2011 NCAA (unit picks differential): -3
- Link to NCAA Division 1 scores from yesterday's games -
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RECAP: Typical start to the 'handicapping' season for yours truly... I'm happy I didn't get slaughtered...
It takes a few weeks to see how the PUBLIC is doing versus the sportsbooks... As usual, the sportsbooks don't seem to mind letting the public have a few easy wins early in the season to keep them coming back... Do I capitalize on that? Hell no! (I'm still looking for the 'angle')...
Yesterday, there were hardly any angles... After all the hype of all the CHANGES in college football over the summer, I pretty much found the games 'business as usual'... The TRENDS I'd spotted last year (for example: Roll with Va Tech until she bucks ya... Never bet against Boise State... NEVER give double digits with the Fighting Irish... USC are 'non-covering' machines... & Big 10 refs are on somebody's payroll... are ALL still in tact)...
So I ended up 4-6... Probably should have been 5-5 (except for Wisconsin, who totally DOMINATED UNLV, gave up a couple of cheesy TD's in the end for a backdoor cover)... What was I thinking? Big 10 refs & UN friggin 'Las Vegas'???
Oh well... It takes awhile to dust off some cobwebs...
THOUGHTS on today's games: Marshall 'often' covers vs. West Virginia (because it's like their Superbowl)... However, this year there's a 'catch'... Usually, the Marshall/WVU games are mid season (when WVU is distracted by some game the following week vs. a Big East rival)... I also remember that Marshall almost shocked the hell out of WVU last year... I'd say that the Mountaineers will be more focused here...
Speaking of focus (or lack thereof)... Texas A&M has been pulling it's "Houdini" act with the Big 12... This is a big game for SMU who would like to add on to last years successful season & the re-emergence of that program... In this season which is beginning with all the scandals (Miami, Ohio State, etc.), wouldn't it be IRONIC to see SMU (the 'poster boy' for the original DEATH PENALTY sentence given to a college football program), get a win here???
Just saying...
WEEK 1 NCAA PICKS - 2011
Friday, September 2, 2011
BAYLOR for (1 unit)
#14 TCU (-3.5) at Baylor (8:00 ET)
TCU lost 9 starters from last years squad (including Andy Dalton). Vegas is trying to herd everyone into taking the Horned Frogs here by having moved the line own from 6 to 3.5...
BAYLOR for (1 unit)
The 'spy' says: The public is taking TCU; 74%
BAYLOR 50 - TCU 48 (correct)
Saturday, September 3, 2011BAYLOR 50 - TCU 48 (correct)
I'm going to continue a trend that I basically started last year... Which was... to basically take Virginia Tech every game (after having gone (0-2) to start last season, both losses coming at Lane Stadium to Boise State & James Madison)... They had to play catch up all season long to eventually make it to the BCS Orange Bowl, but I think the memory of that road will be an idea that Frank Beamer gets across to his kids (especially against an Appalachian State team that is famous for having beat a top division team [Michigan] a few years back)...
VIRGINIA TECH for (1 unit)...
The 'spy' says: The public is taking VIRGINIA TECH; 75%
TV: ESPN Game Plan, DTV: 789 PARTLY SUNNY, SOUTHEAST WIND 5-10. KICKOFF TEMP 88, HEAT INDEX 94
VIRGINIA TECH 66 - APPALACHAIN ST. 13 (correct)
The 'spy' says: The public is taking VIRGINIA TECH; 75%
TV: ESPN Game Plan, DTV: 789 PARTLY SUNNY, SOUTHEAST WIND 5-10. KICKOFF TEMP 88, HEAT INDEX 94
VIRGINIA TECH 66 - APPALACHAIN ST. 13 (correct)
Despite the sanctions against USC & despite most people thinking that Lane Kiffin is an overall jerk, the USC Trojans still have one of the most talented & deep teams in the NCAA... I wouldn't put it past them to run up the score on a Gopher team that is out of its league traveling to the PAC - 10 looking for glory...
