson for the 5th straight week... I've heard sportscasters say all week that the Texans may just shut him down until after the BYE week... They INCORRECTLY assume that next week is the BYE week for the Texans, but there is actually a hole... It's week 11 (not 10)... Anyway, without a weapon like AJ, Cleveland stud cornerback Joe Haden ought to really be able to limit what Matt Schaub can do... They'll probably have to rely on Arian Foster once again, but I'd worry that they let the Browns 'hang around' too long here...

I'll take the BROWNS for (0 units)...

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (1:00 EDT)

Line: Bills by 2

All the talking heads in the media seem to be on the Bills here... Look, I can't criticize that fervor (& the Bills basically are playing well enough to deserve some credit)... But just wait a minute... If they win here, they will be ATOP the AFC East division (holding a 'tie-breaker' advantage over the Patriots)... The Jets would drop to 4-4 and all but be 'out of it' for making the playoffs... Say what you will about the Jets, but they always seem to conjure up their best efforts when their backs are against the wall (otherwise, you don't make it to 2 straight AFC Championship games as a wildcard team)...

The Bills have Fred Jackson having a career year, plus Stevie Johnson, & a ball hawking defense... My question is how much will the high scoring Bills offense actually get to play in this game... The Jets have Nick Mangold back at center & Shonn Greene has thus started to show some life... Plaxico Burress is finally starting to become useful & so the Jets may be able to sustain some drives 9especially with the Bills missing nose tackle Kyle Williams & the loss of Shane Merriman earlier this year...

On offense, the Bills have put up their lower point totals vs. the Bengals & New York Giants (both which feature sturdy defenses), and have basically 'lit it up' vs the Patriots, Raiders, & Eagles of the world (which rank at the very bottom, statistically, in defense)... Not even the Bengals or Giants have a REVIS ISLAND, so I'd be worried that the main "go to" target (Stevie Johnson) for the Bills gets shut out...

I still can't say that the Jets are BETTER than the Bills here, but I think that they bring more BIG GAME experience to this moment in time... & speaking of BIG GAMES, the Bills will be 'honoring' former FG kicker Scott Norwood at this game... So in honor of that... I say... "WIDE RIGHT"! (The Bills lose 20-19 on a missed FG by Rian Lindell as time expires)...

I'm going to go with the JETS here for (2 units)...

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (1:00 EDT)

Line: Chiefs by 4

The Dolphins were one of my TRIFECTA of teams last week that allowed me to cash in on what amounted to a 6 unit wager... I actually added 3 more units to that total by taking the Chiefs (vs. the Chargers) on Monday Night... So between these two teams, it tallied my entire UNIT PICK haul for the week...

Hooray for me...

The Dolphins basically aren't going anywhere with Matt Moore at QB (but sometimes he looks sharp - like for about a half of play against the Giants last week)... I still think that the players like playing for Tony Sparano & want to get him some wins before he eventually gets the boot out of South Beach... They've been UP double digits the last two weeks (including a 15 point advantage that they pissed away against Tim Tebow in the last 3 minutes of play 2 weeks ago)...

It reminds me of the way the Vikings were playing at the beginning of the year... Eventually a team will figure out how to play 60 minutes...

Speaking of playing 60 minutes... It was the Chargers who failed AT THE DOOR in Arrowhead Stadium last week to close out the game on the Chiefs... That was a huge emotional high for the chiefs who now have to turn around and play on only 6 days rest to play the lowly Dolphins... That qualifies as a terrible spot to be laying a suspiciously short line...

I think the Chiefs have a very good defense & I don't trust Matt Moore AT ALL... But I'm more worried that the Chiefs come out flat here and the Dolphins are able to build one of those 2 digit leads (as they have the past 2 weeks)... Matt Cassel has played one game in the past vs. the Dolphins (which was the first game he started for the Patriots after the Brady injury a few years ago)... He was guilty of multiple turnovers in that game and only threw for a buck & change...

I'll take the DOLPHINS here for (4 units)...

San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins (1:00 EDT)

Line: 49ers by 3.5

OK... So forget about the West Coast to East Coast (1:00) games... The 49ers seem impervious to it...

I can't fade the 49ers here until they show me some kind of weakness (besides their head coach having overzealous handshakes)... This is a curiously short line so watch out for the "fix"...

The Redskins are about a game away from packing it in for the year so even though I like the game line dynamics, I can't back a squad that seems to be shutting down vs. a team that hardly has made any mistakes & seems to relish wins...

I'll go with the REDSKINS for (0 units)...

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (1:00 EDT)

Line: Cowboys by 11.5

I'm really getting tired of all the 'Tony Romo this & Tony Romo that' talk by sportscasters... Screw Tony Romo... I've already said that I never considered him an elite QB... He puts up stats now & then, but the Cowboys end up 'handcuffed' (which means 'identity-less') by his presence... They seem to have made every roster (& coaching) move over the past few years that any team could make...

- Wade Phillips is OUT (as head coach)
- Jason Garrett is IN
- Rob Ryan is IN (defensive coordinator)
- Marion Barber is OUT
- Roy Williams is IN
- Roy Williams is OUT
- Tashard Choice is OUT

What's the SAME?... Tony Romo... Oh yeah, that & the Cowboys are still below .500 & haven't won a playoff game in a decade...

Maybe it's time...

In any case, I'm basically under the impression that the Cowboys organization (at this point), wouldn't stir up any rumors about Romo during the season, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them go in a different direction if they fail to make the playoffs this year again... Ryan Mallett is sitting on the bench over there in New England, or, if you wanted to wait another year, Tyler Wilson is starting vs. South Carolina (yesterday)...

Seahawks... Bleh! They have their own problems at QB... Interestingly, Tavaris Jackson (assuming he starts), had hooked up fairly well with Sidney Rice in previous games (both coming from Vikes last year)...

The bottom line here is that the Seahawks tend to play crappy away from home (thus the puffy line)... The Cowboys are totally unpredictable...

So as I said in the PREVIEW above, I'm not going to toss away any of my hard earned units on a bunch of players & teams that can't put any consistent performances together from week to week...

I'll go with the COWBOYS for (0 units)...

LATE GAMES

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (4:05 EDT)

Line: Raiders by 7

A lot was made about Andy Reid (& the Eagles) winning their 13th straight game (coming off a BYE week)... I swear, If it weren't for blogs like this, the sportscasters on TV would actually have to do some research work when they weren't getting served tea and getting their make-up applied...

The Raiders are the antithesis of the Eagles (terrible record coming off of BYE weeks)... I don't want to make too much out of that because this is not the "post Al Davis" era (which means new trends could get started)...

(To be continued)...

I'll take the BRONCOS for (3 units)...