Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Week 1 NCAA Picks

I'm going to start the 2013 season by going without the full graphics & game commentaries that you folks who have been here since 2011 remember... I'll begin to add those back in, time permitting...

What most people want, in the end, are the important picks [and why ~ if it happens to be unconventional]

Keep in mind the following things:

- On the sidebar [to the right], are a summary of my overall records...

- This site is for entertainment purposes only... I do not advocate sports wagering... NOT because it is illegal, but mostly because the average person simply doesn't realize how poorly the odds are stacked against them... The "juice", or "vig", is normally 10% [more for 'exotic' bets ~ such as teasers & parlays]... So my main reason for maintaining this site is simply to illustrate how hard it is for a conscientious person to 'BEAT THE SYSTEM'... My overall handicapping skills are pretty good... In spite of that, it's still very difficult for my 'mythical' bankrolls to stay AHEAD & 'BEAT THE HOUSE'... These picks should be for the entertainment value of "office pool" enthusiasts...

- Last years NCAA record [25-10], while good, was, in my opinion, a TOTAL aberration... I believe it is many degrees more difficult to handicap an NCAA game than an NFL game... The difference is that there is a larger slate of NCAA games than NFL games... This allows you to be somewhat more selective... I usually only choose between 3-4 NCAA games per week [out of a menu of more than 60 games]... By contrast ~ I'll offer a pick on each & every NFL game... The way I handle the 'skew' is that I'll never assign more than one unit to an NCAA game, & on the NFL games, I'll assign anywhere from "0" units to "5" units [or more if it's a pick of the month, or pick of the season, or has other unique characteristics]...


WEEK 1 NCAA PICKS (official)

CLEMSON (+2) vs. Georgia ~ 1 unit (correct)
ALABAMA (-19) vs. Virginia Tech ~ 1 unit (correct)
PENN ST. (-8) vs. Syracuse ~ 1 unit (incorrect)
FLORIDA (-23.5) vs. Toledo ~ 1 unit (incorrect)
CALIFORNIA (+5) vs. Northwestern ~ (incorrect)



*picks will appear as BOLD CAPS when ready


BALTIMORE (+7.5) at Denver ~ 3 units (incorrect)



Seattle at CAROLINA (+3.5) ~ 0 units (incorrect)
Kansas City at JACKSONVILLE (+3.5) ~ 0 units (incorrect)
Miami at CLEVELAND (pick) ~ 1 unit (incorrect)
Cincinnati at CHICAGO (-3) ~ 1 unit (incorrect)
MINNESOTA (+5) at Detroit ~ 0 units (incorrect)
Oakland at INDIANAPOLIS (-10.5) ~ 1 unit (incorrect)
NEW ENGLAND (-10.5) at Buffalo Bills ~ 1 unit (incorrect)
Tampa Bay at NEW YORK JETS (+3.5) ~ 2 units (correct)
Atlanta at NEW ORLEANS (-3) ~ 1 unit (correct)
Tennessee at PITTSBURGH (-7) ~ 0 units (incorrect)


GREEN BAY (+4.5) at San Francisco ~ 4 units (incorrect)
ARIZONA (+4.5) at St. Louis ~ 0 units (correct)


NEW YORK GIANTS (+3) at Dallas ~ 1 unit (incorrect)


PHILADELPHIA (+3.5) at Washington ~ 0 units (correct)
Houston at SAN DIEGO (+4) ~ 0 units (correct)


2013 NFL Picks (YTD regular season picks aggregate): 5-11-0
2013 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'unit picks' aggregate differential): (-8)
2013 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'exotics' differential): (+0)

2013 NFL Picks (week 1): 5-11-0

*ALL picks ATS [against the spread]

For those of you who are new to this site, my picks [& 'unit' assignment] are largely determined by the overall skew between how the public is doing versus the Las Vegas sportsbook sharps at any given moment...

Therefore, at the start of the season, there is no clear cut pattern [or rather, a pattern has not yet been established]...

Most of my 'unit picks' will be modest, & the overall theme is that I'm more likely to LAY double digit points [with heavily favored teams] towards the beginning of the season than I would do otherwise later on... Oftentimes, 'Vegas' doesn't mind whetting the appetite of gamblers early on in the season, only to trounce them later on when 'psychology' plays a more weighted role...

The only 'psychology' that usually exists in WEEK 1 could be listed as follows:

- peoples pre-concieved notions as to who the eventual SUPERBOWL teams may be
- some 'echo' effects from the prior season
- positive 'vibes' people get from teams who are populated with 'fantasy point stars'
- pre-season booms & busts
- offseason coaching & personnel changes

My "quick & dirty" guidebook [as to these dynamics], I'll list here...

- Many people thought the Ravens postseason run last year was 'lucky' & have noted the many personnel changes in the offseason... At the same time, many think that the Broncos were "unlucky" and are picking them to be a Superbowl team this year... Therefore, the Broncos are almost 'laying' double digits hosting the defending Superbowl Champions [who are the only NFL team to have made the post-season in the past 5 consecutive years ~ with a Super Bowl victory, three AFC Championships, & the most ROAD playoff wins in NFL history]...

Broncos, meanwhile, have a 38 year QB at the helm [off 3 neck surgeries], who lost his starting center in pre-season camp, lost their best pass rusher [to Baltimore], have their 2nd best defensive player on a 6 game suspension, & have an aging 'all pro' at cornerback... Just saying...

- The Seahawks are also in the category of pre-season "Super Bowl Picks"... But they're traveling to play in the East Coast time slot against one of the best individual defensive players in the NFL [Luke Keuchly]...

- Bengals are getting a field goal AWAY against the Bears, but the Bengals have an extremely shoddy record vs. +.500 teams... Chicago was 10-6 last year... It remains to be seen if they will be a +.500 team this year...

- Much has been said about the personnel changes of the New England Patriots this off season, [not the least of which was the Aaron Hernandez debacle & the exodus of Wes Welker to Denver]... However, the Patriots have quietly improved their defense & are playing a Bills team with a new coach, & the possibility of a starting QB that is an undrafted rookie... The Patriots aren't CHEAP here [laying double digits], but this is about as cheap as it comes...

- Darelle Revis is playing @ NY Jets... nuff said

- The Saints have Sean Payton back... nuff said

- The Green Bay Packers may be on a mission this year, while the 49ers are in the role of a horrible statistical line of 'Super Bowl' LOSERS, not covering the spread in WEEK 1 of the following year...