USC for (1 unit)
The 'spy' says: The public is taking MINNESOTA; 62%
The 'spy' says: The public is taking MINNESOTA; 62%
TV: ABC MOSTLY SUNNY, WEST WIND 5-10. KICKOFF TEMP 68
USC 19 - MINNESOTA 17 (incorrect)
USC 19 - MINNESOTA 17 (incorrect)
Brian Kelly, if he wants to be taken seriously, an get the Fighting Irish to a BCS game needs quality wins... Finishing 8-4 by beating up on the likes of Navy & Boston College isn't going to cut it... I hate, really hate, laying double digits with the Irish at any time, but I'm going to go along with the waking up the 'echo' of their dismantling of Miami in the Sun Bowl last year...
NOTRE DAME for (1 unit)
The 'spy' says: The public is taking SOUTH FLORIDA; 60%
QB-B.J. Daniels-Probable QB-Dayne Crist- TV: NBC PARTLY SUNNY, 40% CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS LATE. SOUTHWEST WIND 7-12.KICKOFF TEMP 88, HEAT INDEX 95
SOUTH FLORIDA 23 - NOTRE DAME 20 (incorrect)
NOTRE DAME for (1 unit)
The 'spy' says: The public is taking SOUTH FLORIDA; 60%
QB-B.J. Daniels-Probable QB-Dayne Crist- TV: NBC PARTLY SUNNY, 40% CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS LATE. SOUTHWEST WIND 7-12.KICKOFF TEMP 88, HEAT INDEX 95
SOUTH FLORIDA 23 - NOTRE DAME 20 (incorrect)
The other night I was watching the NFL pre-season matchup between the NY Jets & NY Giants (thanks NFL Network for being idiots & putting the game on a 1 hour time delay... Anyway, the Giants were mostly getting embarrassed because Jerrel Jernigan (TROY) fumbled about 3 punt returns... Then, at another point, Osi Umenyiora (TROY) got a neck stinger on a play that should have netted a safety...
So I'm thinking to myself... This ISN'T 'Troy's' week... & vowed to against them (whoever they played) in week 1...
CLEMSON (for 1 unit)
The 'spy' says: The public is taking CLEMSON; 58%
TV: ESPN3.com, PARTLY SUNNY, SOUTHEAST WIND 5-10. KICKOFF TEMP 91, HEAT INDEX 96
CLEMSON 43 - TROY 19 (correct)
So I'm thinking to myself... This ISN'T 'Troy's' week... & vowed to against them (whoever they played) in week 1...
CLEMSON (for 1 unit)
The 'spy' says: The public is taking CLEMSON; 58%
TV: ESPN3.com, PARTLY SUNNY, SOUTHEAST WIND 5-10. KICKOFF TEMP 91, HEAT INDEX 96
CLEMSON 43 - TROY 19 (correct)
James Madison knocked off Virginia Tech last year in Blacksburg... It tells me one thing... This is a little squad that 'lives' for the one game a year it can call its SuperBowl... Going in & giving hell to an ACC team that thinks this is a practice game... I might not trust this theory to an experienced coach, but Frank Beamer (Va Tech) is about the most experienced out there, & if it can happen to him, it can easily happen to a 'Butch Davis-less' UNC team that can't even communicate between the athletic directors office & the playing field...
JAMES MADISON for (1 unit)
The 'spy' says: The public is taking NORTH CAROLINA; 67%
TV: Raycom Sports, DTV: 642 PARTLY SUNNY, SOUTHEAST WIND 4-9. KICKOFF TEMP 89, HEAT INDEX 94
NORTH CAROLINA 42 - JAMES MADISON 10 (incorrect)
JAMES MADISON for (1 unit)
The 'spy' says: The public is taking NORTH CAROLINA; 67%
TV: Raycom Sports, DTV: 642 PARTLY SUNNY, SOUTHEAST WIND 4-9. KICKOFF TEMP 89, HEAT INDEX 94
NORTH CAROLINA 42 - JAMES MADISON 10 (incorrect)
#5 Boise State Broncos (-3) vs. #19 Georgia Bulldogs (8:00 PM)
(@Georgia Dome)
(@Georgia Dome)
Boise State is returning 11 starters from last year... They know the score in Boise... WIN EVERY GAME - ANYWHERE... It's as simple as that... I'm not convinced that Georgia can win without AJ Green in the line-up... After they convince me (& after Boise State proves to me that they have morphed into Colorado State)... I gotta side with the Broncos here (& flip the bird to all the SEC 'elitists')...
UPDATE: I'm dropping this down to a (1 unit pick) due to the following - BREAKING NEWS -
I'm still going with the Broncos as my play. The last I checked, AJ Green was playing for the Cincinnati Bengals... :-)
BOISE STATE for (1 unit)
The 'spy' says: The public is taking BOISE STATE; 52%
DOME
BOISE STATE 35 - GEORGIA 21 (correct)
UPDATE: I'm dropping this down to a (1 unit pick) due to the following - BREAKING NEWS -
I'm still going with the Broncos as my play. The last I checked, AJ Green was playing for the Cincinnati Bengals... :-)
BOISE STATE for (1 unit)
The 'spy' says: The public is taking BOISE STATE; 52%
DOME
BOISE STATE 35 - GEORGIA 21 (correct)
I'm still pissed off that I took Oregon in the BCS title game last year (for 5 units) & lost... I'm NOT holding that strike against Oregon... It's just that... The game was WEIRD (& I'm still trying to figure out how Oregon lost)...
More than anything, I'm pissed that it gane the SEC another whole offseason to act as 'elitists'...
Speaking of 'weird'... Les Miles (LSU) has said that this training camp has been the 'weirdest' he's ever experienced as a head coach... Les Miles is not a guy to play silly mind games, so if he said it, who am I to disagree?... I guess having half your team arrested in a silly bar fight counts as weird...
In any case... How can Oregon hope to do anything this year if it can't manage itself in this game? In the SEC, you always have a fallback... You can LOSE to a top ranked opponent, then wiggle through the SEC & climb back up the rankings (because, well, of that MURDER of a gauntlet in the SEC you have to go thru by beating Kentucky, Vanderbilt, & Ole Miss)...
OREGON for (2 units)...
The 'spy' says: The public is taking OREGON; 57%
DOME
LSU 40 - OREGON 27 (incorrect)
LSU 40 - OREGON 27 (incorrect)
other TOP 20 ACTION - or games of interest (week 1):
* Bold means that I'd tend to favor that team ATS (but won't suggest a play)
ATS = 'Against the Spread'
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(9/3/11)
Akron at #18 Ohio State
Kent State at #2 Alabama
Louisiana Monroe at #6 Florida State
Chattanooga at #10 Nebraska
San Jose St. at #7 Stanford
East Carolina at #12 South Carolina
Louisiana Lafayette at #9 Oklahoma State
Missouri State at #15 Arkansas
(9/4/11)
SMU at #8 Texas A&M
Marshall at #24 West Virginia
- see game comments above -
(9/5/11)
The "U" (Miami) at Maryland
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OTHER FEATURES COMING TO THIS BLOG
Go to Fantasy Sports Nation 'official' NFL 2011 Predictions page
Go to Fantasy Sports Nation 2011 'Week 1 NFL Picks' page - (to be activated on 9/7/11)
Go to Fantasy Sports Nation 'Week 1 NFL Fantasy [Start/Sit]' page - (to be activated on 9/8/11)
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* Bold means that I'd tend to favor that team ATS (but won't suggest a play)
ATS = 'Against the Spread'
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(9/3/11)
Akron at #18 Ohio State
Kent State at #2 Alabama
Louisiana Monroe at #6 Florida State
Chattanooga at #10 Nebraska
San Jose St. at #7 Stanford
East Carolina at #12 South Carolina
Louisiana Lafayette at #9 Oklahoma State
Missouri State at #15 Arkansas
(9/4/11)
SMU at #8 Texas A&M
Marshall at #24 West Virginia
- see game comments above -
(9/5/11)
The "U" (Miami) at Maryland
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OTHER FEATURES COMING TO THIS BLOG
Go to Fantasy Sports Nation 'official' NFL 2011 Predictions page
Go to Fantasy Sports Nation 2011 'Week 1 NFL Picks' page - (to be activated on 9/7/11)
Go to Fantasy Sports Nation 'Week 1 NFL Fantasy [Start/Sit]' page - (to be activated on 9/8/11)
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REGISTER NOW to compete in a FREE Fantasy Sports Nation competitive league (includes 'Survival Football, Salary Cap Football, & Pro Football 'Pick-em')
